How low can the next bear market go?

[Commie]

Disclaimer: I'm not saying we're in it already, nor I'm saying opposite. Just thoughts.

I was kinda curious and attempted to search historical price data for 2013, 2014, 2017 and now.  Most sites (even respected ones) don't reflect absolute correct numbers, so if yours differ please don't rub it in too hard LOL. I was hoping to find some sort of proportion basing on past pumps, but the numbers I came with are rather chaotic, maybe someone else will have thoughts on this, too.

So:
2013: 13.5 => 182 = 70                       Grow x13 fall x2.6
2014: 120 =>1019 => 201                   Grow x8.5 fall x5
2017: 826 => 19499 => 3232              Grow x24 fall x6
Sep. 2020-21: 10245 =>64800 =>??    Grow x6.3 fall ??

At this point I failed to find any proportions to base estimates on (apart from the fact that X low > X-1 high).  What do you think?

[Edited] If 64800 isn't going to be a new ATH and bitcoin will go higher then it's two unknown values, makes it even more interesting for a mathematician.

[rodskee]

this is what I love in crypto market ,  when the market starts to spike up then the community will talk about How high it can be but when the price moves like now then this kind of topic starts to rise.

How low market bear can ?

the market starts falling like 30,000 early today so if that would be the lowest then that means x2?

anyway i don't see it coming so i will not bring my speculative for now because all i wanna see is growth .

[BlackHatCoiner]

I don't believe that this drop means an indication of a bear market if you say so. Bitcoin did make these falls, but in this case, I think that we should only consider the halvings. It's the closest we can get to the final result of a bull market. Thus, I'd skip 2014, because there was no halving; it was just the year after the first one.

So:
2013: 13.5 => 182 = 70                       Grow x13 fall x2.6
2014: 120 =>1019 => 201                   Grow x8.5 fall x5
2017: 826 => 19499 => 3232              Grow x24 fall x6
Sep. 2020-21: 10245 =>64800 =>??    Grow x6.3 fall ??

That would be true IF this bull run was over. You can't really know for sure that the $64k are the top of it, in contrast with 2017 and 2013 that we are now ensured how they ended. So the growfall may not be x6.3, I actually believe that it'll be ~x20. Kicking the $100k would seem impossible to me a year ago, but now? Nope.

Let's take a look on the halvings' chart. We are, right now, on the red part and you can notice these similar drops happened on the previous halvings too. Judging from this chart, I can gently say that this may be your last chance to buy Bitcoin at this price.

Also, I observe that history repeats itself as I recently mentioned. Back in 2017, we had McAfee, now Elon Musk.

[MrPB3N]

Let's take a look on the halvings' chart. We are, right now, on the red part and you can notice that similar drops happened on the previous halvings too. Judging from this chart, I can gently say that this may be your last chance to buy Bitcoin at this price.

Can you explain this chart a bit? I'm not quite sure I understand it.

[Commie]

this is what I love in crypto market ,  when the market starts to spike up then the community will talk about How high it can be but when the price moves like now then this kind of topic starts to rise.

Actually I wanted to make these calculations for a while, it's just today that I had literally nothing to do for an hour and made them

That would be true IF this bull run was over. You can't really know for sure that the $64k are the top of it, in contrast with 2017 and 2013 that we are now ensured how they ended. So the growfall may not be x6.3, I actually believe that it'll be ~x20. Kicking the $100k would seem impossible to me a year ago, but now? Nope.

Sure, but in that case it would be 2 unknowns in the equation instead of one. Oh and read the disclaimer again

Let's take a look on the halvings' chart. We are, right now, on the red part and you can notice that similar drops happened on the previous halvings too. Judging from this chart, I can gently say that this may be your last chance to buy Bitcoin at this price.

Now, that's something interesting to look at. Another prospective with similarities that can be clearly seen. Thanks for sharing.

Also, I observe that history repeats itself as I recently mentioned. Back in 2017, we had McAfee, now Elon Musk.

Yeah, in one of the other topic replies I was wondering who is it going to be next time LOL

[tranthidung]

2013: 13.5 => 182 = 70                       Grow x13 fall x2.6
2014: 120 =>1019 => 201                   Grow x8.5 fall x5
2017: 826 => 19499 => 3232              Grow x24 fall x6
Sep. 2020-21: 10245 =>64800 =>??    Grow x6.3 fall ??

I don't check price data but I assume the base prices for your fall calculations are All time highs. It is key.

• If $64,800 is the all time high for Bitcoin in 2021, ok go ahead with your speculation and comparison
• If $64,800 is not the all time high in 2021, all comparisons above are not relevant

If you want to compare, please compare yesterday Black Wednesday with the massacre before the Segwit in 2017. It is my small hint for you, for this comparison and for future of Bitcoin, just in this year.

The chart from @BlackHatCoiner makes sense too. Please connect dots.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Can you explain this chart a bit? I'm not quite sure I understand it.

Which part? The chart shows how we would end up this year, judging by the previous halvings. They all start from $20k if you notice it, this is why. It compares the bull markets by colors.

