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Author Topic: The higher BTC goes, the bigger the risk/reward ratio and the less buyers enter  (Read 502 times)
Tekunda
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January 12, 2021, 04:06:13 PM
Last edit: January 12, 2021, 04:32:09 PM by Tekunda
 #1

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
From there it will need to rise another 100k in order to double again. I don't say this is not a good investment, but first of all crypto owners are spoiled, until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.
For hodlers who are in from the very beginning, it won't matter much probably, but where will btc find new buyers when it has reached 100k and needs to go up another 100k in order to double again in price?
And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station.
Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.
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January 12, 2021, 04:08:45 PM
Merited by Swordsoffreedom (1)
 #2

I strongly believe it will reach 1 Million a coin because:

1. Gold will become obsolete (too hard to move around, to transaction and its supply grows 2% each year)
2. BTC is limited in supply (~15 M active coins for the whole world is nothing!)
3. The future is crypto money, we won't be living in ice age forever

The banks are scary like... they will do everything they can to stop it, but will fail.

1 BTC = 1 BTC
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January 12, 2021, 06:04:38 PM
 #3

People would hold Satoshi for years in the hope that it would reach million dollars mark. Eventually they would die of old age with a lost password key.
As Bitcoin reaches the value of a Trillon dollar , we are gonna see a swing of hundred billions in a day —- which is similar in size of small to mid size country’s GDP. It’s incredible.
I think There will be lows and highs. Take the advantage to buy more or add more if it's going down.

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January 12, 2021, 11:09:56 PM
 #4

Maybe what you mean is that  as the price increases in the future, the exponential growth will slow down, which is true. However, what makes the argument is that bitcoin is going to be scarce as well, that's why it is the most sought asset in crypto because of this one. Yes, the growth might stall, but with more people looking to buy at whatever price it is, I doubt that there are less buyers that are going to enter, on the contrary it might balloon as everyone is looking to make bigger profits in the future.

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January 13, 2021, 07:04:03 AM
 #5

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
Bitcoin's previous ATH was $20k and double that is $40k which was reached. Double that is $80k which will be reached too.

Quote
until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
10x, 20x, rises are bigger than double (2x) rises Cheesy

Quote
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.
no it won't be bigger. If you have $1 worth of bitcoin when it goes from $10 to $20 you make the same amount of profit as when it goes from $1000 to $2000 or $40,000 to $80,000.
Same with drops. You would have lost the same amount of money when price fell from $1200 to $150 or from $20,000 to $3,200 (87% versus 84%) and when it falls from $500,000 to $100,000 (80%).

Quote
And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station.
Irrational people will always act the same exact way, they will continue panic selling and panic buying no matter what the price is. The only thing that will change is the size of the market ergo their effects on the price.

Quote
Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.
Reaching $1 million will also be slow just like all the previous targets. There is no reason to show any signs or even reaching it quickly. It is all a matter of adoption and adoption happen slowly.

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January 14, 2021, 09:26:16 AM
 #6

I agree with you, because this is not just a guess-it is information that has been confirmed by many experts and actually makes sense. But it seems to me that the biggest issue is precisely the time frame. And no one can say exactly when this is going to happen and what potential will meet our expectations 100%. And yet in theory it is possible to imagine such a situation - that bitcoin at some very unexpected moment, right on the peak can lose its value and collapse sharply at the very moment when people will be celebrating their profits. I do not fully believe and understand such independence of bitcoin and I think that in time it may present not only pleasant surprises.
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January 14, 2021, 10:04:30 AM
 #7

Especially the less likely more people will buy (well individual buyers so to speak) i know institutions and big corporations won't have problem buying even when the price reaches a new highs, assuming btc is now trading at $100k, not many people will be interested in buying at that price because they may feel it will be hard to get a good return of investment, but knowing the capability of btc, it is very likely to see x2, only those who have the market experience will know this, new joiners won't understand it so.
What i sometimes pounder about most is, at what point will btc price stop increasing? because we keep seeing different predictions and the possibilities of btc to reach such predictions.


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January 14, 2021, 11:02:10 AM
 #8

Theoretically yes a holders will hold his coins and not sell it until the price reach high amount, so he will not buy it.

But the fact is many peoples are still buy and sell Bitcoin, look how high the volume today right now $65,039,919,084 [1] it mean even Bitcoin price become higher, many buyers is still entering the market. Most of the market volume is from the traders.


[1] https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/markets/


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January 14, 2021, 11:04:56 AM
 #9

I'm pretty sure most of the buyers who buy BTC, for now, are expecting it to be the strongest asset and less volatile (compared to other cryptos), which is good for mid-term and long-term investment. What most people are waiting to happen is the alt season where the 20x-50x that you are saying for is gonna happen.


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January 14, 2021, 11:07:13 AM
 #10

Bitcoin is definitely a better option in almost all cases. Its digital nature enforces a limited supply, fungibility, high divisibility, and great portability.

Moreover, some experts consider BTC to have an even lower inflation rate due to its cyclic reward halving which makes it even better than gold for long-term investors.
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January 14, 2021, 11:10:29 AM
 #11

but where will btc find new buyers when it has reached 100k and needs to go up another 100k in order to double again in price?

I guess that there is a misunderstanding on how human psychology works.

The faster the price grows, the more the news advertising this attracting more new buyers, many of them ignoring the risks.
Of course, many of them will sell lower than they've bought when the FOMO bubble bursts, but the ones with patience and who have invested money they did afford to lose will be happy and wise when the next cycle will go on.

