Bearish Bitcoin TA - Be careful everyone ...

[WePiggy]

If history repeats itself we could see a drop down to the thirties again.

On-chain news is positive, but TA charts look grim ... Time to tether?

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[adaseb]

What is this? Elliot Waves? From most of the TA that I used in the past, Elliot Waves was the least reliable one. It looked good when trading in hindsight however you have no idea which wave you are currently in the present. You might react too early or too late and the trade won't work out.

I think BTC will trade sideways for most of Sept and in Oct/Nov I see it making a big move. It will either be up or down, I don't see it trading at near $50K for long. $50K is still a great price and if it doesn't move soon, alot of the people who bought in the $20-$30K area will take their 100% profits and sell and move on to something else.

[eth9888]

Yes. I was exactly thinking about this these few days.
TA looks bearish but onchain analysis looks bullish.
Wonder which one will play out.

[eth9888]

What is this? Elliot Waves? From most of the TA that I used in the past, Elliot Waves was the least reliable one. It looked good when trading in hindsight however you have no idea which wave you are currently in the present. You might react too early or too late and the trade won't work out.

I think BTC will trade sideways for most of Sept and in Oct/Nov I see it making a big move. It will either be up or down, I don't see it trading at near $50K for long. $50K is still a great price and if it doesn't move soon, alot of the people who bought in the $20-$30K area will take their 100% profits and sell and move on to something else.

No.,.. this is obviously NOT Eliiot Waves....
If you don't even know what Elliot Waves look like, I wonder how useful your opinion on Elliot Wave could be.

[electronicash]

have no idea what OP's chart is as it's not candles. the chart is very deceiving, zooming in and out only made me confuse which way the market will be going weeks.
you know it's tether time when the market goes down. if you see it coming, don't ask anymore just sell for tether.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Yes. I was exactly thinking about this these few days.
TA looks bearish but onchain analysis looks bullish.
Wonder which one will play out.

So it means we are somewhat in the middle? And it's obvious that by looking at the chart  So significant movement, volume is not that high, pattern is sideways.

So it's really hard with pattern will play out, which one gets invalidated by it. So I do agree that we should be careful or at least be for a look out of a break out run on neither side.

[Poker Player]

If history repeats itself we could see a drop down to the thirties again.

Blah, blah, blah. Technical analysis is about probabilities, not certainties, and it fails constantly. Yesterday or the day before yesterday I saw an analysis saying that as we cross the golden cross, we are going to start going up to $200K or thereabouts. I look at technical analysis for entertainment, but as a long term investor it doesn't affect me. I know that Bitcoin in 5 and 10 years is going to be much higher than it is now, so what it does in the next month doesn't matter to me.

[Tessnik]

This is just base on probability and this analysis is base on the previous market conditions, in my prediction Bitcoin will go in the opposite direction, we are not going to see any fallback soon but a rise in the price of Bitcoin before the end of 2021 we will see Bitcoin breaking a new all time high.

[traderethereum]

Thank you for reminding us to be careful in this situation, as we do not know for sure what will happen to bitcoin.
Yes, we could only be careful with anything, especially if the bitcoin price is down to use that time to buy more bitcoin.
But hopefully, the price will not go down too deep and only stay at above $40,000 or it will sideways for some time until the bull run is coming.
The chance for bitcoin to go up or down will be the same because we can make predictions about where bitcoin price will be and from the @OP image, the price can directly going down if the price can not get more support.
Yes, be careful will be the thing that we must concern.

[Dave1]

If history repeats itself we could see a drop down to the thirties again.

Blah, blah, blah. Technical analysis is about probabilities, not certainties, and it fails constantly. Yesterday or the day before yesterday I saw an analysis saying that as we cross the golden cross, we are going to start going up to $200K or thereabouts. I look at technical analysis for entertainment, but as a long term investor it doesn't affect me. I know that Bitcoin in 5 and 10 years is going to be much higher than it is now, so what it does in the next month doesn't matter to me.

In short, long term holders are not affected by this so called experts because, obviously, they just invest their money and look at it in 5-10 years. Others might have forgotten that they have invested after all.

I'm saying a good run today though, very weird, it's weekend, it's supposed to be slow day but the price goes to $48,500. Another indication that it's hard to call the market even at short term.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, as we are fellow plebs, I believe you are using the wrong chart. That’s a whale’s chart, the only chart mere plebs like us should use is the maximum zoomed out chart.



The chart is by William Clemente.

[rhomelmabini]

@OP I think that's a short term of history repeating itself. You could be wrong or right, this is a two-edge sword market but in my opinion, I'd rather focus on the long-term speculation and what could it play out. Technical analysis like daily as you provided was for traders but investors aren't gonna buy that they'll DCA and that's a fact and if it drops be thankful for an opportunity once again before it makes new ATH.

