My Football Gambling System: A Betting Experiment

[Pmalek]

Ed: Does anyone know what Sportbet's policy is about this?

Another risk is that sportsbooks can ban or limit your account if they notice known gambling patterns.

I think Trofo was the one who offered the best insight regarding this issue by stating that a Martingale system is nowhere close to a guaranteed winning strategy. Therefore, sportsbooks wouldn't limit or block your accounts if you used it. That goes for those from the top of the list when it comes to trust and quality. Since I do most of my betting on Sportsbet and FortuneJack, I will get in touch with their customer support departments and see what they say about maximum betting limits.   

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[Trofo]

Does anyone know what Sportbet's policy is about this?

This is the closest one i've found based on their terms and conditions.

2.17. You accept our right to terminate and/or change any games or events being offered on the Website, and to refuse and/or limit bets;

I think OP's strategy is fine but the profit limits could cause a bit of problem (if the stake goes above the thousands) since different sportsbook have their own way of setting the limits on each game.

I think I already wrote about it but here it goes again. If you bet on top leagues like Premier League and Champions League and have an account without flags on top bookie like Sportsbet or Stake you are 100% good to go to for very high amounts. I am talking at least a couple of BTC per bet an probably even much more.

If you are betting on French National league like I suggested for catching draws you will get limited for sure. Nobody in their right mind would accept that big bet on small competition. Happened to me multiple times with eSports handicaps, I get limited to around 10 mBTC which is totally ok since the reward for whole tournament is maybe 2K $ and match fixing becomes a realistic option, especially since the team in question just needs to drop one map and can even go and win the game.

And that goes perfectly with my proposed strategy. You can start by picking the draws from small leagues and if you get to big bets just switch to stronger leagues and not get limited.

[wxa7115]

Just take a look at the OP, the system he is using is without a doubt interesting and it has a lot of potential and yet according to him he missed eight bets in a row with one team and in many cases that could be enough to wipe out a newbie that doesn't know how to administer his bankroll.

And that is just for one team. I made the experiment with 4 teams. Imagine if the other teams had losing streaks lasting a few weeks as well during the same period? That could well be 15-20 lost matches in a row.

That is very possible, I have my own trading strategy and I always like to test it against the markets and in one instance I remember that I tested it against ripple and it lost 16 times in a row, the system was still profitable despite that awful streak but it is obvious that most traders after just a few losses they will begin to get upset and then they will make a major mistake losing most of their capital in the process.

And the same is true for sports betting, most of the time you will have small losing streaks of 3 or 4 games in a row but it is very possible to lose 10 or more times in a row and that is when money management skills come to the rescue so you can avoid losing all of your capital and you can keep yourself afloat until the bad streaks ends.

[Pmalek]

Since I do most of my betting on Sportsbet and FortuneJack, I will get in touch with their customer support departments and see what they say about maximum betting limits.

I promised I would talk with the customer service teams of FortuneJack and Sportsbet and I did. This is what they told me.

FortuneJack
FJ support told me they don't have any max limits on football bets. Even lower leagues, such as the 2nd or 3rd leagues of a country are not limited from FJ's site in terms of maximum betting limits. However, the game providers can place certain limits and even limit individual players.



Sportsbet
When it comes to Sportsbet.io, the situation is a bit more complicated. They have betting limits, but their agent couldn't tell me any specifics. Different leagues have different limits depending on several factors as you can see in our correspondence. The support agent suggested I try to place the bet in the range I want and see if it works. This isn't exactly the answer I was hoping for and I wanted greater transparency, but it seems they can't provide such information as they don't have it.

[2double0]

Limiting a gambler who is winning so many bets consecutively after few losses during intervals shows that such sportbooks are not capable of allowing that gambler to win constantly because of less bankroll that the sportbook has or their bad intention due to the fear of bankruptcy if that gambler manages to come out with very big wins following a system just as you did. I am happy to see that your choices to play at, are really good.

[icopress]

Sportsbet [...]

Maybe you should try talking to Steve directly? In the context, what would Sportsbet make an exception for Bitcointalk users. Since, to be honest, I would not dare to use a betting strategy on another platform other than Sportsbet (so I hope that we will get an answer to this question soon).

[wxa7115]

Limiting a gambler who is winning so many bets consecutively after few losses during intervals shows that such sportbooks are not capable of allowing that gambler to win constantly because of less bankroll that the sportbook has or their bad intention due to the fear of bankruptcy if that gambler manages to come out with very big wins following a system just as you did. I am happy to see that your choices to play at, are really good.

