Decline of Marketplace activity/trading

[PrimeNumber7]

I have noticed that several marketplace subs have become less active than in the past, especially considering that we are in the middle of a bull market.

For example:
*The bottom of the 1st page of currency exchange has a thread last posted in 9 days ago.
*Lending has threads last posted in almost a month and a half ago on the 1st page
*Long term offers has threads last posted in over a year ago
*Auctions have threads last posted in 33 days ago on the 1st page
*Goods have threads last posted in 11 days ago on the 1st page

The above lack of trading activity is concerning to me. In the past, all of the above subs have had much more activity. I would expect more activity given the current bull market.

Does anyone have ideas as to what is causing the above? Does anyone have ideas as to what might attract more trading activity on the various marketplace subs?

I have also noticed that advertising revenue is down about 70% (in USD terms) since January 2019 (prices were similar to January 2019 in January 2020).

Should changes be made to the merit system? Should changes be made to the trust system? Is either system being implemented in ways that are less than ideal?

edit:
I think one solution might be for the forum to take steps to encourage LN use. A common theme I have noticed is high transaction fees when priced in USD for on-chain transactions.

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[ABCbits]

*The bottom of the 1st page of currency exchange has a thread last posted in 9 days ago.

CEX exist for those who prefer convenience, DEX exist for those who prefer privacy or control over their coin and even P2P/OTC have dedicated website such as HodlHold. Currency exchange section is left at awkward position.

*Goods have threads last posted in 11 days ago on the 1st page

Isn't it because people prefer convenience or place which have better reputation such as BitRefill for digital goods or other company such as Newegg which accept Bitcoin?

[hilariousetc]

Most people probably don't want to spend their bitcoins on stuff especially in a bull market, hence few listings. Most people are probably too wary of scams to do much trading here also, especially since it's pretty much a free for all and scams aren't moderated. Selling physical stuff here requires you to give out personal information as well which many people won't want to do.

I have also noticed that advertising revenue is down about 70% (in USD terms) since January 2019 (prices were similar to January 2019 in January 2020).

Well the price has gone up significantly since the start of 2019 so it's inevitable that people won't spend more in bitcoin. I doubt theymos cares too much but I still think he should consider adding more more donator ranks. They'd run themselves like Copper Memberships do so it's not like it will take any input from him once live and would probably generate more income than adverts do.

Should changes be made to the merit system? Should changes be made to the trust system? Is either system being implemented in ways that are less than ideal?

Why would merit be a factor? And what could or should be changed about trust? I don't think it matters whether people are trading here or not, especially from an admin point of view.

*The bottom of the 1st page of currency exchange has a thread last posted in 9 days ago.

CEX exist for those who prefer convenience, DEX exist for those who prefer privacy or control over their coin and even P2P/OTC have dedicated website such as HodlHold. Currency exchange section is left at awkward position.

I thought you were talking about Computer Exchange aka CEX then: https://uk.webuy.com/

Funnily enough they were a website that started accepting bitcoin few years ago but I think they then removed the option probably because nobody was using it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1841929.0

[Upgrade00]

I do not want to be frank, but this is the forum if we remove *earning methods* from it.

I agree that posting frequency would drop significantly if signatures are removed, but niche boards like Goods, Lending or Currency Exchange are not the best reflections of that. These sub boards are only for users who have a specific purpose and not simply for general discussion, contributing to why posts there are not accepted by some managers.
If signatures were removed from Bitcoin discussion or development and technical support, there would still be topics for enthusiasts to discuss.

see how Serious discussion (last post December 20, 2020) and Ivory Tower (August 19, 2019)

These boards faces the issue of what topics fit in there. Most of the topics posted there could easily fit into some other boards and users would likely pick the other board for better interaction.

Lending have small problem that you can get negative trust easily.

If by easily you mean asking for ridiculously high loans using a newbie account, with no collateral, then Yes.
Usually, only users with wrong intentions get tagged when offering or requesting a loan.

[Pmalek]

I took a look at the currency exchange sub, and besides the points hilariousetc raised, another reason is that many members prefer to buy or sell with PayPal. Because of previous scams and chargebacks with PayPal, users probably have a hard time trusting these dealers.

I looked at the first 10 threads involving PayPal where the OP wants to either buy or sell by using PayPal, and this is how it looks:

- Users with negative feedback and/or active flags: 2
- Newbies: 2
- Users with no trusted feedback: 1
- Users with positive feedback: 4

Being a newbie and not having trusted feedback doesn't mean that you are a scammer, but it also doesn't make you trustworthy. I guess when members weigh up their options they arrive to a conclusion that there is almost a 50/50 chance to run into a scammer. If the forum moderated scams, I think the activity in the trading sections would increase. People would feel a bit more protected at least by knowing if someone scams them and they have proof, the scammers would be banned.

