I've always been interested in predictions of the future. I don't mean tepid, noncommittal predictions. I mean bold predictions with more solid dates. I understand the rational for tepid predictions. Its hard to say what will happen for sure. However, I think that people are too afraid of being wrong. I love seeing the depictions of the late 20th and early 21st century from the 1950's and 60's. They make pretty bold predictions and its fun to see what they've gotten right or wrong.
While some aspects of the topic aren't fun, I want to make interesting and bold predictions of how Bitcoin could affect our future. I'll write this as a timeline with each section denoting a period of time. I'll make price, adoptions, economic, and sociopolitical predictions in each section.
Before we begin, I'll want to make this clear. Do your own research! I'm not a financial advisor, so this is not financial advice. I'm not an economist, political scientist, or sociologist either. So I'm more than likely getting a lot of this wrong, but I'm okay with that. This is pure speculation on my part based on what I've learned from my dive into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. I barely did any research specifically for this, I just wanted to have fun writing about a possible future.
Let's jump in!
Q3 2021 - 2023By the end of 2021, Bitcoin will reach $100,000. This is due to several factors: increased institutional adoption, Taproot activation, and the first Bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC. The first two pump it past $50,000. The Bitcoin ETF, for better or for worse, doubles the value of Bitcoin. One hundred grand is likely to be a psychologically significant. There will probably be a large boost in online retailers willing to accept Bitcoin. Once at $100,000, many institutions and retail investors FOMO in. The price will likely increase to $150,000 before crashing back down to $70,000 or $80,000 due to FUD in the first couple quarters of 2022. I believe the FUD will center around some countries banning retailers from accepting Bitcoin. An alternate or accompanying piece of FUD would be tainted coins. This crash marks the start of the bear market. Throughout 2022 and 2023, the price will keep around $100,000.
During this time, the world will begin going "back to normal" from the global pandemic. As the more locked down areas begin opening up, the supply chain will return to full functionality. Of course, the US president at the time will take credit. Prices will drop some due to the healing supply chain. Economists will proceed to dismiss the fears of inflation as unfounded panic. An economic boom will happen as things open up. The stock market will be glowing! A new roaring 20's!
Governments will use the windfall to further increase spending and borrowing. The Biden administration has already announced a budget of $6T. The US and EU perform limited tests of their CBDCs during this time. The US also prepares for the next presidential election in 2023. I don't believe that Joe Biden will continue being president due to his age and health issues. Kamala Harris will likely be the favored candidate for the Democratic party. I'm not sure who will be the favored candidate for the Republicans, but I think Donald Trump may run again. He will either be in the Republican party or run as a third party candidate a la Bull Moose Party. I think that this is dependent on how the 2022 elections go.
The next big upgrade to the base chain will be [Secure the Bag](
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/secure-the-bag-cutting-transactions-in-half-to-resolve-bitcoin-network-congestion). This upgrade essentially lets users split their transactions into two. One transaction is the sending transaction. Its confirmed quickly at a higher fee. The second is the receiving transaction. This transaction has low fees and can be spent from since it is guaranteed by the sending transaction. This can help increase transaction throughput on-chain which subsequently speeds up transactions in any layer above.
I believe that some sort of computing functionality such as a smart contract equivalent will come to Lightning or as its own layer. The Lightning network is adoption is slowing growing each year. New use cases pop up for the second layer network.
2024
Another halving! A presidential election! 2024 is likely to be a significant year for many. The price is on an upswing, starting a new bull market. It seems as though every bull market brings a new trend like ICOs, DeFi, and NFTs. I'm going to say that the next trend will be DAO's and governance. This will get many people into legal trouble due to DAO's still being a legal gray area. There'll obviously be scam DAO's. Somebody will find a way to fit a pyramid or Ponzi scheme into one. In anticipation of the halving, the price increases from its usually $100K
September 16, 2024. The halving occurs. Each block now only yields 3.125 BTC in block rewards. The price increases by a good amount. Probably to $230,000 per BTC.
Riding on the booming economy, Kamala Harris becomes president of the United States. Feminists rejoice! This incidentally causes Bitcoin's price to shoot up, getting it to $300,000. Many believe that her Congress will continue to the increase of borrowing and spending. CBDC tests are ongoing.
