USD Inflation over the last century. Bitcoin can protect you even in the US.

[bitmover]

Visualizing the History of U.S. Inflation Over 100 Years

Is inflation rising?

The consumer price index (CPI), an index used as a proxy for inflation in consumer prices, offers some answers. In 2020, inflation dropped to 1.4%, the lowest rate since 2015. By comparison, inflation sits around 2.5% as of June 2021.

For context, recent numbers are just above rates seen in 2019, which were 2.3%. Given how the economic shock of COVID-19 depressed prices, rising price levels make sense. However, other variables, such as a growing money supply and rising raw materials costs, could factor into rising inflation.

To show current price levels in context, this Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments shows the history of inflation over 100 years.
....


At the same time, the Federal Reserve is following an “average inflation targeting” regime, which means that if a previous inflation shortfall occurred in the previous year, it would allow for higher inflationary periods to make up for them. As the last decade has been characterized by low inflation and low interest rates, any prolonged period of inflation will likely have pronounced effects on investors and financial markets.

https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/inflation-over-last-100-years/

We can see by the chart that US has a constant 1-3% inflation over the last decade. Somewhat controlled low inflation, but there were huge spike in the past.

Those spikes (some of them more than 15% in a year) can destroy our economic power within a short period. Also, 1-3% inflation rate every year is also consuming our buying power every year. Will we face another of those spikes soon?

I see that bitcoin rises is bringing up this discussion about inflation again, and I see this discussion all over the place.

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[Poker Player]

To me that chart only tells half the story. Annual inflation matters, if we believe it, as the CPI does not accurately reflect the effects of currency printing, but even more important is cumulative inflation. An average inflation of 3% causes you to lose half your purchasing power in a few lustrums. Of course, if there are big spikes it is even worse, and the best way to protect yourself is to buy inflation-beating assets, Bitcoin being the one that seems the best, at least in the last 10 years.

[dark1234]

This is one of the reasons why many bet on Bitcoin other than to hedge against the possibility of high inflation due to accommodative monetary policy and expansionary fiscal. The role of Bitcoin as an asset for hedging can indeed be competitive
so that many big business experts and economists are discussing it again after recently not only the dollar in other currencies there was inflation in every country because of the covid-19 pandemic.

[zanezane]

Those spikes are coinciding with the economic crisis that US has experienced like the Housing Crisis in 2008 and the Recessions, all of them used stimulus checks to alleviate the damage, that's why the inflation during those times are really high.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, there an interview in CNBC with Kyle Bass, a CIO from Hayman Capital Management, that said he “believes” the actual inflation rate in the U.S. is probably 12%, and that the data where the inflation rate is based was designed to make it artificially low. I can’t find the link to that video interview though, I saw it on TV.

[henmark]

You’re right of course, Bitcoin can protect your money, same thing as other good assets there are. Even before Bitcoin was developed there have been other ways that people has been using to store their value so that they don’t end up losing money because of inflation.

Although right now bitcoin seems to be a better choice because of how much you can make from it, which is as a result of the price volatility.So there is no doubt about that, and a lot of people who have been investing for long, including have witnessed it. Bitcoin has changed a lot of people’s lives, and took them to a level that could have taken them years to achieve.

[dkbit98]

Official statistic is always rigged and fake and you can see that if you check consumer prices and purchasing power for us dollar, not to mention that other countries are probably doing worse than United States.
Real inflation is probably around 10% in US and I expect this number to grow even higher with their economical measures, money printing and crazy lockdowns that speeded up this process.
Maybe they want to destroy economy and everything else, and then magically offer worse possible solution with fully controlled total tracking CBDC, so I see Bitcoin and precious metals as only option to escape from this scenario.

[Fesatmas]

The US needs to carry out a serious evaluation in order to maintain the resilience of the dollar's value so as not to be underestimated. but the fact is that after this last year the inflation rate is terrible. It's only natural that the pandemic has forced the US to print more and more money, not realizing that inflation continues to eat away at it.
Isn't this on the verge of collapse, when the value of the rising Yuan is that the dollar has almost no value. Bitcoin guarantees that everyone can survive this massive inflationary process.