[suchmoon]

Being a newbie and not having trusted feedback doesn't mean that you are a scammer, but it also doesn't make you trustworthy. I guess when members weigh up their options they arrive to a conclusion that there is almost a 50/50 chance to run into a scammer. If the forum moderated scams, I think the activity in the trading sections would increase. People would feel a bit more protected at least by knowing if someone scams them and they have proof, the scammers would be banned.

I don't think the chance is 50/50 because you're not randomly picking whom to deal with... that's the whole purpose of having trust feedback, isn't it?

Moderating scams wouldn't be much better - banned users would create new accounts. It might make it worse if users start relying on it (not banned == trustworthy) and moderators don't keep up.

[Csmiami]

----

Does anyone have ideas as to what is causing the above?

People mostly come to the forum to signature spam and make a few bucks out of it. And yes, I do get the irony of saying that while being on a signature campaign....

Merit system works fine, it prevents most bottom feeders from being a problem as they can barely rank up and helps make it easier to see what members are actually contributing in some ways to the forum. There are of course false positives (or negatives) on this one, and each case is to be examined individually, but it's usually a sign to see a Hero/Legendary with less than 10 merits earnt since the introduction of the system...

And apart from the sig spammers, a lot of users just come to the altcoin or gambling boards; which kind of reinforces the vision a huge majority of users have regarding both crypto and the forum

Trust works fine too; if you are using a personal trust list that is

[OgNasty]

I have noticed that several marketplace subs have become less active than in the past, especially considering that we are in the middle of a bull market.

For example:
*The bottom of the 1st page of currency exchange has a thread last posted in 9 days ago.
*Lending has threads last posted in almost a month and a half ago on the 1st page
*Long term offers has threads last posted in over a year ago
*Auctions have threads last posted in 33 days ago on the 1st page
*Goods have threads last posted in 11 days ago on the 1st page

The above lack of trading activity is concerning to me. In the past, all of the above subs have had much more activity. I would expect more activity given the current bull market.

Does anyone have ideas as to what is causing the above? Does anyone have ideas as to what might attract more trading activity on the various marketplace subs?

I have also noticed that advertising revenue is down about 70% (in USD terms) since January 2019 (prices were similar to January 2019 in January 2020).

Should changes be made to the merit system? Should changes be made to the trust system? Is either system being implemented in ways that are less than ideal?

Steady declining trading activity has been a thing since about 2013.  A big reason for it is the rising Bitcoin price and another would be the atmosphere that has been created due to the trust network's failure to act as a honest decentralized network.  Take a look at Rmcdermott927 for example.  He received negative DT1 trust just for offering to purchase a Nintendo Switch using a trusted escrow and was accused of being an alt and harassed until he decided to just leave the forum.  If you haven't been paying attention to how certain DT1 members have been hijacking the trust network and supporting harassment and exclusion of others they are threatened by but have no reason to distrust, you might not understand why this forum is turning into a one stop spam shop instead of a hub of Bitcoin blockchain activity.  I've tried to be the canary in the coal mine, but I think many more people will have to suffer from and eventually leave this forum due to the abuse that is so frequently occurring and supported by DT1 members before action is taken from the Administration.  Likely not even then unless advertising dollars stop coming in and expenditures rise.

[DaveF]

So I saw this post and since I am buried in snow I decided to do this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5313804

It's been over an hour and no takers. In the old days (like a few months ago) it would have been filled in about 8 minutes.

EDIT: I LOCKED IT AFTER 12 HOURS WITH NO TAKERS. So yeah, a lot has changed.

No minimum, if you don't want to pay BTC TX fees I listed Doge / LTC and others.
Not a bite. So yeah, even for fun stuff the marketplace has gone to shit.

That or everyone is outside shoveling the white stuff.

-Dave

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I have also noticed that advertising revenue is down about 70% (in USD terms) since January 2019 (prices were similar to January 2019 in January 2020).

How did you determine that?  Is there a site that gives that information?  I'm an ignoramus when it comes to stuff like that, so it's probably common knowledge that I never learned.  But whatever, that's a huge drop.

Should changes be made to the merit system? Should changes be made to the trust system? Is either system being implemented in ways that are less than ideal?

