[Poll] Has the $3 Floor Been Solidified?

[bittenbob]

I notce that the last little while we have yet to go below $3 and there seems to be quite a few coins keeping it there.

I can't help but think that the $3 floor I mentioned earlier has been solidified.

Yeah yeah I know proudhon and Jonathan Ryan Owens, you think we are headed to $1 BTC in an hour  

[ElectricMucus]

If we close somewhat above  it this time I would think so.

In a scenario where we shoot up further and close on 3 this would actually indicate the temporary end of the rally. (Gravestone Doji, Bearish reversal) But any other scenario including stagnation a slight fall or rise would confirm the "3 soldiers" pattern. (Strong bullish continuation)

If we close above 3.2 ... rally time. But its too early to talk about long time reversal.

[bittenbob]

Poll Added

[kjlimo]

Still too many "large players" that can dump & run at any moment.  I'm gonna wait until they dump before I buy again, b/c hopefully we'll get one more chance to buy in at 2.5 or 2, or below.

However, if things shoot up to $5, $10, I'll not be dissappointed.

[trogdorjw73]

I just don't see us ever hitting the double digits in the near term; it will be a slow climb to that point. Right now there are a lot of people with coins from mining that are only selling what they need to cover their power costs, which means around $2 per BTC is break-even. If the price hits $5, they're going to think, "better to sell now and make a healthy profit than to hold longer and end up back at $2." It will take something really big to overcome that IMO. But hey, what do I know? I know mine about 2BTC per day, so maybe the big miners are doing far better and are more bullish in their outlook?

[Stephen Gornick]

The test that matters is over the weekend -- when no wires or other bank-related funding occurs.  Bitcoin has a pattern known as the "weekend dip", though with the rally being fresh it is too soon yet before I would consider putting much on the line for a weekend dip trade (i.e., sell on Wednesday evening/Thursday morning and then buy back if the price starts moving up later in the weekend.)

[ElectricMucus]

I just don't see us ever hitting the double digits in the near term; it will be a slow climb to that point. Right now there are a lot of people with coins from mining that are only selling what they need to cover their power costs, which means around $2 per BTC is break-even. If the price hits $5, they're going to think, "better to sell now and make a healthy profit than to hold longer and end up back at $2." It will take something really big to overcome that IMO. But hey, what do I know? I know mine about 2BTC per day, so maybe the big miners are doing far better and are more bullish in their outlook?

To that comes there are still plenty of early adopters out there which still haven't sold out. And considering the smackdown from 3 was most likely cause by someone like that it will be very tempting for anybody else with a huge wallet. Now it could be that this someone had a special agenda, but who knows..

So in order for that not to happen we would need a massive media frenzy right about now....
The bad thing about this is: If that massive buywall is pulled out we would could drop again very quickly.
It really bugs me that there are a few people out there with that much control over the price.

Pretty much defies the purpose of a decentralized currency, well actually not that but the tendency for it not to change...

[deepceleron]

The test that matters is over the weekend -- when no wires or other bank-related funding occurs.  Bitcoin has a pattern known as the "weekend dip", though with the rally being fresh it is too soon yet before I would consider putting much on the line for a weekend dip trade (i.e., sell on Wednesday evening/Thursday morning and then buy back if the price starts moving up later in the weekend.)

There's $260,000 in mtgox looking to buy Bitcoins at $2.60+, it would take a pretty big sell off of BTC to dip into all that cash, and then it would still be cash in mtgox. Tradehill however only has $4000 of support to that level though, you could go sell crazy on Tradehill and see if mtgox responds... that is what happens to your exchange when you can't get money in or out without difficulty or 3rd party fees...

[ElectricMucus]

The test that matters is over the weekend -- when no wires or other bank-related funding occurs.  Bitcoin has a pattern known as the "weekend dip", though with the rally being fresh it is too soon yet before I would consider putting much on the line for a weekend dip trade (i.e., sell on Wednesday evening/Thursday morning and then buy back if the price starts moving up later in the weekend.)

There's $260,000 in mtgox looking to buy Bitcoins at $2.60+, it would take a pretty big sell off of BTC to dip into all that cash, and then it would still be cash in mtgox. Tradehill however only has $4000 of support to that level though, you could go sell crazy on Tradehill and see if mtgox responds... that is what happens to your exchange when you can't get money in or out without difficulty or 3rd party fees...

Whoever this wall belongs to will sooner or later pull it out, at least that is what happed last time. Once the guy realizes that nobody wants to sell to him he'll move along either pulling out or get with the market.
In case of the latter price could spark ridiculously high for a short period.

Either way he is not getting what he wants: a major part of the bitcoin economy. 

[BadBear]

He's just hoping for another dip, to turn around and sell into the rallies. 

[ElectricMucus]

Damn myself for not understanding this game sooner. Could have saved me some cash. Oh well, there is time, skills acquired and sooner or later I'll have my balance back.

