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Author Topic: Signals  (Read 1115 times)
finway
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December 02, 2011, 04:43:49 AM
 #1

According to
http://blockchain.info/charts
,
Something is happening,
maybe it's BTC's turning time coming.

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions
http://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd
http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed


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ElectricMucus
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December 02, 2011, 05:06:12 AM
 #2

Wrong board. (kinda)

Also can you please point it out?

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
RyNinDaCleM
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December 02, 2011, 05:23:54 AM
 #3

Er'thang seems to be turning up. Some at record levels. Might be a good sign. Lets see how it holds up.

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December 02, 2011, 09:20:30 PM
 #4

I just noticed hash speed finally has an up-trend also.  Weird.



Edit:  I forgot it always does that right after a difficulty change until enough data is collected to smooth out the estimations.
Eveofwar
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December 02, 2011, 09:26:27 PM
 #5

I just noticed hash speed finally has an up-trend also.  Weird.



Edit:  I forgot it always does that right after a difficulty change until enough data is collected to smooth out the estimations.

Also looks like it's dropping right after the gain; looking at the very edge.  But yes, judging hashrate after difficulty change is a no-no Tongue
Jonathan Ryan Owens
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December 02, 2011, 09:30:47 PM
 #6

a 1 - 2% difference in hashing power is meaningless. Further, it doesn't signal bullish sentiments at all, it only signals that there's more smaller miners either hoarding coins or mining coins. Either way, there's 7200 a day of which some % get sold to pay utility bills.

Why is an upward shift in mining power a signal of Bullishness? Someone? Anyone?

evoorhees
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December 02, 2011, 09:56:04 PM
 #7

This is the important chart...

http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume
Dan The Man
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December 02, 2011, 10:17:14 PM
 #8

A lot of Bitcoins. In my opinion, this could only have neutral or negative effects on the price depending on if the intention is to put these coins on the market or just relocate them.

damnek
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December 02, 2011, 10:32:41 PM
 #9


Does anyone have an idea what is causing the spikes at the end?

Be a voice, not an echo
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December 02, 2011, 10:42:28 PM
 #10

Why is an upward shift in mining power a signal of Bullishness? Someone? Anyone?
Presumably, each person mining seriously on GPUs (where power costs are a factor) is looking for some minimum "real dollar" value per hash to make running their rig (and paying those bills) worthwhile. So, presumably, miner beliefs that the price is going up = more miners firing up their rigs = upswing in total network hashpower, and miner beliefs that the price is going down = more miners mothballing their rigs = downswing in total network hashpower.

Of course there are other factors that go into this kind of math (for instance, the current difficulty, which just got reduced a couple days ago). But expected electricity return on BTC (i.e. expected exchange rate) is definitely one of them.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
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December 02, 2011, 10:48:36 PM
 #11

Yes, Qoh, you nailed it.  When people get excited that the price is going up they start mining or resume mining.  New people discovering bitcoin = fractionally more miners that don't want to buy or don't know any better.  At first it looks like hash rate of the network doesn't mean anything related to price, but it's more intricately connected than that.
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