Repeating the price cycle every 4 years

[alevlaslo]

[dezoel]

I doubt that price moves in cycles but people keep telling this to everyone. Look if you keep doing this and believing that this is true then eventually one day you are going to lose a lot of money. Realize that bitcoin is not something that is constantly dropping, it is something that is not constantly going up, it is not a pattern and it is just luck that it looked similar to each other twice and that's it. By this calculation we should see a HUGE increase in 2024-2025 as well (because it was 2020-2021 when price went up" and I doubt that it will happen.

Even the difference between 2017 December is not the same because add 4 years to that and you get yourself 2021 December, and yet we are not even there now and still managed to go up, it was around September-October 2020 when the increase started, let's say November to be sure and that is about nearly 3 years, even less than that. So patterns are not always same.

[STT]

Cycles would relate to waves but its not duplicated or tracable in some simple way.   There are many factors behind movement, amplitude and other variables have to be considered.
Iam not a great fan of analogues like the world is just on a map and GPS says the travel plan has us going this way, it wont be like that.   The four year plan to price movement I generally agree with & the scale of moves so far suggest we arent really done here despite appearances.

[SirLancelot]

It's a good analysis really. But we never succeed in proving that Bitcoin price has a some kind of cycle like this. Because such thing doesn't exist when it comes to the structure of the cryptocurrencies in the market. I'd really like to see the price at that level. But it's so hard to predict what will happen exactly.

It's hard because of a few reasons.

1) The growth for any coin is highest within its first few years. Bitcoin has seen like 50,000x growth, if not more, in the last 12 years but if the same growth happens in the next 12 years, it just sounds ridiculous and funny.

2) As the market gets mature there are other projects ready to outplay Bitcoins and although I am sure no other crypto will ever have a bigger market cap than Bitcoins, all these altcoins do eat up a lot of funds that come into the market.

3) It's entirely possible that the government has banned the use of bitcoins within the next 4 years and hence although insane possibilities are there, I don't think the same growth can happen in every 4-year cycle.

[barota]

i agree that prices bitcoin have same movement or charts every 4 years because of halving in the first degre , the halving of past year 2020 , we dont know if the bull run finished or not , the two propability can happend and 65k can be the highest then prices can reach 20k even 15k the other propability is bull run can be in pause situation then prices can reach 100 k  , traders dont know the future of prices bitcoin the broblem of bear market is the continuation for long time over two years , waiting the prices for going up is very hard

[DU18]

It's a good analysis really. But we never succeed in proving that Bitcoin price has a some kind of cycle like this. Because such thing doesn't exist when it comes to the structure of the cryptocurrencies in the market. I'd really like to see the price at that level. But it's so hard to predict what will happen exactly.

although there is no certainty that the cycle will repeat itself, but strangely we can see if it is like a habit that continues to happen and in my opinion what happened this year is somewhat worse than what happened a few years ago, I still remember 2018, China too prohibiting crypto transaction activities in their country but it only slightly affected the price of bitcoin at that time, but it is different from what is happening now when the Chinese government banned bitcoin and it had a huge impact on the market and in fact the price of bitcoin even fell almost 60% from its highest price .

[Lanatsa]

It's a good analysis really. But we never succeed in proving that Bitcoin price has a some kind of cycle like this. Because such thing doesn't exist when it comes to the structure of the cryptocurrencies in the market. I'd really like to see the price at that level. But it's so hard to predict what will happen exactly.

although there is no certainty that the cycle will repeat itself, but strangely we can see if it is like a habit that continues to happen and in my opinion what happened this year is somewhat worse than what happened a few years ago, I still remember 2018, China too prohibiting crypto transaction activities in their country but it only slightly affected the price of bitcoin at that time, but it is different from what is happening now when the Chinese government banned bitcoin and it had a huge impact on the market and in fact the price of bitcoin even fell almost 60% from its highest price .

We do have our own observations in the market but with those chart gurus out there then they are the ones who would be elaborating these similar patterns and something like that
which we can really say that there is some sort of pattern but everything is still unpredictable.

Cryptocurrency can fucked up TA from time to time whenever theres a news or event that do happen in the market. There is no such cycle because everything is varying with demand or acceptance.