[kjlimo]

The test that matters is over the weekend -- when no wires or other bank-related funding occurs.  Bitcoin has a pattern known as the "weekend dip", though with the rally being fresh it is too soon yet before I would consider putting much on the line for a weekend dip trade (i.e., sell on Wednesday evening/Thursday morning and then buy back if the price starts moving up later in the weekend.)

There's $260,000 in mtgox looking to buy Bitcoins at $2.60+, it would take a pretty big sell off of BTC to dip into all that cash, and then it would still be cash in mtgox. Tradehill however only has $4000 of support to that level though, you could go sell crazy on Tradehill and see if mtgox responds... that is what happens to your exchange when you can't get money in or out without difficulty or 3rd party fees...

Whoever this wall belongs to will sooner or later pull it out, at least that is what happed last time. Once the guy realizes that nobody wants to sell to him he'll move along either pulling out or get with the market.
In case of the latter price could spark ridiculously high for a short period.

Either way he is not getting what he wants: a major part of the bitcoin economy. 

1) "orders" don't mean much until their executed.

2) anytime a trend is identified, the market corrects for it, so the "weekend dip" should go away in the future

3) you're always going to have those "big fish" and if they haven't sold at $32, $20, $10, $5, $3, why would they sell now?  I feel like it's a safe assumption to assume those hoarders are waiting for something bigger, maybe $1,000?

4) trog, you're assumptions about "miners" may be true, but I'm not so sure.  For every person who decides "better sell now" there's someone who's thinking, "hey this looks like a great time to buy."

[memvola]

Either way he is not getting what he wants: a major part of the bitcoin economy. 

I wouldn't put up a huge bid wall if I didn't hold a large sum of BTC already. Buy slowly, encourage bears with high ask walls, and when you feel the market is gaining confidence, support it with a huge bid wall. If they sell into it, you will have even more, and the market forces are hopefully already behind you to help you sail. Though I'm not sure we can call $3 solid until we see a double bottom.

[evoorhees]

It really bugs me that there are a few people out there with that much control over the price.

Pretty much defies the purpose of a decentralized currency, well actually not that but the tendency for it not to change...

Nobody controls the price. Even someone with a huge position can only effect the price in large short-term moves, and then his power is gone. The idea that large holders carry some "untoward" influence on the medium or long term Bitcoin price is a fallacy.

[ElectricMucus]

It really bugs me that there are a few people out there with that much control over the price.

Pretty much defies the purpose of a decentralized currency, well actually not that but the tendency for it not to change...

Nobody controls the price. Even someone with a huge position can only effect the price in large short-term moves, and then his power is gone. The idea that large holders carry some "untoward" influence on the medium or long term Bitcoin price is a fallacy.

That depends on what you consider short term. If that initial dump from 3 to 2.5 never happend we wouldn't have seen 2 so soon, if there were no bidwall the price would have been declining into the upper 1s and the rally to 2.55 would have seen a slight correction if that weren't for that wall pushing it straight to 2.6 and beyond.

You may be right that in the long term the end result might be the same but for us small daytraders it's poison.

Also if there is a rally now it is a direct result of those walls with the rise wouldn't have been expected for at least another month.

[DeathAndTaxes]

3) you're always going to have those "big fish" and if they haven't sold at $32, $20, $10, $5, $3, why would they sell now?  I feel like it's a safe assumption to assume those hoarders are waiting for something bigger, maybe $1,000?

I think hype has something to do w/ it. The skyrocket from $5 -> $32 was insanity.  There was no reason not to sell.  Perceptions got way out of line w/ reality.  People were measuring critical mass not in decades or years but in months.  Possible some big fish got caught up in that hype.  Why sell now when it will be $100 in a year.

While there still is some hype I think the community has sobered up some.  The non technical challenges that Bitcoin faces are better understood.  The expectations and timelines have been lengthened.

So it is possible someone who didn't sell a lot of coins at $6 (both on way up and down) might decide to punch out a chunk of their stash if he get $6 again.

[Qoheleth]

Yeah, as much as I'd like to believe that Bitcoin is heading up, I can't have much confidence in the current price with this "40k bidwall" malarky going on. Until they quit it there's really no way to tell what the "real" price is.

[proudhon]

Yeah, as much as I'd like to believe that Bitcoin is heading up, I can't have much confidence in the current price with this "40k bidwall" malarky going on. Until they quit it there's really no way to tell what the "real" price is.

Well, if the 40k-bidwall-owner quits it, I can assure you this much - the "real" price won't be this high.

[bittenbob]

Well I was wondering about that but he moved his 50k bidwall at 2.625 up to 2.90 and ~40k coins (im sure it works out to whatever the converstion rate is). Maybe someone who sold on the way down is legitimately trying to get back in... Coincidentally the more we go up the smaller his bidwalls are (in BTC) and the lesser the effect of them. I think the fact we have been up above 3 for so long with only the occasional brief expedition below we might be here to stay... That being said I dont have a crystal ball.

[bittenbob]

Also once he moved his bidwall from 2.625 to 2.90 there was no effect on the price. That seems to lend credibility that we are here to stay.