Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO!

[jojo69]

Perhaps the boxes should be updated to show truncated to whole dollars, inclusive. I wanted the next box but I got the one before it due to decimal points, but I guess I don't really mind. Picking a range instead of a number also makes sense ... I'll let you guys decide how it all works out in the end.

The cents is what came out of my spreadsheet. In the end, a lower box doesn't matter much, since your prediction is (almost) the same. Selecting entire boxes can be a problem if the winning box wasn't selected. That's why the closest number is better.

my prediction will be $65432

This box is taken:

247. $65,430 alegotardo

@ChuckBuck: please make a new prediction, and if you edit your post, send me a PM so I don't overlook it.

262. $87,450 jojo69 pending thinking reasoning

Your current prediction isn't valid yet. Please try harder:

I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen...

There is some effort required, not just a random pick.

[1714611377]

1714611377

[Icygreen]

^ LOL  
E for effort but I think you're supposed to use math and science 

[UnDerDoG81]

124k Box 279

[babo]

is hard do predict the correct value of bitcoin
but the game is nice

I'm not kidding, so I'll try to make a serious prediction

until recently I believed that bitcoin could touch 75k within this year, then I changed my mind thinking it could easily reach 100k
now I am no longer so convinced of my latest prediction
so I say 90001 $


263. box

[BIT-BENDER]

227 :  $44,300
Really after seeing the interesting, price road for three consecutive years one might get the feeling that it's just automatically channelled that way, we have already had $60k plus in the price, are we going to see that again this year? We might just some time before the last month of the year, but I think at the end of the year the price of Bitcoin would not be more than $45k or less than $40k the reason I choose the figures I did, but it just what I think and am excited to see how this goes, God willing.

[El duderino_]

@jojo…. It’s merit worthy though 

[STT]

Jojo 65432 isnt a number on a roulette wheel.  Your number was so high, it obviously wasn't a random distribution guess or you'd have placed -20k/+20k or similar around the current market price.   You went way out of bounds, so just say why are you so bullish to believe we move this much in 5 months.  Depreciating dollar or whatever would be valid since its a dollar price, elastic price rebound, rising inflation.   Throw a dart at the finance/economy section of your newspaper wouldnt be far off tbh

^ LOL  
E for effort but I think you're supposed to use math and science  

Probability is maths, my old teacher would be upset to hear her studies and lessons were in vain.  Its hundreds of years old valued subject to study, same guy who did pressure laws (pascals) formed the first laws of probability.  Its used in engineering for real world outcomes I believe but especially important for finance vs risk outcome probability.

He introduced a primitive form of roulette and the roulette wheel in his search for a perpetual motion machine.

200-days moving average  at reasonable quality of smoothing should hit

I just stuck a ruler on its steady trajectory and lined up December.  Problem is theres alot of days ahead and 200 MA can alter considerably but we can presume trend continues as the last 200 days on average.   By contest end the 200DMA will only include about 30 days of what is now showing in that average, so it'll be missing the whole start of 2021 the bullish bit.   I took 50 week as its almost the whole year, less bullish now more averaged but should be higher in December then now.

[LoyceV]

I've updated the Prediction overview. Sorry for the delay, real life caught up with me.

Please check your entry in the list! If someone is missing or "pending", you need to post about it

124k Box 279

Sorry, you can't join because you have negative feedback, you're 146 earned Merit short (and you didn't even put any effort into your prediction).

227 :  $44,300

Sorry, this box is taken:

227. $44,444 BTCLiz

Please (@BIT-BENDER) make a new prediction. If you edit your post, send me a PM so I don't overlook it.

[hugeblack]

88,214 - 89,333

[ivomm]

I may surprise you with my bearish prediciton, but I decided to use a random number generator (between 10K and 333K), and here is the first number I've got:



So, my prediction is 211. $32339. But since I'm terrible at predictions, I guess the price will be above 100K by then.

[LoyceV]

88,214 - 89,333

Please add a prediction, and the reasoning that got you there.
I don't get it, that isn't even a valid box:

262. $87,824.33 - $89,580.80
263. $89,580.81 - $91,372.42

I decided to use a random number generator

I haven't added your prediction yet. Allow me to quote El duderino_ and myself:

I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen...

There is some effort required, not just a random pick.

El duderino_ asked me to add my prediction too. Even though I don't like conflicts of interest, I'll make a prediction. I'll make it so bullish that if I'd win, the conflict of interest will be completely forgotten because every Bitcoin HODLer will be celebrating

First, some graphs:

(source)

The graph doesn't have enough pixels to highlight December 7th 2021, so the 6th is as close as I could get. Just ignore the amount in the popup, that's the pixel my mouse was on for the screenshot to draw a vertical line close to the Prediction date.
Each halving shows a more or less similar pattern with a new ATH after a while. The peak between the second and third halving took longer than the peak between the first and second halving. The most recent peak didn't feel like a peak. Tytanowy Janusz put it nicely: "It's too round at the top. It need to be pointy." Three months of moving sideways doesn't feel like that's all Bitcoin can do.
If anything, it looks like what happened around May and June 2013:

(source: Colin Talks Crypto on Twitter, but I can't find the original post)
Based on this, the ATH in the previous months was just a "baby ATH". The big one is yet to come, it could be August/September (my wife's prediction), it could be December 7th (El duderino_'s date), or it could be early 2022.