[Raflesia]

i agree that prices bitcoin have same movement or charts every 4 years because of halving in the first degre , the halving of past year 2020 , we dont know if the bull run finished or not , the two propability can happend and 65k can be the highest then prices can reach 20k even 15k the other propability is bull run can be in pause situation then prices can reach 100 k  , traders dont know the future of prices bitcoin the broblem of bear market is the continuation for long time over two years , waiting the prices for going up is very hard

This might be the cycle but there’s no guarantee on this one and maybe, it changes already since the adoption has increases every year, and we are on a different time now meaning there’s a chance for a more bull trend than usual. We can have a good strategy now while the price is still down, we still have time to accumulate, just invest the money you are willing to lose and wait patiently if you’re a long term player.

Every year will always be different with the cycles that occur but this is a good year where ATH 64k has really peaked and only a 50% drop from the highest price for me this is not a problem if there is a good strategy why not take advantage of it now the price is already quite low in the long run if we hold it.

Every trend is bound to trigger something new and this is bound to happen again, will 100k be reached in the near future or in the next 4 years?
If you are more confident then collect it from now on and forget about it until the savings build up in the future.

[Fortify]

1) high April 13, 2013, bottom July 1, 2013, then a lot of X's for the new year
2) high June 5, 2017, bottom July 10, 2017, then a lot of x's for the new year
3) high April 12, 2021, bottom ... july 2021, then a lot of x's for the new year

BTC will grow to 300 000 dollars soon, price became 1100 after 6 months:

I think for these graphs to be useful one key piece of information is missing - the attrition rate of Bitcoin. Over time we are steadily seeing more and more Bitcoin being lost, which will never be available again in future. This could be seen as a damaging element of Bitcoin because it has a fixed amount in circulation and nobody really knows how desirable fractions of a decimal will be to holders in future. There is so much left over "dust" in wallets and people dying every day without leaving access to their fortunes hidden in wallets. That may very well push the price up, but it is also making it less usable as a functional currency for conducting regular trades in future - which should always be considered the bedrock of value that lies behind it. Otherwise you just end up with fickle speculators who also end up making it less relevant over time for it's original purpose.

[bakasabo]

I would say yes and no that 4 year cycle repeats the price. There is always something that pushes the price up. The price dont just grow up everything 4 years because of nothing. Otherwise it will be to simple to get rich holding crypto. Last years Elon Musk helped the price to grow up. 4 years from that, boom of ICOs has brought a lot of money to cryptocurrency and pushed the price up. Dont know what is going to happen that will push the price in 2024, but it is definitely going to happen. Mystery of number 4

[lixer]

although there is no certainty that the cycle will repeat itself, but strangely we can see if it is like a habit that continues to happen and in my opinion what happened this year is somewhat worse than what happened a few years ago, I still remember 2018, China too prohibiting crypto transaction activities in their country but it only slightly affected the price of bitcoin at that time, but it is different from what is happening now when the Chinese government banned bitcoin and it had a huge impact on the market and in fact the price of bitcoin even fell almost 60% from its highest price .

I do agree that the drop here in this season is not as bad as the 2018 increase, that was just horrible. We are talking about a drop from 20k to 3.5k and that is about 82% or so drop, whereas this year we had something like 50% drop and that is a lot better. I know 50% is still a huge drop but we weren't 60k all that long, we were mainly 50-55k most of the time and only just less than a week at 60k which means that we shouldn't be even calculating as 50%, we should be calculating it at around 40% or so drop at the very worst.

That is really a lot better and I feel like we should be feeling very lucky to have that this year as a bear run, it is nearly nothing compared to all the other huge drops in the previous years. I do believe that we could definitely reach to a level where we can definitely make it to a level where we are 50k+ again and it shouldn't really take that long.

[ILuckyGuyI]

I don't see it very near to see Bitcoin price reaching $300k. It would be really awesome even if the price reaches $100k in this year. When it comes to $300k, I think that we need at least 2 or 3 years to see it happening.

[Reatim]

1) high April 13, 2013, bottom July 1, 2013, then a lot of X's for the new year
2) high June 5, 2017, bottom July 10, 2017, then a lot of x's for the new year
3) high April 12, 2021, bottom ... july 2021, then a lot of x's for the new year



BTC will grow to 300 000 dollars soon, price became 1100 after 6 months:

That's a Huge expectation mate , Bitcoin can't even Break 70k and now in  6 months time will reach 300K?

Nope this is More than Impossible to happen and will only brings frustration in our part if we tend to believe.

I don't see it very near to see Bitcoin price reaching $300k. It would be really awesome even if the price reaches $100k in this year. When it comes to $300k, I think that we need at least 2 or 3 years to see it happening.

Even in another 4 years 300,000 is not coming mate because 100k is i believe enough value for bitcoin in another 5 years time .

