Advice on Premium for Big Casascius Coin

[casascbuyer]

I have a 10 BTC silver coin with gold BTC in great condition, graded by ANACS (it's been sitting in safe deposit box for the past 5 years).  Now the thing is worth so much, there are all sorts of risks to trying to do a physical transfer to sell it.  I also know it is super rare, so it should get a decent premium.  But I don't have the slightest idea what that premium might be. 

I'm open to discussion about it, but I'm more interested in any documented cases of these kinds of coins being sold.  I'm sure most recent sales of this kind are probably private, so there may not be much to go on.  Does anyone have any advice or references?

To put a concrete number behind it to start a discussion, let's say someone super reputable offered me 13 BTC for it.  How should I feel about that offer?

I guess I could also entertain offers here, as long as there is a reputable escrow service backing it. 

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[Otoh]

...just watching...

[CanaryInTheMine]

premiums have disappeared. the higher the price the worse those premiums get
at some point you’ll just peel it

[gwu79611]

premiums have disappeared. the higher the price the worse those premiums get
at some point you’ll just peel it

so true,once the coin has a premium of 10+ btc.I am sure once heritage auctions begin to auction casascius, premiums will return.

[owlcatz]

so true,once the coin has a premium of 10+ btc.I am sure once heritage auctions begin to auction casascius, premiums will return.

Right, but currently, there appears to be like zero interest from the numismatic community. How long will that take? I don't regret buying any cas coins personally, but I can see why some might at this point, it's been quite evident over the past few months since at least one Cas went at auction for under peel value, which is quite sad. 

I may even peel my own someday, who knows, but the beauty and just pure awesomeness of them still outweigh the peel value, as long as you don't really "need" the money, IMO.

[casascbuyer]

so true,once the coin has a premium of 10+ btc.I am sure once heritage auctions begin to auction casascius, premiums will return.

Right, but currently, there appears to be like zero interest from the numismatic community. How long will that take? I don't regret buying any cas coins personally, but I can see why some might at this point, it's been quite evident over the past few months since at least one Cas went at auction for under peel value, which is quite sad. 

I may even peel my own someday, who knows, but the beauty and just pure awesomeness of them still outweigh the peel value, as long as you don't really "need" the money, IMO.

That's what I was afraid of.  I already peeled a few smaller coins just to get access to the liquidity, but I almost feel obligated to keep the 10er intact because it's such a good looking piece, even if I don't get a huge premium for it.  But I'm not sure I'd take on the risk of getting robbed/scammed to get no premium -- I might as well just peel it when the time is right.

Is the auction you mentioned (that sold under peel value) public?  Is it in these forums?  Are there any auction houses that have handled these items?  I have really been out of the loop for a while...

[selassiesoildier]

What if someone offered you 11BTC. This needs to end up in my future museum rather than be peeled.

[selassiesoildier]

What if someone offered you 11BTC. This needs to end up in my future museum rather than be peeled.

Asking for a friend 

[coco23]

According to https://casasciustracker.com/status/ there only remain 358 (from 490) of the 10BTC coins intact.

It is true that the Premium in BTC went down, but even now you could expect a premium of 2-4 BTC from an interested buyer (imho), which is significantly more than the peel value. As this coin is rare and not offered often here, I guess even for a peeled coin you could get up to 0.5 BTC.

Now in $ this is a lot of money currently. I guess if you had a willing buyer you could set up a proper in-person-meeting with escrow and/or lawyers for a fraction of the possible premium?

There's lots of guessing in here, and surely you will have more effort if you sell it (instead of peeling). In the end it depends how quickly you need the money and how much you are willing to work for a possible premium 

[Edits]

apparently this one sold privately 1 year ago with "multiple offers of 13BTC"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5208478.0

Bear in mind in Jan 2020 BTC was 10K USD so that 3BTC premium in fiat would probably be around 1BTC today

[casascbuyer]

apparently this one sold privately 1 year ago with "multiple offers of 13BTC"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5208478.0

Bear in mind in Jan 2020 BTC was 10K USD so that 3BTC premium in fiat would probably be around 1BTC today

That does bring up the ultimate question-- is the premium additive or multiplicative?

• Is it face-value + $50,000? OR
• Is it face-value * 1.31?

I always assumed it would be multiplicative, but that may have been only reasonable when prices were orders of magnitude lower.  Additive is the probably the baseline: you can peel (face-value) and then sell the empty coin as a collector's item at probably a fixed USD price.  So how much is it worth to have it intact?  I'm actually surprised by the stat coco23 posted that 70% are unpeeled.  Maybe I shouldn't be, but it would suggest that the unpeeled coin isn't particularly rare within the set of all 10 BTC silvers.

[Agrawas]

Is the auction you mentioned (that sold under peel value) public?  Is it in these forums?  Are there any auction houses that have handled these items?  I have really been out of the loop for a while...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5307335

[JanEmil]

Is the auction you mentioned (that sold under peel value) public?  Is it in these forums?  Are there any auction houses that have handled these items?  I have really been out of the loop for a while...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5307335

It actually did not sell.