I think the merit system is functioning just fine, and you don't see many complaint threads in Meta anymore.  The trust system on the other hand....we could debate that until 2022 and probably beyond.  Suggestions have been made and ignored by Theymos, so I don't think anything is going to change in the near future.

I don't know what's responsible for the drop in activity on the other boards, but I do know that traffic to bitcointalk has dropped significantly over the course of the last year and suspect that may have at least something to do with it.

[PrimeNumber7]

~

Fair points that some companies have created efficiencies in selling things that used to be traded on some of these subs. These companies have also (mostly) ironed out problems related to scammers.

Most people probably don't want to spend their bitcoins on stuff especially in a bull market, hence few listings. Most people are probably too wary of scams to do much trading here also, especially since it's pretty much a free for all and scams aren't moderated. Selling physical stuff here requires you to give out personal information as well which many people won't want to do.

We have had bull markets in the past that has caused bitcoin to go up further than it has in the past several months. All of your other concerns have always been a problem with trading on this forum.

I have also noticed that advertising revenue is down about 70% (in USD terms) since January 2019 (prices were similar to January 2019 in January 2020).

Well the price has gone up significantly since the start of 2019 so it's inevitable that people won't spend more in bitcoin. [/quote]In terms of USD, revenue is down by ~70%. It is down by more in terms of BTC. I think this is an indication that advertising on bitcointalk may be less profitable. The fact that bid increments are so high when compared to the selling price may also push the final price down.

Should changes be made to the merit system? Should changes be made to the trust system? Is either system being implemented in ways that are less than ideal?

Why would merit be a factor? And what could or should be changed about trust? I don't think it matters whether people are trading here or not, especially from an admin point of view.

I am trying to start a conversation.

Merit could be a factor if people responding to offers/threads have difficulty communicating, and don't want to pay $35 (for a copper membership) just to talk about a trade. If threads are not getting a lot of responses/sales, additional sellers will not want to create additional threads.

If it appears that traders do not have accurate trust ratings, it may make people uncomfortable to risk their money to a stranger.

I think the administration should care about how much trading goes on around the forum. I believe it is an indicator of the forum's influence, and an indicator of how many 'real' people are using bitcoin because of the forum.

~

It appears that buyers (and people that respond to marketplace threads) have also declined.

I have also noticed that advertising revenue is down about 70% (in USD terms) since January 2019 (prices were similar to January 2019 in January 2020).

How did you determine that?  Is there a site that gives that information?  I'm an ignoramus when it comes to stuff like that, so it's probably common knowledge that I never learned.  But whatever, that's a huge drop.

The last round for the ad slots brought in a total of 0.02 BTC, which is worth around $620. There was a round for the ad slots that ended on January 12, 2019, which bitcoin was trading at ~$3653, that brought in a total of 1.44 BTC, or around $5,200. I may have actually looked at other auctions when I made my statement because the difference between these rates is more than 70%.

Should changes be made to the merit system? Should changes be made to the trust system? Is either system being implemented in ways that are less than ideal?

I think the merit system is functioning just fine, and you don't see many complaint threads in Meta anymore.  The trust system on the other hand....we could debate that until 2022 and probably beyond.  Suggestions have been made and ignored by Theymos, so I don't think anything is going to change in the near future.

I don't know what's responsible for the drop in activity on the other boards, but I do know that traffic to bitcointalk has dropped significantly over the course of the last year and suspect that may have at least something to do with it.

There might be an argument to either lower the threshold to become a full member, or to add an additional rank with a lower merit requirement.

[philipma1957]

Well the computer/mining goods section no longer has much action for a lot of reasons.

Gpus are unobtainable everywhere unless you over pay by a lot.

So when I listed a new sealed quality gpu at a 100 usd markup.
600 vs 500 no one wanted it.

Why is that. Must people left here  that would buy gear want bargains. So marking a new sealed 500 card for 600 is not a bargain.

So I am mining with it clearing 4 dollars a day.  Which means in 150 days it is free.

So sellers like myself say fuck it I will just mine with it.
This is true in many ways.
I spent two weeks talking to a new guy with 100-200 k to invest.

I found three decent deals for him and he did not purchase any. why he wants a bargain. Guess what many will simply mine the gear and not care about his need or desire to get a deal.

I also stopped most escrow on many deals as making ten dollars on a two hundred dollar escrow is just not worth it. So I do minimum escrow fee of 20 usd . and at a thousand I switch to 2%.

What this does is discourage small sales as no one wants to use paypal and get a charge back.

and no one wants to pay 20 dollars for a 200 dollar escrow.

