F1 Formula Sports Racing betting discussion thread

[stompix]

They need to stop racing during World Cups, the interest for it goes down even if the races get a bit more challenging..

Anyhow, I find the odds weird:




Too much sun and too much heat around for all the math, but I don't feel like it actually reflects the situation, points have to go somewhere; if you take Mercedes beating Ferrari at such odds then how would any of their drivers even count above 10x?
I will probably take a look on Poly to see how much a Hamilton "NO" is right now!

[rdbase]

They need to stop racing during World Cups, the interest for it goes down even if the races get a bit more challenging..
Too much sun and too much heat around for all the math, but I don't feel like it actually reflects the situation, points have to go somewhere; if you take Mercedes beating Ferrari at such odds then how would any of their drivers even count above 10x?
I will probably take a look on Poly to see how much a Hamilton "NO" is right now!

There is much more whales on polymarket making bigger bets than even on the the typical casinos.
Some of those bets are placed live and they seem to be the better option to make during these sporting events.
Last weekend somebody placed a $900k bet after seeing something that caught their eye so I expect their site to accept bets faster than other methods especially when it is needed to settle quickly during these live bets.

As for this race in Belgium I would agree with you that all the attention will be on the final of the World Cup.
Many will just watch this F1 race on a recording of the event and not live while it is happening.

[NeuroticFish]

As for this race in Belgium I would agree with you that all the attention will be on the final of the World Cup.

Interestingly, even Colapinto seems to have said that if the race would have been at the same time as the World Cup Final, he would have been "DNS".
But they're actually at different hour and for those who didn't go physically to either one, it's easily manageable to watch both.

They need to stop racing during World Cups, the interest for it goes down even if the races get a bit more challenging..

Anyhow, I find the odds weird:




Too much sun and too much heat around for all the math, but I don't feel like it actually reflects the situation, points have to go somewhere; if you take Mercedes beating Ferrari at such odds then how would any of their drivers even count above 10x?
I will probably take a look on Poly to see how much a Hamilton "NO" is right now!

It may be actually accurate. Some of the teams did upgrades (some drivers even start from the back) and some didn't. In the qualifiers Kimi was the first by some 0.3s, the second came Max and that was only because Hadjar gave him a tow. And then the next 4-6 cars are pretty much similar, having here the Ferraris, the McLarens, George and ... Lindblad! Imho this close pack shuffles the odds a lot, even if iirc Lando will start from the back because of his too many upgrades.

[stompix]

It may be actually accurate. Some of the teams did upgrades (some drivers even start from the back) and some didn't. In the qualifiers Kimi was the first by some 0.3s, the second came Max and that was only because Hadjar gave him a tow. And then the next 4-6 cars are pretty much similar, having here the Ferraris, the McLarens, George and ... Lindblad! Imho this close pack shuffles the odds a lot, even if iirc Lando will start from the back because of his too many upgrades.

Hmm, still don't get it!
If you transform it into percentages, it would give an 8% chance of a screw-up for Mercedes to get beaten with a 4% chance of Leclerc becoming Champion and beating them both
Leclerc beating both of them would mean like a ton of points lost, so...where would those go?
I would see either Mercedes way lower than this, with the Ferrari pilots closer to Antonelli.

Either way, nothing attractive for me to bet in the championship, not of value to get money stuck here for months.

[emrecemsan]

Ferraris are lucky to have gained a place after Norris' power unit changes. But the qualifying was really disappointing for them. They were on the rise recently in the end.

Still a podium finish is possible of course. It depends on the racing paces. They are starting 4th and 5th in the end. Great work by Max by the way! He is getting the best out of his car now. 

Norris received a 10-place penalty so he can still climb. But finishing on podium is questionable!

[rdbase]

Ferraris are lucky to have gained a place after Norris' power unit changes. But the qualifying was really disappointing for them. They were on the rise recently in the end.

Still a podium finish is possible of course. It depends on the racing paces. They are starting 4th and 5th in the end. Great work by Max by the way! He is getting the best out of his car now. 

Norris received a 10-place penalty so he can still climb. But finishing on podium is questionable!

