A 70% Drop May Occur after BTC Hitting Around $68,700

[traderethereum]

That will be better for bitcoin to hit around $68,700 or more before the big drops occur to make a profit again and have a chance to buy back Bitcoin at a lower price.
If that is the scenario and the price is still at the current price, we can buy more bitcoin before the price starts to rally.
But we know that bitcoin can move to any price, whether that is a high price or low price, and we can not do anything except prepare for anything that can happen later.
We, as small traders, do not have to panic but always try to analyze where bitcoin moves, and if we can see a chance to buy or sell, we need to use it for our benefit.

[SquallLeonhart]

That will be better for bitcoin to hit around $68,700 or more before the big drops occur to make a profit again and have a chance to buy back Bitcoin at a lower price.
If that is the scenario and the price is still at the current price, we can buy more bitcoin before the price starts to rally.
But we know that bitcoin can move to any price, whether that is a high price or low price, and we can not do anything except prepare for anything that can happen later.
We, as small traders, do not have to panic but always try to analyze where bitcoin moves, and if we can see a chance to buy or sell, we need to use it for our benefit.

That is the thing about increases, there are some people that think that it will go forever and buy it at the top and unfortunately people who are newbies buying there are more common.

Normally in order for bitcoin to increase a lot, we need newbies because money in crypto is already established and there are few newbies every single day but when a huge hype newbie group comes in like how they do during peak, they end up losing a lot, veterans know when to buy and when to sell and have stop loss as well just in case so nobody really loses money when they are this much into crypto, they may but they at least know how to recover as well, which is why I think it is quite obvious that we should not have any sort of newbies buying at the top, but if we reach to 68k there will be a lot of them and if we drop %70 that will result with them losing a lot of money.

[matchi2011]

I believe in reasons, cause and effect but 70% huge drop is so huge that it can be considered a crash of the market, yes we have that, but it's pandemic and this is something that nobody has anticipated, or predicted, if it's a cycle of the market, I don't think there is a good reason to give 70% these are just probability in a highly speculative and volatile market.

It's good for people who wants to get in the market that has a very tight budget, I do think so too that 70% is a lot in terms of going down but considering the events that happened this past year and comparing it to the other crashes in prices, I think that the current model in the OP is not going to be accurate.

Cinsidering the numbers of new investors, they are here and ready to compete with other traders, willingly risking their investment
knowing that the nature of this market is to volatile.

We don't know what fate is waiting but there are traces that we can use as basis in order to assess mcu better, do your own research
and analyze everything it helps to keep moving forward with this business.

[NeverSop]

It will certainly have a decline in value after it exceeds the maximum ATH threshold.  But not likely to happen at a 70% drop of value.  Bitcoin has become the invisible force, spice up change.  The same downward trend in 2018 will never happen.  After bitcoin crossed $ 40k, it actually overcame psychology and turned into chaos for whales.  The huge deficit since covid 19 has caused institutional investors to want an asset called digital gold - bitcoin.  My prediction is that bitcoin works reach $ 85k by December this year.

Analysis is only one tool based on balance and normal weather conditions.  Based on this we can consult, make a plan, but It is not valuable for other types of rapidly changing trends with particular trends.

[Wilhelm]

It will certainly have a decline in value after it exceeds the maximum ATH threshold.  But not likely to happen at a 70% drop of value.  Bitcoin has become the invisible force, spice up change.  The same downward trend in 2018 will never happen.  After bitcoin crossed $ 40k, it actually overcame psychology and turned into chaos for whales.  The huge deficit since covid 19 has caused institutional investors to want an asset called digital gold - bitcoin.  My prediction is that bitcoin works reach $ 85k by December this year.

Analysis is only one tool based on balance and normal weather conditions.  Based on this we can consult, make a plan, but It is not valuable for other types of rapidly changing trends with particular trends.

It's going to hit above 100k before August if history repeats...