[buwaytress]

Not to say I wasn't slightly worried over yesterday but yeah, actually, the pullbacks of 2017 ( wasn't around to wirness anything in the previous cycle) was probably a lot more nervy. Even last year's March event still pretty fresh in my mind.

Yesterday really didn't feel that bad at all in comparison. Maybe it's just a case of getting used to it (which isn't necessarily a good thing for everyone but for my perspective quite useful) but I almost feel like I'm quite ready for more. Heart's a bit stronger than I thought heh.

And really, 62k. That's still way too small for Bitcoin to be done haha.

[Commie]

If you want to compare, please compare yesterday Black Wednesday with the massacre before the Segwit in 2017. It is my small hint for you, for this comparison and for future of Bitcoin, just in this year.

Are you talking about $3000 to $2000 decline in June-July? Yeah that's 33%.

[wack slacker]

I think 30k yesterday is the lowest drop that Bitcoin has touched, in the near term Bitcoin will continue to increase in price until $100k and $200k.
I understand that in this 2021 hedge funds have bought a lot of Bitcoin and Microstrategy has bought billions of dollars of Bitcoin with an average of $43k so they won't let Bitcoin drop in price and take their losses. Bitcoin market size has expanded to PayPal, banks so I don't think the bear market will come so soon.

[michellee]

We already saw the bitcoin price go down at $30k, but we never know if the price will go down for more or it will bounce to the high price. We can only wait for what will happen to the bitcoin price. You need to know that bitcoin price can go to any lower price, even it can go down below $30k, so you can prepare yourself if the price really goes down for that price. But I think this year, bitcoin price will still be at the bull market as the market will be back to the current situations before, and we will have a chance to make a profit again.

[BrewMaster]

it will either be a very short one that lasts a week or two before price goes back up and continues toward $100k or nothing at all and price reverses right now and heads towards a much higher price like it did back in May 2017 and the bear market starts in 2022.

[Jazzi Mahesh]

Bear markets are a fact of life. However, it can be hard to anticipate them, know how long they will last, or how severely they will impact stock prices. Because bear markets are a natural part of market cycles, not only can you survive them, you can also position yourself to benefit from them.

[Kabul]

Hard to tell. We could be in the middle of the bear market right now. I think it is the best to learn something new rather than wait for the next bear market. There are a lot to learn and knowledge to obtain in the cryptocurrency world. Sooner or later, our world will shift from traditional to fully digital. Money can get in and get out. The easy you make it, the easy it will go away

[Altryist]

it will either be a very short one that lasts a week or two before price goes back up and continues toward $100k or nothing at all and price reverses right now and heads towards a much higher price like it did back in May 2017 and the bear market starts in 2022.

The price will rise, but I do not know if such a rapid rise should be expected. In summer, the market often becomes inactive, and we can see further growth only by the end of summer, or else in autumn. In any case, I expect that growth will continue, this is not the end yet and I expect even greater growth than we saw at the beginning of the year.

[online73]

I'm used to believing only my feelings and not schemes that misfire from time to time. And the feeling I have is that the price of Bitcoin next time will drop to the region of 17000-18000, perhaps this is not an achievable dream, but the fact that Bitcoin will cost, sooner or later, more than $ 100,000 - I am sure of that. I just wish everyone good luck and believe more in Bitcoin, and not in manipulating the crypto-currency market.

[nightrider]

I think the market is on a steep decline and could go below 40000$. Elon Musk a billionaire on bitcoin has announced the sale of 1.5 billion bitcoins this has created a strong effect. Bitcoin market declines investors have sold bitcoins to avoid losses. I think it will take quite a while for the market to recover.

[Kelvinid]

I think the market is on a steep decline and could go below 40000$. Elon Musk a billionaire on bitcoin has announced the sale of 1.5 billion bitcoins this has created a strong effect. Bitcoin market declines investors have sold bitcoins to avoid losses. I think it will take quite a while for the market to recover.

Well, it has to say that the short effect of what Elon Musk did is done, we're getting back high now. We're supposed to think that it was the beginning of the bearish season but somehow, people are still quite not affected with the news, instead they keep calm and hold. It is just the sentiment that Elon Musk isn't enough to turn the market down to deep again.

And it brings us another surprised that there is another company buying Bitcoin during the market correction and easily uplift the market price.
And to see for another bear market? It still a wild guess for everyone.

[Obito]

We don't know how low will the prices go, we just have to see what's next for the bitcoin prices, we will only see it when it eventually happens and we passed by that low price and then that's when we know that it will be the lowest price when it is already too late.

[TastyChillySauce00]

I think the market is on a steep decline and could go below 40000$. Elon Musk a billionaire on bitcoin has announced the sale of 1.5 billion bitcoins this has created a strong effect. Bitcoin market declines investors have sold bitcoins to avoid losses. I think it will take quite a while for the market to recover.

You're not getting the correct information though, even elon himself has clarified that tesla hasn't sold all of its btc assets even elon trying to shill again by saying tesla has diamond hand.
The thing with current bearish is many big investors actually keep accumulating btc, even the whales who just sold at around the top also accumulating btc back,that alone enough sign that the market gonna take off and reach another ATH
though the market currently shaking so hard but that's normal after getting the price to the point of $60k above.