US Infrastructure Bill 2021 and Bitcoin

[hatshepsut93]

Besides technically speaking a law that affects only 3% of the world (ie. US population) should not change anything about bitcoin's future. Granted some weakling countries such as parts of Europe could possibly follow if pressured, but you think people in El Salvador, Japan, Venezuela, Switzerland, Germany, Ukraine, Iran, most of Asia and ... give a shit what law US passed?

The US got light drugs like marijuana banned in the whole world just because they had a domestic campaign against them. If the US wanted, they could very easily convince dozens of countries to introduce anti-crypto bills tomorrow, it's a really no-brainer thing to do for most governments because in their eyes they would sacrifice nothing and win a favor from the US.

For now this Infrastructure Bill seems like a purely domestic thing, but if they will attack Bitcoin from anti-ransomware or anti-terrorism angle, they can easily turn it into a global chain of anti-Bitcoin legislation.

[pooya87]

The EU is much weaker than it may seem to someone,
Japan is more or less also under the influence of the US,
You have forgotten India as the second-most populous country in the world that fully supports the US,

That's true, but keep in mind that this is simply some restrictions and anti-privacy laws. We are not talking about a total ban. There is no reason why other countries should follow the same restrictions.

The only countries that openly oppose the US are North Korea and Iran, which are still avoiding the fate of Iraq and Afghanistan, but it is only a matter of time before they feel the power of Western democracy on their skin.

There is a huge difference between Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. It is off-topic here but if US was capable of doing anything similar to those countries to Iran they would have done it already specially since the previous administration had the will and the excuse when on 8 January 2020 Iran openly demolished 2 of the biggest US based in Iraq (in retaliation for the assassination of the Iranian general) killing at least a dozen including a general plus injuring hundreds of US soldiers and inflicting a damage estimated to be in billions.

The reality is that US military has not been as strong as advertised for decades, they are only capable of fighting (and eventually losing to) Afghan shepherds who have a walking stick and an AK-47 to shoot at their planes or the already disarmed Iraq with basically no military.
I'm biased of course but according to statements of US military officials for years such as the most recent one from centcom commander Gen. McKenzi US doesn't even have air superiority against Iran, and that's just air. On the ground or at Persian Golf US ground forces or the navy doesn't even have anything to say.

[stompix]

8 January 2020 Iran openly demolished 2 of the biggest US based in Iraq (in retaliation for the assassination of the Iranian general) killing at least a dozen including a general plus injuring hundreds of US soldiers and inflicting a damage estimated to be in trillions.

Bro, what the hell are you smoking? Trillions? Trillions as in 25 000 F-16?
The whole Iraq war is estimated at 2.4 trillions, the US military budget is 800 billion and you claim twenty ballistic missiles can destroy stuff with trillions? And who is that general?

I'm biased of course but according to statements of US military officials for years such as the most recent one from centcom commander Gen. McKenzi US doesn't even have air superiority against Iran, and that's just air. On the ground or at Persian Golf US ground forces or the navy doesn't even have anything to say.

Yeah right, Iran has air superiority with 100 jets out of which half of them are US-built Phantoms and F-14s, you can't even call this biased, I'm sure even Ali Khamenei would choke laughing after trying to say that.

Because I am handing you a 1oz bar of metal and you are handing me a stack of cash. There is no trace.

Sure, but neither metal nor cash have a publicly viewable blockchain or multi-million dollar contracts from the US government to various companies to link individuals to specific pieces of metal. If you use centralized exchanges, then you won't really have an option but to start doing this since the government will already know all your addresses. I'm sure some people will try to avoid it as they do for other >$10,000 trades as you point out, but there will be a lot more government investigation of bitcoin trades than there will be of other cash trades.