I could list more reasons why things are slow.

in mining section the mod deletes and alters posts a lot.
so i post les their many said fuck it I wont post there.

I wont discuss the boost your points by your trust list as I now don’t give and new feedback with this account.
I use my cellphone account.

But frankly most people post on btc to do a signature.
I used to do that. And then give the funds away in my give away but btc was 100 a coin back then it was a different world.

[PrimeNumber7]

Well the computer/mining goods section no longer has much action for a lot of reasons.

Gpus are unobtainable everywhere unless you over pay by a lot.

So when I listed a new sealed quality gpu at a 100 usd markup.
600 vs 500 no one wanted it.

This could be a sign of a larger issue with the availability of GPU equipment versus demand.

I also stopped most escrow on many deals as making ten dollars on a two hundred dollar escrow is just not worth it. So I do minimum escrow fee of 20 usd . and at a thousand I switch to 2%.

What this does is discourage small sales as no one wants to use paypal and get a charge back.

and no one wants to pay 20 dollars for a 200 dollar escrow.

The USD cost of transaction fees is currently very high, primarily due to the high bitcoin cost. Even without an escrow fee, the cost to send coin to an escrow, and for the escrow to the seller can be high. It may be beneficial if steps were taken to encourage people to use LN, where fees are a small fraction of on-chain transactions.

I wont discuss the boost your points by your trust list as I now don’t give and new feedback with this account.
I use my cellphone account.

I am not sure if you are referring to my trust rating or my merit score. I very rarely trade on here, and my only negative rating is from someone unwilling to discuss said rating. I don't make posts with the intention of receiving a trust review. I put a lot of effort into my posts, which is reflected in the merit I receive, and I send merit to posts I believe that also have a lot of effort put into them.

[philipma1957]

Well the computer/mining goods section no longer has much action for a lot of reasons.

Gpus are unobtainable everywhere unless you over pay by a lot.

So when I listed a new sealed quality gpu at a 100 usd markup.
600 vs 500 no one wanted it.

This could be a sign of a larger issue with the availability of GPU equipment versus demand.

I also stopped most escrow on many deals as making ten dollars on a two hundred dollar escrow is just not worth it. So I do minimum escrow fee of 20 usd . and at a thousand I switch to 2%.

What this does is discourage small sales as no one wants to use paypal and get a charge back.

and no one wants to pay 20 dollars for a 200 dollar escrow.

The USD cost of transaction fees is currently very high, primarily due to the high bitcoin cost. Even without an escrow fee, the cost to send coin to an escrow, and for the escrow to the seller can be high. It may be beneficial if steps were taken to encourage people to use LN, where fees are a small fraction of on-chain transactions.

I wont discuss the boost your points by your trust list as I now don’t give and new feedback with this account.
I use my cellphone account.

I am not sure if you are referring to my trust rating or my merit score. I very rarely trade on here, and my only negative rating is from someone unwilling to discuss said rating. I don't make posts with the intention of receiving a trust review. I put a lot of effort into my posts, which is reflected in the merit I receive, and I send merit to posts I believe that also have a lot of effort put into them.

generic you. not you specifically.

I offer to take ltc and or doge to save on fees. I get some takers now and then.
Basically small miners don’t exist. There were far more back in the day.

[malevolent]

I do not want to be frank, but this is the forum if we remove *earning methods* from it.
see how Serious discussion (last post December 20, 2020) and Ivory Tower (August 19, 2019)
If there is a signature campaign forcing people to post in Lending,Auctions and Goods , they will spam that boards.

Lending have small problem that you can get negative trust easily.

Other sections benefit from first-mover's advantage, I'd also prefer to post in a dedicated section since more people peruse them, but I also wonder how much would activity decline if signatures were to disappear overnight.

I offer to take ltc and or doge to save on fees. I get some takers now and then.
Basically small miners don’t exist. There were far more back in the day.

They do, they use nicehash with the GPU(s) they bought when the prices were lower, or with the overpriced GPU(s) to offset the cost of high prices they paid for them.

[magneto]

I'm not sure about other subforums, but I've been noticing this activity drop in the lending section for a long time now.

I feel like a huge reason is because people are simply no longer able to make microloans feasibly with BTC being this high - average tx fees would eat into the loans pretty steeply (think lending 0.01 BTC @ $400/BTC v.s. 0.0001 BTC @ $40,000/BTC).

