Repeating the price cycle every 4 years

[alevlaslo]

I look at all good coins, if at least one of them has fallen to the bottom of the price, therefore the entire market will not fall lower from this time

[Sayeds56]

You are ignoring the sell pressure of all the bitcoins already in circulation. The sell pressure only goes up (even with the halving) as more bitcoins are added to the supply.

That's assuming that the demand (buying pressure in opposite of sell pressure) is not going up faster. Considering that bitcoin adoption is still in its very early stages and the demand is increasing, we can safely say that this assumption is not true.

Well said. The assumption of 4 years cycle will become invalid now as we have witnessed massive support by Institutions and adoption of Bitcoin to reasonable level  during the last quarter of 2020 to 1st quarter of 2021 which is very encouraging sign for long term investors of Bitcoin, though currently Bitcoin is passing through correction phase which is expected to end soon and we will see new ATH by the end of 2021.

[leea-1334]

There have been a ton of people out there who end up with making predictions based on the history and then they have ended up losing quite a lot of money, why? Because crypto doesn't move in cycles each day, it is similar that is true but doesn't follow it day by day, so what happens is something that suppose to happen, happens a week early and you end up losing money because of it.

Also because they think just because they think the cycle repeats in the same pattern and that they got the right call. Cycles have happened and they have been similar but never exactly the same,,, so far if you are patient enough the patterns hold but you can never really predict when the performance matches the past.

And again,,, we cannot guarantee the cycle repeats.

[barbara44]

Instead of waiting and staying around the same price at halving for a year and increasing like hell, the price actually went up a ton for a year and then when it suppose to go up it started to crash. Do not put yourself in the same logic as the people before you, history repeating itself is not a guarantee and you will only be upset if you do not be ready for anything else to happen.

It is a logic which worked perfectly for first two halving then why not for the recent halving? 4 year cycle of bitcoin market is set of events like halving happens in the mid of year and then by year end bulls come to action and then next year fully dominated by bulls and then bears come to action in the following year and then sideways market happens for 3 year and then again another halving will come in the 4th year.

So, if you are good and able to recognize some patterns on which how market trades then you can plan up your long term holding. Honestly I did not make use of such pattern of market because I needed to watch and test for last halving but planning up for this time ATH and waiting for December month .

[Lorence.xD]

Also because they think just because they think the cycle repeats in the same pattern and that they got the right call. Cycles have happened and they have been similar but never exactly the same,,, so far if you are patient enough the patterns hold but you can never really predict when the performance matches the past.

And again,,, we cannot guarantee the cycle repeats.

At the least you can still predict it a bit even though the time that it happens isn't similar. I think that if you in some way knows what's going to happen next, you will still at the least have a point of reference that you can use.

[leea-1334]

Also because they think just because they think the cycle repeats in the same pattern and that they got the right call. Cycles have happened and they have been similar but never exactly the same,,, so far if you are patient enough the patterns hold but you can never really predict when the performance matches the past.

And again,,, we cannot guarantee the cycle repeats.

At the least you can still predict it a bit even though the time that it happens isn't similar. I think that if you in some way knows what's going to happen next, you will still at the least have a point of reference that you can use.

Well,,, anyone can do a prediction, we who live in this crypto space know that plenty of people are willing, and the whole space encourages that kind of thinking. Just because a cycle repeats and makes our predictions come true in 1 or 5 years, does not make us any more expert than we were before we made the prediction:)

But I understand what you are saying for sure, and points of reference are all we have!

[worle1bm]

The market is completely unpredictable and the charts don't follow the past history always and the main factor that will derive the Bitcoin prices is mass adoption.When people will enter the market they will demand more of it but the coins are limited to 21 million only and people will not be willing to sell which can reduce the coins in circulation in current which can boost the prices high.Other say if the 3-4 government and some other institutions invest billion dollars in bitcoin that could derive insane rush to btc so charts pattern would change immediately.So this is my own prediction and according to that you can expect say $90-$100k by end of this year as we are still away from halving but till then we would already be above our limits if we HOLD.

[Ararbermas]

Some says that the market repeating the history every 4 years but what's always happened is nothing because it becomes very unpredictable and those who's expecting a good results sometimes end up losing money, perhaps we need to accept the fact that it's just a coincidence, wherein there's no significant results and strong proof that can prove it will gonna happen always in every 4 years..

