📝[Discussion topic] Overview of Bitcointalk Signature-Ad Campaigns📝

[pawel7777]

This topic makes things more interesting for an analysis of this type, without a doubt.

For analysis, we face yet another problem: the method of calculation for payment.
In the beginning, the calculation was mostly done in BTC, and in recent years the majority has been done in $ and occasionally some campaigns in BTC. Since the price of BTC has varied significantly since 2013, this makes the calculation more complicated. I believe that to build a more adequate analysis, the analysis should be divided into two, one for payments in BTC and the other in USD.

Fair point.
I'd be interested in comparing earnings in the actual value, which is best expressed in USD terms (ideally adjusted for inflation). If I was to take the lazy way, I could just take the BTC/USD exchange rate at the moment the campaign was announced, although that approach could potentially distort the results (if there have been big fluctuations in the BTC price during the campaign). So the best approach would be to take a monthly/quarterly snapshots of all (or major) active campaigns at that time and the USD equivalent of the payouts.
Definitely doable, but quite time consuming.

I don't think comparing pay rates in BTC would be meaningful at all though, given the huge swings of its value over the years.

[1714751659]

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[1714751659]

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[joker_josue]

Fair point.
I'd be interested in comparing earnings in the actual value, which is best expressed in USD terms (ideally adjusted for inflation). If I was to take the lazy way, I could just take the BTC/USD exchange rate at the moment the campaign was announced, although that approach could potentially distort the results (if there have been big fluctuations in the BTC price during the campaign). So the best approach would be to take a monthly/quarterly snapshots of all (or major) active campaigns at that time and the USD equivalent of the payouts.
Definitely doable, but quite time consuming.

I don't think comparing pay rates in BTC would be meaningful at all though, given the huge swings of its value over the years.

The issue is that the first campaigns paid in BTC, and didn't even mention the value in USD. So it gets complicated, realizing the real value in USD, without going through a conversion process. Even to do an average of three months, you have to create this conversion.

In any case, the biggest difficulty will be gathering the information, not because it is difficult (with that list it makes it a lot easier), but because it takes a long time.

What method were you thinking of doing this?

[pawel7777]

Another mixer down. Sinbad.io

According to news reports. they have been linked to North Korean group Lazarus: https://www.techradar.com/pro/sinbad-crypto-mixer-used-by-north-korean-lazarus-group-seized-by-us-government

Not only the campaign is closed but Royse777 is freaking out (and I don't blame him):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5419242.msg63245716#msg63245716

The case is serious and I am considering not to touch any funds that is in the escrow address right now unless I speak to a lawyer. This means no one is going to receive anymore payments unless I have a direction from the lawyer. It's for the safety of everyone.

Thoughts?

[AB de Royse777]

Thoughts?

Good  morning :-D

[snipie]

Another mixer down. Sinbad.io

According to news reports. they have been linked to North Korean group Lazarus: https://www.techradar.com/pro/sinbad-crypto-mixer-used-by-north-korean-lazarus-group-seized-by-us-government

Not only the campaign is closed but Royse777 is freaking out (and I don't blame him):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5419242.msg63245716#msg63245716

The case is serious and I am considering not to touch any funds that is in the escrow address right now unless I speak to a lawyer. This means no one is going to receive anymore payments unless I have a direction from the lawyer. It's for the safety of everyone.

Thoughts?

Mixers are a very risky business model and I believe this isn't the first time such thing happens. Back in the time, 6 years ago tho, circa 2017, Bitmixer shut down voluntarily after other services being seized by US government. Bitmixer at that time was extremely popular and their earnings were incredibly high, yet the owners saw that they should stop before being tracked down.
I don't know what's going on right now with Sinbad but I am not very surprised to see that coming. Mixers should take on consideration the risks of running such service and where to operate it.

[joker_josue]

I don't know what's going on right now with Sinbad but I am not very surprised to see that coming. Mixers should take on consideration the risks of running such service and where to operate it.

Not wanting to deviate too much from the main topic of the OP.
Do you think that a mixing service that only works on clearnet is less exposed to these types of problems?

[snipie]

I don't know what's going on right now with Sinbad but I am not very surprised to see that coming. Mixers should take on consideration the risks of running such service and where to operate it.

