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[stompix]

And a bit of a surprise before any event in the Dutch race



Lando is the favorite for the race before practices, Ferrari guys look like outsiders, and Perez is well...Perez!
I am genuinely curious how much money this guy brings for RB, would that be enough if let's say he goes to Haas or Alpine to make them one of the middle teams?

I'm waiting for the head to head odds, to see if there is any value in going for Lando vs Piastri or Leclerc/Sainz.

[rdbase]

Look at those odds for the next race at the Dutch Grand Prix!
They give no respect to Verstappen on his own home track having Norris on top for the weekend.


But as you have said these are even before the practice sessions have started and we are coming off a rather long layoff so we don't know how the drivers will perform.

practice: https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/formula-1/formula-1/dutch-grand-prix-2024-practice-1/dutch-grand-prix-2024-practice-1-66c323d7b9a86700015d3e02

qualificiation: https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/formula-1/formula-1/dutch-grand-prix-2024-qualification/dutch-grand-prix-2024-qualification-66c32319cf1cd00001541498

Best to wait until P3 are done before placing any bets on the final race is what I would do.

race: https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/formula-1/formula-1/dutch-grand-prix-2024-race/dutch-grand-prix-2024-race-66a8a958cd78f7000192dfbf

[emrecemsan]

And a bit of a surprise before any event in the Dutch race



Lando is the favorite for the race before practices, Ferrari guys look like outsiders, and Perez is well...Perez!
I am genuinely curious how much money this guy brings for RB, would that be enough if let's say he goes to Haas or Alpine to make them one of the middle teams?

I'm waiting for the head to head odds, to see if there is any value in going for Lando vs Piastri or Leclerc/Sainz.

Look at that! Verstappen is still not favoured for the win even in his home GP.    But of course, currently the strongest team is McLaren. It is easy to understand the reason as a result.

However there is an update on the regulations if you have heard. Asymmetric brakes are forbidden to be used from now on. It was helping with the stability on low speed corners. Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren were using it.

Source: https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/what-was-really-behind-the-fias-f1-asymmetric-brake-rule-change/10645992/

Now it looks like we might see some more interesting competition. Like Ferrari to join them. I hope it happens at least.    Because they have had really hard days so far...

Here is the odds for the qualifying. Norris - Verstappen have the same odds:

[rdbase]

And a bit of a surprise before any event in the Dutch race

Lando is the favorite for the race before practices, Ferrari guys look like outsiders, and Perez is well...Perez!
I am genuinely curious how much money this guy brings for RB, would that be enough if let's say he goes to Haas or Alpine to make them one of the middle teams?

I'm waiting for the head to head odds, to see if there is any value in going for Lando vs Piastri or Leclerc/Sainz.

Look at that! Verstappen is still not favoured for the win even in his home GP. But of course, currently the strongest team is McLaren. It is easy to understand the reason as a result.

Now it looks like we might see some more interesting competition. Like Ferrari to join them. I hope it happens at least.   Because they have had really hard days so far...

Here is the odds for the qualifying. Norris - Verstappen have the same odds:

The odds on Sportsbet have flipped and now Verstappen @2.75x & Norris @2.85 for the final race.
As they should be for the home track driver has that advantage if some can call it that.

As for Lewis and Ferrari, there was some news released about his long time engineer at Mercedes will not be parting ways with the silver arrows after all:
New race engineer for Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari as Pete Bonnington promoted by Mercedes
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/hamilton-set-to-part-ways-with-race-engineer-as-bonnington-receives-mercedes-promotion.3yW9kT5jqft902W2ZMbbBX

[danherbias07]

^
Verstappen back to the favorites. Nice!
I don't know why he is saying this though, he is contradicting the odds that came out.

Max Verstappen has admitted that he is feeling less certain about his prospects of winning the Dutch Grand Prix than during F1’s last visit to Zandvoort 12 months ago, with “many more teams” now in with a chance of taking victory.

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/verstappen-expecting-his-toughest-dutch-grand-prix-yet-as-he-assesses.1y1I8gs54yFmgfqeFGzyfs
Or maybe it is just a strategy to make his opponents think that he won't try his best.

He was not yet defeated for a long time in his home track and I don't think he will. This could just be a mental game for his opponents and it actually might work. No doubt I will bet for him to win this race.
Good luck everyone.

[stompix]

Yeah, Max has flipped the odds, but not for Redbull:



I can't imagine trying to insure the bet and going down from 2.75 to 2.65 hoping that for 0.1 if Max doesn't win it will be Perez, seem like a futile attempt of a hedge.