[Agrawas]

Is the auction you mentioned (that sold under peel value) public?  Is it in these forums?  Are there any auction houses that have handled these items?  I have really been out of the loop for a while...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5307335

It actually did not sell.

The example is for willingness to pay from the collectors. It was expected as a newbie he didn’t have any reputation to save for himself to go thru with selling for below the load value.

[SatsLife]

I have a 10 BTC silver coin with gold BTC in great condition, graded by ANACS (it's been sitting in safe deposit box for the past 5 years).  Now the thing is worth so much, there are all sorts of risks to trying to do a physical transfer to sell it.  I also know it is super rare, so it should get a decent premium.  But I don't have the slightest idea what that premium might be. 

I'm open to discussion about it, but I'm more interested in any documented cases of these kinds of coins being sold.  I'm sure most recent sales of this kind are probably private, so there may not be much to go on.  Does anyone have any advice or references?

To put a concrete number behind it to start a discussion, let's say someone super reputable offered me 13 BTC for it.  How should I feel about that offer?

I guess I could also entertain offers here, as long as there is a reputable escrow service backing it. 

If someone reputable offered you 13 BTC, at the current price of 37-38K, I would feel confident in accepting that offer.  Also considering there is still more of a supply of unredeemed coins vs redeemed coins of the 10btc cas.

What is the grade of the coin? This could significantly alter the premium as well.

[casascbuyer]

If someone reputable offered you 13 BTC, at the current price of 37-38K, I would feel confident in accepting that offer.  Also considering there is still more of a supply of unredeemed coins vs redeemed coins of the 10btc cas.

What is the grade of the coin? This could significantly alter the premium as well.

It's graded MS69 by ANACS.  I'm actually disappointed it didn't get MS70 because it was basically never removed from it's case since it was purchased except to hold it once or twice.  Either way, it's in near-perfect condition, so that won't affect the premium.

Based on this discussion (and the fact I'm not in a rush to sell it) 1 BTC premium is probably too low, and something in the 4-5 range is probably setting my expectations too high.  I'll keep that mind as I search the upper echelons of society for a buyer   .

Also, someone asked about buying the blank if I peel it -- I do have a 25er that I peeled in a rush during the last bubble.  I was pondering what to do with it.  I'm curious what people think that would be worth.  However, even if someone wanted to buy it from me right now, I would have to get on a plane to fetch it (same with the 10er), and not ready to do that until I'm vaccinated.  This is more of a fact-finding mission, at the moment.

Thanks, all!

[Room101]

It's graded MS69 by ANACS.  

That pushes the price up in my opinion, especially if yellow ANACS slab. Collectors will pay a lot more for 69/70 than 67/68 in my limited experience, but as others have said, the market is pretty dead at the moment. Personally, unless you really need the cash, I would wait another 5 years, once BTC is a more established part of the financial system there will be a lot of people that will want stuff like this for bragging rights.

[SatsLife]

If someone reputable offered you 13 BTC, at the current price of 37-38K, I would feel confident in accepting that offer.  Also considering there is still more of a supply of unredeemed coins vs redeemed coins of the 10btc cas.

What is the grade of the coin? This could significantly alter the premium as well.

It's graded MS69 by ANACS.  I'm actually disappointed it didn't get MS70 because it was basically never removed from it's case since it was purchased except to hold it once or twice.  Either way, it's in near-perfect condition, so that won't affect the premium.

Based on this discussion (and the fact I'm not in a rush to sell it) 1 BTC premium is probably too low, and something in the 4-5 range is probably setting my expectations too high.  I'll keep that mind as I search the upper echelons of society for a buyer   .

Also, someone asked about buying the blank if I peel it -- I do have a 25er that I peeled in a rush during the last bubble.  I was pondering what to do with it.  I'm curious what people think that would be worth.  However, even if someone wanted to buy it from me right now, I would have to get on a plane to fetch it (same with the 10er), and not ready to do that until I'm vaccinated.  This is more of a fact-finding mission, at the moment.

Thanks, all!

When you have the 25er in hand, you should put it up for auction and find out 

MS69 is great. If someone offered you that 13 btc, they knew what they were doing and gave you a fair offer imo. Could you wait and find someone willing to pay 14? Sure, I guess it's possible. But if you are bullish on btc you are risking that the premium keeps up pace too.

The premiums are something worth following anyway.

[owlcatz]

That pushes the price up in my opinion, especially if yellow ANACS slab. Collectors will pay a lot more for 69/70 than 67/68 in my limited experience, but as others have said, the market is pretty dead at the moment. Personally, unless you really need the cash, I would wait another 5 years, once BTC is a more established part of the financial system there will be a lot of people that will want stuff like this for bragging rights.

Indeed. However, that same coin in the "oh so cool (??) yellow ass slab", that was probably graded way back (pre-2014) at ANACS (when they used to under grade most cas coins), could very well be an ms70 via ICG.

I have a silver .5 that was an older yellow ANACS ms67 and I knew it was better than that, so I just cracked the slab and sent to ICG. .... Now MS68.

And yes, I agree, unless you really need the cash or btc, I would hodl it as well.