And most important, people don't deal in bars or ingots of metals because they are a pain in the ass to do so, and the government would not be interested in two or three guys and an industry worth a few hundred thousand. Despite being blamed for everything from KYC to freezing accounts and stealing coins and manipulation centralized exchanges have also allowed millions to get their coins easily, once people need to make one extra step to get their coins in a stealthy way or pay extra a lot of them will simply give up once(if) the law gets passed in such a restrictive way and from there, things have only downhill to go.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Inevitably taxes would need to be hiked to cover the enormous cost of these bills. Governments could be incentivized to find new revenue streams to balance the budget. Legalizing marijuana and cryptocurrency could be natural markets to nurture and protect in order to grow tax revenues. It all depends on state priorities.

This bill spends $3.5 trillion. The new cryptocurrency provisions will raise, at most, $28 billion (while decimating the industry in the US). These provisions aren't about funding the bill, which will inevitably be funded by money printer going brrrrr, but rather about controlling bitcoin and spying on individuals.

The reality is that US military has not been as strong as advertised for decades, they are only capable of fighting (and eventually losing to) Afghan shepherds who have a walking stick and an AK-47 to shoot at their planes or the already disarmed Iraq with basically no military.

The only reason these cryptocurrency provisions are still in this bill is because one Senator - Richard Shelby - continually blocked amendments to fix the bill unless everyone agree to another $50 billion for the military. I mean, we only spend $800 billion a year on the military already. I'm sure that extra $50 billion will make all the difference to Afghanistan, and definitely won't just line the pockets of the companies which pay for his campaigns.

centralized exchanges have also allowed millions to get their coins easily, once people need to make one extra step to get their coins in a stealthy way or pay extra a lot of them will simply give up once(if) the law gets passed in such a restrictive way and from there, things have only downhill to go.

Yeah, agreed. I don't use centralized exchanges ever, and so a lot of these new rules and regulations won't make any difference to me whatsoever, but I'll still fight against them because they'll harm the wider bitcoin ecosystem significantly.

[ven7net]

What will be the impact of US Infrastructure Bill 2021 on bitcoin ? Many people are saying that bitcoin will dump on this event but i fell otherwise. When everyone is anticipating a dump, we may see opposite. Also bitcoin is moving in falling wedge pattern and a pump is more likely to happen.

You're right! The situation with BTC can go, as always, not where everyone expects, so there is always the possibility of both price increases and their decline. As for the United States, you must understand that inside this country right now there is a struggle between the power of bankers and the power of digital people. There is a high probability that the latter will win this confrontation and when this happens, the price of BTC will fly to the moon. Therefore, the laws that are now being adopted in the United States can also easily be canceled when other forces come to power. Nevertheless, I believe that it is necessary to monitor more the situation in the crypto market itself, and not on the applicable laws.

[Lucius]

The EU is much weaker than it may seem to someone,
Japan is more or less also under the influence of the US,
You have forgotten India as the second-most populous country in the world that fully supports the US,

That's true, but keep in mind that this is simply some restrictions and anti-privacy laws. We are not talking about a total ban. There is no reason why other countries should follow the same restrictions.

I may be wrong, but it seems to me that what the US is trying to do is not the final solution, but only the first step towards putting cryptocurrencies in a very tight regulatory framework where they will be able to fully control them. Of course, at the moment we can't talk about a complete ban the way China did, but when it comes to protecting national interests, the US and China are not as different as they seem at first glance.

In terms of influence over other countries, the US has very strong mechanisms to literally force others to support their interests - so as we consider the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as a prime example of friendly persuasion, Denmark lost 43 troops, Poland 40, Spain 34 and so on, more than 1100 soldiers were killed for nothing, just because the US wanted to play war.

Therefore, I think that the US will influence other countries in terms of cryptocurrencies, and that the majority will choose cooperation instead of opposing - in addition, the EU has already announced something similar that should take effect 2024/25.

[pooya87]

Bro, what the hell are you smoking? Trillions?

LOL. Sorry that was a mistake (it was billions). Fixed it.

And who is that general?

I don't know his name, he was the ranking official who were in the command and communication center of Al Asad base, ie. the first target that was hit. If I recall correctly the news covered it up by saying he died of a "heart attack in US" in a day or so after the attack, whereas he was deployed in Iraq.