Though i must admit that I don't want to exaggerate things and i also dont wanna fall from traps.

[BrewMaster]

That's a Huge expectation mate , Bitcoin can't even Break 70k and now in  6 months time will reach 300K?

not so long ago bitcoin couldn't break $4k and all of a sudden in less than a month it reached $6k which was about 2x higher. and in a year price reached $60k which was 20x higher.

why do you have a hard time believing that price can go up another 10x in a year? have you never seen bitcoin charts ever?

[tbct_mt2]

not so long ago bitcoin couldn't break $4k and all of a sudden in less than a month it reached $6k which was about 2x higher. and in a year price reached $60k which was 20x higher.

why do you have a hard time believing that price can go up another 10x in a year? have you never seen bitcoin charts ever?

Bitcoin is in months of discount that started since mid of May. If people miss the discount which lasts a few months, it is fault of them because the market gives them enough time to think, wipe out hesitation, prepare capital and get in.

If they reject great discounts that show in front of their computers every day, over months, they should feel regret.

https://twitter.com/libertariman/status/1416589234505322499
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1407620265475989506

[justdimin]

Bitcoin is in months of discount that started since mid of May. If people miss the discount which lasts a few months, it is fault of them because the market gives them enough time to think, wipe out hesitation, prepare capital and get in.

If they reject great discounts that show in front of their computers every day, over months, they should feel regret.

https://twitter.com/libertariman/status/1416589234505322499
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1407620265475989506

I honestly think that there is a good chance that we are talking about a huge advantage for people who realize that bitcoin is something that is definitely not going to be low for a long time, it is going to go up very soon and even if it doesn't go up "very soon" it is still going to go up.

There will be a lot of people who will buy bitcoin at 80k in the future saying "I wish I bought at lower" and I can promise you that some of them are around here right now, they are saying "I will buy later in case it goes even lower" and that is what they are doing right now, they are basically focusing on the future and how bear can continue and the price could lower, so they will buy there, which they may end up buying way too late when the price goes up a lot and that is when they will buy up. Of course there will be some lucky ones like us, and we should feel awesome about it.

[freedomgo]

That's a Huge expectation mate , Bitcoin can't even Break 70k and now in  6 months time will reach 300K?

not so long ago bitcoin couldn't break $4k and all of a sudden in less than a month it reached $6k which was about 2x higher. and in a year price reached $60k which was 20x higher.

why do you have a hard time believing that price can go up another 10x in a year? have you never seen bitcoin charts ever?

Even 50x it's possible because nothing is impossible if the market is in a bullish period. I think it's easier to predict the price movement after the bull run than the price during the bull run, based on the trend, after the bull run, the market will struggle due to big corrections and I'm confident that we are at the current stage now.

[Reatim]

That's a Huge expectation mate , Bitcoin can't even Break 70k and now in  6 months time will reach 300K?

why do you have a hard time believing that price can go up another 10x in a year? have you never seen bitcoin charts ever?

I don't want to disappoint you Guys as I al also at some point bully about bitcoin but i don't wanna frustrate myself from expecting then fails.

I have done enough back in 2018 and now i just want to let things happen along the way , and Mind tell you i am still Holding my bitcoin but of course exaggerating is not part of my views in the days now.

But Yeah Bitcoin had proven this many times before so yes probability is there .

[buwaytress]

why do you have a hard time believing that price can go up another 10x in a year? have you never seen bitcoin charts ever?

I don't want to disappoint you Guys as I al also at some point bully about bitcoin but i don't wanna frustrate myself from expecting then fails.

Personally, 10x of whatever n price Bitcoin's at has always been as unlikely to happen in either direction. So today, I find it as difficult to see how we could see $3,100 as it is for me to see $310,000.

Not that I'm discounting either -- we've got to be naive to think there is such a thing as impossible or even what it means to stretch "reality" in Bitcoin.

Best of all, over the next 12 months, 10x in either way works out for me =D

[Dhaniii]

Cycles would relate to waves but its not duplicated or tracable in some simple way.   There are many factors behind movement, amplitude and other variables have to be considered.
Iam not a great fan of analogues like the world is just on a map and GPS says the travel plan has us going this way, it wont be like that.   The four year plan to price movement I generally agree with & the scale of moves so far suggest we arent really done here despite appearances.

This 4 year cycle is not a necessity, but indeed an economic principle made for the stock business or trade business in other words, it is said to be a 4 year period. so it's only natural that once there is a big market price correction, because this cycle returns to the bottom position again.