The higher BTC goes, the bigger the risk/reward ratio and the less buyers enter

[ModelT]

Apologies if this has already been asked, but if BTC and i.e. NANO both see their market caps increase $10 billion in the next year, what happens to each of their prices?

altcoins, specially those with terrible supply amounts are never going up in price over the long run. they can only hope for some pumps that could increase their price in short term.

Most people will get this wrong because they suck at math  Huh or don't fully understand bitcoin.

you don't have to understand bitcoin to know how market cap works!
a shitcoin with a massive supply will have a high market cap regardless of it being dumped. and when bitcoin rises and the altcoin dumps its market cap measured in USD sometimes shows increase.

as more people hold more and more of an asset, the pool of new buyers gets smaller and the pool of potential sellers increases (but that is no guarantee that people buy or sell).

price rise doesn't always need "new" investors. it needs new money. that money could be coming from the old investors investing more money in.

I think you missed my point.


The supply of BTC is growing faster than NANO. If people decided to move away from a coin with a growing supply (naturally inflationary assuming demand stays constant), like BTC, into a coin that has no future supply growth, like NANO...its not the total number of coins that is important, it is how fast the supply is growing (or not growing) that gives a DIGITAL currency actual scarcity value (while perception and demand considerations play a big role on the other side of the supply/demand equations).  

[roosbit]

I agree with what you said, but for now there are still many chances of the price being able to do 2X or 6X because there are still not many super rich people buying bitcoin and advertising

Some rich people have jumped on this new found digital gold and others like Mr Bill Gates have clearly shown no interest in it, despite knowing about the digital currency...its all up to them , maybe they don't understand crypto but with time as more institutions endorse crypto I think this is when new money will be pumped in from individuals and institutional money to push price up.

[eaLiTy]

Some rich people have jumped on this new found digital gold and others like Mr Bill Gates have clearly shown no interest in it, despite knowing about the digital currency...its all up to them , maybe they don't understand crypto but with time as more institutions endorse crypto I think this is when new money will be pumped in from individuals and institutional money to push price up.

Bill Gates made his money through innovation and if he made money investing in the stock market then it would have been a different story, so you cannot expect people like that to invest heavily. The major funds are invested by financial institutions who always identify the smart market to reap the profit and so is the reason billions are invested even when the price is soaring at an all time high valuation.

[AakZaki]

Bill Gates made his money through innovation and if he made money investing in the stock market then it would have been a different story, so you cannot expect people like that to invest heavily. The major funds are invested by financial institutions who always identify the smart market to reap the profit and so is the reason billions are invested even when the price is soaring at an all time high valuation.

several large companies such as Tesla have started to adopt bitcoin and many institutions are entering into bitcoin to invest. The higher the bitcoin price, the higher the risk ratio that will occur. Currently Bitcoin price is able to hit a high of $ 60k and will probably continue at $ 100k. the more people understand bitcoin and its benefits, the more funds will come in and make bitcoin rise. The risk will indeed be higher because the price fluctuates very quickly.

[South Park]

If they open their minds about bitcoin's investment, they will not think about it too late to invest in bitcoin because they still have time to start buying bitcoin. If they know that they can buy fractions by a fraction of bitcoin, they will try to use the money they do not use for anything, and they will hold it after they finish buying bitcoin.

Waiting for the dropping of the price will always recommend for people who want to buy bitcoin because that can reduce their risk from fluctuating the bitcoin price. Perhaps, they need to learn more about the bitcoin investment side before buying bitcoin.

What happens is that many people think it is too late because once they find out that you could have bought bitcoin for less than a dollar at the beginning of its life and now you need to pay 55k they are reluctant to do it, they do not understand that such a low price does not matter anymore because we are never going to see it again, what matters is its current price and what price it can reach in the future and under that perspective bitcoin is still trading at a relatively cheap price.

[ibbaramichaelx1]

There is a growing movement — emerging from the blockchain and cryptocurrency world — to build new internet services that combine the power of the modern world. I am new to the world of finances and crypto investing but am steadily following the collaboration of AVAX and Blocknet. It's where the Internet of finance meets the internet of blockchains...

And yeah, on top of your question. I am also thinking if institutions and billionaires do keep their produced bitcoin or sell it immediately? And how much bitcoin they have? How much it costs them to produce 1 bitcoin? What's their revenue model? Maybe they keep their produced bitcoin but they do pay salaries with it. 

[Argoo]

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
From there it will need to rise another 100k in order to double again. I don't say this is not a good investment, but first of all crypto owners are spoiled, until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.
For hodlers who are in from the very beginning, it won't matter much probably, but where will btc find new buyers when it has reached 100k and needs to go up another 100k in order to double again in price?
And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station.
Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.

This reasoning has a certain meaning. Indeed, now the price of bitcoin is quite high, over $ 55,000. Further increases in its price will be more difficult, and the risk for bitcoin holders will be more and more. People will worry about the large amounts invested in bitcoin, and with large price fluctuations, panic is likely. It will largely depend on how large the volatility of the bitcoin price will be, both this year and in the next few years. With high price volatility, the fear of bitcoin holders will be much higher. This will hinder its further price growth.