Yeah right, Iran has air superiority with 100 jets out of which half of them are US-built Phantoms and F-14s,

Well, manned planes became obsolete years ago. The new wars are fought using drones with the pilot sitting far away in safety capable of controlling faster and more effective planes that are a lot cheaper to mass produce.
Iran's UAV (and generally drones that include unmanned submarines) program is not only advanced but it has a lot of diversity. The strategy is also to overwhelm with lowest cost but highest efficiency which has proven to be the most effective for defense. All domestically built.
Air superiority is also not just about what kind of expensive planes you have (specifically for attacker not the defender) but about how effective those attacking planes are against air defense systems. For example USAF tested¹ this on different occasions in 2019 by invading Iran's airspace at least 3 times (cases that are publicly known, I'm sure there were more); one was with F35 and the other two used stealth drones, F35 ($78 million) was quickly detected, locked on and warned; 1 drone shot down ($220 million) and the accompanying plane ($3.6 billion with a crew of 35) was warned, and another drone hacked and captured (IIRC it was a "cheap" $100 mil drone). The cost for Iran was ~$50k.

1. They have to test it because Iran doesn't buy anything from anywhere, everything is researched and developed domestically. So nobody knows the true capabilities and what hasn't been shown yet. At the same time this is one of the reasons why Iran has been able to advance so much and also why these defense systems don't suck...

[stompix]

one was with F35 and the other two used stealth drones, F35 ($78 million) was quickly detected, locked on and warned; 1 drone shot down ($220 million) and the accompanying plane ($3.6 billion with a crew of 35) was warned, and another drone hacked and captured (IIRC it was a "cheap" $100 mil drone). The cost for Iran was ~$50k.

Bro, seriously get those numbers right!  
You just made a drone more expensive than an F35 and a plane to cost 4 times more than a B2.
The most advanced drone the US has is the RQ170 and that goes below 10 million.

Besides those are war scenarios, the US will not send 3 fighters and a drone, it will send 1000 tomahawks missiles that will turn anything that sends a signal into a pile of scrap, just how they've launched the Iraq invasion. I remember well those times, they will fail, us army sucks, same thing when they bombarded Serbia, Serbia is the new Vietnam, the Serbs are fearless etc we both know the outcome of those two.

That said the entire bombing of 90 days caused 20 billion in damage and that so-called attack Iran made caused 10% of this?  
I'm telling you even the propaganda chiefs in Teheran would smile seeing these numbers.

1. They have to test it because Iran doesn't buy anything from anywhere, everything is researched and developed domestically. So nobody knows the true capabilities and what hasn't been shown yet.

Well, the guys on flight 752 have learned the "true" capabilities of Iranian weapons and radars.

But seriously now, we have arrived at the point where the growth from the Western countries will be replaced by Iran, Venezuela and Toga?
You see people who have put an extra tax on both license and power on bitcoin mining, who are confiscated mining gear, who are jailing people for their beliefs as the fuel needed for growth? Iran that has a GDP below Virginia will sustain this growth?

Instead of Microstrategy and Grayscale, we will have Mostazafan Foundation?

And it's not even a case of others following the US. China is way ahead of this, India is also pretty far away, do you think there are that many countries that even matter on a global scale that are more crypto-friendly than the US? Even Europe has cases with worse taxation than the US, what do you think a socialist party that has just grabbed power in Germany will do if they see this, let's not tax the shit out of it, let's just stick to seizing houses in Berlin!?!

[pooya87]

You just made a drone more expensive than an F35 and a plane to cost 4 times more than a B2.
The most advanced drone the US has is the RQ170 and that goes below 10 million.

Well I'm not an expert I just google these things and it tells me that RQ-4A Global Hawk costs approximately $220 million and a Boeing P-8 Poseidon cost with all the equipment onboard is estimated at $3.6 billion. It is possible I made another mistake reading the numbers but they are indeed most expensive than the useless F35. I already told you manned planes are obsolete.
Why did you think US military budget is so big? The tax payers money is wasted on these toys

BTW RQ170 is very old and the case of hacking and safely capturing it is also 11 years old.