[justdimin]

In short, long term holders are not affected by this so called experts because, obviously, they just invest their money and look at it in 5-10 years. Others might have forgotten that they have invested after all.

I'm saying a good run today though, very weird, it's weekend, it's supposed to be slow day but the price goes to $48,500. Another indication that it's hard to call the market even at short term.

This is exactly me. I do not care if it is 50k tomorrow or 30k, for me they are the same thing. I know it matters in the long run as well because if it doesn't fall then in the long run we will reach to my levels a lot quicker and crypto staying strong for the next 10 years without a big drop would mean a lot more money for me after 10 years. However, let's be honest, there will be falls, there is no scenario where there are no falls and because of that I believe we can see some falls that will not bother me at all.

What is the point of having a hope for no falls at all if we know that it will eventually fall one day. It could be tomorrow, or some other time but we will see a fall one day and that is why it will not bother me because I am not investing for today or tomorrow, I am investing for 10-20 years down the line and that is why I will be fine.

[Oceat]

It's just a matter of time before the market turn to bearish trend but the price we have today is not going to make the market bearish. Maybe if some bad news suddenly appear that might start the market to decline slowly and correction follows then some weak-hands too. That's how the market in the past move but it might be different this time since people learned their mistakes already so we just have to wait and see what's going to happen. All of these people keep blabbing is hundred thousand dollars price before the end of the year. But I have a doubt that would going to happen within this year.

[samson]

Yes. I was exactly thinking about this these few days.
TA looks bearish but onchain analysis looks bullish.
Wonder which one will play out.

Given enough time...both

[samcrypto]

Yes. I was exactly thinking about this these few days.
TA looks bearish but onchain analysis looks bullish.
Wonder which one will play out.

Given enough time...both

There’s a lot of time to analyze Bitcoin, and yes the price are getting more into the sideways trend and if you have a good timeline every time you invest you can be more profitable.

If the bearish trend will happen, better to ready your cash money so you can buy more and if the price continues the bull and break all the resistance, that could be a sign that taking profit should happen soon. Time can tell, with Bitcoin I’m still bullish on it.

[hello_good_sir]

We have people who have spewed TA since the beginning with about the same accuracy at a coin flip.

Fact of the matter is that Technical Analysis is not good for long run forecasting and it certainly is not rigorous.

I personally think that we're going to consolidate around this level and not necessarily drop down much further given the institutional demand that we're seeing (MSTR for instance has been continuously buying up the stream of new coins minted).

[Hippocrypto]

This analysis give me a good thoughts that made me remember the worst mistakes of the past, but it was an amazing situation that gave me more strength to overcome same scenario to exist again.
But for the TA projected here, I guess this isn't the typical bearish trend which I saw at old times. History don't repeat itself, but there's always a similarity of pattern that's why we will have to be more smart and decisive whether we're going with the flow or not.

[STT]

History never repeats itself but it rhymes ~  Mark Twain

TA is a range of probabilities or scenarios that might occur, of course we cannot know future events for sure both natural and political but the assumption is a market with human participants contains recognizable traits that repeat in a pattern.
   The macro economy is a natural phenomena because its determined by people ultimately and people are natural in their actions despite our consciousnesses and ability to adapt in many ways.  The reasonable conclusion is 2021 chart patterns will resemble Dow theory 19th Century market moves because the fundamentals are similarly the same.   The FED and other entities dont acknowledge this natural pattern, price fixing is considered superior and imo the whole subject of economics in study has been eclipsed for decades by politics and nationalized spending with debt (not trade).
   My take is we ultimately revert to natural patterns not under the control of the FED, thats very bearish because its reality disrupting their multi decade day dream like the Greek debt crisis and can occur in any country with excessive debt vs exports as there is no natural reason to hold debt in exchange rather then alternatives and BTC is one of those alternatives in a speculative way.

Your chart OP doesnt have to resolve in a bearish way but I agree pullbacks are quite normal overall.  I'd say we are bullish right till market proves us otherwise, usually there is alot of notice given such as a slowing to price action and price moves below moving averages etc.    We're on the 2 day average and above almost all others, it would seem BTC is not near stall speed at present.

  My biggest or simple take is watch the weekly average for a mood to price

[palle11]

have no idea what OP's chart is as it's not candles. the chart is very deceiving, zooming in and out only made me confuse which way the market will be going weeks.
you know it's tether time when the market goes down. if you see it coming, don't ask anymore just sell for tether.

That chart looks like it is the Elliot wave partten with the ups and downs represented in numbers. Elliot is just like any other indicators represented in the chart and we are not to solely rely on on it without checking out in combination of other indicators. However, I don't think the price of bitcoin will go down to 30 before the year ending, the longtime hours are still strong for bull if combined with MA and the adoption rates.