I'm looking at full-season bets, the constructor final standing is tempting,  



10 races to go, 42 points left as lead over McLaren.
9 point lost in Belgium, 27 in Hungary, 9 in GB, that's enough for McLaren to take the spot.

[rdbase]

It really is a pick 'em at this point since we haven't seen them race since the last one at Circuit of Spa-Francorchamps.
Alot could of changed to upgrades to the team's car or particular drivers really could of been training instead of soaking up the sun during their summer break. Who knows really.

All I can say it will be an interesting one. That is for certain!

[emrecemsan]

We have FP1 results by the way.


_{Full results: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2024/races/1243/netherlands/practice/1}

Norris and Verstappen have started to compete each other hard from FP1 already.    I can't wait for the qualifying tomorrow already now...

If I make a bet on this weekend, I'm going to bet on Norris to take pole and win the race both. I love to take risks and I believe it is a risk worth taking considering the power comparison of McLaren - Red Bull.

Leclerc had such a poor session unlike what Sainz did. I really don't know what's going wrong with him. Ferrari isn't having a good season but at least he shouldn't be worse than Sainz and should be more consistent.

[SquallLeonhart]

The fact that a team other than Red Bull is shown as the favourites, and another driver than Max shown as the favourite is something we haven't seen in a long long time, probably the only time that ever happened was back when Hamilton was still winning, which was like three or so years ago, not anytime recently. It's really clear that we are seeing something big here, a big change, and Mclaren is really doing something amazing, nobody expected them to be this good and I have no idea what type of upgrade they did to get here but it is clear that they really did something amazing to get here whatever it was.

Norris must be super excited, I mean he has a chance to finish the season with multiple wins if this goes on, and for someone who has been around for so long and never won before, getting his first win was amazing, and he could end up with a lot more of them too, that's a great deal for him and could be very good, both for him and for Mclaren as well.

[rdbase]

FP3 is still underway with I believe Leclerc taking the lead away from Alonso.
Logan Sargeant might not be ready for qualifying with his car being set on fire during the practice session just minutes ago:


https://x.com/Racingnews365c/status/1827284039360733414

Qualifying is in around 3 hours from now.

[boltz]

McLaren on pole with Norris once again! Just when everyone thought that RedBull will improve a lot after summer break , we still have McLaren being the strongest car but also having both pilots fighting for points and podiums race after race and if this continue to go so well for McLaren , I'm more than convinced that they will actually win the constructors championship because Sergio Perez is clear that we won't help RedBull because he simply cannot.

So ...P1. Norris , P2. Verstappen , P3. Piastri.

[rdbase]

McLaren on pole with Norris once again! Just when everyone thought that RedBull will improve a lot after summer break , we still have McLaren being the strongest car but also having both pilots fighting for points and podiums race after race and if this continue to go so well for McLaren , I'm more than convinced that they will actually win the constructors championship because Sergio Perez is clear that we won't help RedBull because he simply cannot.

So ...P1. Norris , P2. Verstappen , P3. Piastri.

That was a great qualifying that I had seen in a while. Even Mercedes got penalized for impeding Red Bull. Believe it was Hamilton on Perez. But wasn't certain because I was celebrating Norris pole position yet again this season.
What is that now his 4th?
Amazing run as I thought Verstappen was going to run away but Norris was right behind him on that final lap in Q3 so I believe that helped him get that extra boost since the track looked still a bit wet from the previous down pour yesterday.
There was still humidity in the air from the beginning since the announcer's did mention there was still 40% chance of showers during this qualifying session but it looked like a dry run for the drivers today.
Odds were @2.75x for Norris to take Pole this qualifying and Verstappen @3.00x

Can't wait to see what happens tomorrow against these two. It should be well worth the wait since the last race we had nearly at the beginning of the month!

[emrecemsan]

It was a solid pole position for Norris.    Verstappen couldn't even get near him in Q3. It was nice to see Piastri right behind Verstappen. Who knows maybe he might have a better start and have a chance to attack Verstappen tomorrow.

This must be the 3rd pole position for Norris this season if I'm not mistaken. He got the first 2 ones in Spain and Hungary. This has all started since Red Bull lost their power against McLaren significantly.

Tomorrow the weather says there is no rain. Verstappen would surely be extra focused because of being at home. But a really tough race is waiting for him. This time hopefully Norris doesn't mess up and wins. 

[stompix]

Whoever took the 2.75 for Lando can try a cashout now, one full point down in the odds, if not a cashout maybe some hedging bet with a combination of constructors placements.