Besides those are war scenarios, the US will not send 3 fighters and a drone, it will send 1000 tomahawks missiles that will turn anything that sends a signal into a pile of scrap,

That's true. War is a complicated thing and I don't claim to be an expert. Although it feels like you are getting a little emotional here.

just how they've launched the Iraq invasion.

Correction: they launched invasion of already disarmed Iraq.

That said the entire bombing of 90 days caused 20 billion in damage and that so-called attack Iran made caused 10% of this?

Well that was 90 days of (inaccurate) bombing of cities killing a lot of civilians and this was only 13 precise missiles hitting designated targets to maximize damage. Seems like you are comparing apples and oranges here.

But seriously now, we have arrived at the point where the growth from the Western countries will be replaced by Iran, Venezuela and Toga?

No, and I didn't say that. I just pointed out the migration of miners from a country that started cracking down on miners (China) to other places and I used Iran as example because I know that for a fact while I have no solid data about other regions.

[stompix]

Well I'm not an expert I just google these things and it tells me that RQ-4A Global Hawk costs approximately $220 million and a Boeing P-8 Poseidon cost with all the equipment onboard is estimated at $3.6 billion.

Again...bro..wtf

Including support facilities, the first group of eight aircraft's total cost is estimated at $3.6 billion (AU$4 billion)

The U.S. Navy has awarded Boeing a $1.5 billion production contract for the next 18 P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, buoying the company’s defense business.

Well that was 90 days of (inaccurate) bombing of cities killing a lot of civilians and this was only 13 precise missiles hitting designated targets to maximize damage. Seems like you are comparing apples and oranges here.

Of course, 3 civilian airports, 2 military airports, one television headquarters, 4 bridges over the Danube, other 30 bridges and railway networks, 4 electric powerplants,  20 000 homes, 40 hospitals, and one Chinese embassy are of course not worth as much 2 hangars and a helicopter.
More than apples and oranges this is a thing of grains of sand and the sun.

But seriously now, we have arrived at the point where the growth from the Western countries will be replaced by Iran, Venezuela and Toga?

No, and I didn't say that. I just pointed out the migration of miners from a country that started cracking down on miners (China) to other places and I used Iran as example because I know that for a fact while I have no solid data about other regions.

A really bad example:
https://cryptonews.net/en/news/mining/1654451/

In April the Energy Ministry revised regulations for cryptomining as per which 16,574 rials ($0.39)  is charged for one kilowatt-hour.
~
According to Tavanir, more than 212,373 mining equipment was seized in the past 12 months. The equipment reportedly caused 180 trillion rials in damage to the utility and power distribution equipment.

Us miners have orders for 60 Exa of gear, where do you think and who do you think will be able to power them at 3 cents per kwh?
Not Iran, not Venezuela, and not any country in Europe. Again, like it or not but without the US we're f***!

[pooya87]

Including support facilities, the first group of eight aircraft's total cost is estimated at $3.6 billion (AU$4 billion)

Still $450 million is a lot bigger than $78 million.

In April the Energy Ministry revised regulations for cryptomining as per which 16,574 rials ($0.39)  is charged for one kilowatt-hour.
~
According to Tavanir, more than 212,373 mining equipment was seized in the past 12 months. The equipment reportedly caused 180 trillion rials in damage to the utility and power distribution equipment.

16,574 rials is roughly $0.06 not $0.39
As for the seized miners, all those miners were stealing electricity to mine bitcoin. So I'm confused why you even brought this up here, I don't know anywhere in the world that robbery is legal!

[stompix]

16,574 rials is roughly $0.06 not $0.39

It's 0.3943809, trust me.
https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=16574&From=IRR&To=USD

As for the seized miners, all those miners were stealing electricity to mine bitcoin. So I'm confused why you even brought this up here, I don't know anywhere in the world that robbery is legal!

No, it's not robbery as you put it.