[Sanugarid]

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
From there it will need to rise another 100k in order to double again. I don't say this is not a good investment, but first of all crypto owners are spoiled, until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.
For hodlers who are in from the very beginning, it won't matter much probably, but where will btc find new buyers when it has reached 100k and needs to go up another 100k in order to double again in price?
And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station.
Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.

In my opinion, BTC reaching its 1 Million USD mark is enough for me and no one really knows if it will be worth a million USD in the future. You could still be profitable in BTC even if it reaches the 100k mark and depends on the risk management of the holder.

[acener]

Of course it would be slower when we are already at a high price and almost everyone is already on board.
But that doesn't mean that we wouldn't see it go higher we only have limited supply so the potential growth would continue.

[Lorence.xD]

Of course it would be slower when we are already at a high price and almost everyone is already on board.
But that doesn't mean that we wouldn't see it go higher we only have limited supply so the potential growth would continue.

Not everyone is on board yet, there are still a lot of people around the world that doesn't know about it, I would say that we are still on the point where it is getting introduced in the mainstream and it is doing well.

[Ozero]

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
From there it will need to rise another 100k in order to double again. I don't say this is not a good investment, but first of all crypto owners are spoiled, until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.
For hodlers who are in from the very beginning, it won't matter much probably, but where will btc find new buyers when it has reached 100k and needs to go up another 100k in order to double again in price?
And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station.
Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.

Yes, these are good questions, which I have thought about many times. I also believe that as the price of bitcoin rises, it will become more difficult to find new investors at the higher price. If Bitcoin reaches a price of one hundred thousand dollars or more, the risk of its price fall and its price volatility will also increase significantly.
It seems to me that investing in potential altcoins with a lower price will then already be much more profitable. Well, maybe soon we will see how it will be in practice.

[Gheka]

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
From there it will need to rise another 100k in order to double again. I don't say this is not a good investment, but first of all crypto owners are spoiled, until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.
For hodlers who are in from the very beginning, it won't matter much probably, but where will btc find new buyers when it has reached 100k and needs to go up another 100k in order to double again in price?
And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station.
Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.

Yes, these are good questions, which I have thought about many times. I also believe that as the price of bitcoin rises, it will become more difficult to find new investors at the higher price. If Bitcoin reaches a price of one hundred thousand dollars or more, the risk of its price fall and its price volatility will also increase significantly.
It seems to me that investing in potential altcoins with a lower price will then already be much more profitable. Well, maybe soon we will see how it will be in practice.

Increasing prices means increasing the range and amplitude of movement for bitcoin and it is quite inevitable that the risk of buying and selling is also higher, sometimes a few percent of the fluctuation range is enough to make us cry when we own a few bitcoin, many newcomers will look at this point to remove bitcoin from thinking and choose other altcoins, old investors only dare to use the method of surfing through leverage, instead of holding. Bitcoin needs to show a neutralization of current emotions and flows in order to stabilize the situation if it wants to continue on the same upward path.

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[dificanovi]

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
From there it will need to rise another 100k in order to double again. I don't say this is not a good investment, but first of all crypto owners are spoiled, until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.
For hodlers who are in from the very beginning, it won't matter much probably, but where will btc find new buyers when it has reached 100k and needs to go up another 100k in order to double again in price?
And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station.
Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.

indeed we cannot predict the price of bitcoin 10 years from now, whether the price of bitcoin at that time will reach $ 200k or bitcoin will be lost forever.
at this time we can only think about the price of bitcoin in the future, but we think that the price of bitcoin will be more expensive in the future because we see a lot of transactions happening in the crypto market so we conclude that the price of bitcoin can continue to rise from year to year.
those who buy bitcoin at the price of $ 56k because they think that the price of bitcoin will continue to rise from year to year as has happened before.
if the price of bitcoin reaches $ 100k then there will be less beginners to buy bitcoin because the price of bitcoin is already very expensive, they think that to get a very large profit is very difficult because from the price of bitcoin $ 100k to $ 200k it might be very difficult and if it can reach $ 200k it will take a very long time.

[Fortify]

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
From there it will need to rise another 100k in order to double again. I don't say this is not a good investment, but first of all crypto owners are spoiled, until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.
For hodlers who are in from the very beginning, it won't matter much probably, but where will btc find new buyers when it has reached 100k and needs to go up another 100k in order to double again in price?
And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station.
Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.

It's a very valid point and all this investment money pouring in might eventually wake up to this fact - the smart money will start chasing other coins which can grow hundreds of percent in very short timescales (like Dogecoin showed us). For Bitcoin to reach a value of $1,000,000 actually seems a bit ridiculous when you consider it doesn't produce anything, costs huge amounts of energy to create and the transaction fees tend to scale up along with the price. At that price it would have a market capitalization of $21 trillion, the is the same amount as the whole US government owes in debt and even the New York Stock Exchange (the largest in the USA) is altogether worth roughly $26 trillion. Maybe this realization will slowly deflate the Bitcoin bubble, but I have a feeling a lot of average consumers who are still clueless about the cryptocurrency space will always gravitate towards the most well known "brand".

