[Chart] Bitcoin Summer Outlook: New ATH Coming Soon?

[dragonvslinux]

Bitcoin Summer Outlook
July 29th 2020

Updated view of TA from last month's TA that is curently playing out nicely. My other theoretical scenarios were further accumulation (long $33,368) that now appears invalidated, as well as the possibility of lower lows from the descending triangle breakdown (neutral). I'm expecting a short delay before shorts get liquidated and price moves fast towards new ATH. Old resistance has otherwise turned into new support with price above the accumulation zone, as well as all three moving averages (21,50,200) ☑

Price at TD 9 Sequential reversal on Daily chart with a bearish sloping 200 Day MA resistance level so expecting a small retracement.
Price above $37K volume level for now, where most of the volume as come from in past two months. Likely to act as new support.

Price held the $25-30K level as anticipated, the short and mid term MAs lie around $34K-35K, the resistance breakout level.

[dragonvslinux]

Reserved. Will be using this topic to study the Daily price moves. Specifically price either finding support from the 200 Day MA, or getting rejected etc and returning to support around $38-40K, as well as the validity of the extrapolation

[dragonvslinux]

Price hasn't quite had the moonshot based on the January 2021 fractal extrapolation, but still plenty of time left for this to occur this summer in my opinion.



At present volume remains too low for confirmation of a substantial breakout in either direction, with price struggling to move above the mid-level of logarithmic growth.

$36-40K remains strong volume support for the bulls, following a move above the accumulation / distribution zone of $30-40k.

[dragonvslinux]

Despite failing to break to the upside, the picture remains relevant. Price was again rejected from the mid-level of logarithmic growth, prior to the strong volume resistance around $56.5K. I was previously expecting a move to this VPVR point of control, but some fud unexpectedly hit the market prior to this it seems. A move to re-test $40K strong volume doesn't seem so unlikely, despite the low volume sell-off.



Price is otherwise at the 200 Day MA which is more of less flat, with the 50 Day MA sloping upwards in bullish fashion just below that has a golden cross trajectory if price can hold current levels. Other indicators (RSI, CMF) remain relatively neutral suggesting indecision in the market. While arguably sitting on a knife's, a break-down to $40K support (as well as 0.5 local fib) in the short-term wouldn't be a disaster for the bulls either.



Recent price actions looks like a healthy shakeout in summary. I assume there were some liquidations of long positions which is always a nice set up for further upside in the long-term.

[GreatArkansas]

Do you think Bitcoin will manage to get back on $50,000 within this month?
Because for me, we will see another bearish or sideways month if ever we monthly close below $40,000.  But as you said, the $37,000 - $40,000 level is too strong support Bitcoin, and let's hope it will act a major support until end of the month.

[adaseb]

Yeah looking at the above chart from back in middle of Aug, seems that the POV was around $56K. Meaning that most people entered at around that price. This is important because it means that those which are fearful are probably wanting to get out at break even from a near 50% loss.

I actually had a limit sell order to hedge some of my stack around $54-55K and unfortunately looks like I got front run by about $1-2k or so. Seems most of the other traders were also thinking the same and sold before those levels.

So if those levels clear, means we should hit new ATH sometime in Oct/Nov.

[buwaytress]

Yeah looking at the above chart from back in middle of Aug, seems that the POV was around $56K. Meaning that most people entered at around that price. This is important because it means that those which are fearful are probably wanting to get out at break even from a near 50% loss.

I actually had a limit sell order to hedge some of my stack around $54-55K and unfortunately looks like I got front run by about $1-2k or so. Seems most of the other traders were also thinking the same and sold before those levels.

So if those levels clear, means we should hit new ATH sometime in Oct/Nov.

Had a very modest sell order even at 53.5 k and just this week had to accept a spot at 47 as could not wait much longer. That was when 51 seemed to hold very well, so was slightly surprised the depth changed quickly and the slope proved so slippery thereafter.

Still. No harm done and Nov ATH suits well with the gentle but steady rise of 200MA.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

Do you think Bitcoin will manage to get back on $50,000 within this month?
Because for me, we will see another bearish or sideways month if ever we monthly close below $40,000.  But as you said, the $37,000 - $40,000 level is too strong support Bitcoin, and let's hope it will act a major support until end of the month.

I better have a lot of fiat no matter what happens because when the support really breaks by the end of month as you've said then it's better to be ready because a bearish episode will always be followed by a strong bullish episode and I don't want to miss out on profit.

[dragonvslinux]

Do you think Bitcoin will manage to get back on $50,000 within this month?

I remain 50-50 for whether $50K will be re-tested this month. Price now appears to be somewhat "trapped" between a newer volume-based distribution zone (circled red, $45-$50K) after recent price action around these levels as well as a relatively huge accumulation zone (circled green, $30-40K). "Filling in" the volume gap with some sideways trading ($40-45K) wouldn't be an unlikely scenario at this point.



While price struggles to find support today from the 200 Day MA, others basic indicators (RSI, CMF) remaining neutral or flat, that further confirms the indecision in the market. So too early to tell at this point. Price is more or less bang in the middle of local top around $60K and local lows of $30K, that of around $45K. Therefore it's basically in the middle of nowhere, so could go either direction.

Because for me, we will see another bearish or sideways month if ever we monthly close below $40,000.  But as you said, the $37,000 - $40,000 level is too strong support Bitcoin, and let's hope it will act a major support until end of the month.

