Another upcoming big events, Bitcoin price valuation and halving events.

[Charles-Tim]

I had a topic in the past, in early 2020 when I joined Bitcointalk 'The bitcoin halving, whales manipulations and its 2020 price valuation, this focused on how the bitcoin price will significantly increase in 2020, in which there has been shift from Bitcoin supply reduction to marketcap leading to price increase. It happened the price increased, but even extended to 2021 in which the price also significantly increased. That was the recent big even seen in Bitcoin price valuation.

I use this to create a thread of the next big event, although there might have been big events in between previous and next halving, but the halving event will make people to fomo, significantly resulting to increase in the price of Bitcoin as people do invest at the time, it is now becoming the norm of the whales (especially the institutional whales) and retail investors to invest few weeks to halving and also many months after halving. I see this as an opportunity for people that want to earn to take this advantage.

Bitcoin volatility decreasing but still significant in price valuation

First halving, 2012
Initial price: $11
Highest prices:  around 1100
That means it increased 100x

Second halving, 2016
Initial price: around and below $700
Highest price: all time all of $19,665.36
That means it increased over 33x

I remembered Bitcoin price has been increasing drastically last year, 2020 before halving, but the price before having was around $8800, Bitcoin increased in price to $63126 in 2021.

Third halving, 2020
Initial price: $8800
Highest prices so far: around $63126
That means it increased 7.17x

Taking advantage of the a very significant drop
There are period of abrupt and significant drop of Bitcoin price, this is the time Bitcoin will reach its lowest price in a period within previous and next halving, to determine this price can be very difficult, but yet possible. Such even happened two times before 2020 halving to the extent Bitcoin price dropped to less than $4000 in April 2019 and 2020. This were the best time to invest in bitcoin during the time. Analysts have been predicting the price of bitcoin to not get below $20000 ever again, but nobody yet knows what will happen as it is possible Bitcoin has reach all-time-high of a $63126. But this point of lowest price will be the best period for people to invest in bitcoin.

The great even of 2023
There next bitcoin halving will occur after the present 210000 blocks are mined, with the average block rewards of 10 minutes, it has been estimated that next Bitcoin halving will occur in February 2024. Although, it can be some time before or after the predicted date. Some people are already waiting for this long time period to invest more on bitcoin because it is a period Bitcoin price will never fail to increase. New bitcoiners will fomo and invest, old bitcoiners will speculatively invest during the time. Although, there will be time within the period that the price of bitcoin will increase and decrease so significantly, but I am speculating the time to be the next Bitcoin all-time-high. Although,I am not entirely certain but only predicting.


The purpose of this thread
1. To focus on the next Bitcoin halving which will be a big event
2. To speculate what the lowest price of bitcoin will be before the halving
3. To speculate and determine the best time to invest in bitcoin during this period.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

If I we were to follow the pattern, the next halving would probably have a smaller multiplier than that of the 2020 halving which can only mean that either the price is going to be really high that a small multiplier is going to be enough.

[Charles-Tim]

If I we were to follow the pattern, the next halving would probably have a smaller multiplier than that of the 2020 halving which can only mean that either the price is going to be really high that a small multiplier is going to be enough.

The price volatility is based on pre-halving price (the price of bitcoin immediately before halving), if someone can invest during the lowest price, there would still be more increase in profit, but you are right, I believe the volatility will still reduce further in the next halving, if comparing the pre-halving price to the all-time-high that bitcoin price will reach at the time. Although, this is just a prediction of what will likely happen during the period.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Its time when BTC is no longer xxx mln $ asset with 25% inflation. Its no longer nerds kindergarten. Bitcoin is now sailing on bluewaters with other big ships, with wall street whales, with strong storms (f.e FED decisions). Halving was a big thing when BTC was small with big inflation. Its not like that now.

First halving decreased inflation from 25% to 12% (strong fundamential impact), second halving from 9% to 4,5% third one from 3,8% to 1,9%. So every next halving has weaker fundamental influence on price. Fifth halving will decrease inflation from 0.4% to 0.2% (dust). From fundamential perspective, no one should care. From speculative ... who knows.

What build value of BTC more? Decreasing inflation from 3.8% to 1.9% (last halving) or FED, that printed 25% of dollar supply in last year? 25% of whole $$ supply printed in 1 year...

[Charles-Tim]

What build value of BTC more? Decreasing inflation from 3.8% to 1.9% (last halving) or FED, that printed 25% of dollar supply in last year? 25% of whole $$ supply printed in 1 year...

The true design of fiat is how they are depreciative assets, fiat also contributing to the increase of Bitcoin price valuation, but what mostly increased it in the last halving are people that invested in it. But dollar also depreciated, though not like the fiat in developing and underdeveloped countries which even depreciated more far than strong currencies like Pounds, Euro and US Dollar, but yet they still always being manipulated and depreciated.

That said, if you check the marketcap of Bitcoin, it is clear that the increase in adoption rate which make its marketcap to significantly increased is majorly responsible for the present price valuation, and yet as some investors and traders sell Bitcoin for fiat is resulting to the recent bear market. Although, it is now within the range of bullish (support) and bearish (resistance) of $30000 to $40000.