[Jemzx00]

It will certainly have a decline in value after it exceeds the maximum ATH threshold.  But not likely to happen at a 70% drop of value.  Bitcoin has become the invisible force, spice up change.  The same downward trend in 2018 will never happen.  After bitcoin crossed $ 40k, it actually overcame psychology and turned into chaos for whales.  The huge deficit since covid 19 has caused institutional investors to want an asset called digital gold - bitcoin.  My prediction is that bitcoin works reach $ 85k by December this year.

Analysis is only one tool based on balance and normal weather conditions.  Based on this we can consult, make a plan, but It is not valuable for other types of rapidly changing trends with particular trends.

It's going to hit above 100k before August if history repeats...

May I know where'd you get that information as I don't see bitcoin reaching that high in just a span of a few months? Analysis and calculation might say that bitcoin would likely to dump as much as 70% for its price correction. But with all the factors and investors that came to bitcoin, it is unlikely to even drop 50% as there are a massive wall that is supporting bitcoin now such as corporations, governments, institution and business. We are now at a stage where bitcoin and other crypto are being considered as a way of transactions and payment with all the adoption and implementation that has been happening.

If I may predict the outcome of Bitcoin we might see as low as 10% with a maximum of 30-35% price decline as a correction once all of this are settled and stabilizes. Again, this is just my "own" prediction based on different factors and my personal opinion.

[fadhilz123]

OP, or Bitcoin might never crash below $50,000 again.

May be you should correct your figure because bitcoin as at the time of this reply is trade at $48k and above bit not up to $50k as you stated.
We keep watching the price to see what happen in the bitcoin market as it is unpredictable.

I think he just typo, he thinks $20K as OP says, Op mention back to $20K, this is the bad scenario of Bitcoin, and I think this not gonna happen in a short time, maybe we will see this drop after a big correction like 2017. My knowledge to read the chart is not good but based on the experience I will agree with OP,  we will see the massive drop

[Twinkledoe]

OP, or Bitcoin might never crash below $50,000 again.

May be you should correct your figure because bitcoin as at the time of this reply is trade at $48k and above bit not up to $50k as you stated.
We keep watching the price to see what happen in the bitcoin market as it is unpredictable.

I think he just typo, he thinks $20K as OP says, Op mention back to $20K, this is the bad scenario of Bitcoin, and I think this not gonna happen in a short time, maybe we will see this drop after a big correction like 2017. My knowledge to read the chart is not good but based on the experience I will agree with OP,  we will see the massive drop

There will be drop in the price but I don't think we will go back to 20k again. The support now is very strong because a lot of financial institutions are buying large stash of bitcoin. Unless, they will cash out their holdings to lower prices. I don't think these institutions are looking at short-term profit. There are too much going on now in crypto and dropping it hard is I believe not gonna happen.

[traderethereum]

That will be better for bitcoin to hit around $68,700 or more before the big drops occur to make a profit again and have a chance to buy back Bitcoin at a lower price.
If that is the scenario and the price is still at the current price, we can buy more bitcoin before the price starts to rally.
But we know that bitcoin can move to any price, whether that is a high price or low price, and we can not do anything except prepare for anything that can happen later.
We, as small traders, do not have to panic but always try to analyze where bitcoin moves, and if we can see a chance to buy or sell, we need to use it for our benefit.

That is the thing about increases, there are some people that think that it will go forever and buy it at the top and unfortunately people who are newbies buying there are more common.

Normally in order for bitcoin to increase a lot, we need newbies because money in crypto is already established and there are few newbies every single day but when a huge hype newbie group comes in like how they do during peak, they end up losing a lot, veterans know when to buy and when to sell and have stop loss as well just in case so nobody really loses money when they are this much into crypto, they may but they at least know how to recover as well, which is why I think it is quite obvious that we should not have any sort of newbies buying at the top, but if we reach to 68k there will be a lot of them and if we drop %70 that will result with them losing a lot of money.

