I have $150,000 US dollars and my target is a 10x gain. Stop me going all in now

[4thewin]

Hi there,

First, a little about me.  I am a first-time investor to crypto.  However, I have had a few stocks (Roth IRA stuff) and tech stocks and overall have made the average 8% return over about 8 years.  I now have 150,000 to scrape together.

Principles:  I have a high risk profile.  I am patient up to 10 years.  I could buy and hold.  I do believe this 2021 is a once in a lifetime year.  The gains next cycle will be much less in 4 years.
I do believe that earlier is always better.  Did I say I have a high risk profile?

I have a few specific questions and I know it's just your opinions.

1.  Starting today on April 10, 2021 if I invested 150k in bitcoin, how much do the gurus expect me to have in 1, 2, 5, and 10 years?  Like would any idiot who just invested today and didn't sell expect a 5x increase within the next 10 years?
2.  I would use dollar cost averaging, but over what time horizon?  Invest 150k over the next six months?  Or just invest it all today since we all know it's going up?
3.  I could withdraw the old retirement fund and get the initial investment up to 300k.  Would you go all in using that?  I would not have much of a backup plan for retirement if this is the case, but like I said I have a high risk profile.  I do believe this is once in a lifetime.
4. If I want to pursue some alt coins, and again, I have a high risk profile, what % mix would you recommend?  33% alt-coins and 66% bitcoin, or 50-50, etc? 


Thank you!!

[Lorence.xD]

To be fair with you, if you are to invest in bitcoin right now, I am pretty sure that you will earn a really big interest when you hodl for a long time, maybe you can multiply that investment tenfold in 10 years time or maybe not, you said that you have a high risk profile so I don't you don't have to worry about it, just invest because you will never know that next day the prices are higher.

[bitbollo]

it's full of guru and other influencers ready to track the next record of bitcoin by a short period of time.
I think you can just forget their predictions, because 99% are just wrong. Ok price can increase after "some" time but when? and meanwhile price can collapse drastically?
I mean, in the past we have seen strong collapse in the value after touching ATH.
Select a wrong time for make an investment, it's a wrong move able to erase any profit or it can requires months or years to achieve a profit.
I don't think go "all in" in this phase is a wise solution. Price has already seen a skyrocket increase (500% in one year). Ok we are all bullish but this not means price can growth with the same ratio in another year (or two...)

About retirement funds... if these funds give you a future pension it's better save for this. If you feel confident exchange a small part...

Last but not least, altcoins suggestion... I made an experiment taking in account some "suggested coins" from this topic
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2106360.0 "The next 100x or 1000x coin",
(people here trying to guess/suggest the coin that could receive a big pump during end of 2017 early 2018)

At December 2020, it means after 3 years, I get following results:
13,18% Reported a positive evaluation.
10.83% Reported a 0 (total loss)
the others just negative results (prices go down).

(full post here https://www.publish0x.com/bitbollo-cryptocurrencies-blog/a-depth-analysis-of-bitcointalkorg-speculation-thread-the-ne-xpnnjwq )

Ok some altcoins have a positive outlook in a long run. But this is around 1 each 9 project!
Slightly better, 1 each 10 project can be a COMPLETE FALL (0 value!).
Even a positive result doesn't mean a better result then bitcoin itself!

[Chato1977]

Since you have already mentioned being a High Risk profile so why need to ask about 1-2 and 5 years? why not lets Just talk about the 10 years estimated Profit?

- Bitcoin had increased Its Value since 11 years ago to thousand and thousand % increase.

- Bitcoin had Proven recovering from the Deepest fall to the highest gain.

- So now How much would you expect Bitcoin  reached up to 10 years?

I am Looking for surely more than 1 million dollars each?

[mk4]

1. There's really no way to know how much returns we could potentially get, but 5x over 10 years should be pretty realistic.

2. I prefer doing lump sum investments. I'd recommend lump sum, that is if you know for sure that you wouldn't panic sell if ever a huge drop comes.

