My Football Gambling System: A Betting Experiment

[Pmalek]

we have different types of martingale and martingale can also be applied in smaller odds but with bigger base bets because they are easily winnable and your win will be small if you dont up your starting bets.

You can decide to not look at the odds and always bet on a particular outcome having a target profit in your mind. For example, you make it your goal to make a profit of $10 (or whatever) on Nijmegen every time they play and win. But for this strategy, you need an even bigger bankroll than with the Martingale I experimented with because the odds will be low from time to time. You need to keep increasing your stake also considering the losses you made in the previous matchdays.     

[Saint-loup]

The basis of the system is a martingale which is not a good start at all. It could potentially work if you can slightly change the odds in your favor by means of a superior knowledge of the sport or teams, in which case you would not need to apply a martingale anyway.

This sound like a loosing system, although you were lucky.

I think it's a pretty risky strategy but I wouldn't say it's a losing system. It's not a real martingale since the game isn't totally random like a casino gamble game. In fact it's rather unlikely for a middle ranking team to lose 4 or 5 matches away in a row (a streak with no draw is more likely to happen though)

agree @paxmao for starters they can bet normally in their own before trying advanced techniques like martingale .

we have different types of martingale and martingale can also be applied in smaller odds but with bigger base bets because they are easily winnable and your win will be small if you dont up your starting bets .
.

if this is a loosing system he wont post it because nobody wants to loose  but in gambling ,  a loosing bet can sometimes become a winner if it got lucky .

Yes I agree with you but even with smaller odds, the total amount of money you're putting at risk will remain the same at the end because your martingale will win and stop more quickly for each streak but your stakes will have to be bigger for the same prize.

[madnessteat]

Total profit made at the end of the experiment: $1,162.29

Your slightly modified Martingale betting strategy is paying off. Congratulations to you.

I wonder what's the maximum bet you're willing to make? I once lost a big sum playing Martingale, that's why I'm asking. If I'm not mistaken I had 13 losses in a row and my deposit was just not enough to continue the game.

[Pmalek]

I wonder what's the maximum bet you're willing to make? I once lost a big sum playing Martingale, that's why I'm asking. If I'm not mistaken I had 13 losses in a row and my deposit was just not enough to continue the game.

The scary thing is that it can quickly get out of hands and if you are applying it to a few different teams at the same time, having 13 straight losses can happen. I wouldn't be interested trying this particular system with real money because of that. I will modify it a bit more and come back with a new system also taking into consideration Trofo's suggestion about increasing the odds by x1.5 instead of x2.

[Stalker22]

I will modify it a bit more and come back with a new system also taking into consideration Trofo's suggestion about increasing the odds by x1.5 instead of x2.

I would suggest you consider the Labouchere (or split martingale) betting system as well. I think it might be appropriate for your betting experiment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labouch%C3%A8re_system

The theory behind this Labouchère system is that, because the player is crossing two numbers off of the list (win) for every number added (loss) the player can complete the list, (crossing out all numbers) thereby winning the desired amount even though the player does not need to win as much as expected for this to occur.
...
Theoretically, the player needs to have his proposition come at least 33.34% to eventually complete the list.

[Trofo]

I would suggest you consider the Labouchere (or split martingale) betting system as well. I think it might be appropriate for your betting experiment.

Labouchere seems overly complicated system for me and I would never use it on something where there are days between events. It is made to offset house edge on stuff where odds should be 50:50 which sports betting definitely in not. Maybe I just never got the hang of it.

@Pmalek
If you decide to try it please post some stats for this one even if sample ends up being small.

[Saint-loup]

Total profit made at the end of the experiment: $1,162.29

Your slightly modified Martingale betting strategy is paying off. Congratulations to you.

I wonder what's the maximum bet you're willing to make? I once lost a big sum playing Martingale, that's why I'm asking. If I'm not mistaken I had 13 losses in a row and my deposit was just not enough to continue the game.

It was a casino game? What was the house edge of the casino game? Because some casinos take a house edge of more than 5%. That means you are getting one losing round(ie unwinnable round) for 20 rounds. In this case it's hard to not get at least one losing round in a such long streak.  

[Pmalek]

@Pmalek
If you decide to try it please post some stats for this one even if sample ends up being small.