If there is a big demand from the institutional or a big company that want to buy bitcoin, that can also give a chance for the price to start rise.
If those newbies do not know when they need to buy bitcoin, they will follow the hype, and they will not have a chance to make a profit, even for making a small profit.
We can not blame them for buying at the top, but we can tell them not to buy bitcoin when the price starts the rally, especially if the rally is happening fast.
If they can analyze the market, that will be better for them because they will know when they can buy and sell bitcoin at the right time.

[GreatArkansas]

(....)

(...)

If there is a big demand from the institutional or a big company that want to buy bitcoin, that can also give a chance for the price to start rise.
If those newbies do not know when they need to buy bitcoin, they will follow the hype, and they will not have a chance to make a profit, even for making a small profit.
(....)

To be honest, top is impossible to identify this time.
And yes, newbie can't be blame if which price they will start buying. Buy speaking of profits, I don't think if they will start buying on these prices they will have a short term target for Bitcoin, it will literally long term.
That's why if you can see there are lot of Bitcoin outflows on some exchanges, that could be mean those Bitcoin will be stored on personal Bitcoin wallet and probably will be hold for long term.

[Wilhelm]

It will certainly have a decline in value after it exceeds the maximum ATH threshold.  But not likely to happen at a 70% drop of value.  Bitcoin has become the invisible force, spice up change.  The same downward trend in 2018 will never happen.  After bitcoin crossed $ 40k, it actually overcame psychology and turned into chaos for whales.  The huge deficit since covid 19 has caused institutional investors to want an asset called digital gold - bitcoin.  My prediction is that bitcoin works reach $ 85k by December this year.

Analysis is only one tool based on balance and normal weather conditions.  Based on this we can consult, make a plan, but It is not valuable for other types of rapidly changing trends with particular trends.

It's going to hit above 100k before August if history repeats...

May I know where'd you get that information as I don't see bitcoin reaching that high in just a span of a few months? Analysis and calculation might say that bitcoin would likely to dump as much as 70% for its price correction. But with all the factors and investors that came to bitcoin, it is unlikely to even drop 50% as there are a massive wall that is supporting bitcoin now such as corporations, governments, institution and business. We are now at a stage where bitcoin and other crypto are being considered as a way of transactions and payment with all the adoption and implementation that has been happening.

If I may predict the outcome of Bitcoin we might see as low as 10% with a maximum of 30-35% price decline as a correction once all of this are settled and stabilizes. Again, this is just my "own" prediction based on different factors and my personal opinion.

Pattern:
Bitcoin has always increased after the halving.
ATH is about a year after the halving. We have a few more months to go.
Crash deep point you are talking about is 300 days after ATH

Values:
$1200 then crash to $162 then 117x increase to $19000
$19000 then crash to $3000 .... (speculation) 117x increase is $351000
(Crashes are to 1/6th of ATH)

Parabolic phase:
Bitcoin has a parabolic phase of 30days before it comes crashing down.
Went from $6000 - $19000 in about 30 days. That’s a 300% increase.
This fact alone puts BTC easily at $174000


Currently we are at a 19x increase so much more potential to go up.
Currently few months left so much more potential to go up.
Currently we are not going parabolic so this is not even 1/3rd of the coming ATH.

THIS IS IF FUNDAMENTALS HAVENT CHANGED!

I remain bullish!! And will sell some at the top and get my coins x3-x6 back in 300 days

[traderethereum]

(....)

(...)

If there is a big demand from the institutional or a big company that want to buy bitcoin, that can also give a chance for the price to start rise.
If those newbies do not know when they need to buy bitcoin, they will follow the hype, and they will not have a chance to make a profit, even for making a small profit.
(....)

To be honest, top is impossible to identify this time.
And yes, newbie can't be blame if which price they will start buying. Buy speaking of profits, I don't think if they will start buying on these prices they will have a short term target for Bitcoin, it will literally long term.
That's why if you can see there are lot of Bitcoin outflows on some exchanges, that could be mean those Bitcoin will be stored on personal Bitcoin wallet and probably will be hold for long term.