This is natural, casinos are in the business of making money and if they can see that you are a professional gambler then they are not going to close your account but they will severely limit your account to the point there is no way for you to profit consistently from them.

In fact many casinos have on their TOS that their site is for recreation purposes only and if you happen to be a professional gambler they will do exactly that so there is not much you can do, it is because of this that sport bettors have one account on each casino they find can be trusted to try to slow down the rate at which they are limited on the bets they make.

[Trofo]

If you guys are worried about limits there is always option of Pinnacle. I did not use them for a last couple of years but they were always targeting high rollers. They have limits from 20-50k $ depending on sports. But here is the catch that limit resets every 3 seconds. Basically it just gives them opportunity to adjust the odds and you have no limits.

As I said before, I don't think bookie limits are the problem here. Actual problem with martingale is always the size of the bank. These days there are so many options you will be able to place the bet for any given amount. If you need to place a bet of 500k $ you can always do it across several bookies in case your favorite bookie limits you.

[Pmalek]

Maybe you should try talking to Steve directly?

Steve could probably shed some more light on all of this but it might also be out of his hands. He might see to it that the player doesn't get limited by the platform's staff, but each game has a higher authority that oversees it. The gaming providers might place restrictions on a player's gambling activities as suggested by the FortuneJack support agent.

[Kittygalore]

Limiting a gambler who is winning so many bets consecutively after few losses during intervals shows that such sportbooks are not capable of allowing that gambler to win constantly because of less bankroll that the sportbook has or their bad intention due to the fear of bankruptcy if that gambler manages to come out with very big wins following a system just as you did. I am happy to see that your choices to play at, are really good.

Well, gambling houses and other gambling entities has to do everything they can to keep afloat and survive, you will understand that when you own a gambling house that has a lot of winners. I think that your strategy of betting on the middle teams seems to work because they have a really predictable win, do you plan to do an experiment where you are betting on the top teams?

[Pmalek]

do you plan to do an experiment where you are betting on the top teams?

Probably not. The odds on the top teams are generally very low. To be profitable, you would have to invest more than double the amounts for each lost bet.

If you take a look at the odds that bookies give on Bayern Munich wins, for example, you would see that in the German Bundesliga they can be as low as 1.10-1.20. Even when they play away, I doubt they are rarely above 2.00. If you are interested in betting on the favorites, there is another approach you can take. You can set yourself a profit goal in your mind. For example, You bet on Bayern to win every single time. And whenever they win, your goal is to earn $20 per match. You can make this $200, or $2, whatever suits you.

Let's say the odds on the next Bayern match is 1.20. To earn $20 on this match, you would have to invest $100 on your bet. 100 x 1.2 = $120. If they win, you made a $20 profit. If they lose, you do the same thing for the next round, but this time you have to increase your stake to account for the $100 loss in your previous round. 

To make it easier, let's make the odds 1.20 again. You can now bet $200, for example. If you win, you'll get a payout of $240. In those two rounds you invested a total of $200, and you won $240, earning yourself $40. As you can see, it's quite an expensive system to play.

I have started betting experiment #2 and when it's done, I will post the results on the forum.

[icopress]

I have started betting experiment #2 and when it's done, I will post the results on the forum.

Oh, I can't get used to your new look ...  Do you by any chance want to fill us in the details? You will sort of keep your finger on the pulse of your strategy and we will watch. Since if I understood you correctly, the next updates will appear no earlier than in a few months, (I would be glad even for a short description). 

[Pmalek]

Do you by any chance want to fill us in the details?

Betting Experiment #2 was already posted a few days ago.
I called it Chasing the Draw because it's about betting on draws for your selected teams every time. I am not pleased with the results, but you can see all the details and results in the thread. The performance could have been much better with randomly picked matches with high enough odds, or by increasing the stake.

[icopress]

Betting Experiment #2 was already posted a few days ago.

Pmalek, Thank a lot for the link ... It's just that in the Gambling section, topics are usually lost pretty quickly, so I assumed that further updates would be in the current thread.

[Pmalek]

But as many others stated you need good amount of money to make this system work, yet you may not be motivated to do it if it goes somewhere like thousands with chain of losses.

Before applying such a system (or any system for that matter), you have to make a decision whether or not you will be willing to invest thousands of dollars in case you are required to. If your answer is no, I suggest you don't play around with it because it can go wrong very quickly. Many gamblers might think a losing streak can't hit them and even if it does, it will last just for a few games. But if you look at my results, you will notice 8 straight losses just with one team. if you do this with multiple teams, that number can rise drastically if you are unlucky.