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Author Topic: This last rally Leg has been also bought by retail?  (Read 483 times)
Lucius
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January 12, 2021, 02:29:43 PM
Merited by fillippone (2)
 #21

Which retreat?
Ah, yeah, I just noticed it:
Quote
This is the "dump" you've all been freaking out about in the last few hours...
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https://twitter.com/HTDcris/status/1348580043723841537?s=20

When you look at the chart then it really seems almost insignificant, but people still pay much more attention to the numbers - a drop of $10 000 is for most a sign of panic, and believe me some still expect a correction of at least 50% or more. How to explain to someone that 2018 and 2021 have nothing in common and that we are still far from max ATH...



Can you also check on data with regards to the cause of dumping? Maybe after analyzing the data about it, we could foresee when it will go down, or something to that sense.

Maybe we can look for a reason in this "Bitcoin Crash Liquidates 262,344 Traders", and if I'm not mistaken something similar happened in March last year.

I'm not an expert, so let someone correct me if it's about different things - but the explanation for such a sudden drop may be just this :

A sell liquidation on BitMEX occurs when the market moves adversely against a long position (a bullish bet) and breaches the liquidation price – a predetermined limit. When that happens, the liquidation engine closes down the long position automatically.
Sell liquidations represent forced unwinding of long positions, while buy liquidations represent forced unwinding of short positions. While both long and short positions have been liquidated, more than 90 percent of the liquidations are of long positions. It indicates the leverage was heavily skewed to the bullish side.
A sudden price drop almost always results in a long squeeze, which in turn adds to the downward pressure around the cryptocurrency, leading to an exaggerated price drop.

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January 12, 2021, 03:19:40 PM
 #22

There is a big difference between retail and institutional and people mistake that. By retail usually what people mean is that "will you be able to go into amazon and buy something with bitcoin" type of stuff, as in people being able to buy things with bitcoin, as in "retail stores" and so forth and that is not the same as institutional investors because those are places like grayscale that buys billions of dollars worth of bitcoin instead.

So, people mistake what it is meant and they argue about the wrong stuff together, normally if you explained it to both of the parties that argue, that they are talking about different things, they would definitely make it a lot better and would figure out. I would say investors are in, all those wealthy ones, and they will keep coming in, but the online retail type of places, places where you can "spend" your bitcoin will not be around for a while.

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January 12, 2021, 09:40:20 PM
Merited by fillippone (2)
 #23

Excellent analysis and compilation of evidence. Well done.

Quote
What I mean is that: is it possible that the last leg in this rally hasn't been fueled entirely by the institutional, as the main narrative tends to convince us, but also there is a consistent inflow from retailers, which, without FOMOing, have definitely contributed to the rise in price in the last, say 70% leg up from 25K to 42K.

Certainly.

I do think that institutional forces cannot be overstated - they are still the main driver of demand for BTC in this rally, especially since they are not just trading BTC in this rally but actually committing to holding it for the long term.

But retail investors, especially those trading on leverage, can have a great impact on the market as well. What they offer is consistent, bite-sized demand - which arguably is just as important in the long run to BTC adoption.

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January 12, 2021, 11:19:11 PM
 #24

Maybe we can look for a reason in this "Bitcoin Crash Liquidates 262,344 Traders", and if I'm not mistaken something similar happened in March last year.
I believe that the reason for the crash in price last year is that a lot of people have been cashing out because of the pandemic that has happened. I'm not sure with the recent drop though.

I'm not an expert, so let someone correct me if it's about different things - but the explanation for such a sudden drop may be just this :
A lot of people are even betting for BTC to move up but it failed and having leverage liquidated them. There's no explanation in the article that explains that drop but basically, liquidation is what you defined here. The chart tells everything as to how humans act with their investments but it doesn't tell anywhere the reason behind them.

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January 14, 2021, 02:26:18 PM
 #25

Maybe we can look for a reason in this "Bitcoin Crash Liquidates 262,344 Traders", and if I'm not mistaken something similar happened in March last year.
I believe that the reason for the crash in price last year is that a lot of people have been cashing out because of the pandemic that has happened. I'm not sure with the recent drop though.
That is exactly right, the crash due to pandemic was in everything in the world. The price of stocks went down like crazy, fiat became worthless all of a sudden because nobody had it anymore but at the same time since nobody had it, it was hard to sell things so people increased their prices to make due, the price of gold decreased like crazy, and oil price was just a joke, at some point people didn't had enough storage to get all the oil in the world, it was like 1% of the price it used to be, that crazy.

