Bull run: will it end in May?

[Lionel]

The first two runs ended exactly one year after the mining reward halving.
E.g. December 2016 => Dec. 2017

IMO it will be the same this time, May 2020 => May 2021

So we shall assume the price the BTC will have in May will be the maximum for this cycle?
Should we sell in May?

[mikeywith]

First thing first, the 2016 halving was in July and not December, so this means BTC topped 1.5 years later, but anyway, why the measure from the halving? why not the previous top or the last market bottom? or the U.S election for that matter.?

I think timing your trade to a given month or an exact static price is indeed a terrible idea, we are in a bull market, one easy way to minimize your risk would be selling your way up slowly, maybe sell 5% at every 5k increment? by doing this your average selling price would be somehow reasonable, but if you wait till May and we top 2 days before that? or if you wait for 100k and we top at 97k? what is going to happen? you will be waiting for the top for another 4 years.

Alternatively, if you know how to read the charts, there will be signs for when the bear arrives, so maybe learn a bit of technical analysis?

[Lanatsa]

Alternatively, if you know how to read the charts, there will be signs for when the bear arrives, so maybe learn a bit of technical analysis?

We know that crypto can fuck up technical analysis but this is way more better on having or basing up to these rather than on making blind calls towards your position.

I agree on the word on getting or having that 5k increment with this you would really be having some goal on getting profits and not totally waiting up for the peak.

Most of the time, emotions do really set in with this kind of situation. Bull run ending on May? Who knows? This would always be a common question on when
this run will end.

[tranthidung]

E.g. December 2016 => Dec. 2017

IMO it will be the same this time, May 2020 => May 2021

• The inaccuracy was corrected by @mikewith.
• You can get more details for past halving days and future halving days. Check Bitcoinblockhalf.com

Past halving event dates

• The first halving event occurred on the 28th of November, 2012 (UTC) at block height 210,000
• The second halving event occurred on the 9th of July, 2016 (UTC) at block height 420,000
• The third halving event occurred on the 11th of May, 2020 (UTC) at block height 630,000

So we shall assume the price the BTC will have in May will be the maximum for this cycle?
Should we sell in May?

Crypto market is not stock market and you can not apply all rules from stock market. Think of it in the meaning of capital operations. If investors take profit with gold and see opportunities in other markets such as stock, real estate or crypto market, they will move their capital a new one.

Same goes if stock investors sell in May, what they will go next, Gold, Bitcoin? With the outflows from exchanges and institutional investments, I expect more capital from stock to bitcoin market. It's not only because of May 2021 (if there will be sell off in May in stock market) but also in a long term.

[BrewMaster]

you are already making a couple of mistakes about your timing of the previous bitcoin bull markets and its halving, some of which was already pointed out.

another mistake you are making is that the bull run cycles aren't starting from the halving, they start from the time the bear market of the last cycle ends. and the last bear market ended in 2020 so we are barely inside the beginning of the next bull market.

another thing to consider is the size of the bull market so far. each cycle the size is growing. that has been true about all the previous 4 major bull markets. this time the size has to be a lot bigger than the previous ones due to all the institutional investor hype and FOMO buying of bitcoin they are doing.
so anything below $500k is not going to be the end of this bull run. and that level can not be reached as soona as May, it needs at least this whole year and maybe even last until next year. i wouldn't be surprised to see the next final ATH in February 2022.

[mk4]

Factual errors aside, the bull market will end when the market wants to. The bitcoin market isn't going to be like "oh crap, it's been X months already, time to transform into a bear now!"

As per usual, in the end, where the markets will go will all end up going to depend on supply and demand, not with dates and time spans.

[AliMan]

The first two runs ended exactly one year after the mining reward halving.
E.g. December 2016 => Dec. 2017

IMO it will be the same this time, May 2020 => May 2021

So we shall assume the price the BTC will have in May will be the maximum for this cycle?
Should we sell in May?

I don't think so if I could make it on may, since my asset isn't that big and I still look forward for another dip to take another chance for bitcoin to hold. Regrets always happens in the first place, because of failing to hold my coins those old golden days. Honestly I can't turn back those times, so I need to to hope for another good chances and fulfill my dreams all over again.

[BITCOIN4X]

IMO it will be the same this time, May 2020 => May 2021

Or you are very doubt about saying it will happen in May 2022.

Everything can still change even if you get similarities from history. For most of the time, I just saw how institutional investor were attracted to bitcoin and they bought it in bulk. It will be a different cycle and bitcoin has got huge support from them (institutional investor) so the bull market will continue.