[dothebeats]

I don't think halving does affect bitcoin's price big time in today's standards. Back then, the halving is a very crucial part of bitcoin's maturity, and a lot of traders and speculators are using it as an indicator for their short-term movements. With the amount of money, players, and development bitcoin has received over the years, halving may just be another fixed event with its influence getting little every year. Of course, this may not hold true if something happens pre-halving, but the past few halving events tell us that its influence is waning, and not a lot of traders are really using it as an indicator and a basis on their movements anymore.

[BlackHatCoiner]

What build value of BTC more? Decreasing inflation from 3.8% to 1.9% (last halving) or FED, that printed 25% of dollar supply in last year? 25% of whole $$ supply printed in 1 year...

Actually, none of those two “built” Bitcoin's value; especially the FED. The fact that an entity printed 25% of the dollars' supply means that it increased the BTC/USD exchange rate, it didn't make bitcoins more valuable. You don't create value out of printed banknotes.

I find it misleading to keep using the word “value” in terms of a commodity's price. The halving didn't increase its economic value, it made it its whole units (BTC) more scarce (and it does overtime). Economic value isn't the same as market price, but both can be measured to units of a currency. The difference may be hard to notice, so I shall give an example. If you're lost in the ocean a bottle of crystal clear water is your only salvation. Sure, it costs 50 cents, but how would you evaluate it if you were dying out of thirst? Millions of dollars maybe? Hypothetically, if there was a guy selling bottles of water in the ocean, he'd choose to place a higher value on that good than 50 cents. But you'd of course accept any amount asked.

Not on-topic, but the difference between the market price and the value to the customer is called a “consumer surplus” and it looks like this on axis:

[icopress]

Aren't we too early to talk about the upcoming halving? I would prefer to chat about the correction, in the hope that the price will drop to at least 20 thousand (to buy as many bitcoins as I can). + I would add to the above the pandemic as one of the factors that played into the hands of Bitcoin, since these circumstances definitely undermined the value of fiat money ... given the trillions of newly printed dollars that have poured into the economy, (BlackHatCoiner got ahead of me).

[Charles-Tim]

I too see it too early to be posting about halving, but I also still believe there will be period before the next halving that Bitcoin price may retrace to certain level, that is why I which people to comment on what the lowest price Bitcoin can be before the next halving and also what other things that might likely occur before the next halving that can have influence on Bitcoin price, and what the lowest price may be within the period. I think the point of focus for now should truly be about corrections to occur, many analysts are predicting the price will not go below $20000.

[Kemarit]

If I we were to follow the pattern, the next halving would probably have a smaller multiplier than that of the 2020 halving which can only mean that either the price is going to be really high that a small multiplier is going to be enough.

The price volatility is based on pre-halving price (the price of bitcoin immediately before halving), if someone can invest during the lowest price, there would still be more increase in profit, but you are right, I believe the volatility will still reduce further in the next halving, if comparing the pre-halving price to the all-time-high that bitcoin price will reach at the time. Although, this is just a prediction of what will likely happen during the period.

Right, obviously, as we reach new all time high pre-halving, the exponential growth will slow down.

So it is very good to timing the market pre-halving and then wait for the halving year and just hold. I think this is what most holders are doing, filling their bags before the eventually all time high again after the halving. So far we have ~$64,000. But it's not yet the highest in my opinion, we could hit 6 digits at the end of the year.

[GreatArkansas]

(....)
Right, obviously, as we reach new all time high pre-halving, the exponential growth will slow down.

So it is very good to timing the market pre-halving and then wait for the halving year and just hold. I think this is what most holders are doing, filling their bags before the eventually all time high again after the halving. So far we have ~$64,000. But it's not yet the highest in my opinion, we could hit 6 digits at the end of the year.

Probably we can see more years of the bear market once we will not able to break the $64,000 all-time-high before the year will end.
And the next turning point is the next bitcoin block halving, which is still far.
But it could be a great opportunity for people who missed out Bitcoin rally because there is a lot of possibilities that Bitcoin does more than 50% price correction as we already experienced on previous block halvings.

[passwordnow]

The increase that we're getting each after every halving decreases but that's normal because we're getting the higher prices as time goes by. If it falls to even just 2x, then that will make the price of bitcoin $120k+ which is totally a great price if we're going to analyze it because we're bound to be there soon. If somebody wants to invest and is aware of the next halving on 2024, he should be starting to name price that he should invest like somewhere around $20k-$35k.

[Lorence.xD]

I didn't mind the next halving and I find that we are again a little closer to it. That's pretty crazy if you think about it that it's only 4 years for another halving. Hopefully we can see the prices going up again in the next halving.

[CapGelatik]

I didn't mind the next halving and I find that we are again a little closer to it. That's pretty crazy if you think about it that it's only 4 years for another halving. Hopefully we can see the prices going up again in the next halving.

from history, before the halving Bitcoin price will usually dump, or a big correction,
and it is happening now that bitcoin correction has exceeded -50% of new ath,
of course dumps can happen again seeing the next halving is in 2023, of course the bears will take over first,
maybe next year or maybe this year

[cryptoaddictchie]

I think the point of focus for now should truly be about corrections to occur, many analysts are predicting the price will not go below $20000.

Correction stage is the crucial part. We all knew how big bitcoin jumped from this year reaching its ATH, but now its slowly going down but of course some institutions bought at 30k levels means the solid support still stand on this area and we can expect btc to stay at this level prior to halving. In your information, I think the pattern is clearly an upward direction however there are lots of factors that could affect this in three years time.