Another reason is that forum trust has been diluted to a great extent. Previously, hero members could get no collateral loans easily, but now, even the highest ranking accounts will struggle to get any sizable loan without collateral. Perhaps lenders have matured and tightened their lending standards, but I think the abundance of high-ranking but not necessarily reputable users is to blame as well.

[PrimeNumber7]

Another reason is that forum trust has been diluted to a great extent. Previously, hero members could get no collateral loans easily, but now, even the highest ranking accounts will struggle to get any sizable loan without collateral. Perhaps lenders have matured and tightened their lending standards, but I think the abundance of high-ranking but not necessarily reputable users is to blame as well.

This could be an argument to add additional ranks. Over time, there will obviously be more hero members as members gain additional merit and activity.

I feel like a huge reason is because people are simply no longer able to make microloans feasibly with BTC being this high - average tx fees would eat into the loans pretty steeply (think lending 0.01 BTC @ $400/BTC v.s. 0.0001 BTC @ $40,000/BTC).

This is another reason to encourage people to use LN. The costs to use an existing LN channel is near zero and would reduce the costs associated with micro-transactions.

I have edited the OP to suggest adding incentives for increased LN usage.

[kryme]

Telegram and Discord didn't exist back when this forum was created, I would bet a lot of crypto activity has moved towards those platforms. The vast majority of new crypto users simply don't care about Bitcoin, they care about making a buck, which means they aren't going to check these forums out and if they are, they likely won't be contributing.

Towards DaveF's point (how I saw this thread) -  I was going to participate until I saw BTC TX fees. All my LTC is tied up in long term storage and I wasn't about to pay Coinbase $2.99 to get some more. That essentially free raffle would have cost users over $150 in Bitcoin TX fees for a $30 silver piece.

[philipma1957]

Telegram and Discord didn't exist back when this forum was created, I would bet a lot of crypto activity has moved towards those platforms. The vast majority of new crypto users simply don't care about Bitcoin, they care about making a buck, which means they aren't going to check these forums out and if they are, they likely won't be contributing.

Towards DaveF's point (how I saw this thread) -  I was going to participate until I saw BTC TX fees. All my LTC is tied up in long term storage and I wasn't about to pay Coinbase $2.99 to get some more. That essentially free raffle would have cost users over $150 in Bitcoin TX fees for a $30 silver piece.

yep I myself I encourage LTC and Doge as fees are good.
Although Doge went nuts in price and frozen transactions are now common on the doge blockchains (trezor)
As my signature shows I am more of a multi coin believer as long as the coin is well backed by gear.






I saw Dave's raffle.
I can have some of those pieces I got them from him.
I simply don't do raffles.

[DaveF]

Another reason is that forum trust has been diluted to a great extent. Previously, hero members could get no collateral loans easily, but now, even the highest ranking accounts will struggle to get any sizable loan without collateral. Perhaps lenders have matured and tightened their lending standards, but I think the abundance of high-ranking but not necessarily reputable users is to blame as well.

This could be an argument to add additional ranks. Over time, there will obviously be more hero members as members gain additional merit and activity.

I feel like a huge reason is because people are simply no longer able to make microloans feasibly with BTC being this high - average tx fees would eat into the loans pretty steeply (think lending 0.01 BTC @ $400/BTC v.s. 0.0001 BTC @ $40,000/BTC).

This is another reason to encourage people to use LN. The costs to use an existing LN channel is near zero and would reduce the costs associated with micro-transactions.

I have edited the OP to suggest adding incentives for increased LN usage.

Telegram and Discord didn't exist back when this forum was created, I would bet a lot of crypto activity has moved towards those platforms. The vast majority of new crypto users simply don't care about Bitcoin, they care about making a buck, which means they aren't going to check these forums out and if they are, they likely won't be contributing.

Towards DaveF's point (how I saw this thread) -  I was going to participate until I saw BTC TX fees. All my LTC is tied up in long term storage and I wasn't about to pay Coinbase $2.99 to get some more. That essentially free raffle would have cost users over $150 in Bitcoin TX fees for a $30 silver piece.

I offered BTC, LTC, DOGE, Lightning & BCH
Even if I am just playing around or even if I was a serious vendor doing much more then that just becomes a management nightmare. How many coins can your really take without going through a payment processor and taking a hit on their commission? Yeah I can have a separate coinomi wallet but listing all the payment options and tracking all the coins and then figuring out what to do with them can very quickly become a lot of work. Do you really want to have $18 of peercoin just sitting there because that;s what someone paid you with?

This is something as a group we should probably spend a lot more time discussing and figuring out before it all comes crashing down around us.

-Dave