Yes, it is impossible to identify the top price, but I am sure that people will have their own target price to buy and sell.
That will happen too with the company that wants to buy bitcoin in various price ranges.
If you want to profit from bitcoin, you need to know your target price to buy and sell, so no matter if the price fluctuates or the price drops to a low price, you can still use that.
If there are many bitcoin outflows on some exchanges, we need to be careful because that can make the price move to some high or low price, and we need to prepare the other strategy to follow the trends.

[el kaka22]

Currently we are at a 19x increase so much more potential to go up.
Currently few months left so much more potential to go up.
Currently we are not going parabolic so this is not even 1/3rd of the coming ATH.

THIS IS IF FUNDAMENTALS HAVENT CHANGED!

I remain bullish!! And will sell some at the top and get my coins x3-x6 back in 300 days

That key sentence there is "if fundamentals remain unchanged" and that is the most important part. I do believe that we will go up even more, we may reach to near 70k levels, but I do not believe that we will have a 70% drop, that part is wrong in my opinion.

We are bullish because of unexpected huge cash reserve turning to bitcoin by many companies deal, billions are coming into bitcoin, this is not a normal regular increase, which is why we can't really have any kind of shocking drop anymore, they will not allow it, billions will be spent to keep it up from now on. Think about it like stock market, they always keep their own money up because they care about that, they do whatever they can do make their stocks higher price, and that is why I believe bitcoin will not have a huge drop. Sure fundamentals look like it will go up, but nothing could show me a drop that makes sense anymore.

[Wilhelm]

Currently we are at a 19x increase so much more potential to go up.
Currently few months left so much more potential to go up.
Currently we are not going parabolic so this is not even 1/3rd of the coming ATH.

THIS IS IF FUNDAMENTALS HAVENT CHANGED!

I remain bullish!! And will sell some at the top and get my coins x3-x6 back in 300 days

That key sentence there is "if fundamentals remain unchanged" and that is the most important part. I do believe that we will go up even more, we may reach to near 70k levels, but I do not believe that we will have a 70% drop, that part is wrong in my opinion.

We are bullish because of unexpected huge cash reserve turning to bitcoin by many companies deal, billions are coming into bitcoin, this is not a normal regular increase, which is why we can't really have any kind of shocking drop anymore, they will not allow it, billions will be spent to keep it up from now on. Think about it like stock market, they always keep their own money up because they care about that, they do whatever they can do make their stocks higher price, and that is why I believe bitcoin will not have a huge drop. Sure fundamentals look like it will go up, but nothing could show me a drop that makes sense anymore.

The drop is a correction for the FOMO parabolic phase. If there is FOMO there will be a bigass correction followed by FUD.

I agree that the drop should get less deep because of corporations buffering BTC and adoption.
I’m still anticipating the low after 300 days but the depth is unknown.

[thecodebear]

There will likely be a big drop and it will happen after price goes parabolic from everybody FOMOing into the market at an unsustainable rate and risking too much and therefore they will panic sell when they see money they couldn't afford to risk plummeting in value.

$68.7k is literally only $10k above the price we've already hit. There is nothing remotely parabolic about going $10k higher from a level where we just had a correction.

Price will go higher that that before the next correction, let lone before the year's peak. Peak price before a big sustained drop will be FAR higher than prices we've seen.

It takes time to build up unsustainable price action. History would suggest the rally will continue some ways into the second half of the year, we are only in the beginning of the 3rd month of the year....we likely have half a year or more left in this rally.

The more corrections we have the higher the price can go. Corrections are healthy and allow market participants to feel comfortable that the price chart doesn't look unsustainably parabolic. The fact that we've had two corrections in the past two months means the market looks extremely healthy right now, despite the fact that it is over 5x up in the past five months.