Indeed closing the month (or even the week) below $40K would likely re-test the lower ranges of the accumulation zone towards the VPVR around $35K (that big bar of volume), followed by some panic selling into support given the number of traders concerned with a break below this key level of old resistance. Similar to how closing below the 200 Day MA could prove fatal in the short-term.

None the less, the 50 Week MA support line continues to rise while the 0.236 and 0.382 "pocket of support" from the local top to local bottom lines up nicely with both this mid-term MA as well as volume support. I'd be surprised if investors holding back from buying $30K lows or $40K break to the upside won't get greedy around these prices.



This despite the 50 Day & 200 Day MA's below very close to a golden cross. It currently looks like a sell signal within a possible bull trap, not a wise time to be shorting the price either:



Ideally price continues to correct towards $40K to make old resistance into new support, or trade sideways. I wouldn't want to see the distribution zone re-tested at present, as otherwise there could easily be more distribution above (roughly $47K-$48.5K) than accumulation below at the $38.5-$40.5K. This wouldn't be a good sign to me, similar to lowering the distribution zone from $56K down to $47.5K ish wasn't particularly healthy.

Yeah looking at the above chart from back in middle of Aug, seems that the POV was around $56K. Meaning that most people entered at around that price. This is important because it means that those which are fearful are probably wanting to get out at break even from a near 50% loss.

While somewhat true, this is based on the shorter-term picture: a volume profile of approximately 6 months. As shown above by the volume profile of approximately 9 months, the accumulation zone between $30-40K is substantially larger than the distribution zones of around $50K and $60K. A shorter-term VPVR is a good indicator for shorter-term price action, while the long-term VPVR is better for the longer-term picture.

I actually had a limit sell order to hedge some of my stack around $54-55K and unfortunately looks like I got front run by about $1-2k or so. Seems most of the other traders were also thinking the same and sold before those levels.

I had plans to hedge around similar levels and also got front run. This is part of the problem here, many who wanted to take some profits (even as a hedge) didn't get the opportunity. This is probably the reason why prices will slide down to $40K levels at this point, because if people missed out on $55K, many will accept $45K prices as still a "good exit" (even if not really), rather than wait patiently for a re-test to reduce risk.

Had a very modest sell order even at 53.5 k and just this week had to accept a spot at 47 as could not wait much longer. That was when 51 seemed to hold very well, so was slightly surprised the depth changed quickly and the slope proved so slippery thereafter.

Likely many I imagine. I was supposed to put a stop loss in for my trading account around $49.5K, but didn't get round to it nor anticipate the considerable dump either. The technicals didn't suggest a considerable sell-off after resistance was broken, but ultimately these things happen even if against the odds (they will happen 1 in every 4 or 5 times basically, in my my mind at least). Likely many, I also considered price would generally recover from $30K levels much sooner than expected. To me this just means price will be more parabolic when eventually new ATH is reached, so no real loss long-term.

[el kaka22]

Yeah looking at the above chart from back in middle of Aug, seems that the POV was around $56K. Meaning that most people entered at around that price. This is important because it means that those which are fearful are probably wanting to get out at break even from a near 50% loss.

I actually had a limit sell order to hedge some of my stack around $54-55K and unfortunately looks like I got front run by about $1-2k or so. Seems most of the other traders were also thinking the same and sold before those levels.

So if those levels clear, means we should hit new ATH sometime in Oct/Nov.

If the people who got in mostly at 56k ended up doing a little bit of DCA, they could have been in profit with the recent 50k+ increase. I mean you buy some at 56k, buy some at 38k, buy some at 33k and what do you know your average is 49k or something. So, that is why I believe many people who know how to invest ended up doing that, which also explains the reality of the drop recently, we went up and eventually we failed to keep rising every day, after a few days of staying like that, people wanted to sell and get rid of the bags they were holding.

This is simply just bitcoin, we probably had the same thing in other cryptos as well. So, we should not be really feeling like this is any shock to anyone. At the end of the day crypto prices go up in the long run, and all we have to do is wait for it to keep going up and eventually we will be better.

[buwaytress]

To me this just means price will be more parabolic when eventually new ATH is reached, so no real loss long-term.

Is it bad to say that I do hope some predictions surrounding the end of the parabola come true, at least for this "cycle" pending the next halving? Not that I'd not enjoy another x5 from current prices, I'd be as thrilled as the next guy. But since I'm unlikely to call it quits even then, I do see myself preferring a very, very, slow burn to 150k or thereabouts and then actually staying above 6 digits for most of the next few years.

All scenarios are equal in the long term though, but I feel more "security" in the latter.

[darkangelosme]

Bitcoin Summer Outlook
July 29th 2020

Updated view of TA from last month's TA that is curently playing out nicely. My other theoretical scenarios were further accumulation (long $33,368) that now appears invalidated, as well as the possibility of lower lows from the descending triangle breakdown (neutral). I'm expecting a short delay before shorts get liquidated and price moves fast towards new ATH. Old resistance has otherwise turned into new support with price above the accumulation zone, as well as all three moving averages (21,50,200) ☑️

Price at TD 9 Sequential reversal on Daily chart with a bearish sloping 200 Day MA resistance level so expecting a small retracement.
Price above $37K volume level for now, where most of the volume as come from in past two months. Likely to act as new support.

Price held the $25-30K level as anticipated, the short and mid term MAs lie around $34K-35K, the resistance breakout level.

Since i already loss to all of my trades I'll just wait for the big pump in the future, I'll just gonna follow the law of buy when low and sell when high, and hold if your coin is dumping and wait until it will recover, like what it is happening to me right now  .