Do you think Bitcoin will manage to get back on $50,000 within this month?
I remain 50-50 for whether $50K will be re-tested this month. Price now appears to be somewhat "trapped" between a newer volume-based distribution zone (circled red, $45-$50K) after recent price action around these levels as well as a relatively huge accumulation zone (circled green, $30-40K). "Filling in" the volume gap with some sideways trading ($40-45K) wouldn't be an unlikely scenario at this point.
While price struggles to find support today from the 200 Day MA, others basic indicators (RSI, CMF) remaining neutral or flat, that further confirms the indecision in the market. So too early to tell at this point. Price is more or less bang in the middle of local top around $60K and local lows of $30K, that of around $45K. Therefore it's basically in the middle of nowhere, so could go either direction.
Because for me, we will see another bearish or sideways month if ever we monthly close below $40,000. But as you said, the $37,000 - $40,000 level is too strong support Bitcoin, and let's hope it will act a major support until end of the month.
Indeed closing the month (or even the week) below $40K would likely re-test the lower ranges of the accumulation zone
towards the VPVR around $35K (that big bar of volume), followed by some panic selling into support given the number of traders concerned with a break below this key level of old resistance. Similar to how closing below the 200 Day MA could prove fatal in the short-term.
None the less, the 50 Week MA support line continues to rise while the 0.236 and 0.382 "pocket of support" from the local top to local bottom lines up nicely with both this mid-term MA as well as volume support. I'd be surprised if investors holding back from buying $30K lows or $40K break to the upside won't get greedy around these prices.
This despite the 50 Day & 200 Day MA's below very close to a golden cross. It currently looks like a sell signal within a possible bull trap, not a wise time to be shorting the price either:
Ideally price continues to correct towards $40K to make old resistance into new support, or trade sideways. I wouldn't want to see the distribution zone re-tested at present, as otherwise there could easily be more distribution above (roughly $47K-$48.5K) than accumulation below at the $38.5-$40.5K. This wouldn't be a good sign to me, similar to lowering the distribution zone from $56K down to $47.5K ish wasn't particularly healthy.
Yeah looking at the above chart from back in middle of Aug, seems that the POV was around $56K. Meaning that most people entered at around that price. This is important because it means that those which are fearful are probably wanting to get out at break even from a near 50% loss.
While somewhat true, this is based on the shorter-term picture: a volume profile of approximately 6 months. As shown above by the volume profile of approximately 9 months, the accumulation zone between $30-40K is substantially larger than the distribution zones of around $50K and $60K. A shorter-term VPVR is a good indicator for shorter-term price action, while the long-term VPVR is better for the longer-term picture.
I actually had a limit sell order to hedge some of my stack around $54-55K and unfortunately looks like I got front run by about $1-2k or so. Seems most of the other traders were also thinking the same and sold before those levels.
I had plans to hedge around similar levels and also got front run. This is part of the problem here, many who wanted to take some profits (even as a hedge) didn't get the opportunity. This is probably the reason why prices will slide down to $40K levels at this point, because if people missed out on $55K, many will accept $45K prices as still a "good exit" (even if not really), rather than wait patiently for a re-test to reduce risk.
Had a very modest sell order even at 53.5 k and just this week had to accept a spot at 47 as could not wait much longer. That was when 51 seemed to hold very well, so was slightly surprised the depth changed quickly and the slope proved so slippery thereafter.
Likely many I imagine. I was supposed to put a stop loss in for my trading account around $49.5K, but didn't get round to it nor anticipate the considerable dump either. The technicals didn't suggest a considerable sell-off after resistance was broken, but ultimately these things happen even if against the odds (they will happen 1 in every 4 or 5 times basically, in my my mind at least). Likely many, I also considered price would generally recover from $30K levels much sooner than expected. To me this just means price will be more parabolic when eventually new ATH is reached, so no real loss long-term.
