Bitcoin will not be able to stay above $40k for 10 consecutive days ever again

[aioc]

Easy call

It seems you got this one correct, until now, the price of Bitcoin has not reached the $40k mark, but if you got this one correct I doubt in the next ten days you'll still get it right, the price is now moving fine and there's a possibility that it will reach $40k in a few days now, the market is really struggling but we are still in a bull trend.

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[SaveOurSea]

there is no analysis that always works, as well as this, yes I hope,
because if Bitcoin can't stay above $40k it will certainly be very worrying, because maybe bears can take over bullish,
don't let your careless if you still hold altcoins and bitcoins

[bitcoinPsycho]

What's the mathematical proof for that? Aren't you a proud "mathematician" of bitcoin prices going down and never coming back? How come all of your replies don't even have hint of math, you can't just call it mathematical or scientific without providing any evidence.

Yeah proof please . Show us the maths

[proudhon]

It's too technical to produce here and requires sophisticated knowledge of Chinese and Russian mathematical models and confirmed news sources.

[bitcoinPsycho]

It's too technical to produce here and requires sophisticated knowledge of Chinese and Russian mathematical models and confirmed news sources.

Ha ha ha ok

[proudhon]

It's too technical to produce here and requires sophisticated knowledge of Chinese and Russian mathematical models and confirmed news sources.

Ha ha ha ok

Hopefully you understand now. One thing worth looking into is confirming. It has a technical definition which I established some years ago. I can confirm that my maths and science are confirmed.

[bitcoinPsycho]

It's too technical to produce here and requires sophisticated knowledge of Chinese and Russian mathematical models and confirmed news sources.

Ha ha ha ok

Hopefully you understand now. One thing worth looking into is confirming. It has a technical definition which I established some years ago. I can confirm that my maths and science are confirmed.

Please use this thread to only post confirmed news from confirmed sources to help everyone understand what is obvious - bitcoin is in a downtrend to oblivion.  

My latest find comes, of course, from official sources in China and details how the Chinese government is planning a massive 99% attack on the blockchain.  I'll put the main points below, but anyone can check the facts from the source:

1.  Chinese offials delcare bitcoin a global financial virus
2.  Officials from other nations are in agreement with china China, including the US
3.  The Chinese government has millions of petahashes ready to deploy on the blockchain to destroy the protocol
4.  In addition to attacking the blockchian, China will sell all their mined bitcoins on MtGox

It's obvious bitcoin has gone as far as it can go, but any other thoughts about this devastating news?

Reading between the lines you are completely wrong as history has CONFIRMED

BTC Price on 12 January 2014  $863  Today $36,800
?..

[bitcoinPsycho]

Now I understand 

[proudhon]

Still good

[hotpassion]

We are pretty sure Proudhon will open other threads such as "Bitcoin will not be able to stay above $100k for 10 consecutive days ever again" and "Bitcoin will not be able to stay above $110k for 10 consecutive days ever again"...by the end of this year. Let's wait and see...

[LogitechMouse]

Still good

No analysis whatsoever.
Just pure prediction.
Predicted that Bitcoin will not stay above $30,000 for 10 consecutive days and it got broke. Now $40,000 again.

I don't know if its a bit sarcastic or there is a double meaning behind it. Anyway, just continue what you are doing . Many fell into your sarcastic predictions .

[rhodelmabanal]

Still good

No analysis whatsoever.
Just pure prediction.
Predicted that Bitcoin will not stay above $30,000 for 10 consecutive days and it got broke. Now $40,000 again.

I don't know if its a bit sarcastic or there is a double meaning behind it. Anyway, just continue what you are doing . Many fell into your sarcastic predictions .

We are free to predict, but we also need to be more wise on making decision. Because predictions may become right or wrong but the most important is that we will not invest all we have because we believe in others prediction we need to buy or sell depending on our own limitation and our way of making profit because if we did it wrong we will surely loss.

[Ararbermas]

Bitcoin is always struggling because of some greedy investors, and for sure it will never break 40k again if such activity will keep happening every time bitcoin were gradually gaining strength to increase. In fact there's no bad news when it comes to it after the sudden increased in the market. So what do you guys thinking why this is happening?.because seems this situation isn't a correction anymore. Lol

[thecodebear]

The days in which Bitcoin will ever be under $40k are getting very limited. Very possible this month is the last time we see sub-$40k prices. Exciting times, especially when a year ago the price was still languishing at $10k.

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin is always struggling because of some greedy investors, and for sure it will never break 40k again if such activity will keep happening every time bitcoin were gradually gaining strength to increase. In fact there's no bad news when it comes to it after the sudden increased in the market. So what do you guys thinking why this is happening?.because seems this situation isn't a correction anymore. Lol

Bitcoin is whaling it is smoking hot for anyone that is mining it right now.


here is the math

all time  high diff = 25.04 price at this 2 week time  May 13-May 29 was 33-50

current diff = 14.45 price at this 2 week time is 38-41


to understand this above

25.04/14.45 = 1.73

so for every coin earned back in may you now earn 1.73


so pick the low price for now of 38k x 1.73 = 65.74 k


what was the price during peak diff 33-50. so you are better off now even if you look at peak number of 50k during the May 13-May 29

Miners are whaling smoking hot.

go back more to April 14 coins were 63.39k

diff was 23.13

so today 23.13/14.45 = a factor of 1.60. plug in current price this jump of 39,288 and

39,288 x 1.60 = 62,887


so a miner right now is under 1 % off  the  same daily profit spot of April 14 when coins were 63.39k


62.887/63.39 = 99.2%


So it is not bear at all for miners..


for traders that purchased above 50k its is almost bear

for traders that purchased above 63k it is close to bear

But you can't leave out hodl they do not care at all.

so this is not a bear.