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January 14, 2021, 12:15:32 PM
 #12

Is this your conclusion about the price going higher? I think you're wrong because as soon as the price is rising people are curious and wanted to join the trend. You can ask google for that, as soon as somethings going on with the market the people often search about Bitcoin or the crypto industry. The only problem with those people is their lack of understanding and some of them jump to conclusions after they saw some videos about Bitcoin. the truth if the matter is, they need lots of time to study, and as soon as they understand what's really going on with the market most of those people will invest as you can see the result are shown to you right now in the crypto market.

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January 14, 2021, 12:25:46 PM
 #13

The root reason to invest is profit that is taken as percent of gains from original capital.

It does not make sense to say it is not profitable or feasible to invest in bitcoin. Bitcoin has many incremental units and when you invest, you don't have to mandatarily invest in Bitcoin. You can invest 0.1 Bitcoin, 0.01 bitcoin.

The magic for investment in bitcoin is in long run, you will have very less risk than altcoin investment. I believe that bitcoin will increase in price after each 4 year but altcoins can die after 4 years. With altcoins, you will even not have opportunity to get your capital back. In worst altcoins, worst market, you will lose all.

.
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January 14, 2021, 12:33:59 PM
 #14

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
From there it will need to rise another 100k in order to double again. I don't say this is not a good investment, but first of all crypto owners are spoiled, until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.
For hodlers who are in from the very beginning, it won't matter much probably, but where will btc find new buyers when it has reached 100k and needs to go up another 100k in order to double again in price?
And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station.
Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.
I agree but we also have to accept the fact that even the price of Bitcoin reaches $100,000 buyers will still acquire some fractions depending on how much they are willing to invest no matter how much the price is because that is the spirit of being a Bitcoin hodler/investor and FOMO will still exist.



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January 14, 2021, 01:06:53 PM
 #15

What creates value is the extent to which people are willing to use it because it has a real benefit in itself or what can be used from it.
Bitcoin provided a different model from many central financial solutions, so it is easy to distinguish that these currencies have a value and it does not matter how much that value is as long as Bitcoin can be divided into small parts.
Satoshi is now less than the dollar 0.00038283 and therefore we still have a lot of time to be afraid of the dollar's value.





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January 14, 2021, 01:28:42 PM
 #16

The volatile nature of Bitcoin has made the BTC investors really greedy. Grin
Is it mandatory for the Bitcoin price to double every now and then?I don't think so.
I think that the risk/reward ratio is pretty much the same,but most of the investors will have to buy smaller fractions of a Bitcoin.
It's true that there are less buyers,who want to buy at a ATH price,maybe that's why the price won't reach 50K USD anytime soon.


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January 14, 2021, 02:13:04 PM
 #17

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
From there it will need to rise another 100k in order to double again. I don't say this is not a good investment, but first of all crypto owners are spoiled, until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.

Dont get too concerned about the "X" factor [x10, x25, x50].
Overall Bitcoin is going to grow and doubling your investment is always special.
If you are a Hodler there is no risk, Satoshi's or Bitcoin quantities in your wallet
will always remain the same regardless of whether the $ value rises or falls.

And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station. 

You could have said when Bitcoin was valued at $1000 that for many people the
train had left the station, the same when it was at $15000.

What about all the price points in the last month, $20k, $30k, $40 - the train is
still at the station. ok you might not be able to get a seat in the front carriage
but there are definitely seats in the carriages further back!


Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.

Very quickly? time is not an issue, it doesnt have to create proof, we dont need
proof. Looking for proof will be the difference on either buying at $38000 or
$48000 or higher. Act Now!


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January 14, 2021, 03:20:11 PM
 #18

Isn't increasing buyers the reason bitcoin recently topped out at USD40K+? Rising price means there are more buyers than sellers.

I read in an article that many institutions hopped on the bandwagon and played a major part in the notorious uptrend. That's something we can consider unprecedented because, for the longest time, bitcoin's price is almost totally reliant on individual buyers.

This could mean that institutions are just beginning to trust bitcoin--and it's a good thing. It could also mean we can expect more of them to invest and the existing ones to invest more.

So, I agree with you that it will reach 100K, but I don't agree that there will be fewer buyers from that point onwards.

Institutions are just warming up and BTC's price already reached USD40K. Imagine what can happen if they get serious and more of them join in.
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January 14, 2021, 03:45:20 PM
Last edit: January 14, 2021, 04:43:44 PM by 20kevin20
 #19

Isn't increasing buyers the reason bitcoin recently topped out at USD40K+? Rising price means there are more buyers than sellers.
Not necessarily. There is a larger amount of BTC bought than sold, but it doesn't mean there are more or new participants in the trading sessiom than before. If I had a million bucks, I could create a big fuss in the market within seconds. It could be institutional investors just pumping millions into the market while the number of traders is decreasing.

EDIT: there doesn't even have to be more BTC sold than bought. Liquidity is part of the game as well. If someone comes in and sells a thousand BTC, the liquidity could make it easier to pump the market with less than what was sold earlier.

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January 14, 2021, 03:48:19 PM
 #20

people can have an advantage from bitcoin even if price will not double each time.
just because there is an intrinsic advantage to store something with "limite" supply despite collect FIAT money (that has by nature a tendency to become inflactive).
Ok probably we will not see again a big spike like the past, but it will be the same something valuable and useful as a store of value.

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