[rahmatrf331]

Some says that the market repeating the history every 4 years but what's always happened is nothing because it becomes very unpredictable and those who's expecting a good results sometimes end up losing money, perhaps we need to accept the fact that it's just a coincidence, wherein there's no significant results and strong proof that can prove it will gonna happen always in every 4 years..

my analysis of the bitcoin price cycle every 4 years, it's not a coincidence nor a game, but they invest in time deposits. so once every 4 years they make a profit by selling bitcoin and then make an issue as a form of price correction, so they can re-deposit at a very low price.

[fullhdpixel]

Well,,, anyone can do a prediction, we who live in this crypto space know that plenty of people are willing, and the whole space encourages that kind of thinking. Just because a cycle repeats and makes our predictions come true in 1 or 5 years, does not make us any more expert than we were before we made the prediction:)

But I understand what you are saying for sure, and points of reference are all we have!

I am against people making "predictions" as well but in the sense that there are too many that make it sound like they know something others don't, that is the problem I have with it. I am not saying that making predictions is bad, it is bad to tell people like it is guaranteed and we have too many people doing it.

Saying "bitcoin may go up according to this data" is fine, saying "bitcoin will go up because of this data" is the wrong thing. Unfortunately there are too many people who do not understand the difference and claim that they know what is going to happen and write their foundings and predictions like it is going to 100% happen when in reality they have no idea if it will happen or not. It is not easy to live in the crypto world as someone who knows the difference and still get to see people who think they know the whole thing every single day.

[rahmatrf331]

Well,,, anyone can do a prediction, we who live in this crypto space know that plenty of people are willing, and the whole space encourages that kind of thinking. Just because a cycle repeats and makes our predictions come true in 1 or 5 years, does not make us any more expert than we were before we made the prediction:)

But I understand what you are saying for sure, and points of reference are all we have!

I am against people making "predictions" as well but in the sense that there are too many that make it sound like they know something others don't, that is the problem I have with it. I am not saying that making predictions is bad, it is bad to tell people like it is guaranteed and we have too many people doing it.

Saying "bitcoin may go up according to this data" is fine, saying "bitcoin will go up because of this data" is the wrong thing. Unfortunately there are too many people who do not understand the difference and claim that they know what is going to happen and write their foundings and predictions like it is going to 100% happen when in reality they have no idea if it will happen or not. It is not easy to live in the crypto world as someone who knows the difference and still get to see people who think they know the whole thing every single day.

We don't know what will happen in the future and what it will be like. To predict the future, of course there is cause and effect that becomes a benchmark for predicting the future and there must be an assumption to be able to make a decision to buy or sell our investment, be it bitcoin or other altcoins. if we continue to wait for the definite and do nothing so that the result is nothing, there will be no loss - no gain.

[Kittygalore]

If the next cycle falls under the same date and time, I think that it's enough evidence that bitcoin is repeating a cycle that can help you predict the right time to buy and sell. My only problem is that what happens if there really was a cycle and we know how to do it with the market, will the pattern be the same because people will have a different movement than the last time?

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

If the next cycle falls under the same date and time, I think that it's enough evidence that bitcoin is repeating a cycle that can help you predict the right time to buy and sell. My only problem is that what happens if there really was a cycle and we know how to do it with the market, will the pattern be the same because people will have a different movement than the last time?

We can't really say that for certain, we don't have enough data to conclude, bitcoin is like 10 years old, so the sample data is so small. Maybe we can see different cycles as the price goes up, the growth might slowdown, or there will be one supercycle instead of 2 every 4 years. So there is no definite pattern for now. All we can do is speculate and try to predict the future price the best we can do.

[Hippocrypto]

1) high April 13, 2013, bottom July 1, 2013, then a lot of X's for the new year
2) high June 5, 2017, bottom July 10, 2017, then a lot of x's for the new year
3) high April 12, 2021, bottom ... july 2021, then a lot of x's for the new year



BTC will grow to 300 000 dollars soon, price became 1100 after 6 months:


~snip~

Love to see this chart history, just missing those older days that I made same mistakes all over again. The opportunity once lost, could come back but not that easy because we need to wait for more months or even years. If we'll have to wait for the same pattern, I guess 4 years is too far to take a journey. $300k was too big, maybe let's just optimize our predictions at $100k stability before this year 2021 ends.