Yeah, I will do that. I need to look at a few football leagues that historically have plenty of draws. Does anyone have any suggestions and does a particular league spring to your mind where you have noticed a big number of draws overall?

It was a casino game? What was the house edge of the casino game?

I am not sure if this question was for me or someone else. I was not taking about casino games.

[Trofo]

@Pmalek
If you decide to try it please post some stats for this one even if sample ends up being small.

Yeah, I will do that. I need to look at a few football leagues that historically have plenty of draws. Does anyone have any suggestions and does a particular league spring to your mind where you have noticed a big number of draws overall?

Ask and you shall receive   Basically you are looking for low scoring leagues with constant level of quality among many teams. Most of South America is good but I am finding most of my draws from following leagues: Uruguay, Colombia, Egypt, Costa Rica, Panama, South Africa, Morocco, Iran, French National, Tunisia, Spanish second league and Mexico. You can play most of the games from these leagues with that system of 1.5x your stake and finish with a profit.

I was using all that when I was actively looking for draws, if you are content with one or two games per day I actually prefer to go top leagues and high stake games. For instance Chelsea - United yesterday was a perfect example.

I actually stopped betting on draws simply because I upped my stakes and I am watching all the games I bet on. It is very difficult to watch the game where you need draw to hit. I can't properly cheer, you are hoping for 0:0 and it just ruins my experience. That is why I placed a high stake bet United x2 yesterday and then I can properly watch, cheer and collect profits

[Lorence.xD]

~

That is normal because luck will only come to the right person, making many people can't win on many rounds. The result will vary for every people who use the same strategy. Perhaps, some people can win while others will lose as we don't know where the luck will come. If luck comes, people can win by using many strategies and not just the strategy from @OP. But the system is hard to work for many people as they still need luck to win the match. Perhaps, people need to experiment to see what strategy they can win, so they will know that every gambler's strategy will not be the same.

I don't believe in luck, I am more of a statistics and psychology person when it comes to gambling. Luck is just fancy term for probability and coincidence, they were just at the right place and at the right time. Humans are so obsessed with finding patterns and so am I and I think that if I believe in luck, that would mean that there is no pattern which is close to impossible. I believe that they should just analyze the game more in-depth but enough to not be obsessive about it, relying on luck is not a good thing.

[bitterguy28]

~

That is normal because luck will only come to the right person, making many people can't win on many rounds. The result will vary for every people who use the same strategy. Perhaps, some people can win while others will lose as we don't know where the luck will come. If luck comes, people can win by using many strategies and not just the strategy from @OP. But the system is hard to work for many people as they still need luck to win the match. Perhaps, people need to experiment to see what strategy they can win, so they will know that every gambler's strategy will not be the same.

I don't believe in luck, I am more of a statistics and psychology person when it comes to gambling. Luck is just fancy term for probability and coincidence, they were just at the right place and at the right time. Humans are so obsessed with finding patterns and so am I and I think that if I believe in luck, that would mean that there is no pattern which is close to impossible. I believe that they should just analyze the game more in-depth but enough to not be obsessive about it, relying on luck is not a good thing.

I think it is better to mention that depend on what gambling are you dealing mate , In this thread it is soccer/football that yeah can be used skills and Psychology but in other gambling games like Dice or Slots? maybe it is Luck that will make you win?
anyway we have our own believe and strategy and what i have is depend in which game i will play.

[Saint-loup]

It was a casino game? What was the house edge of the casino game?

I am not sure if this question was for me or someone else. I was not taking about casino games.

No I was replying to madnessteat who was talking about his "13 losses in a row" at one "game", but the same philosophy applies to betting, there is also a house edge that should be taken into account : it's called the bookmaker's overround. If you convert odds into their implied probabilities (eg 1/odds x 100 for decimal odds) and you add up them you will get a result above 100%, that's the house edge of the bookie.

[madnessteat]

The scary thing is that it can quickly get out of hands and if you are applying it to a few different teams at the same time, having 13 straight losses can happen. I wouldn't be interested trying this particular system with real money because of that. I will modify it a bit more and come back with a new system also taking into consideration Trofo's suggestion about increasing the odds by x1.5 instead of x2.