3. I wouldn't go that far honestly. I have quite a high risk profile myself, but withdrawing a retirement fund is just straight-off irresponsible.

4. "High risk profile" is still a huge spectrum. Two people with "high risk profiles" could still have far different allocation percentages. I'm afraid this is something that you should decide yourself.

[Mpamaegbu]

Honestly OP, you're the true definition of unsafe risk. Apart from waiting this long to invest in Bitcoin (which you should've done earlier, anyway) you're talking about doubling the initial mapped out $150,000 (which I think it's high risk already at this time). Don't you fear that you may even be buying at the very top just like those who did in 2017 at ATH? Besides, if you're looking at hodling for as long as 10 years why the sudden rush to buy now? Remember, there is going to be a bear rally by next year. I say this from experience. I think you should just keep your $150,000 in a cooler for buy during the bear season or if you must buy now just do a split of that cash into three and invest one part.

[pooya87]

1. I would expect price to reach $400k to $500k this year and in 4-5 years reach $1 million so it means 589%-762% in 2021 and 1624% in 4-5 years. But there is no guarantee!
2. I don't usually like cost averaging but since we are in an accumulation phase that there is a chance of seeing dips during these stages you could place some low ball buy orders for a better entry point. You could also wait for the next direction to become clear before you jump in, like seeing the resistance break first.
3. No, never. Going all in is very risky not just because of bitcoin price but you may lose your keys or some disaster like that and lose all your money. It is also always best to diversify.
4. I would never recommend "investing" in altcoins ever simply because I don't see any "long term" potential in any of them. If you are good at day trading and could gain some insight into how to play the pump and dump game (ride the pump and exit before the dump) then you could start trading altcoins with a small amount of bitcoin so that you can increase the amount of bitcoin you own.

[Anonylz]

~

I have a few specific questions and I know it's just your opinions.

1.  Starting today on April 10, 2021 if I invested 150k in bitcoin, how much do the gurus expect me to have in 1, 2, 5, and 10 years?  Like would any idiot who just invested today and didn't sell expect a 5x increase within the next 10 years?
2.  I would use dollar cost averaging, but over what time horizon?  Invest 150k over the next six months?  Or just invest it all today since we all know it's going up?
3.  I could withdraw the old retirement fund and get the initial investment up to 300k.  Would you go all in using that?  I would not have much of a backup plan for retirement if this is the case, but like I said I have a high risk profile.  I do believe this is once in a lifetime.
4. If I want to pursue some alt coins, and again, I have a high risk profile, what % mix would you recommend?  33% alt-coins and 66% bitcoin, or 50-50, etc?  


Thank you!!

1. $150k is reasonably good amount for 10 years stretch investment, depending on how btc performed from now till 10 years I would say it is very likely you can 5x or more, again nothing is certain.

2. I would invest 50% now and 50% in next few months (only if there will be correction otherwise it could be a lot higher)

3.Better to always have a plan B so won't be advising you to take that route except you are ready to take whatever outcome, it could be at your advantage or disadvantage.

4. Better to go %70 - 30% because as you know alts investment have a higher risk but also a good chance of making high roi than btc, but to be on a safer side a higher % on btc will be much better,  with btc there is less risk and safer.

And lastly, always remember to put in what you can afford to lose,  best of luck with your journey in crypto, Welcome on board.  

[adzino]

Hi there,

First, a little about me.  I am a first-time investor to crypto.  However, I have had a few stocks (Roth IRA stuff) and tech stocks and overall have made the average 8% return over about 8 years.  I now have 150,000 to scrape together.

Principles:  I have a high risk profile.  I am patient up to 10 years.  I could buy and hold.  I do believe this 2021 is a once in a lifetime year.  The gains next cycle will be much less in 4 years.
I do believe that earlier is always better.  Did I say I have a high risk profile?

I have a few specific questions and I know it's just your opinions.