In Iran, you have to get a special mining permit from the government, only 30 such have been given, if you're not doing that and you don't pay your extra tax and licenses you can't mine. So these guys were not stealing, we're just using electricity at their own rates. So if you plugged an S9 in your house and mine, is it robbery in your country? I guess not. And I mentioned this exactly to show you how the world outside the US looks like, if you think any kind of growth will come from places like this you're deeply mistaken. Now, will these countries be open to a free market and free commerce to even make large companies think of moving there? No!

Of course, there is only one way to definitely prove to you that the US has enormous power when it comes to Bitcoin, but I would rather admit being wrong than seeing it happen.

[noormcs5]

What will be the impact of US Infrastructure Bill 2021 on bitcoin ? Many people are saying that bitcoin will dump on this event but i fell otherwise. When everyone is anticipating a dump, we may see opposite. Also bitcoin is moving in falling wedge pattern and a pump is more likely to happen.

This US Infrastructure Bill was to be presented at 27 September , so what was the proposed bill ?  I think there is no bad thing decided about crypto therefore the market is stable and did not fall. I would like to know what they talked about crypto in particular in that bill.

[flip4flop]

After reading it and the over 2000 pages of BS that it contained there are quite a few worrisome issues that are created with the term brokers and how loosely they are defined. The only saving grace is there will likely be clarifying guidance as to who is considered brokers but only after the bill is passed. This still leaves quite a bit of unknowns and is worrisome for pool operators or large-scale miners. However, for the small guys, it shouldn't be that bad as you will still need to process over $10,000 in transactions to be considered a "broker" the way it's currently written.

[_Miracle]

Contact your state rep and ask them to consider this amendment with the bill


AUGUST 04, 2021
https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/toomey-wyden-lummis-amendment-would-clarify-digital-asset-reporting-requirements

"Toomey, Wyden, Lummis Amendment Would Clarify Digital Asset Reporting Requirements
Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senate Banking Committee Ranking Member Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), and Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) today filed an amendment clarifying the definition of “broker” with respect to digital asset third-party reporting requirements.

The senators’ amendment would clarify that “brokers” mean only those persons who conduct transactions on exchanges where consumers buy, sell and trade digital assets, and does not require information reporting from persons who engage in mining or staking, selling hardware or software that an individual may use to control a private key, or developing digital assets or their corresponding protocols for use by other persons if such other persons are not customers."

[pooya87]

It's 0.3943809, trust me.
https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=16574&From=IRR&To=USD

Just because a website says $0.39 it doesn't make it right.
1 USD is 270,000 IRR not 42,000 IRR. You see dollar has multiple prices in Iran. The later is a special exchange rate that the government is giving to those who want to import certain goods such as medicine, food, etc in order to keep the price of these things down. The former is the actual rate at which USD is exchanged in open market that affects everything else including the electricity price.

In Iran, you have to get a special mining permit from the government, only 30 such have been given,

That is for mining farms not for individual miners at home even though they have been trying to tax those too. There are also more than 30 issued already.

So these guys were not stealing, we're just using electricity at their own rates.

Yes they were stealing.
In some cases they were literary stealing electricity by bypassing the electric meter and creating a direct connection to the main wire and weren't paying a single penny.
In other cases they were using the electricity rate given to them for another industry to mine bitcoin. You see similar to dollar exchange rates I mentioned above there are also certain other "government aids" to different industries. One of these aids is favorable electricity rate. But that rate is only given to be used for that pre-defined purpose and if it is used for anything else (including but not limited to mining bitcoin) it is against the law since it is breaking the contract.

So if you plugged an S9 in your house and mine, is it robbery in your country?

No it is not illegal to do it in Iran and many are already doing it. However, the cases I explained above are robbery.

And I mentioned this exactly to show you how the world outside the US looks like, if you think any kind of growth will come from places like this you're deeply mistaken. Now, will these countries be open to a free market and free commerce to even make large companies think of moving there? No!

You are putting words in my mouth. I never said large companies are going to move there I just pointed out that a lot of hashrate has been going there, the large companies will move elsewhere.
FYI based on the recent shipment of ASICs and the previous information the hashrate is reaching 10%, so yeah this kind of growth is already happening.