In order for it to be bear we need to get up and over 70k we diff to climb back to 25.05T

we then need the crash in price and diff need to be stable or growing


look at dec 2017 20k price and diff was 1.93

and in oct 2018 7k  price and diff was 7.32 t


April 2021 64k price with  diff of 25.04 t
Aug 2021  39k price diff of 14.44 t


is no where close to bear.




to quote Chris Rock "Lil Kim is richer than Oprah"

a reference to a Chris Rock stand up bit. IIRC

[eckmar]

This thread is an example of why you never trust idiots to make predictions like these without any research. Interested in what OP has to say about his mathematical models LOL.

[NeuroticFish]

This thread is an example of why you never trust idiots to make predictions like these without any research. Interested in what OP has to say about his mathematical models LOL.

His "models" are very precise (/s). I call them "numbers out of the belly".
The accuracy is very well shown by his other post:

So there it is, the highest price bitcoin will ever see -- ~$58k $60.4k $61.8k $63.2k $63.7k $63.8k $63.9k $64.5k $64.9k $67.0k $67.8k $68.5k $69k.

Now, I just don't take him serious. But unfortunately some do. Some others tag him for trolling; it's clearly deserved too.

[JayJuanGee]

This thread is an example of why you never trust idiots to make predictions like these without any research. Interested in what OP has to say about his mathematical models LOL.

His "models" are very precise (/s). I call them "numbers out of the belly".
The accuracy is very well shown by his other post:

So there it is, the highest price bitcoin will ever see -- ~$58k $60.4k $61.8k $63.2k $63.7k $63.8k $63.9k $64.5k $64.9k $67.0k $67.8k $68.5k $69k.

Now, I just don't take him serious. But unfortunately some do. Some others tag him for trolling; it's clearly deserved too.

I do tend to appreciate looking at the bottoms rather than the tops, but even when we are looking at bottoms we have to be careful to make those kinds of statements, such as "bitcoin will never spend more than 10 consecutive days below  $40k ever again" - even though we might be pretty damned safe to say that about $20k or maybe even have a quite a bit of safety to say that about $30k.. but as we go up to higher and higher BTC price bottom levels it becomes dangerous to make those kinds of statements about the bottom - even though at some point, it will seem to become pretty safe to make those kinds of bottom statements.

The top, on the other hand, seems to have no limits, even though sometimes it may well take a while to get to the top numbers, including getting back to $69k, as you mentioned that current top number NeuroticFish.

By the way, I find the weekly moving average numbers to be great lagging indicators regarding the bottom.. and tend to work with 208, 104, 52 and 26, which would be the average BTC trading prices for 4 years, 2 years, 1 year and 6 months respectively, so now they are at $17,500, $27,500, $44,700 and $46,700 respectively. 

So historically in bitcoin sometimes even the lower and longer-term weekly moving average prices do end up getting reached and breached.. so the longer the period, the more conservative it is in terms of how long the BTC price might be able to stay below such price points, whether 10 days or not.. or whether we might be in a bear market or just experiencing some kind of short-term crash... which sometimes can take a bit of a longer vision of bitcoin and maybe some time studying and analyzing to attempt to appreciate these kinds of price bottom matters and how long the BTC price might be able to stay below certain weekly moving average price points.   

[NeuroticFish]

I do tend to appreciate looking at the bottoms rather than the tops, but even when we are looking at bottoms we have to be careful to make those kinds of statements, such as "bitcoin will never spend more than 10 consecutive days below  $40k ever again" - even though we might be pretty damned safe to say that about $20k or maybe even have a quite a bit of safety to say that about $30k.. but as we go up to higher and higher BTC price bottom levels it becomes dangerous to make those kinds of statements about the bottom - even though at some point, it will seem to become pretty safe to make those kinds of bottom statements.

The top, on the other hand, seems to have no limits, even though sometimes it may well take a while to get to the top numbers, including getting back to $69k, as you mentioned that current top number NeuroticFish.

By the way, I find the weekly moving average numbers to be great lagging indicators regarding the bottom.. and tend to work with 208, 104, 52 and 26, which would be the average BTC trading prices for 4 years, 2 years, 1 year and 6 months respectively, so now they are at $17,500, $27,500, $44,700 and $46,700 respectively. 

So historically in bitcoin sometimes even the lower and longer-term weekly moving average prices do end up getting reached and breached.. so the longer the period, the more conservative it is in terms of how long the BTC price might be able to stay below such price points, whether 10 days or not.. or whether we might be in a bear market or just experiencing some kind of short-term crash... which sometimes can take a bit of a longer vision of bitcoin and maybe some time studying and analyzing to attempt to appreciate these kinds of price bottom matters and how long the BTC price might be able to stay below certain weekly moving average price points.   

Nice theory for those who have the patience to read it.

Unfortunately the troll will not care about the theory and will not be careful with his predictions, which are targeted towards those afraid they'll lost their profit in every dip - big or small. And, sadly, I expect some (maybe too many) of those will read the title and maybe the first post, not much else.

A proper prediction for bitcoin is based on some logic (TA) and it's for short term. If a prediction comes with "never", or, like we see int he news, with no "deadline"... those are made only to draw attention and nothing else. People should learn to not take them serious.

[adaseb]

I remember reading this thread back in May and didn’t think it would come true but the OP was correct until end of Summer. Basically it went below $40K and had trouble closing above it until it bottomed out in July and then at the end of July is had the rally all the way to the new ATH.

Like the above poster has said, the top don’t really matter. In Bitcoin the tops are difficult to predict and almost nobody can sell the top, what matters is the bottom and I think except for March 2020 and 2014, Bitcoin usually never had a yearly low lower than the previous yearly low.