Simple prediction: 2024 bitcoin at 200.000 dollars

[Skybuck]

Data from https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Hmm even https://www.blockchain.com/prices/BTC seems to have "lost" historic date, most unfortunate indeed.

Unfortunately it doesn't go back far enough, so this will have to do for now:

may 2016 bitcoin worth about 400 to 500 dollars. This is during the halving time.
may 2020 bitcoin is worth 10000 dollars. 20x
may 2024 bitcoin is worth 10000 x 20 ? = 200.000 dollars ?!

(I believe the halving has something to do with it.)

I consider 200.000 dollar an absolute minimum, greed will probably make it go a bit higher, maybe 300.000 to maybe even 400.000 or 500.000 dollars =D

Bye for now,
  Skybuck =D

[Crptomagma]

The facts you provided are assumed to be well logical but it’s still based on predictions so we’re predicting based on some of the traits and advantage we see occurring in the market on a daily basis but it’s can result to the unpredictable so we need to wise in our everyday transactions with bitcoin.

[Dave1]

You might as well read @fillippone, Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity. This model is graphically on the dot still even as we closes $30k. And I would say that there are many skeptics or even laughing at this model, and should interest anyone who are into predicting the bitcoin's price.

[bekti3]

may 2016 bitcoin worth about 400 to 500 dollars. This is during the halving time.
may 2020 bitcoin is worth 10000 dollars. 20x
may 2024 bitcoin is worth 10000 x 20 ? = 200.000 dollars ?!

This is quite reasonable and can be used as research where in May there are always surprises like a gateway for bitcoin, even though it's the beginning of the halving which will be the same at the end of the year than in May. need to do research in this regard. There could be a correlation that is deliberately used as a benchmark. but even though I still can't say it in full. because I need a sufficient basis to support whatever speculation is said.

[pixie85]

may 2020 bitcoin is worth 10000 dollars. 20x
may 2024 bitcoin is worth 10000 x 20 ? = 200.000 dollars ?!

You're looking only at the last bull market. There's no rule saying that every next bull market has to look exactly like the one before it.

Compare 2013 and 2017. They are not the same! 2013 took us from about 150 to 1100 USD so about 7.5x and 2017 measured from the peak of the last bull market was 19x.

If this bull market was only to be 7x like 2013 we'd land at 140 thousand dollars but many people predict that it takes so much fiat money to break the 100 thousand barrier that it will take years.

[boyptc]

2024 is the next date for bitcoin's halving.

I'm also thinking that there would be a better price after that. But we're still 3 years and several months far from it. And from that period, a lot of things can happen on their way to the next halving.

Things that can affect bitcoin's price, positively or negatively.

[A62662]

It doesn't work like that. It's much easier to push something higher when it is cheap. When it is expensive like it is now, it gets much much harder to push it higher since it's already very high.

[milewilda]

It doesn't work like that. It's much easier to push something higher when it is cheap. When it is expensive like it is now, it gets much much harder to push it higher since it's already very high.

Simple line of response but this is actually on point where people should think this way that it can indeed go to high multipliers when its still cheap but when its expensive or on high price already then its really hard to attain those numbers. People cant just stop on giving out those kind of price where to consider on how long we've been staying low or on how many years.We did even struggle or the market to break the ATH.
How much more on presuming on higher numbers or digits? 2021 or 2024 .. reaching 100k or 200k or even 1M is nearly or can only happen in dreams.

[LUCKMCFLY]

It is not unreasonable, it can happen, 2024 is even further away, 2020 showed us many fundamentals that affected the world and the Bitcoin market and all markets in general, of course gold was the one that did not suffer much, but for now to make a prediction of that style until 2024 I would not dare to do it. But I think it will be much more than that price.

[TravelMug]

Why not?

But the exponential growth might slow down specially if we are going to touch 6 digits. Not unless all major companies in the US has stock pile bitcoin in the billions then we can have like $200k in just about four years. But we all know that there are companies not totally sold on bitcoin becoming a hedge and because it's volatility. But for sure, down the future 6 digits are going to be possible, specially how bitcoin are going to be scarce going into the next halving.

[thecodebear]

That seems reasonable. I actually think there is a good chance it is significantly higher than that, like possible twice that price. But it depends how the cycles go now. If we're gonna see the end of another 4 year cycle in a year with a huge crash and long bear market then in 2024 price may only just be pushing through $100k (again?) on it's way to a new peak in 2025. But if institutional investors pretty much rip the 4 year cycle apart because they just keep wading in gradually for years to come then we might just see a prolonged bull market in which case the price could easily be significantly higher than $200k in 2024. The 2024 $200k prediction kinda cuts those two possible paths (and of course there are others but those seem to be the most likely to me) in half so it's a good average of them at least.

[Taskford]

Data from https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Hmm even https://www.blockchain.com/prices/BTC seems to have "lost" historic date, most unfortunate indeed.

Unfortunately it doesn't go back far enough, so this will have to do for now:

may 2016 bitcoin worth about 400 to 500 dollars. This is during the halving time.
may 2020 bitcoin is worth 10000 dollars. 20x
may 2024 bitcoin is worth 10000 x 20 ? = 200.000 dollars ?!

(I believe the halving has something to do with it.)

I consider 200.000 dollar an absolute minimum, greed will probably make it go a bit higher, maybe 300.000 to maybe even 400.000 or 500.000 dollars =D

Bye for now,
  Skybuck =D

You cannot really count an accurate result on what will be the price in the future since it's kinda far to happen and for sure there are series of events that will contribute to the growth or either the price collapse of bitcoin so maybe we shouldn't think something almost unreal maybe we should let the faith decide if we can really see that.

[lepbagong]

What did the OP say in the simple details that determine that bitcoin could be $ 200K by 2024? let's see the halving ....