Most institutions are buying for the long term. Some will, and some already have, panic sell. Some will sell to take profit occasionally and try to get back in lower. Some have rules about % exposure of their portfolio so they sell gains and can't buy more, thus they continually get less and less after gaining exposure as the price rises. But most are buying to protect long term against inflation or to hold long term as they've seen the hodl strategy has been the best strategy from a risk/reward perspective.

Therefore institutions will have a stabilizing effect on the price. They won't FOMO in hard at unsustainable prices like retail investors do, and therefore they could extend the bull market by refusing to buy every time price has shot up too quickly. But they are making long term investments so they will buy in at good prices when they see dips. Both these things mean plentiful but short (a few weeks) corrections, thereby keeping the bull run healthy and sustainable. Because they are mostly long term hodlers, they are less likely to panic sell everything in a crash the way most of the new retail market participants do after a bull run ends. These means less likely to be a year long 80% crash and less likely to take three years to move through a crypto winter from peak to getting back to that peak.

Also because we are just at the start of institutions adoption and most of them will start by taking small positions over time, and as more enter the space that means more and more will later on decide to enter when right now most are not entering, all these means institutional adoption will takes years of gradually building positions and coming into the market. That is another reason why a prolonged and steep crypto winter is unlikely after whenever we do get this post-halving peak.

All this leads logically to two main ideas:

• This bull run has MUCH further to run and will last for a bunch more months. At minimum it should go significantly over $100k.
• We should maybe expect more like a 50% or 60% drop once a peak is reached, and shouldn't expect a drawn out bear market. Perhaps something like a a 12-18 month period from peak to getting back to peak, rather than three years, as institutional adoption continues and they jump at the opportunity to get in cheap. Basically, if there is a big peak this year, next year's higher price may be lower than that, but next year price will likely start coming back up, and 2023's highest price will likely be higher than this years, and market will continue moving up from there.
  

And for all your saying $100k by end of year...uhh yeah we're already in the $50k's and about to push higher this month, $100k will happen but it'll happen no later than this summer, and we could certainly hit $100k for the first time this Spring. By end of year if bull run is still going on price will probably be $200k or higher. My guess though would be a peak price in early Fall around $150k give or take a few tens of thousands, and then by end of year and for maybe first half of next year we'll be back under $100k, though perhaps not even falling to current $50k price levels, and be moving back up by second half of next year.

[Wilhelm]

^^ +1

Only thing I object to is the limited time bear market. I believe the halvings and BTC algorithm lock the cycle to 4 years. But earlier is better 

[LUCKMCFLY]

There will likely be a big drop and it will happen after price goes parabolic from everybody FOMOing into the market at an unsustainable rate and risking too much and therefore they will panic sell when they see money they couldn't afford to risk plummeting in value.

$68.7k is literally only $10k above the price we've already hit. There is nothing remotely parabolic about going $10k higher from a level where we just had a correction.

Price will go higher that that before the next correction, let lone before the year's peak. Peak price before a big sustained drop will be FAR higher than prices we've seen.

It takes time to build up unsustainable price action. History would suggest the rally will continue some ways into the second half of the year, we are only in the beginning of the 3rd month of the year....we likely have half a year or more left in this rally.

The more corrections we have the higher the price can go. Corrections are healthy and allow market participants to feel comfortable that the price chart doesn't look unsustainably parabolic. The fact that we've had two corrections in the past two months means the market looks extremely healthy right now, despite the fact that it is over 5x up in the past five months.

Most institutions are buying for the long term. Some will, and some already have, panic sell. Some will sell to take profit occasionally and try to get back in lower. Some have rules about % exposure of their portfolio so they sell gains and can't buy more, thus they continually get less and less after gaining exposure as the price rises. But most are buying to protect long term against inflation or to hold long term as they've seen the hodl strategy has been the best strategy from a risk/reward perspective.

