Signals

[finway]

According to
http://blockchain.info/charts
,
Something is happening,
maybe it's BTC's turning time coming.

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions
http://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd
http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed

[ElectricMucus]

Wrong board. (kinda)

Also can you please point it out?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Er'thang seems to be turning up. Some at record levels. Might be a good sign. Lets see how it holds up.

[phorensic]

I just noticed hash speed finally has an up-trend also.  Weird.



Edit:  I forgot it always does that right after a difficulty change until enough data is collected to smooth out the estimations.

[Eveofwar]

I just noticed hash speed finally has an up-trend also.  Weird.



Edit:  I forgot it always does that right after a difficulty change until enough data is collected to smooth out the estimations.

Also looks like it's dropping right after the gain; looking at the very edge.  But yes, judging hashrate after difficulty change is a no-no

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

a 1 - 2% difference in hashing power is meaningless. Further, it doesn't signal bullish sentiments at all, it only signals that there's more smaller miners either hoarding coins or mining coins. Either way, there's 7200 a day of which some % get sold to pay utility bills.

Why is an upward shift in mining power a signal of Bullishness? Someone? Anyone?

[evoorhees]

This is the important chart...

http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume

[Dan The Man]

A lot of Bitcoins. In my opinion, this could only have neutral or negative effects on the price depending on if the intention is to put these coins on the market or just relocate them.

[damnek]

This is the important chart...

http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume

Does anyone have an idea what is causing the spikes at the end?

[Qoheleth]

Why is an upward shift in mining power a signal of Bullishness? Someone? Anyone?

Presumably, each person mining seriously on GPUs (where power costs are a factor) is looking for some minimum "real dollar" value per hash to make running their rig (and paying those bills) worthwhile. So, presumably, miner beliefs that the price is going up = more miners firing up their rigs = upswing in total network hashpower, and miner beliefs that the price is going down = more miners mothballing their rigs = downswing in total network hashpower.

Of course there are other factors that go into this kind of math (for instance, the current difficulty, which just got reduced a couple days ago). But expected electricity return on BTC (i.e. expected exchange rate) is definitely one of them.

[phorensic]

Yes, Qoh, you nailed it.  When people get excited that the price is going up they start mining or resume mining.  New people discovering bitcoin = fractionally more miners that don't want to buy or don't know any better.  At first it looks like hash rate of the network doesn't mean anything related to price, but it's more intricately connected than that.