1.  Starting today on April 10, 2021 if I invested 150k in bitcoin, how much do the gurus expect me to have in 1, 2, 5, and 10 years?  Like would any idiot who just invested today and didn't sell expect a 5x increase within the next 10 years?
2.  I would use dollar cost averaging, but over what time horizon?  Invest 150k over the next six months?  Or just invest it all today since we all know it's going up?
3.  I could withdraw the old retirement fund and get the initial investment up to 300k.  Would you go all in using that?  I would not have much of a backup plan for retirement if this is the case, but like I said I have a high risk profile.  I do believe this is once in a lifetime.
4. If I want to pursue some alt coins, and again, I have a high risk profile, what % mix would you recommend?  33% alt-coins and 66% bitcoin, or 50-50, etc? 


Thank you!!

1. You are asking a question no one can answer. You maybe making 2x or 15x in next 10 years, or maybe make nothing and lose everything (highly unlikely but still a possibility). But if bitcoin still exists and is more everyone is more friendlier towards it, then in the long run, you will be making some very good profit!
2. Maybe invest it over the next few months? Every time you see a small dip, buy some to maximize your profit.
3 Do you need to? Even though you have a high risk profile, it is not wise to take risks that might ruin your life.
4. If i were you, I would put most in bitcoin and some in altcoins. Maybe 25:75?

[Pandji02]

All in is always too risky strategy. It's your choise and all but i wouldn't do that. Keep by yourself at least amount of money that you can live 1-2 months with.

[kotajikikox]

All in is always too risky strategy. It's your choise and all but i wouldn't do that. Keep by yourself at least amount of money that you can live 1-2 months with.

All In is risky if you are talking shitcoins .

But With OP's capacity ? clearly accepted that he is a high Risk person and willing to Hold for 10 years?

Bitcoin is the Perfect choice for him and also a Perfect decision to HODL.

1 year holding has no assurance , But 3 years onwards? that means another Halving will be in part so how much we can assess His profit for that long period?

[michellee]

I prefer to suggest to hold bitcoin for 5-10 years later as in the 1-2 years will not moves too often or significant, but I do not know since we can not know what will happen in the next 1-2 years later. If you only care to buy bitcoin, then you can buy and hold and do not think about the volatility of bitcoin price.

You can split your money for six months from now and I think you can get bitcoin at various price which can reduce your average buy price. I do not think that it is better to use all of the money in just one time because we know that bitcoin price will always go up and down, so diversify your order buy in any range of the price will be better.

$300k is a lot of money, but you can use it to invest in bitcoin and you can have many bitcoin. But splitting into 2 parts or more will be better just in case if bitcoin price drops significantly. That will be up to you.

If you want to hold altcoin, you can use 50-50 to buy, but altcoin will be good for short term and not long term. But you can hold it together with your bitcoin for 5-10 years.

[BITCOIN4X]

No one can guarantee that in the next 5 or 10 years, bitcoin will return 2x, 3x, or 10x the value you invested today. Bitcoin is a future asset and its price is very volatile. Although institutional investor appear to be providing strong support, there is no guarantee that they will not sell their bitcoin in the next 5 or 10 years. Since anything is possible, you may need to have a good portfolio for your investment. All decision are yours, and I bet people wouldn't dare give you financial advice because cryptocurrencies are full of volatility.

[elisabetheva]

No one can guarantee that in the next 5 or 10 years, bitcoin will return 2x, 3x, or 10x the value you invested today. Bitcoin is a future asset and its price is very volatile. Although institutional investor appear to be providing strong support, there is no guarantee that they will not sell their bitcoin in the next 5 or 10 years. Since anything is possible, you may need to have a good portfolio for your investment. All decision are yours, and I bet people wouldn't dare give you financial advice because cryptocurrencies are full of volatility.

all of course convincing that bitcoin is unpredictable and no one can control, so I agree that if someone cannot guarantee what will happen for a long time like the next 5-10 years, because usually only for the halving period, namely Once in 4 years, it can be analyzed from the past halving movements.

as you said that there are indeed many investors from large companies who are currently actively investing their funds for investment in bitcoin, because they think that bitcoin will continue to increase, but until when we do not know because it could be that bitcoin will experience a major correction because all companies and investors give up bitcoin because they feel lucky. then it will happen that the price may go down.

so because bitcoin and crypto in general are unpredictable, of course the risk that will occur could be large, even if it is profitable it is also quite large.