Not wanting to deviate too much from the main topic of the OP.
Do you think that a mixing service that only works on clearnet is less exposed to these types of problems?

No I don't think so because for many governments these type of services are equal to money laundering, tax fraud and illegal activities even though they are operating in clearnet. It is hard to convince these politicians, who are by the way doing the same thing with offshore companies, that all mixers aren't the same.
Personally, I find these services as a good way to keep your privacy and your money from being tracked by curious people. Governments think otherwise since they fail to track them.

[tranthidung]

Bitmixer at that time was extremely popular and their earnings were incredibly high, yet the owners saw that they should stop before being tracked down.
I don't know what's going on right now with Sinbad but I am not very surprised to see that coming. Mixers should take on consideration the risks of running such service and where to operate it.

Some insights from the person who run an used-to-be a big mixer. The operator proactively shut down the service even it was very big, brought big income for the operator. After due diligent consult with his lawyer, he decided to step down and shut down the business, even did not want to sell it to other people.

Some thinking from BITMIXER.IO

Hi all!
Despite the huge profit we earn, we are closing our activity. Let me explain why.

I'm bitcoin enthusiast since 2011. When we started this service I was convinced that any Bitcoin user has a natural right to privacy. I was totally wrong. Now I grasped that Bitcoin is transparent non-anonymous system by design. Blockchain is a great open book. I believe that Bitcoin will have a great future without dark market transactions. You may use Dash or Zerocoin if you want to buy some weed. Not Bitcoin.

I hope our decision will help to make Bitcoin ecosystem more clean and transparent. I hope our competitors will hear our message and will close their services too. Very soon this kind of activity will be considered as illegal in most of countries.

It was a really very hard decision. Especially it was hard to drop this business because of incredible high income. But we never had any government or legal pressure, it is only my own opinion. I really believe in clean transparent Bitcoin. I really happy that Bitcoin legalized as payment system and currency in many countries, I actually didn't believe in this in 2011.

The government pressure doesn't work like "Oh man please close your service!". No way. They just come and arrest you for illegal activity. We are the privacy experts, it is hard or impossible to find out our location and personality, our servers are located in the country where Bitcoin is not considered as a currency, etc, etc. I could sell the business for our competitors for $5-6M, but I will not do this. It is important that you understand my position. I really revised my view about Bitcoin as a transparent system. Bitcoin has no future with drug/weapon traffic or any other illegal activity. This is my point.

Don't worry, we didn't keep logs, we deleted all used wallets, our servers never been seized, we had very strong mixing algorithm. We never collaborated with feds. All our clients are protected. We did our work honesty as described.

About "I'm not a criminal. Why should I mix my coins?". I really believed in this years ago. But look, in 2016 we mixed about 1M bitcoins. What do you think what part of this sum was non criminal? I don't know, we provided just a tool and didn't ask from what source coins coming. But I guess not all of them was clean. I really don't want to earn helping criminals. It is not only personal. Bitcoin couldn't be accepted by general public and governments if it is a crime tool. No, no, no. Fortunately last years appeared special anonymous cryptocurrencies for this purpose. But Bitcoin has another big aims. It is a finance revolution, but not a crime finance revolution.

I received a lot of questions by PM, let's clear the situation.

1. We are not under feds control, all our users are safe, all logs and old wallets deleted. We had incredible multiserver custom written Bitcoin software and outstanding mixing algorithm. It is impossible find out even the fact you used bitmixer (it is possible only by logs of your provider if you didn't use tor version). We didn't had linked wallets, traceable ip addresses etc. Don't worry about your past transactions.

2. We do not sell the domain name nor our software nor methods we used for mixing.

3. All I wrote is true. I've changed the view of this business and Bitcoin future. About question "is a knife good or bad tool?". If you sell knifes and you know that most of your clients are murders, will you stop your business? My pastor suggest me it is not a business I should continue. Sorry for that.

4. The message to other mixers. If even btc-e considered as money laundering service, what do you think about your business? Don't be innocent.

Very important message for our investors who still didn't take money. Please take your principal using your investor panel.

Thank you.