[Gyfts]

To me that chart only tells half the story. Annual inflation matters, if we believe it, as the CPI does not accurately reflect the effects of currency printing, but even more important is cumulative inflation. An average inflation of 3% causes you to lose half your purchasing power in a few lustrums. Of course, if there are big spikes it is even worse, and the best way to protect yourself is to buy inflation-beating assets, Bitcoin being the one that seems the best, at least in the last 10 years.

The average inflation rate year per year does matter, yes, but that's only if the economic situation looks better -- meaning, do we expect the printing machine that is running on overdrive to be pulled back over the next few months, which would then combat the 5 percent inflation rate for USD? The answer is probably no. USD becoming worthless so soon is not something I predicted, but hey, the numbers don't lie!

[livingfree]

Holding bitcoin really can defeat inflation of USD. It's design to be deflationary not just a currency but as an asset.

I wonder how much percentage would be the inflation if the time of bitcoin reaches $500k-$1M. I think institutions that have saw it firstly are doing their own thing and that's why they've been buying not just millions in bitcoin but hundred millions and more.

[hugeblack]

Consumer indicators may not be a correct measure. Some of the changes that occurred in the past year and we may need some years to adopt them again. Consumer confidence has changed due to the repercussions of the Corona pandemic, the loss of job security, and fears of not being able to pay bills.
we still fighting COID-19 pandemic at so it is early to start evaluating its effects.
Therefore, all these factors make me not trust any economic indicator now.

[justdimin]

Official statistic is always rigged and fake and you can see that if you check consumer prices and purchasing power for us dollar, not to mention that other countries are probably doing worse than United States.
Real inflation is probably around 10% in US and I expect this number to grow even higher with their economical measures, money printing and crazy lockdowns that speeded up this process.
Maybe they want to destroy economy and everything else, and then magically offer worse possible solution with fully controlled total tracking CBDC, so I see Bitcoin and precious metals as only option to escape from this scenario.

I wouldn't say 10% yearly because that is way too much, aren't there things that are much more expensive? There are but the reality is that when you take the average 10% is just way too much, it is not as bad right now and that is why I believe it is higher than what is shown here, but not as much as 10%, I would say over 5% is more correct, about 5 to 6 is where I believe it has been for the past decade, and as we all know there were times when it was even higher but that is shown in the chart anyway.

So long story short there is really nothing that should be considered as a problem because that type of inflation is not that bad as long as it is distributed equally. It is the fact that there are more people living under poverty levels and there are more billionaires, sure if you work hard and provide something that everyone wants making a billion dollars should be your goal but if you make a billion dollars and a million people got a bit poorer, then what is the end? What is going to be the last situation? What if we have 10k+ more billionaires, should we steal their money? No. Should we let everyone else eat dirt? No. We need a solution.

[Wind_FURY]

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation could run hotter than the central bank expected.

“As the reopening continues, shifts in demand can be large and rapid and bottlenecks, hiring difficulties and other constraints could continue to limit how quickly supply can adjust, raising the possibility that inflation could turn out to be higher and more persistent than we expect,” Powell said during the press conference.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/fed-meeting-live-updates-watch-jerome-powell-speech.html

The same assessment made when I started this topic, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5319233.0

But I believe that the Federal Reserve is still in the “It’s OK, it’s just transitory” stage, trying to calm everyone. BUT, as inflation becomes more noticeable, the people have a tendency to buy now in fear of said inflation, causing prices to spiral much faster upwards.

[Lucius]

I agree that Bitcoin can protect us from inflation, but also people need to know that such an investment is always a risk - especially if it is a short-term investment. The US has its own monetary policy and I have no doubt at all that they will be persistent in what they do, because no matter what the government does, you can never save all people from poverty or give them a somewhat dignified life.

The question arises when someone says “Bitcoin can protect you even in the US”, to whom does it refer? I am sure that these are not the millions of homeless people who camp in the city areas and eat in public kitchens, or those who have enough only for basic living needs and have nothing left for risky investments. They will remain at the bottom, regardless of Bitcoin or any technological achievement - unless the whole world is transformed into a completely different society in which there will be no such drastic inequalities.