[dkbit98]

1.  Starting today on April 10, 2021 if I invested 150k in bitcoin, how much do the gurus expect me to have in 1, 2, 5, and 10 years?  Like would any idiot who just invested today and didn't sell expect a 5x increase within the next 10 years?

Nobody knows exact returns you can have, and Bitcoin like everything else have cycles in uptrend and down trend, but with current money printing and inflation I am expecting everything to speed up including cycles.
Best time to invest in Bitcoin would be in downtrend or dollar cost averaging, but my amateur prediction for next 5 years is that Bitcoin could go to $400k but with huge volatility.

2.  I would use dollar cost averaging, but over what time horizon?  Invest 150k over the next six months?  Or just invest it all today since we all know it's going up?

Dollar cost averaging is much safer and proven strategy and going all in is much more risky so you need to decide what you want more safety or risk.

3.  I could withdraw the old retirement fund and get the initial investment up to 300k.  Would you go all in using that?  I would not have much of a backup plan for retirement if this is the case, but like I said I have a high risk profile.  I do believe this is once in a lifetime.

I would never do that, I would never sell a house or borrow money from other people just to buy Bitcoin or do anything crazy like that.
This is pure gamble and few years ago it would pay off much more than now.

4. If I want to pursue some alt coins, and again, I have a high risk profile, what % mix would you recommend?  33% alt-coins and 66% bitcoin, or 50-50, etc?

I would not buy and hold any altcoins now especially that new shit coming out every day, but if you really want it I would keep Bitcoin at 90% and play with rest 10%

[LoyceV]

I now have 150,000 to scrape together.

Principles:  I have a high risk profile.  I am patient up to 10 years.  I could buy and hold.  I do believe this 2021 is a once in a lifetime year.  The gains next cycle will be much less in 4 years.

I like the Bitcoin "Rainbow" Price Chart:


I wish I would have seen it earlier. Obviously, past results are no guarantee for the future, but I've also seen history repeat itself several times.

1.  Starting today on April 10, 2021 if I invested 150k in bitcoin, how much do the gurus expect me to have in 1, 2, 5, and 10 years?  Like would any idiot who just invested today and didn't sell expect a 5x increase within the next 10 years?

For 5 or 10 years, I have more confidence in Bitcoin than euro or dollar. I'm not doing short-term predictions, but for 5 to 10 years, I expect a Bitcoin price anywhere between $5k and $5M. Let's put it this way, you can lose 90+%, but you can gain much more than that.
That being said, I wouldn't invest everything. A balanced portfolio has lower risk. You say you have a high-risk profile, but 10 years stock in a bull market is low-risk compared to the volatility on the crypto market.

2.  I would use dollar cost averaging, but over what time horizon?  Invest 150k over the next six months?  Or just invest it all today since we all know it's going up?

Another reason to diversify your portfolio is to have cash at hand to "buy the dip". DCA is great if the price drops, but not the best if the price keeps rising.

3.  I could withdraw the old retirement fund and get the initial investment up to 300k.  Would you go all in using that?  I would not have much of a backup plan for retirement if this is the case, but like I said I have a high risk profile.  I do believe this is once in a lifetime.

If Bitcoin goes up 100-fold, you don't need to have $30M. You'll do just fine with $3M.
But if Bitcoin goes belly up, you'll love to have $270k left for your retirement.
Note that I'm terrible at investing, I'm risk-averse and irrational (I tend to hold whatever I have and have a hard time diversifying), so take my words of caution any way you want

4. If I want to pursue some alt coins, and again, I have a high risk profile, what % mix would you recommend?  33% alt-coins and 66% bitcoin, or 50-50, etc?