Mixers are not necessarily to be illlegal but see this point that is true for all mixers. Police can not catch criminals and they want to find alternatives who have to pay the cost, it's mixer.

A cryptocurrency mixing service is not necessarily illegal.

About "I'm not a criminal. Why should I mix my coins?". I really believed in this years ago. But look, in 2016 we mixed about 1M bitcoins. What do you think what part of this sum was non criminal?

[pawel7777]

Mixers are a very risky business model and I believe this isn't the first time such thing happens. Back in the time, 6 years ago tho, circa 2017, Bitmixer shut down voluntarily after other services being seized by US government. Bitmixer at that time was extremely popular and their earnings were incredibly high, yet the owners saw that they should stop before being tracked down.
I don't know what's going on right now with Sinbad but I am not very surprised to see that coming. Mixers should take on consideration the risks of running such service and where to operate it.

I'm sure all mixer operators are aware of the risks. The more pressing question is whether campaign managers and/or participants can face any legal consequences for promoting such services. I don't think so, as the process of Bitcoin mixing itself is not illegal, so any further compliance should be the responsibility of operators.
The problem with Sinbad is quite unique though, given they've been linked to foreign intelligence, so some other three-letter agency might get invloved.

Not wanting to deviate too much from the main topic of the OP.
Do you think that a mixing service that only works on clearnet is less exposed to these types of problems?

No I don't think so because for many governments these type of services are equal to money laundering, tax fraud and illegal activities even though they are operating in clearnet. It is hard to convince these politicians, who are by the way doing the same thing with offshore companies, that all mixers aren't the same.
Personally, I find these services as a good way to keep your privacy and your money from being tracked by curious people. Governments think otherwise since they fail to track them.

True, but looks like whether or not a mixer operates only on darknet matters to Theymos:

Bitcointalk.org is not a darknet site. Linking to illegal services is not allowed. As mentioned in the law-enforcement press release, "a cryptocurrency mixing service is not necessarily illegal." But a seized mixer is rather different from just any old mixer. Sinbad, if still operating, is now clearly a darknet site, and therefore not allowed on bitcointalk.org.

The OP is banned. This topic is archived. The onion address is wordfiltered, and bypassing the wordfilter will get you banned.

Thoughts?

Good  morning :-D

Good evening!
How do you find this whole situation? Given the huge numbers of campaigns you've ran, have you been prepared for such scenario?
Do you have any plans on what to do with the coins in the blacklisted escrow address if you get no instructions from a lawyer/authorities. Seems like it could use a mixer lol.
I'm curious about how will the situation unfold - will you be posting any updates anywhere? Both ANN and sig. campaign threads of Sinbad are locked.

[pawel7777]

!!! BOMBSHELL !!!

Advertising of ALL mixers is banned from 1 January 2024:

Bitcointalk.org aims to allow about as much freedom as is reasonably possible. But this is not a darknet forum, and with mixers looking "grayer and grayer", it's no longer reasonably possible to allow linking to mixers. Even though "a cryptocurrency mixing service is not necessarily illegal," a clear pattern has emerged where mixers pop up, last for a little while, and then get taken down by law enforcement once they get too big. Allowing mixers to be posted on bitcointalk.org before they seemingly-inevitably get declared illegal and seized is not sustainable. Therefore, linking to mixers will no longer be allowed, just the same as linking to darknet sites is already not allowed.

To avoid disruption, there will be a grace period: Nothing will change until Jan 1, 2024.

Starting Jan 1, 2024:
 - Existing mixer announcement topics (and a few topics that have no value without mixer-links) will be locked and archived.
 - Going forward, directing people to mixers in new posts/edits will be totally disallowed, and doing so could lead to a ban. Many mixer URLs will be wordfiltered-out, and if you bypass the wordfilter, then that'll definitely be ban-worthy.
 - Any remaining mixer signatures (etc.) may be deleted. Anyone persisting in advertising mixers will be banned.
 - In most cases, old posts will not be deleted. Nobody should be banned for old posts.

You do not need to go edit/delete your past posts. Links will be automatically wordfiltered-out as of Jan 1, or in a few cases mods will archive or delete posts, but you will not be banned for old mixer-related posts.