[leea-1334]

I am against people making "predictions" as well but in the sense that there are too many that make it sound like they know something others don't, that is the problem I have with it. I am not saying that making predictions is bad, it is bad to tell people like it is guaranteed and we have too many people doing it.

Saying "bitcoin may go up according to this data" is fine, saying "bitcoin will go up because of this data" is the wrong thing. Unfortunately there are too many people who do not understand the difference and claim that they know what is going to happen and write their foundings and predictions like it is going to 100% happen when in reality they have no idea if it will happen or not. It is not easy to live in the crypto world as someone who knows the difference and still get to see people who think they know the whole thing every single day.

Worse,,, most of these people other than the actual traders themselves and analysts whose main and actual job it is to be making prediction, they even are just having the stuff written for them. I know because one of my colleagues main job is to write predictions for random CEOs to push out to all those crypto news outlets and if they like it they pick it and add it as part of a big article.

So it is all not even to manipulate the market but for exposure but it ends up being used to manipulate as the media picks what it wants to suit the agenda.

[fullhdpixel]

We don't know what will happen in the future and what it will be like. To predict the future, of course there is cause and effect that becomes a benchmark for predicting the future and there must be an assumption to be able to make a decision to buy or sell our investment, be it bitcoin or other altcoins. if we continue to wait for the definite and do nothing so that the result is nothing, there will be no loss - no gain.

That's fine, if you do not want to make any decisions then do one, and if you do not want to make any predictions then do not make one. The problem here is that if you want to make any trade you want and if you believe that it will go up or down then you can make your own movement and nobody will tell you anything about it. However if you are telling other people what to do that is a hugely different thing and that is a big shame.

I believe bitcoin will go up, but I do not go around and tell people that bitcoin will go up and they should buy more, sure in the long run we all know it may have a good future but who knows if it will reach 10k before it reaches 60k again? None of us know that so that is why I do not tell people to do this or that, it is just not something I am comfortable with. Do whatever you want with your own money but do not tell other people what they should do with theirs.

[Expecto]

I wonder if this pattern is really a coincidence or there is really a pattern for Bitcoin price. Due to the volatility, we can't predict what will happen even if we analyze the movements very carefully. If this pattern continues in the coming years also, then I'll start believing that such thing exists.

[alevlaslo]

bitcoin differs from other assets in the absence of manipulation by the state, people buy it as they are used to buying, so the cycles are repeated

[Yaunfitda]

bitcoin differs from other assets in the absence of manipulation by the state, people buy it as they are used to buying, so the cycles are repeated

But there is still manipulation by some whales in the market right? obviously, it's open and free for everyone to play so still manipulation can be there at any given time (bullish or bearish cycle). I'm not really sure of the pattern though, the only pattern who have is the bitcoin block halvening which happens every 4 years and that's where we speculate that cycles do happen because of this one. But as the market markets and the supply is going down, this pattern might change over time.

[lepbagong]

bitcoin differs from other assets in the absence of manipulation by the state, people buy it as they are used to buying, so the cycles are repeated

bitcoin moves because the market does it all, so there can be no intervention from anyone let alone the state. what the state may do is prohibition, which greatly affects the state of the market. so bitcoin is a bit disturbed because many investors are afraid of losing, if they can't be affected, bitcoin will be stable.

But there is still manipulation by some whales in the market right? obviously, it's open and free for everyone to play so still manipulation can be there at any given time (bullish or bearish cycle). I'm not really sure of the pattern though, the only pattern who have is the bitcoin block halvening which happens every 4 years and that's where we speculate that cycles do happen because of this one. But as the market markets and the supply is going down, this pattern might change over time.

Yes, you are right, about market manipulation, that is their goal because the market's goals can be influenced, especially since many investors are still unstable and can be influenced by it they exist and seek to profit from something like this.
the halving that occurs every 4 years can certainly achieve renewable ATH and it will always happen and seems to have become a habit, because the first and second halvings have been seen and even the third, although it has not yet reached its peak which may occur at the end of this year.