In that period bitcoin price crashed too, but it wasn't even that bad, it was around 9k and it dropped to under 4k for a bit and increased to 5k in less than a week, so it wasn't even a 50% drop honestly. So the pandemic did made everything go down a lot, but over time everything increased back to where it suppose to be once again in few months.

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January 14, 2021, 04:46:10 PM
 #26

Excellent analysis and compilation of evidence. Well done.

Quote
What I mean is that: is it possible that the last leg in this rally hasn't been fueled entirely by the institutional, as the main narrative tends to convince us, but also there is a consistent inflow from retailers, which, without FOMOing, have definitely contributed to the rise in price in the last, say 70% leg up from 25K to 42K.

Certainly.

I do think that institutional forces cannot be overstated - they are still the main driver of demand for BTC in this rally, especially since they are not just trading BTC in this rally but actually committing to holding it for the long term.

But retail investors, especially those trading on leverage, can have a great impact on the market as well. What they offer is consistent, bite-sized demand - which arguably is just as important in the long run to BTC adoption.
Great point, I have forgotten that in fact using leverage is very popular in this market and as such retail investors can exercise a great deal of influence over the market as well because not only they are trading with an amount of capital many times higher than what they could do otherwise, they can buy more bitcoin reducing its supply even further, if anything I think this explains the recent crash, most likely a whale sold some of their coins and this was enough to reduce the price somewhat then those that used the most leverage received margin calls making the price to go down even further and creating a domino effect in the process.

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January 15, 2021, 12:04:53 AM
 #27

Grayscale has just resumed buying Bitcoins , this is going to help the rhetoric of institutional buying.
Of course, I hope it is a sort of rotation between the various category of Bitcoin buyers: institutional, then retails, and institutional again!

Liquidity has been ample on the exchanges, so I hope the organic growth can go on.


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January 15, 2021, 12:12:08 AM
Merited by fillippone (2)
 #28

What can be extracted from this is that as more and more retailers adapt to this, without FOMOing, we could stay in this 25k to 45k range for a long time. That's what I think could happen, especially as seen in the current events and happenings.

As long as miners and HODLers don't sell their BTC, it will definitely drive up the price even more. That's if the demand is still there. Spot on analysis. Cheesy
That would be a pretty sweet deal, sign me up! In all seriousness, I'm usually quite publicly pessimistic about Bitcoins short term value, but more optimistic about its future worth. However, this is the first time in a long while, that I'm starting to believe that Bitcoin might not give too much up on its current price. I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you, reaching for the 45k, but I think a 25-30k is definitely something I can get behind. 


Yeah, somehow I have a feeling miners aren't exactly holding onto that many of their mined coins--true, some of them could be very bullish on bitcoin and could be waiting for an even higher price to sell at, but these big mining farms are businesses.  They're not really in business to gamble on bitcoin's price like that (that's my guess anyway).

I guess whatever way you look at it they would be taking a risk. Although, you would assume that mining companies would be in it for the long term, and therefore might even benefit form offloading their earnings frequently to try, and get more capital to invest either in more Bitcoin, or in equipment to increase their profit in the long run. It would be a hard decision to make, and without knowing the calculations, I'm not sure which would yield more results.


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January 15, 2021, 07:57:00 AM
 #29

Grayscale has just resumed buying Bitcoins , this is going to help the rhetoric of institutional buying.
Of course, I hope it is a sort of rotation between the various category of Bitcoin buyers: institutional, then retails, and institutional again!

Liquidity has been ample on the exchanges, so I hope the organic growth can go on.



If the new US President Joe Biden announces new measures to stimulate the US economy (i.e. continue to issue US dollars), then the bitcoin price will continue to rise. 

In any case, the main task of the government is to prevent hyperinflation.  Thus, the new dollars will not be allowed into the consumer market.  Instead, the stock market will rise and Bitcoin will rise. 

Unlike stocks, Bitcoin has no limits to further growth.  Bitcoin can be worth $ 50,000, it can be worth $ 100,000 or $ 500,000.

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January 15, 2021, 08:49:54 AM
 #30




If the new US President Joe Biden announces new measures to stimulate the US economy (i.e. continue to issue US dollars), then the bitcoin price will continue to rise. 