HALVING:
events when mining rewards are cut in half or represent a halving / 50% reduction in the supply of Bitcoin to the market. This is a standard rule on the blockchain to make Bitcoin even rarer. The halving occurs every 210,000 blocks or it can also be called the equivalent of 4 years.

First Halving: 28 November 2012
there was a very significant increase occurred in November 2013 with a value of $ 1,127

Second Halving: 9 July 2016
there was a more significant increase from the first halving in December 2017 with a value of $ 19,665

Third Halving: 12 May 2020
Will there be an increase equal to the first and second halving in the following year with adjacent months.
If it happened in November / December 2021 and the current price has reached over $ 29K, wouldn't there be any surprise that the price of bitcoin could be 2x or 3x the last price in 2017?
how about seeing% of the first and second !!! 19,665: 1.127 = 17x?

[pooya87]

You've already found the popular pattern sometimes referred to as "cycles" but the start time of each round that you chose sounds wrong to me. Each cycle doesn't start from halving but the halving falls nearly at the middle of each. And it does affect it because after all the production rate is cut by 50% each time but the effects aren't right away and they are not the main driving force for the rallies, the adoption is.

Consequently your 2024 is off the mark too. This Cycle began at the bottom about 2 years ago and it is possible that only one more year remains from this cycle meaning by the end of 2021 we will see the new bubble. So your prediction ($200k) should fall there although I personally think price will be at least twice that.

[Lucius]

Unfortunately it doesn't go back far enough, so this will have to do for now

If you mean data from before 2013, then logically you will not find them on those pages that follow the data from the moment they were founded. There are some pages where you can see earlier data, for example on this link Bitcoin Historical Price&Events

I consider 200.000 dollar an absolute minimum, greed will probably make it go a bit higher, maybe 300.000 to maybe even 400.000 or 500.000 dollars =D

Personally, I'm not greedy, and I'm more focused on this year, which will show whether this is just a price pumping by big investors today with the intention of dumping at some point - or whether the price will continue to rise regardless of the numbers. I think it's possible to reach at least $100 000 this year, which would be about $6000 per month up. 2024 is still quite a long way off, and I don't think anyone can know what awaits us in that period and how the world's political elites will look at the fact that trillions are pouring into Bitcoin.

[Timelord2067]

Interesting theory, however, you need to examine all halving events (not just the last one) before you can make assumptions concerning the apparent price in a little under four year's time.

Is it a linier climb? Have you factored in crashes? Exchange thefts flooding the market and pushing the price off of a cliff all need to be considered.

[Skybuck]

We are getting there !

Bitcoin as of 4 march 2024 at 65.000 dollars.

[STT]

This is like that rainbow chart thats been around a while, there are a range of possibilities and if you take the very extremes assuming BTC grows now as much as it had at some points in the past then sure giant prices are possible.  

  I disagree for a couple reasons, some take possibilities and call it probable the trajectory aligned with the past must account for the growth & sheer size of BTC now.   Dynamics of an oil tanker and a race car will vary, its bigger we have to take on board much slower progress even with alot of optimism I still dont think 100k this year and not 200k this  year or next.

The current action is very positive but we dont continually hold the accelerator to the floor and call that a destination, its far too aggressive.  The gains have to be digested in some way that is healthy and that will take more time then is clear right now.   Almost always turns out that way even though BTC does gain alot at certain times.


Some buyers now are future sellers, just a very simple take and quite true imo; at times it will even be the majority who buy then sell not too long after as theres a whole balance of outcomes.

[m2017]

This is like that rainbow chart

There is no other way to describe what is happening in the cryptomarket now.

assuming BTC grows now as much as it had at some points in the past then sure giant prices are possible.  

Until recently, I also didn't want to believe that such rapid growth would happen, but I will have to admit my erroneous forecasts in the face of the fact of what is happening.

"Simple prediction: 2024 bitcoin at 200.000 dollars" - in the title of this topic it looks crazy and it’s impossible to believe it, but I remember past cycles and many also could not imagine what heights bitcoin would reach. I want to say that exactly what no one expects happens, and in this vein, the price of $20k0 begins to appear as something quite achievable.

Dynamics of an oil tanker and a race car will vary, its bigger we have to take on board much slower progress even with alot of optimism I still dont think 100k this year and not 200k this  year or next.

Well, yes. Bitcoin should have become slow and clumsy due to his current size, but as you can see, it is still able to show his swiftness.

We don't think that $100k or $200k this year are possible, but our expectations are nothing before the irreversibility of existence.

The current action is very positive but we dont continually hold the accelerator to the floor and call that a destination, its far too aggressive.  The gains have to be digested in some way that is healthy and that will take more time then is clear right now.   Almost always turns out that way even though BTC does gain alot at certain times.

That is why a temporary drop and pullback are inevitable. This pump is slightly inflated like a bubble.

Some buyers now are future sellers, just a very simple take and quite true imo; at times it will even be the majority who buy then sell not too long after as theres a whole balance of outcomes.

We will have to come to terms with this too. This market has not ceased to be speculative.

[Zanab247]

Your prediction will surely come through op,  but it will not going to be this year if you have visited the market this year because the price is still around $63k, which it will be difficult for the price to jump to $200k in this year, well that is your prediction because anything can happen in the market for someone prediction to come to reality.

I would have agree with your prediction, assume you mentioned 2030 because I know that the price of BTC will hit $200k before the end of 2030 because the price has break into a new ATH this year, that made hodlers to rejoice because that is the first time seeing the price hit $73k over some years now.

If you want to be part of that amount you predicted in this trend, you can start saving some money from your working place so that you can buy when the bear run come and hodl till the price hit $200k before you can sell.