It will continue to be OK to discuss mixers in a general sort of way. Just don't direct people to mixers: don't link to a mixer, don't link to a directory with links to mixers, don't tell people to "Google ASDFmixer", don't link to a mixer's telegram, etc.

Definition of a mixer

For clarity, here is a detailed definition of what we mean by a "mixer". Most people know intuitively what a mixer is and don't have to read this.

Something is considered a mixer if it meets all of these requirements:
 1. It has a feature advertised for taking property, improving its privacy somehow, and then returning roughly the same type of property.
     a. Even though you can sometimes use non-mixers to mix coins by depositing and then withdrawing, this doesn't make it a mixer because this is an incidental use of the service; the service isn't advertised as privacy-enhancing.
     b. If a site is not primarily a mixer but has a mixer function, such as a mixer function on a gambling website, then the whole site is considered a mixer.
     c. If the site takes coins, gives you a possibly-transferrable IOU, and will convert this IOU back into mixed coins much later, then the temporary conversion into a different type of property does not prevent it from being considered a mixer.
     d. If the site internally converts your deposit into other things as part of its mixing, but ultimately the point of the product is to get your original type of property back, then that's a mixer, not an exchanger.
 2. It is possible for the mixer to steal property passing through it. Assume that the sender does everything as correctly as possible. Also assume that no miners/verifiers on the base-layer cryptocurrency are evil. But assume that every other actor involved is evil (everyone able to vote in a DAO, every coordination server, every counterparty, every member of a multisig, etc.). Ignore short-term software bugs which are expected to be quickly fixed.
 3. The service does not collect KYC-type info from all users.

Examples of things that are not banned mixers include exchangers (unless they have a mixing function), CoinJoin-supporting non-custodial wallets, and Monero.

This sucks big time. Signature campaigns will be effectively limited to casinos. And the less campaigns there are, the less activity on the forum, which makes it less attractive to advertisers. A down-spiral.
I think it's a bit of an overkill, but I understand there must be a pretty big risk for the admins.

[joker_josue]

This sucks big time. Signature campaigns will be effectively limited to casinos. And the less campaigns there are, the less activity on the forum, which makes it less attractive to advertisers. A down-spiral.
I think it's a bit of an overkill, but I understand there must be a pretty big risk for the admins.

I happen to believe that there is a possibility of new advertisements appearing. There is room for this to happen, and it seems to me that it will happen.

Now, in the initial phase, we will see the remuneration value drop, as there are many users without a campaign.

[Poker Player]

This sucks big time. Signature campaigns will be effectively limited to casinos.

Not only casinos. There are also exchanges that advertise on the forum, such as Best Change or eXch.cx, although they advertise much less than casinos.

For January I would expect a drop in available signature campaigns, but I think that little by little there will be a reorganization, and maybe some casinos and exchanges will take the opportunity to advertise more, and also other services that are not advertised now or advertised currently as mixers that will be reinvented to meet the new rules, such as bitcoin to monero exchangers or non custodial wallets with coinjoin.

Examples of things that are not banned mixers include exchangers (unless they have a mixing function), CoinJoin-supporting non-custodial wallets, and Monero.

[salad daging]

This sucks big time. Signature campaigns will be effectively limited to casinos. And the less campaigns there are, the less activity on the forum, which makes it less attractive to advertisers. A down-spiral.
I think it's a bit of an overkill, but I understand there must be a pretty big risk for the admins.

That means simultaneously there are 8 campaigns that will disappear from next January 1 and there will be no more advertisements about the mixer, I'm not sure a little forum activity will decrease even if they don't advertise it and I'm sure someday there will be campaigns that will come again, maybe after the mixer there is no more casino and it grows on the forum?

Even though the admin said there is no demand from any party about him having to take his decision even though it is hard, I think the best way is to take it.

[Stalker22]

That means simultaneously there are 8 campaigns that will disappear from next January 1 and there will be no more advertisements about the mixer, I'm not sure a little forum activity will decrease even if they don't advertise it and I'm sure someday there will be campaigns that will come again, maybe after the mixer there is no more casino and it grows on the forum?