[stompix]

You are putting words in my mouth. I never said large companies are going to move there I just pointed out that a lot of hashrate has been going there, the large companies will move elsewhere.

Yeah?

Big companies each with billions of dollars of revenue could easily migrate to those countries and bring with them a lot of money and jobs.

That is for mining farms not for individual miners at home even though they have been trying to tax those too. There are also more than 30 issued already.

Again, wrong!
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/460951/Cryptocurrency-mining-using-household-electricity-to-face-heavy

TEHRAN- Iranian Energy Ministry’s spokesman for the electricity sector said that those cryptocurrency miners, who use household electricity, will have to pay a heavy fine if identified.

FYI based on the recent shipment of ASICs and the previous information the hashrate is reaching 10%, so yeah this kind of growth is already happening.

The difficulty is at 19T 5% below October (the end of the rainy season in China) numbers when the price was at 10k, so rather than the growth it is not even catching up, and you don't need the FYI, I'm a miner so I'm pretty up to date with mining-related stuff

Nevertheless, I can't understand how you can lash out at the US who has been fueling all this growth just because they would possibly require licenses while at the same time clapping your hand in admiration for regimes like Iran in Venezuela who have taken far stricter stances at crypto.
I don't know what the US has done to you but a small one-month stay in all those countries you've counted there would clarify a lot of things.
Don't forget to not pack you jeans if you go to Iran, the country of freedom and the next Bitcoinia!

[pooya87]

Big companies each with billions of dollars of revenue could easily migrate to those countries and bring with them a lot of money and jobs.

"Those" is plural and I already mentioned a bunch of countries with a "..." at the end but you keep focusing on one!
Besides, although companies moving their HQ outside of US due to regulations is not a common thing but it has happened many times in the history. If you stop focusing on the destination you'll see that what I said is true.

Again, wrong!

Again, not everything you read on the internet is the whole truth. If you like to know the situation send me a PM.

The difficulty is at 19T 5% below October (the end of the rainy season in China) numbers when the price was at 10k, so rather than the growth it is not even catching up, and you don't need the FYI, I'm a miner so I'm pretty up to date with mining-related stuff

The hashrate has been growing for a while, also part of the growth is because of "migration" of miners which means the total hashrate doesn't change.

I don't know what the US has done to you but a small one-month stay in all those countries you've counted there would clarify a lot of things.

Well in my 30 years and experiencing different countries first hand or second hand, I have learned that the sky is the same shade of grey everywhere. It's naive to think otherwise.

[_Miracle]

this volume illustrates the need for members of the Bitcoin community to continue engaging with policymakers
As Bitcoin adoption continues to grow at an exponential rate, more situations will arise that require the Bitcoin community to speak up.


engage with policymakers

Agreeing with the above 100%
Adding: connect with policy makers who are at least attempting to be cryptocurrency/tech literate.

[Gyfts]

Besides technically speaking a law that affects only 3% of the world (ie. US population) should not change anything about bitcoin's future. Granted some weakling countries such as parts of Europe could possibly follow if pressured, but you think people in El Salvador, Japan, Venezuela, Switzerland, Germany, Ukraine, Iran, most of Asia and ... give a shit what law US passed?

The US got light drugs like marijuana banned in the whole world just because they had a domestic campaign against them. If the US wanted, they could very easily convince dozens of countries to introduce anti-crypto bills tomorrow, it's a really no-brainer thing to do for most governments because in their eyes they would sacrifice nothing and win a favor from the US.

For now this Infrastructure Bill seems like a purely domestic thing, but if they will attack Bitcoin from anti-ransomware or anti-terrorism angle, they can easily turn it into a global chain of anti-Bitcoin legislation.

US banning Bitcoin outright would send the entire crypto industry into turmoil and would permanently disrupt the market. They wouldn't need to coordinate with any other country, they would follow along like dominos before coercion is necessary. Some smaller APAC and SA countries that maintain autonomy over their own economy and aren't beholden to the US would be okay, but how much do they really contribute to the world economy? Not much.