I look forward to seeing the results of your new modified strategy. I have one more question - when do you plan to start testing it and how soon will we be able to compare its performance with the last strategy?   

[Lorence.xD]

~

I think it is better to mention that depend on what gambling are you dealing mate , In this thread it is soccer/football that yeah can be used skills and Psychology but in other gambling games like Dice or Slots? maybe it is Luck that will make you win?
anyway we have our own believe and strategy and what i have is depend in which game i will play.

I don't think luck is the word when you mention dice, I would rather go for probability and statistics, we just can't comprehend the probability on where would the dice will land so we think that it is luck when there is a math behind everything. I do agree, we have our own ways to play and our belief also counts.

[Trofo]

I don't think luck is the word when you mention dice, I would rather go for probability and statistics, we just can't comprehend the probability on where would the dice will land so we think that it is luck when there is a math behind everything. I do agree, we have our own ways to play and our belief also counts.

You can't use probability and statistics on events that are not connected as is the case with dice. There is no math in the world that can tell you which number is more likely to roll in the next dice throw, each throw is a separate event. Yes it will all fall inside nominal values when you have large enough number of events but that does not help you when betting. Local results can and often will be slanted heavy to one side and there is no telling when normalization will commence.

That is also the reason why every martingale strategy will get busted sooner or later unless you have infinite bank and no betting limits.

[Pmalek]

Basically you are looking for low scoring leagues with constant level of quality among many teams. Most of South America is good but I am finding most of my draws from following leagues: Uruguay, Colombia, Egypt, Costa Rica, Panama, South Africa, Morocco, Iran, French National, Tunisia, Spanish second league and Mexico.

The French National League is one competition I had on my mind, but since this is the third division in France, I wasn't sure if there are some maximal betting limits applied by bookies for this league. I like the French Ligue 2 for draws as well as the Mexican league that is without a doubt the strongest football league in all of South America.   

I look forward to seeing the results of your new modified strategy. I have one more question - when do you plan to start testing it and how soon will we be able to compare its performance with the last strategy?

I will probably start this week or in the following week.

[Lorence.xD]

~

You can't use probability and statistics on events that are not connected as is the case with dice. There is no math in the world that can tell you which number is more likely to roll in the next dice throw, each throw is a separate event. Yes it will all fall inside nominal values when you have large enough number of events but that does not help you when betting. Local results can and often will be slanted heavy to one side and there is no telling when normalization will commence.

That is also the reason why every martingale strategy will get busted sooner or later unless you have infinite bank and no betting limits.

I beg to disagree, everything in this world has math, humanity is obsessed with patterns and math helps us find those patterns no matter how obscure. Here is a link regarding 6 sided dice probability. I do agree with you about Martingale though, that kind of strategy will only work if you have the money.

[Reatim]

I don't think luck is the word when you mention dice, I would rather go for probability and statistics, we just can't comprehend the probability on where would the dice will land so we think that it is luck when there is a math behind everything. I do agree, we have our own ways to play and our belief also counts.

But the problem is we cannot apply statistics and probability in Betting in dice so in the end it is still Luck that makes us win , if we can apply that two mentioned then i may agree in this matter but if not then lets accept the fact that in gambling Luck really matters.
though depend on what is gambling for you and how you deal with it, but all in all  luck that will give you win , Unless you can prove me that the probability and statistics can make you a sure winner then i will change my stand regarding this.
and besides i have not seen any one that claims he is an dice expert , because even in the past there are cheating that happens in each event for one can win with assurance.

[icopress]

Yes, that's pretty impressive ... not in the sense of a strategy (although the idea is very interesting), but in the sense that how much patience you need to have in order to adhere to the planned plan. Good luck with your endeavors in the new season.

Ed: Does anyone know what Sportbet's policy is about this?

Another risk is that sportsbooks can ban or limit your account if they notice known gambling patterns.

[ralle14]

Does anyone know what Sportbet's policy is about this?

This is the closest one i've found based on their terms and conditions.

2.17. You accept our right to terminate and/or change any games or events being offered on the Website, and to refuse and/or limit bets;

I think OP's strategy is fine but the profit limits could cause a bit of problem (if the stake goes above the thousands) since different sportsbook have their own way of setting the limits on each game.