Another Antonelli win for this GP which started earlier than the last few I had got up on a Sunday to be able to watch live.
Ferrari did finish on the podium with Leclerc taking second and then Verstappen finishing third.
As for the other Mercedes from what I am reading he DNF for this race so this can only be good for the drivers right below him on the leaderboard.

[stompix]

Didn't watch the race...just got home and even if it would have been another one it was not in my plans but...
Russell out, Leclerc in front of Hamilton, Max on the podium?
Got to grab some snacks and enjoy the replay, this time with no mute commentary and the duo pain, since Hamilton won I needed to watch the race on a German channel!

Also, what a drop for Antonelly, was 1.48 in my screenshot two days ago is now 1.18.
Funny though, Mercedes barely budged, down 1.07 from 1.08, probably no money on the market to push it deeper.

Btw, does anyone remember the hype around Alonso and Aston Martin? 

[NeuroticFish]

Didn't watch the race...

I wanted to watch the race. I kinda did that. But this stupid cheap ass Romanian tv channel who bought the rights for F1 only delivered frustration  . It was a storm in Bucharest and the satellite connection with F1 or Spa (I don't know) was off. Obviously, these cheapos didn't even think on backups, nah. They've delivered commercials and a re-run of previous night's football game. I've missed maybe half an hour after the first maybe 5 minutes.

By the time the connection was back the action of the race was pretty much done.
So I should watch a rerun... just I don't have the time for it, so I've watched the highlights, but it's not the same.


Lando and Hadjar did well, they've started from the back and scored nicely. Lando was even leading the race at some point, heh. And if the race would have been 1-2 laps longer, Lando would have been probably also overtaking Hadjar.
As usual, George was "unlucky. This time for being on the same track with Lewis. I think that only 5s for ruining somebody's race is too weak of a penalty. And Lewis also knows that.
The Ferraris were pretty strong and lucky too. Lewis should have gotten one more penalty for unsafe release and injuring one of the guys who changed his tyres, but yeah, politics.
Colapinto did an overtake I will want to see again from a better angle.

[rdbase]

Didn't watch the race...just got home and even if it would have been another one it was not in my plans but...
Russell out, Leclerc in front of Hamilton, Max on the podium?
Got to grab some snacks and enjoy the replay, this time with no mute commentary and the duo pain, since Hamilton won I needed to watch the race on a German channel!

Also, what a drop for Antonelly, was 1.48 in my screenshot two days ago is now 1.18.
Funny though, Mercedes barely budged, down 1.07 from 1.08, probably no money on the market to push it deeper.

Btw, does anyone remember the hype around Alonso and Aston Martin?  

I do remember Aston Martin glowing when they hired Alonso and having the thought of him teaching Stroll in becoming a better driver. Well that didn't happen and he has DNF in almost each one everytime I look at the results after the race.

-snipped-
The Ferraris were pretty strong and lucky too. Lewis should have gotten one more penalty for unsafe release and injuring one of the guys who changed his tyres, but yeah, politics.
Colapinto did an overtake I will want to see again from a better angle.

Watched the replay of the release after the pitstop and they were saying he didn't receive a penalty because Ferrari gave him the green light. So should the driver be at fault if given the okay to proceed?

[emrecemsan]

By the way Russell was talking about the battery problem angrily in team radio after his crash early in the race. But F1TV didn't show that part to the viewers.

This is really not good at all... Everyone knows that the regulations this year are terrible. People know about the battery situation already so why would even they do that? 


I wished Leclerc to win there but unfortunately... Still a really good work by Ferrari! Finally they are more competitive.

[NeuroticFish]

Watched the replay of the release after the pitstop and they were saying he didn't receive a penalty because Ferrari gave him the green light. So should the driver be at fault if given the okay to proceed?

All the unsafe release issues are in the combined fault of both the driver and the crew, however, it's only the driver who can be penalized.
Here's no real difference, except the fact it's an in-team issue and they trivialized it. If another team would have been involved they would not let it go.

By the way Russell was talking about the battery problem angrily in team radio after his crash early in the race. But F1TV didn't show that part to the viewers.

Well, Piastri said it loud and clear:

When you’ve got qualifying grids decided by computers behaving or misbehaving, it’s a pretty crap way of going racing.

But, unlike Piastri, Russell is complaining about everything possible. Of course, after a while nobody cares any longer about his complains.