I do not think we will see a drop in forum activity even though the mixer campaigns ended.  We still got other signature campaigns going, some with even higher post quotas that just started like Bitvest and Eleoncoin.  As far as mixer campaigns, I am sure some other kind of services will pop up to take their place.  Maybe well see more exchanges advertised on the forum, or who knows maybe some new type of service altogether.  I am hopeful we will continue to see all kinds of interesting things happening and some new services promoting on the forum.

[snipie]

I don't know why I expected such move from forums admin. Theymos has enough problems to deal with every day and the last thing they want to see a service that is promoting something that could be linked to illegal activities or even worse in this case..
Mixers advertisements dropped significantly after the closure of Bitmixer until the first days of Chipmixer. This time it will be forever for mixerd.
I think these services will continue to exist even though there is a ban to talk about it here in a direct manner.
For the people who will be campain-less, I think their number all together will be less than Bitmixer and Yobit ones. They will find another thing to do and the mixer that will close, it might return with a new idea.

[LTU_btc]

That means simultaneously there are 8 campaigns that will disappear from next January 1 and there will be no more advertisements about the mixer, I'm not sure a little forum activity will decrease even if they don't advertise it and I'm sure someday there will be campaigns that will come again, maybe after the mixer there is no more casino and it grows on the forum?

Even though the admin said there is no demand from any party about him having to take his decision even though it is hard, I think the best way is to take it.

Man, somehow I didn't knew that we have so many mixer campaigns here, I thought that there is maybe 2-3 currently active. That's a lot. For long time already, gambling campaigns were most frequent here, now when mixer campaigns will disappear, users will have much less options to pick what to advertise. I know that some users made decision not advertise gambling websites because in their opinion it's unethical or they religious beliefs don't allow them to do it.
I just hope that crypot gambling websites won't become new governments target after mixers.

[robelneo]

There will be a huge drop in campaigns, those quality posters who do not want to be under casinos who pay less, or do not have any campaign to apply will likely open a thread to offer their signature space, we don't know what's in store for the forum this coming 2024 but I believe the signature managers will play a major factor in convincing the project owners to try signature campaign to maximize their advertisement.
Maybe we will see more new projects or new industries utilizing the popularity of Bitcointalk's presence in the search engine.

[salad daging]

As far as mixer campaigns, I am sure some other kind of services will pop up to take their place.  Maybe well see more exchanges advertised on the forum, or who knows maybe some new type of service altogether.  I am hopeful we will continue to see all kinds of interesting things happening and some new services promoting on the forum.

I am thinking about a BTC to ETH or BTC to XMR type of Swap service with different features, since the mixer is no longer there then it is likely that the service will develop, but we never know what will happen in the future unless we believe there will be better growth and they can return to advertising on the forum to keep marketing here.

I see so far centralized exchange advertising is still very rare unless they come up with a service like mixer but with slightly different features.

This is just my opinion.

[pawel7777]

I am thinking about a BTC to ETH or BTC to XMR type of Swap service with different features, since the mixer is no longer there then it is likely that the service will develop, but we never know what will happen in the future unless we believe there will be better growth and they can return to advertising on the forum to keep marketing here.

That would effectively be an exchange, not mixer. If it was advertised as a mixer or had a mixing feature, it would be banned as well. From the perspective of someone who wants to make his bitcoins untraceable, using exchange is not good enough as it's not clear whether the owners will keep records of transfers etc.
It could work if such exchange was 100% anonymous and put emphasis on privacy being their main goal.

On the plus side, as you posted in the coinomize signature thread, some mixer campaigns are starting moving to altcointalk, so it's not like they're gone forever. Hopefully the trend continues and all mixers would move there (together with the participants), creating more traffic and more competition, driving pay rates up.

[ralle14]

since "Mixers will no longer be allowed after Jan 1" 2024 according to theymos, I think it would be better to remove these services from the table to avoid advertising them indirectly and forward Bitcointalkers or other people to them until the ban effect takes place.

I don't mind removing it this early if Mitchell and most users want it removed, but i'd rather let them have their final few weeks in the overview thread when they'll be removed for good from the forum.

Also, it might still help others get a new temporary campaign when a few of the mixer campaigns recently increased their budget and pay rates.