Altcoins are smaller and therefore can go up a lot faster. But most of them disappear. Compare the top ones now with 5 and 10 years ago, and you'll see most of them don't last 5 years. Drops of 99% are quite common. There's also this:

tokens, like altcoins, ICOs, Forks, DeFis and NFTs, are solely created to make the creator rich. They missed out on Bitcoin when it was cheap, create their own BS, spam it, hype it, and due to FOMO and greed people give them their real Bitcoins in exchange for something that will be forgotten again 2 years from now. Then just rinse and repeat!

Before buying into crypto, make sure you know what you're doing, and know where you're going to store them. Unlike stock, I wouldn't keep Bitcoin with a broker (exchange) for long term. Learn how to keep it safe by yourself.

[20kevin20]

Here's my take, but remember this isn't financial advice!

I would personally NOT recommend to invest in alts at this point. They're all popping up like popcorn and last time I remember this happened, a huge dump vs the BTC parity followed. Should BTC enter a winter crash like 2015, you could just adjust your DCA rather than selling in panic. It's tempting to sell when you see your $150k go down to $15k in a matter of days, but so far BTC has rewarded every single strong hand so why sell?

Investing in alts is a quite bad choice, unless you want to daytrade and play with the oscillating BTC parities. Alts are very, very deceiving because you see $60,000 and then a $0.0001 coin and think: "Should this $0.0001 coin pop, I'll be getting rich!".

If you put all of this with USD parities in a chart, you'd see it's not that bad. Better than your 8 years of waiting, right? Someone invested $1k in the top 10 cryptos back in 2017, on the 31st of December. With USD parities, here's how it looks:


But then, I wondered: what if the guy had invested solely in BTC instead? Well, look at the results. Here's how, the same investment with the same alts but with BTC parities instead of USD, looks as a result:


Yes. Versus Bitcoin, a significant % of the alts had a downfall of over 90%. I'd say it's not worth it. That's unless you're lucky to find a "gem" among all those shitcoins that's bound to increase hundreds of times in price before Bitcoin does.

[LoyceV]

so far BTC has rewarded every single strong hand so why sell?

I like to put it like this: Every (part of a) Bitcoin I ever sold, would have been worth more now if I would have kept it.
But there are always reasons to sell, in my case it was to pay taxes. I didn't want to risk Bitcoin dropping, while I still have to pay the same amount in tax.

But don't sell all your Bitcoins! I like this 2015 post:

If bitcoin reaches $10,000 it will have to be because the fiat currencies of the world are tumbling to worthlessness via a hyperinflation type scenario and bitcoin is the safe haven, which if you know anything about the current monetary systems of the world, you know this is inevitable. (there have been 3800 fiat currencies throughout history and EVERY SINGLE LAST ONE has crashed to worthlessness; a value of zero) Why would you then sell all of your sound money (Bitcoin) for a bunch of fiat money that is inevitably becoming worthless? I don't understand the logic in doing that.

The same argument is still valid, just add a few zeros to the $10,000.

[20kevin20]

The same argument is still valid, just add a few zeros to the $10,000.

Oh, and the real inflation and trouble hasn't even started yet!

Also, from this year on, BTC annual inflation rate will drop for the first time below USD's. This is a historical moment and I think the potential outcome of this or the next halving is absolutely crazy.

[LoyceV]

I think the potential outcome of this or the next halving is absolutely crazy.

I expect the each halving to have less effect on scarcity than the previous one.

(ignore the "you are here")

(image source: Cointelegraph.com)

As the inflation becomes lower, halvings matter less. Say 15 years from now, when the block reward drops from 0.78 BTC to 0.39 BTC, it really doesn't matter much. There will be a continuous pressure caused by scarcity, much stronger than it was in 2020, and much more continuous because the block reward becomes so small compared to the amount of Bitcoin in circulation.

Just a thought: could this at some point force the FED to abandon their inflation goal, and compete for stable purchasing power of the dollar?