Also, another movement for the McLaren in the championship race, down from 1.57 to 1.49 before the race, if they finish in the same order or worse for RB probably it will go to 1.45 or even 1.40 but unlike the other move which is understandable, I wonder why this one now, since it's the first time in a few races Perez didn't do that bad. Not having anything against the guy personally but if RB loses it's definitely on him and no amount of sponsorship is going to save him next year, as I'm quite sure numbers in advertising plummet once you;re no longer on the winning side.

Logan Sargeant might not be ready for qualifying with his car being set on fire during the practice session just minutes ago:

For more dramatic effect:



Since I mentioned sponsorships earlier, I can already picture the faces of some of the guys in marketing once those pictures hit the news, I think everyone is praying in their minds, "Please don't make it a hit with memes!" 

[rdbase]

Seen the odds today Stompix and yes Verstappen is a full point higher than Norris @2.75x to win at his own home track.

https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/formula-1/formula-1/dutch-grand-prix-2024-race/dutch-grand-prix-2024-race-66c875dab9a86700015eea31

Good enough to take at this risk? Sure why not!
Hamilton is 14th on the grid due to that penalty enforced of impeding Perez during qualifying yesterday.

Also did any one else notice Yuki Tsunoda vaping during the morning driver meetups just about an hour ago?

Japanese culture has a different view of smoking (inhaling of smoke or vapor) and just recently stopped allowing smoking in one of their bullet trains.
Very strange to see a major athlete doing that in public on his work day.

[emrecemsan]

The race is over already... It is going to be a really easy win for Norris unless he makes an individual mistake. A gap like 13 seconds is insane man. Verstappen is really very slow. Nothing changed after qualifying.

Piastri is pushing for podium and he is very close to Leclerc. Probably he will manage to finish there.    But I want Leclerc to finish on podium to tell the truth. Ferrari should be able to achieve something already!

I wish Hamilton didn't mess up in qualifying. He could have really been competitive for podium. He is really fast now. Maybe at least he might be able to keep fastest lap on himself.

[stompix]

Didn't watch the race, I have it on recording anyhow but seeing the results and the time, I wonder if I will just skip through it.

I placed just one bet and it wasn't about the Dutch race, and the one mentioned about the final standings on teams, I'm as sure as one can be when it comes to gambling that RB is going to lose. Bookies have also reacted sharply to that, not even 24 hours and the odds for the next one are telling:



I'll be watching the liquidity and head to some exchanges to see how much can I play around with, backing all Max and hoping for a fast qualifying from him might be worth more than taking Lando on a direct bet.
The thing is I'm not enjoying these as much as I did before, too much effort and that need for timing ...

[rdbase]

^^
This was discussed right before the race actually by the announcers about Red Bull losing the constructors for the season.
The gap between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris is still wide with just a few more races to go that the Dutchman might still be able to win that but margin between Red Bull and McLaren is razor sharp.
They were 42 points away from RB but now are 30 points so they might just end up winning the season with both drivers performing and Perez not.
https://www.si.com/fannation/racing/f1briefings/news/mclaren-ceo-fires-upgrade-warning-to-red-bull-after-dominant-dutch-gp-victory-01j655c5jqhq

[rdbase]

Next race is at the Autodromo Nazionale Monza track for the Italian Grand Prix.


practice: https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/formula-1/formula-1/italian-grand-prix-2024-practice-1/italian-grand-prix-2024-practice-1-66cc4b4a3aca89000108705c

qualification: https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/formula-1/formula-1/italian-grand-prix-2024-qualification/italian-grand-prix-2024-qualification-66cc510bf230530001ed6e98

race: https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/formula-1/formula-1/italian-grand-prix-2024-race/italian-grand-prix-2024-race-66cb9f0f3aca89000147db80

[stompix]

Oh, glad I didn't put a dime on the exchange, but I never imagined Max would be getting even higher so quickly, only 24 hours and still sliding with basically no news or anything, it's a clear sign Lando is getting backed and money is flowing, so they are adjusting the odds.

Never imagined that this year I would do the same math for how many races of counting how many points Max needs to defend but with a totally different scenario.

9 races to go, and 70 points to defend.

In theory, a continuous 1 2 placing is barely not enough, but no way Lando can get 9 victories, and no way Max would get spot 2 9 times in a row, so one flopping once might increase the advantage by double that or diminishing it too.
Still, Max lost only 11 points in the last 4 races, if things go like this the championship is secure.

For the constructor, only 30 points advantage.
Almost twice as much that lost in the last races, so probably more of a secure bet on McLaren here than on Max, and just look at the odds:



I think that Italy will be a decisive point, either a morale boost for the chasing pack or sealing the deal.