[joker_josue]

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
From there it will need to rise another 100k in order to double again. I don't say this is not a good investment, but first of all crypto owners are spoiled, until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.
For hodlers who are in from the very beginning, it won't matter much probably, but where will btc find new buyers when it has reached 100k and needs to go up another 100k in order to double again in price?
And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station.
Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.

When Bitcoin reaches 100M, then it will mark a turning point in the economic world. And markets will look at Bitcoin differently.
Even if you have to pay 20~30% in taxes, we are talking about you have 700~800k dollars to spend for each 1BTC. I believe that there will easily be people with a reserve of tens, if not hundreds, of Bitcoins. If the coin is worth 100M, a person who has 100 Bitcoins can buy half an Apple.

Valuing more will not reduce the number of people who want to buy, on the contrary, it will attract more people. Given the ease of acquiring Bitcoin, more people will buy sats. So, even with periods of lower growth, Bitcoin is already at a point, which is unlikely to go down dramatically, it can only slow its rise.

[SimpleMan]

If btc goes to 100k it will "only" have (more or less) doubled from its ATH.
From there it will need to rise another 100k in order to double again. I don't say this is not a good investment, but first of all crypto owners are spoiled, until up to now we were used to 10-fold, 20-fold + increases, so doubling the money has not been really special.
But this smaller reward ratio is paired with a much bigger risk ratio, since btc's swings in a correction period will also get bigger.
For hodlers who are in from the very beginning, it won't matter much probably, but where will btc find new buyers when it has reached 100k and needs to go up another 100k in order to double again in price?
And the fear of FOMO will also become smaller, as people will at one point accept, that the train has left the station.
Of course, should btc show convincing signs that it could reach 1 Million very quickly, then the whole picture changes.

When Bitcoin reaches 100M, then it will mark a turning point in the economic world. And markets will look at Bitcoin differently.
Even if you have to pay 20~30% in taxes, we are talking about you have 700~800k dollars to spend for each 1BTC. I believe that there will easily be people with a reserve of tens, if not hundreds, of Bitcoins. If the coin is worth 100M, a person who has 100 Bitcoins can buy half an Apple.

Valuing more will not reduce the number of people who want to buy, on the contrary, it will attract more people. Given the ease of acquiring Bitcoin, more people will buy sats. So, even with periods of lower growth, Bitcoin is already at a point, which is unlikely to go down dramatically, it can only slow its rise.

Long before my friend, long before a 100M price for Bitcoin would mark a turning point. Even at 0.5M or 1M only for Bitcoin would case immense change to the world. The money has to come from somewhere. People will start liquidating other assets putting pressure on the respective markets while strengthening the digital world even further.

[giantrobot]

Maybe what you mean is that  as the price increases in the future, the exponential growth will slow down, which is true. However, what makes the argument is that bitcoin is going to be scarce as well, that's why it is the most sought asset in crypto because of this one. Yes, the growth might stall, but with more people looking to buy at whatever price it is, I doubt that there are less buyers that are going to enter, on the contrary it might balloon as everyone is looking to make bigger profits in the future.

I am also thinking about this issue. The higher the Bitcoin price, the fewer participants will be. Because investing in Bitcoin has many unpredictable risks. Once there is a risk, you will lose nothing. So no one wants to lose money. That is why they rarely buy. This in turn led to another result. When few people join, the rewards from Bitcoin and campaigns will be very high. That's what I'm expecting.

[bosede1]

If bitcoin price is $100k today investors are already on the ground for it, I know when the price was around $10k some people might be wondering if people will still invest if the price reaches $50k but are people not still investing, this should not be an issue to ponder upon, I am looking forward to $1 million for a coin.

[JaanusRaim]

100% agree - I would add only two words: CETERIS PARIBUS.

The risk/reward ratio increases with the bitcoin price increase if the bitcoin adoption rate will remain the same (and in the very short time frame - days, weeks, months -  it is so). But in the longer time horizon (years) it is not so. For example, if we compare the price level 10 000 usd at he end of 2017 and exactly the same price level in September 2020 - the last one had much lower risk/reward ratio because bitcoin was just much more valuable asset in 2020 than in 2017.

But, in contrast,  if we look at for example the almost 50% BTC price rise during the last month, it is sure that the quality of BTC has not increased in comparable space at the same time period - and now we can indeed conclude that the risk/reward ratio has increased about 50% as well. And the BTC selling is now potentially much more profitable than a month ago. And the BTC buying is now potentially much less profitable than a month ago.

(I quess, the words "quality", "value" and "adoption rate" have quite similar meaning in bitcoin context).