[magneto]

People have to realise that periods of relative stability when it comes to inflation are exceptions rather than the rule.

I see a lot of people that are comfortable with parking their funds in a high interest savings account that pays less than 1% when inflation was literally 5% YoY last month in the U.S.. There has been no fiat currency that has survived the test of time, regardless of the method of downfall - whether that be political or financial.

BTC should therefore be in the portfolio of anyone who is serious about preserving their purchasing power over the long run. Gold is clunky and archaic, yet BTC has all of that and more.

[gantez]

BTC should therefore be in the portfolio of anyone who is serious about preserving their purchasing power over the long run. Gold is clunky and archaic, yet BTC has all of that and more.

But is stocking of bitcoin the solution from suffering from inflation? In the past one month, bitcoin has barely made it profit in investment for those who hodl at around $40,000/36,000. After the ATH, bitcoin has dropped maybe waiting for another round of bull. The point is reinvesting capital in other aspect like manufacturing and running SMEs can also support that an individual can have enough floating liquidity.

[Kakmakr]

Inflation rate is a flawed measurement ... because it is being manipulated by governments. So, what they do is this... they will never measure the inflation on the same goods and services every year. Inflation is an increase in the level of prices of the goods and services that households buy... but the governments add or remove some goods and services from that CPI basket to suit their manipulated basket.

Some of the goods and services that rise a lot, will be removed from the basket.. so you do not see a real picture of the price increases. (Health & medical and electricity prices and rates etc...) 

You only see what the government want you to see... because they know salary negotiations are linked to Inflation. If they can keep it low... then salary increases can also be kept low. 

[mu_enrico]

From the last 12 years, sure Bitcoin is a phenomenal thing (asset, money, or whatever you want to call it). Not only we can use it as a hedge but also it can make us rich! The important question is, what will happen in the next 12 years? Nobody knows.

However, from short time perspective, the volatility won't protect you from inflation. It's only applicable in the long time horizon.

[BrewMaster]

i've been saying this for over a year now. ever since the US government decided they wanted to print a ton of USD we knew that the big inflation is going to get to us very soon and it has been showing its ugly face for some time now. it is more than the usual 3% and it is showing itself in places like real estate and food costs.

bitcoin on the other hand is still very strong even though it is affected by FUD for some very short periods.

[wxa7115]

Visualizing the History of U.S. Inflation Over 100 Years

Is inflation rising?

The consumer price index (CPI), an index used as a proxy for inflation in consumer prices, offers some answers. In 2020, inflation dropped to 1.4%, the lowest rate since 2015. By comparison, inflation sits around 2.5% as of June 2021.

For context, recent numbers are just above rates seen in 2019, which were 2.3%. Given how the economic shock of COVID-19 depressed prices, rising price levels make sense. However, other variables, such as a growing money supply and rising raw materials costs, could factor into rising inflation.

To show current price levels in context, this Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments shows the history of inflation over 100 years.
....


At the same time, the Federal Reserve is following an “average inflation targeting” regime, which means that if a previous inflation shortfall occurred in the previous year, it would allow for higher inflationary periods to make up for them. As the last decade has been characterized by low inflation and low interest rates, any prolonged period of inflation will likely have pronounced effects on investors and financial markets.

https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/inflation-over-last-100-years/

We can see by the chart that US has a constant 1-3% inflation over the last decade. Somewhat controlled low inflation, but there were huge spike in the past.

Those spikes (some of them more than 15% in a year) can destroy our economic power within a short period. Also, 1-3% inflation rate every year is also consuming our buying power every year. Will we face another of those spikes soon?

I see that bitcoin rises is bringing up this discussion about inflation again, and I see this discussion all over the place.

It is widely known that the CPI is a flawed way to measure inflation as the government manipulates this statistic to show that the inflation is low when in fact this is not the case, there was a time it was useful as the same products were tracked over the decades but then the government manipulated this as the real numbers made them look bad.

To obtain the real numbers just take a look around you and see how much something was worth before the pandemic and how much is it worth now and you will realize the numbers are nowhere close to what the government state.