Alternatively, if you know how to read the charts, there will be signs for when the bear arrives, so maybe learn a bit of technical analysis?

I agree, technical analysis will help us to get sign of correction or the bear market comes.

[fahmimajannat]

Maybe it will end in may or it can go long too.
Recently Elon has also invested in btc so i don’t think it will end easily.
The last one last for 1.5 years
So i think this will go 2 years atleast. 3/4 month extra for Musk's investement.
1.5 billion $ is not a small amount.

[kaeluxdeuz]

Too early to die out.. there lots to see since the manipulators of this market and all of us benefiting from it, have lots to earn.

But that doesn't mean we need to set a date/month to it.

It depends how and when and at what pace will BTC continue

[doctor877]

No one can say categorically that this is the time it will end but it's timing dosent match with the halving cycle. You will know when the run begins to end and bears fully in control as different things and news will begin to happen and people be scare and forced to sell at loss.

[dothebeats]

One thing I know is that you can never time the markets, moreso that a lot of companies are still adding fuel to the fire that is bitcoin's rally. There's no set time-frame for these buy-ins, and the more companies publicly disclose their bitcoin holdings, the more other companies would be convinced to follow suit. When is that going to stop? No one knows.

A 1-year time-frame for the bull run is quite correct, though current market conditions state otherwise.

[ScamViruS]

No one can say for sure how long the bull run will last. Maybe this prediction of yours can be true. Now the crypto market is in a position where only positive news is seen around and this is having a positive effect on the market as well. If the bad news doesn't come in the name of Bitcoin then we might see a longer bull market.

Now it depends entirely on the bulls how they want to see the market.

[electronicash]

too much of a precaution that you ignored elon muck that he just recently sent $1.5B, he definitely will lose a lot. we are all cautious really that we get ready before the bear market starts we have prepared to turn out profits to stablecoin.

bee on the lookout for another big bad news like regulations or SEC against USDT or anything that will pull the price down, it could be a sign of bull market halting.

[DarkDays]

First thing first, the 2016 halving was in July and not December, so this means BTC topped 1.5 years later, but anyway, why the measure from the halving? why not the previous top or the last market bottom? or the U.S election for that matter.?

Exactly my thinking. Why set the benchmark to the halving and not the previous bull run from 2017, or any other metric @mikeywith pointed out?

This is only speculation and nothing more. No body knows for sure when the bull run will end, so don't panic post as people can take you up on that. Just enjoy the ride while it lasts.

On the other hand, if you wanted to come up with a prediction, technical and financial analysis is welcomed

[Insanerman]

The first two runs ended exactly one year after the mining reward halving.
E.g. December 2016 => Dec. 2017

IMO it will be the same this time, May 2020 => May 2021

So we shall assume the price the BTC will have in May will be the maximum for this cycle?
Should we sell in May?

I hope you analyze the market well. You cannot just compare the events after the halving and how the market runs in the current situation. Remember, as time progresses by, the adoption of crypto and Bitcoin increases. Hence, there would always be a chance of a constant increasing price, but might take it slow soon. Honestly, just by looking at the Bitcoin chart, No one could expect what could be the resistance in this bullish market. Also count the popularity it continuously gain just by being hyped on social media. Hence, May, June, July, etc., bull run still depends on how would the people behave on the market's movement. Particularly those hug investors whom can subtly affect the movement of the price.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I think that the market in general does not have a specific date, it is very unpredictable for something, the Bitcoin market is the king of volatility and makes millionaires overnight when they make the corresponding investment and has enough patience to obtain benefits. It may be that some patterns are met many times, but this market is different, perhaps in the stock market or in other markets these cycles are met. I don't think this will end in May, I think that more investors will come to the market and the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise.

[JooBra]

I think this time the conditions are different. Like we are seeing more and more big companies adopt crypto which is good and will pump more money into the market. Also printing money cause of the pandemic will affect that normal people put some money into crypto cause it will be much safer than keeping money in bank in coming years.

[MichaelSaylormoon]

I am no expert, but there is something I notice is over time the bitcoin volatility become lower which means that maybe we won't even have any bear market anymore. It's not "inevitable" (took from elong).
Or maybe the bear market won't impact the price of btc compared to usd because of inflation.

[Tstar]

It depends.

Speaking in the short-term, the current bull run is created most by hype and speculations, and it will end up soon.

BUT if more companies and institutional investors follow the Tesla hype and FOMO, things will go wild for at least another couple of months.