Therefore institutions will have a stabilizing effect on the price. They won't FOMO in hard at unsustainable prices like retail investors do, and therefore they could extend the bull market by refusing to buy every time price has shot up too quickly. But they are making long term investments so they will buy in at good prices when they see dips. Both these things mean plentiful but short (a few weeks) corrections, thereby keeping the bull run healthy and sustainable. Because they are mostly long term hodlers, they are less likely to panic sell everything in a crash the way most of the new retail market participants do after a bull run ends. These means less likely to be a year long 80% crash and less likely to take three years to move through a crypto winter from peak to getting back to that peak.

Also because we are just at the start of institutions adoption and most of them will start by taking small positions over time, and as more enter the space that means more and more will later on decide to enter when right now most are not entering, all these means institutional adoption will takes years of gradually building positions and coming into the market. That is another reason why a prolonged and steep crypto winter is unlikely after whenever we do get this post-halving peak.

All this leads logically to two main ideas:

• This bull run has MUCH further to run and will last for a bunch more months. At minimum it should go significantly over $100k.
• We should maybe expect more like a 50% or 60% drop once a peak is reached, and shouldn't expect a drawn out bear market. Perhaps something like a a 12-18 month period from peak to getting back to peak, rather than three years, as institutional adoption continues and they jump at the opportunity to get in cheap. Basically, if there is a big peak this year, next year's higher price may be lower than that, but next year price will likely start coming back up, and 2023's highest price will likely be higher than this years, and market will continue moving up from there.
  

And for all your saying $100k by end of year...uhh yeah we're already in the $50k's and about to push higher this month, $100k will happen but it'll happen no later than this summer, and we could certainly hit $100k for the first time this Spring. By end of year if bull run is still going on price will probably be $200k or higher. My guess though would be a peak price in early Fall around $150k give or take a few tens of thousands, and then by end of year and for maybe first half of next year we'll be back under $100k, though perhaps not even falling to current $50k price levels, and be moving back up by second half of next year.

Thank you very much for sharing your analysis, now if it can reach $100k this year, why can't it reach $ 200k this year? what is the biggest limitation? I think that if the price reaches $ 100k there will be many sales, even though the institutions are behind it, but I think that many expect the price at $100k and if it arrives and some do not sell they will believe that they will have lost the movement.

Some traders will put their stops very close, there they will be able to liquidate many, since the traders will enter short and with leverage, if everything goes well in the world (If there are no more fundamentals) the price will exceed $100k and the corrections will be something more long, otherwise we could see more than $100k even this year.

Of course it is my way of seeing the market, maybe I am wrong in many things, but I am based on the amount of institutional investment that has entered and that will continue to enter the Bitcoin market.

[Fundamentals Of]

You have your own interpretation. But it does not mean your interpretation is the same interpretation of other experts in technical analysis. Most likely your interpretation is so different from theirs.

I don't think a 70% drop is feasible at this point. I always think a drop is part of Bitcoin's rise and fall in price but I don't foresee how such a sudden deep plunge in demand happens when adoption has been making records not just among ordinary individuals but also among institutions.

[ice18]

70% price crash is too much and I don't think its normal in a bull market what realistic to me is 30%-40% healthy correction in the short term, I can agree that it may correct after hitting $68k, I know many institutional investors are waiting for a big dip before entering btc and the best range they will accumulate for sure is from $40k if it go down this far but I doubt it will. 

[Wilhelm]

70% price crash is too much and I don't think its normal in a bull market what realistic to me is 30%-40% healthy correction in the short term, I can agree that it may correct after hitting $68k, I know many institutional investors are waiting for a big dip before entering btc and the best range they will accumulate for sure is from $40k if it go down this far but I doubt it will.  

The 70% drop is when we go bear market. It takes 300 days to get to that low point.
Like from $19000 to $3000

In the bull market we get 30% flash crashes between upward thrusts which are basically corrections.