[rdbase]

On to the next race for this weekend will be on the Hungaroring track for the Hungarian Grand Prix.
Not so sure who this one favors but from what was said during the last race both Hamilton and Leclerc do well so can we expect another run from Ferrari in getting closer to Mercedes on the leaderboard?
Not sure McLaren will be making any progress in this race as they have been out of contention for awhile now.

[NeuroticFish]

So quiet here, nobody managed to watch the race?
It had a few good moments, some at the start, some interesting overtakes, a nice strategy eg for Max, but not too bad for Kimi either, George losing 12 places at start and then recovering during the race most of them, Hadjar doing quite good team work again and Ferrari doing not too bad. But it was McLaren's day, although only Lando finished the race.
Overall, it had, as I said, quite some enjoyable moments (of course, it had also quite some periods I almost fell asleep, but that's another story).

I've seen Lando so highly confident today after the win! But he forgot to mention one small thing: this is one of the very few races where there are a lot of places the battery can recharge. So here the cars has more time full power available. And this, in 2026, is an exception, not the rule.

[stompix]

So quiet here, nobody managed to watch the race?

Was there a race? God!
I actually didn't know it was this weekend!
I said it before: one month of an event that you get bombarded from dawn to dusk with it and you forget anything else exists!

If the guy at the top hadn't been there I would have kicked myself for not watching it, in rest I'm more than ok with everything:

I've seen Lando so highly confident today after the win! But he forgot to mention one small thing: this is one of the very few races where there are a lot of places the battery can recharge. So here the cars has more time full power available. And this, in 2026, is an exception, not the rule.

Yeah, I saw Hamilton doing the same after Catalunya, one win and it was like he was one race away from winning the title!

And about that battery and the power of the cars, like seriously, the last race when Max managed to get ahead in the first lap and only 2 second later he was passed by like he was driving a Minardi, I won't be able to erase that scene from my memory this life.

[emrecemsan]

I watched the race and I could say I'm happy for Norris. It was a deserved win after a solid effort in qualifying too. For once I thought if Max could really win... He had huge odds!  

Ferrari didn't have an amazing race. I'd have loved to see a podium. But considering the current team standings do you think Ferrari can make it this year? The point gap is only 72 now.

You know, Russell continues to mess up.    By the way we have another 1-month break, just great...

[rdbase]

So quiet here, nobody managed to watch the race?
It had a few good moments, some at the start, some interesting overtakes, a nice strategy eg for Max, but not too bad for Kimi either, George losing 12 places at start and then recovering during the race most of them, Hadjar doing quite good team work again and Ferrari doing not too bad. But it was McLaren's day, although only Lando finished the race.
Overall, it had, as I said, quite some enjoyable moments (of course, it had also quite some periods I almost fell asleep, but that's another story).

I've seen Lando so highly confident today after the win! But he forgot to mention one small thing: this is one of the very few races where there are a lot of places the battery can recharge. So here the cars has more time full power available. And this, in 2026, is an exception, not the rule.

Watched the qualifying and the race itself but was waiting for any others to put in their thoughts first.
But as stompx mentioned he did not realize there was a race this past weekend.

Just when I say Mclaren won't make any progress and look what happens.
But Piastri didn't have a chance since Sainz caused him to crash into him. Was mentioned this incident was blue flagged. Oscar's car was in rough shape by the time he had to eventually pull off the track causing his DNF in this race.

Ferrari didn't have an amazing race. I'd have loved to see a podium. But considering the current team standings do you think Ferrari can make it this year? The point gap is only 72 now.

You know, Russell continues to mess up. By the way we have another 1-month break, just great...

Mclaren looks higher on the leaderboard then I thought they were a week ago and now Ferrari are the ones that look shaky.
Yes, no races for a while since they are off for their summer break.

[boltz]

4 races , 4 penalties for Hamilton ? wow , seems like FIA is protecting the last Schumacher records as much as they can because 0.1 KM/h is actually not even visible so that was a super lame penalty they gave to Hamilton yesterday.

Also , it seems McLaren is fully divided after yesterday race and funny or not the one who will actually benefit from this will be Piastri and I'm sure we won't be with McLaren after 2027 because this team doesn't deserve him or his skills and all they deserve is to struggle alongside Norris for the next 4-5+ years.