In any case, the main task of the government is to prevent hyperinflation.  Thus, the new dollars will not be allowed into the consumer market.  Instead, the stock market will rise and Bitcoin will rise. 

Unlike stocks, Bitcoin has no limits to further growth.  Bitcoin can be worth $ 50,000, it can be worth $ 100,000 or $ 500,000.


I fully agree with you, a strong dollar will increase bitcoin prices as well. Overall the upside potential of bitcoins is so much higher than for stocks, bonds or any other financial asset. The only thing I would compare to the recent bitcoin rally are maybe Stock Options, but with options you have a lot of risk to not end up in the money and then they are just worthless. As for bitcoins you will always have these coins even if there is a price drop.

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January 15, 2021, 09:52:42 AM
 #31




If the new US President Joe Biden announces new measures to stimulate the US economy (i.e. continue to issue US dollars), then the bitcoin price will continue to rise. 

In any case, the main task of the government is to prevent hyperinflation.  Thus, the new dollars will not be allowed into the consumer market.  Instead, the stock market will rise and Bitcoin will rise. 

Unlike stocks, Bitcoin has no limits to further growth.  Bitcoin can be worth $ 50,000, it can be worth $ 100,000 or $ 500,000.


I fully agree with you, a strong dollar will increase bitcoin prices as well. Overall the upside potential of bitcoins is so much higher than for stocks, bonds or any other financial asset. The only thing I would compare to the recent bitcoin rally are maybe Stock Options, but with options you have a lot of risk to not end up in the money and then they are just worthless. As for bitcoins you will always have these coins even if there is a price drop.

Yes, assuming a significant depreciation of the US dollar and its withdrawal from monetary circulation, then Bitcoin can be effectively used as a currency. 

This makes Bitcoin a more promising investment than stocks, bonds, etc. For Bitcoin, the only catastrophe will be the complete destruction of the Internet's structure and serious problems with energy supply. 

The main threat to Bitcoin is effectively functioning central bank currencies (CBDC).  A complete rejection of cash, a system of social ratings, reputation tokens, complete control over the lives of the inhabitants of the Earth can make owning bitcoin meaningless. 

However, this is a very pessimistic scenario.

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January 15, 2021, 10:18:16 AM
 #32

I have a feeling we are at the early 2017 again, the price is likely to move between $25k to $40k for 3 months for this to be the new floor respected by the market before we pump to $50k and above. The money buying and pumping the price is not retail money, agreed some of them might have bought this pump but for me the mega pump is coming and my take is that we will likely touch $250k which would be the top

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January 16, 2021, 08:42:59 AM
 #33

What can be extracted from this is that as more and more retailers adapt to this, without FOMOing, we could stay in this 25k to 45k range for a long time. That's what I think could happen, especially as seen in the current events and happenings.

As long as miners and HODLers don't sell their BTC, it will definitely drive up the price even more. That's if the demand is still there. Spot on analysis. Cheesy
That would be a pretty sweet deal, sign me up! In all seriousness, I'm usually quite publicly pessimistic about Bitcoins short term value, but more optimistic about its future worth. However, this is the first time in a long while, that I'm starting to believe that Bitcoin might not give too much up on its current price. I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you, reaching for the 45k, but I think a 25-30k is definitely something I can get behind. 
If you are optimistic about the future and pessimistic about the short term, you probably realize that there are times when it should go up in the short term as well Cheesy. I mean if you are optimistic about the future that means it will go up in the future according to you, that "future" should come one day and it should go up one day and that Is about right now.

I believe as long as these huge corporations keep investing billions of dollars into bitcoin, there should not be a shock to anyone that it will definitely go up in value and stay there as well. There are companies accepting bitcoin more and more, and there are corporations spending more to buy every day, that Is why many people think bitcoin will not go down a lot, sure it could have some falls we have seen 40k to 32k for example, but that "crash" may not come up again.

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January 16, 2021, 12:36:54 PM
 #34

I have a feeling we are at the early 2017 again, the price is likely to move between $25k to $40k for 3 months for this to be the new floor respected by the market before we pump to $50k and above. The money buying and pumping the price is not retail money, agreed some of them might have bought this pump but for me the mega pump is coming and my take is that we will likely touch $250k which would be the top

Yes, I agree with you.  

Many expect the bitcoin price to hit $ 100,000.  Therefore, this scenario is unlikely.  The market almost always plays against the crowd.  