We know Bitcoin never goes up in dollar value in a straight line. The road to ATH is paved with drops:

(source)

That's why I keep telling myself it's going to be fine

And then there is of course PlanB:

(source)

In short, the graphs above show why I believe Bitcoin's price could be (considerably) higher in December than it is now. As for how high, I'll go back to the rainbow graph. On December 6th 2021, the graph shows $178,845 for the dark red Maximum Bubble Territory. I'll take this as my prediction.

@El duderino_: I can't in good conscience decide for myself if my prediction qualifies. Please let me know if I can add this one:
297. $178,845 LoyceV

[ivomm]

I decided to use a random number generator

I haven't added your prediction yet. Allow me to quote El duderino_ and myself:

I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen...

There is some effort required, not just a random pick.

I think that the chances for any number between 10K and 333K are equal and I can defend each of it easily. Let's see... Now we are around 33K and clearly a large scale pump and dump is going on in a 20% range 30K-36K. Since the institutions like Grayscale stopped buying, at some point the support at 30K may be broken, heading for 20K-25K. However, after 5 months the damage will be repaired and the price will return to the current range.

[Altryist]

Box 241 : $58,683

I expect the price to be even higher in December, but I will dwell on this forecast, since after growth in the fall, there may be a slight decline in early December. In the fall, the market will start to grow again and in 2022 we will see the continuation of bullrun.

[Wind_FURY]

Box: 329, $333,333

Precise reason why I chose that price-point, none, but I believe the current bull cycle will again surge, landing on a new ATH between $300,000 and $500,000. The billionaires are not done buying Bitcoin, and I believe they, like us plebs, know that buying NOW, is a front run to those buying THEN during the next halving.

The Chinese Mining Exodus saw 60% of Bitcoin’s mining infrastructure shut down. The network remains as resilient, and robust, and it’s chuggling along producing block after block, going to the next halving.

[vapourminer]

242. $60,000 vapourminer and I quote: "crap i will add actual TA in a bit"

ok so made up carefully calculated my number using advanced maths and sciences <sup>*

*</sup> well kinda

anyway here is edited post
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5346118.msg57337011#msg57337011

[buwaytress]

Don't know about you guys, since I don't really visit the threads here so much, but gotta say the past page or so has been highly entertaining. Great effort, but not necessarily what duderino could be looking for haha.

P.S. Rainbow chart! It's second time I've seen it but you do know a rainbow ends back down at the other end, right Loyce? =p What is the firesale period of the 6 Dec 2021 on this chart and when approx? I'd love to for the first time to have cash on hand for firesale;)

[malevolent]

$37000 is my number.

It's an optimistic guess, much like my previous one, mostly because it's a game, but I believe there could still be enough demand for some sideways action, and the only thing preventing that is a single tweet from Mr M, or another well-timed rumour of someone banning Bitcoin. 

[LUCKMCFLY]

Thank you very much El duderino_,

My prediction for BTC is: $91000,

My reasoning is based on the fact that the first week of December many emotions usually arise on the part of people, the demand increases and the supply decreases, and taking into account that now El Salvador adopted BTC and that Paraguay probably also adopts BTC, The price will start to grow faster as I strongly believe that this year BTC will hit $100k.

[El duderino_]

$37000 is my number.

It's an optimistic guess, much like my previous one, mostly because it's a game, but I believe there could still be enough demand for some sideways action, and the only thing preventing that is a single tweet from Mr M, or another well-timed rumour of someone banning Bitcoin. 

its almost pessimistic     

Though I honestly really don't know where we going, I think the higher ranks tbh, money printing, people & investor etc searching for places other as FIAT to store there wealth... many big companies etc exploring the BTC-world, more and more people understanding BTC is scarce and useful etc number of users keeps increasing and is still very low at the moment ut more and more adoption... Reaching 6 digits would be an honest price for BTC to be at eoy imho...

[LoyceV]

I've updated the Prediction overview.

Please check your entry in the list! If someone is missing or "pending", you need to post about it

Should I start removing the pending entries to free up their spots? @TheBeardedBaby @jojo69 @JimboToronto: you've all had more than a week already to add your reasoning for those predictions.
Update: El duderino_ says yes. I've removed those 3 pending entries. All of you can still join before entries close (on 10-07(July)-2021 13.00 CET). Please make a new post if you do.

P.S. Rainbow chart! It's second time I've seen it but you do know a rainbow ends back down at the other end, right Loyce? =p

The rainbow is a metaphore It's only used because of the colors, and this isn't going to be a bow, it looks more like logarithmic growth.

What is the firesale period of the 6 Dec 2021 on this chart and when approx? I'd love to for the first time to have cash on hand for firesale;)

There is no "when" in the graph, it's called a Fire Sale whenever the price reaches the dark blue zone.

My prediction for BTC is: $91000,

Sorry, that box is taken. Please make a new prediction, and if you edit your post, send me a PM so I don't overlook it.

$37000 is my number.
It's an optimistic guess

its almost pessimistic      

He must have forgotten a zero