Institutional adoption is beginning to ramp up again in anticipation of a parabolic move as a result of the halving and in anticipation of further inflation. Secure the Bag is finally included into the code as a soft fork, increasing the price to $350,000.
If it hasn't already, Amazon will start accepting Bitcoin, both on chain and via lightning. This will trigger a cascade of online retail acceptance. Big box stores will begin to accept Bitcoin for online purchases only. This bullish action will increase the price to $390,000.
Throughout the year, mining is becoming an extremely popular hobby. ASIC manufacturers will begin to create energy efficient, but relatively weak miners for the average person. You can get around $2000 a year from the miner. These quickly sell out. Old miners are in huge demand. The sudden increase of power consumption will probably cause a power outage in a small to medium sized US city. This will lead to regulations on mining. Some places may require a license to mine. This FUD will drop the price back down to $300,000.
2025 - 2027The bull is charging through the market! Stocks, Bitcoin, and other assets are increasing in price! Bitcoin gets to $500,000. Multiple Bitcoin ETFs have been approved at this point. Bitcoin makes up small to medium sized amounts of many people's retirement. Bitcoin is slowly becoming a part of everyone's life for better or for worse. Some games and content creation utilize the lightning network. A few driverless vehicles are taking Bitcoin as fare. There are green energy startups that use Bitcoin mining to bootstrap their operations. I predict that 15% of the global population will own some sats or be exposed to Bitcoin in one way or another by the end of 2025. 8% use it in their daily lives.
As Bitcoin ages, the frequency of FUD reduces. Adoption is only growing as time goes on. The last bit of FUD will probably come from tainted coins and quantum computers. I think this time around, FUD from quantum computing will be what brings Bitcoin from a peak of $1.4M to $900,000. The bear market will last from the end of 2025 to 2027. Bitcoin bounces between $1.2M and $1.3M for the duration of the bear market.
Hodling sats is becoming a symbol of status. People associate a large bag with foresight and/or wealth. It becomes trendy to brag about how many sats you have and how long ago you invested in Bitcoin. If you have 1 or more BTC, you're a legend. This will start to backfire however. Bitcoiners begin to be the targets of scams and theft. This will slowly escalate to violence in the coming years.
Meanwhile, the M2 and M3 money continues to increase. The official CPI increases by 3% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 4% in 2027. From 2020 to 2027, the official CPI has increased by an alarming 26%. Alternate stats show a more grim +55% increase in prices. A $15 an hour minimum wage is passed in the United States with plans to increase it by 3% each year for 10 years. Many businesses, large and small, begin looking to automation to save money.
2028The roaring 2020's are coming to a close and people are nervous about what happens next. There are rumblings about the eerie similarities between the 1920's and the 2020's. If history is anything to go by, many people believe that a Great Depression is coming next. This fear is not unfounded. The only thing keeping hyperinflation at bay is the governments of the world attempting to stem the velocity of money and somewhat reducing the printing of money. The debt to GDP ratio is through the roof.
Counteracting the negative energy, another halving will be taking place this year! At this point in time, Halvings have become a sort of mini-holiday for many Bitcoiners. After the halving the price slowly increases to $1.5M. Some are beginning to lament the stability of Bitcoin's price. They're used to the crazy price action of assets in the past decade. Stocks and real estate prices continue to moon.
Inflation continues its march across the economy. The CPI is adjusted once again. The official CPI states an increase of 5%. However, under the previous standard, prices have increased 11%. As faith in the US dollar continues to fade, many are turning to Bitcoin, gold, and other assets. Central banks around the world are beginning to publicly add Bitcoin to their coffers. This increases the price of Bitcoin to a whopping $2M.
Earlier this year, the EU has officially released their CBDC. A few months later, the US announces their CBDC. It is slated to be released early 2029. The EU, US, and China all announce UBI programs through their digital currencies to encourage adoption.
This post is getting long so I'll go over the 2030's and 2041 and beyond in either a second post or in the comments as a continuation. Don't be afraid to call my predictions BS and post your own!