A bear market is now also unlikely.  We see that the bitcoin price does not fall below $ 30 thousand and is confidently holding at the level of $ 35 thousand.  

This means that the price of bitcoins will reach levels well above the normal $ 100,000.  Soon enough, we'll see Bitcoin at $ 250,000 - $ 300,000.  

The rise in the price of Bitcoin will be accompanied by serious shocks.  Our world will change dramatically.

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January 17, 2021, 11:40:53 AM
 #35

It is interesting to see the charts around 2012-13, 2016-17 ans 2020-21. See the stock to flow chart in black feature, it clearly states the period when bitcoin halving happened after which bitcoin has been raised both in the price and market cap very swiftly and like a straight wall. Best to notice huge amount of USD inflow happens during the year end and its multi-fold just before and after the halving happens. I am going to take the reference of this for my next investment plan during halving which is around 2024.

Whether the last leg is bough by retail or large pvt corporation for the investor like me they are big bone and motivation. Number one thing they will not allow the bitcoin market cap to fall down so yeah the whole analysis is cool.

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March 15, 2021, 07:48:31 PM
 #36

Maybe we are now on a different  leg than the one I was referring to in the OP, but apparently retail still play a good part in the price action:

Retail Bitcoin Traders Rival Wall Street Buyers as Mania Builds

Quote

The cryptocurrency market’s little guys are going toe-to-toe with the big banks as Bitcoin continues to surge to new highs, data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. suggest.





I will try to put my hands on that report as well and share here on the forum. Stay tuned.

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March 15, 2021, 11:39:43 PM
Merited by fillippone (2)
 #37

It is interesting to see the charts around 2012-13, 2016-17 ans 2020-21. See the stock to flow chart in black feature, it clearly states the period when bitcoin halving happened after which bitcoin has been raised both in the price and market cap very swiftly and like a straight wall. Best to notice huge amount of USD inflow happens during the year end and its multi-fold just before and after the halving happens. I am going to take the reference of this for my next investment plan during halving which is around 2024.
Whether the last leg is bough by retail or large pvt corporation for the investor like me they are big bone and motivation. Number one thing they will not allow the bitcoin market cap to fall down so yeah the whole analysis is cool.
I am not sure that the tools of conventional market analysis are applicable to bitcoin due to the fact that the market is new and immature and the influence of many additional factors that do not and cannot have an impact in other market sectors. We can and should draw parallels with previous periods, because we need to focus on something, but no one will be surprised if everything happens contrary to previous experience Wink Personally, I'm not surprised by anything and I'm ready for anything, because it's bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
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March 21, 2021, 07:41:13 PM
 #38

Institutions has contributed to the increase indeed, but whether institutions or no institutions, we are still going to find the market heading towards the high price as it did, the only thing is that it’s going to take time for us to reach there, but it’s definitely going to reach there. I would have even preferred that there are more of retail investors than we have all these big institutions; that way the coins will be more distributed than one institution holding a bunch of it.

But anyway, it is good that we now have lots of institutions, there are still pros to every cons, in lots of ways they have contributed in the level of trust people have in this.




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March 22, 2021, 11:30:58 AM
 #39

Interesting numbers, who would say that retail lead compared to institutions in Q1 2021, but all thanks to 3 times less investment when it comes to funds if we compare Q4 2020 with Q1 2021. I have to admit that this definitely breaks the theories that ordinary people stopped buying BTC because of its high price, obviously in this case we can apply the old saying "Vires in numeris".

We can assume that the share of retail will now increase even more due to stimulus checks, of course assuming that part of these funds will spill over into crypto as has been the case in the past.

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March 22, 2021, 02:10:59 PM
 #40


I would have even preferred that there are more of retail investors than we have all these big institutions; that way the coins will be more distributed than one institution holding a bunch of it.

But anyway, it is good that we now have lots of institutions, there are still pros to every cons, in lots of ways they have contributed in the level of trust people have in this.

I feel your reason but your last paragraph has answered it and that is better for the market and bitcoin. The institutional investors are the reason price is high making up the high cryptocurrency volume. And we have not heard the bubble kind of discussion about bitcoin because the market is getting less unstable unlike 2017 when it was majorly buy and dump investors mainly for gains. Confidence has been increased and more huge buyers are looking to hodl and that will push price further higher because of limited availability.

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