Taiwan invasion - how would it affect bitcoin

[paxmao]

More than a rumour, this is becoming a Heavy Metal live streaming at 4 a.m. China is building up their military to the point in which they could actually enact their desire of taking effectively over the government of Taiwan. As most of you know, as of now, Taiwan is considered a "rebel territory" by China, "that is part of China". Taiwan is also part of the strategy of the US and its allies in the Northern Pacific (Japan, South Korea). Taiwan is nothing less than a territory in dispute between China and US (not exactly, as the US does not argue that is US territory).

So, nothing to worry about, just another quarrel between the superpower and the possibly next superpower. But there is a little factor that makes Taiwan a very interesting place, and that is called TSMC  AKA Taiwan Semiconductors. This company (along with Samsung) manufacture most of the semiconductors worldwide and they have technologies that are even a decade ahead of competitors.

What do you think could happen if a proxy war for Taiwan takes place in the next years? As a hint, today a few car manufacturing plants have reduced production due to lack of semiconductors. Many other industries are also affected. Imagine that TSMC is unable to continue production or that factories are destroyed in the process. This would mean a global slowdown and a crisis that may dwarf COVID.

BTW, a semiconductor plant is nothing you can improvise. The investment is huge, the technical difficulties extreme and building times quite long.

My advice, if you hear winds of war, buy. You know what.

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[Darker45]

I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon. Although it is true that China could easily take Taiwan by force if they intend to do it, China is also very much aware how it won't happen without fighting against allied forces as well. And that wouldn't be easy for them. That is a war that wouldn't be worth it. Not only would China fail, they will be humiliated.

As to its potential effect to Bitcoin, I guess there won't be much unless it will become a full-blown war, which I don't think will happen. The China-Taiwan tension has been around for some time. The tension rises and falls but it never escalated into a war.

[enhu]

I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon. Although it is true that China could easily take Taiwan by force if they intend to do it, China is also very much aware how it won't happen without fighting against allied forces as well. And that wouldn't be easy for them. That is a war that wouldn't be worth it. Not only would China fail, they will be humiliated.

As to its potential effect to Bitcoin, I guess there won't be much unless it will become a full-blown war, which I don't think will happen. The China-Taiwan tension has been around for some time. The tension rises and falls but it never escalated into a war.

It may not go into war since the US told the news that they are not looking to make war but only to assist Taiwan not to be invaded.

But China has become aggressive in response to the fleet surrounding Taiwan which includes US and EU ships. They flew over Taiwan's airspace with more than 50 fighter jets recently, they reasoned it's an exercise for their independence which dates back to 1 October.

These countries are just finding ways to see how each would react and who will first shoot. American submarine also bumped into something under South China Sea, the report is just not very clear but they were talking about drones underwater or something.

[crwth]

I think this will affect Bitcoin negatively (in the short term), and the reasons that I thought of are

1. The need for semiconductors is never-ending, thus affecting the market if they were to halt operations
This tendency is that many people would have to liquidate their assets to purchase the stuff they want or need that involves possibly semiconductor devices. Probably in Taiwan market would be most affected.

2. People affected will find other ways to earn, and it can be with cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin in general.
- This could affect the price negatively if they need to liquidate money fast.

It's important to note that the world will be okay since they are not one of the top exporters in the world, but it can still affect the lives there. I'm looking forward to what cryptocurrency can do more for us in the distant future, as it is essential and valuable to everyone. I do hope that a lot of people would even use it and share it with their peers.

[avikz]

I think in case of a war, the price of bitcoin will be positively impacted. We have seen similar things happening during the Hong Kong protest where people had purchased bitcoin in bulk when Chinese government imposed a banking ban on the protesters. I think, we will see a reparation of this trend in case China enters into a war with Taiwan.

Make no mistake, this could very well become a world war because US is looking for opportunities to challenge China since a long time. Japan and Australia are their allies in the war against China and India could also join hands there. If this happens, it could increase the demand of bitcoin temporary thus pushing its price up.

[Charles-Tim]

I think in case of a war, the price of bitcoin will be positively impacted.

I think so too, citizens of a country where there is war are always afraid of banks and buy bitcoin, maybe because they think the war can result to banks shot down or because they think they will not be able to access their fiat for long time because of bank shot down during the period. I have seen war cases that bitcoin price went premium in such country, so the price of bitcoin will increase in my opinion.

Make no mistake, this could very well become a world war because US is looking for opportunities to challenge China since a long time.

I doubt this will happen, this kind of situation that has been existing for long that has never resulted to war is not worth it to result to war. Countries are even afraid of third world war because the second world war is not a easy one at all while many people lost their lives, how will the third one be with more advanced sophisticated weapons that can destroy millions of lives in a single moment.

[davis196]

China is calling for a peaceful unification with Taiwan,but Taiwan would never unite with China.
I also don't think that China is ever going to start a war with the USA just for the sake of conquering Taiwan.
There's too much risk and too little benefit of starting such war.
Of course the Chinese will keep "waving the big stick" at Taiwan,while trying to achieve other goals in their diplomacy.We don't know how the USA will react to a Chinese invasion in Taiwan.
I think that any insecurity and concerns anywhere around the world are positive for the Bitcoin price.
Financial assets like Bitcoin usually increase their value a lot in times of uncertainty.
2020 and 2021 are the years of the pandemic and the lockdowns,and the Bitcoin price increased from 10K to almost 60K USD in that time frame.

[pickforbies]

I think this will affect Bitcoin negatively (in the short term), and the reasons that I thought of are

1. The need for semiconductors is never-ending, thus affecting the market if they were to halt operations
This tendency is that many people would have to liquidate their assets to purchase the stuff they want or need that involves possibly semiconductor devices. Probably in Taiwan market would be most affected.

2. People affected will find other ways to earn, and it can be with cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin in general.
- This could affect the price negatively if they need to liquidate money fast.

It's important to note that the world will be okay since they are not one of the top exporters in the world, but it can still affect the lives there. I'm looking forward to what cryptocurrency can do more for us in the distant future, as it is essential and valuable to everyone. I do hope that a lot of people would even use it and share it with their peers.

Agree, I'm on side of people who think more affected tragically for Bitcoin. As a biggest semiconductor production, Taiwan has a gain power and be brave to challenge china. They hold a trigger point there.
UPDATE: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-xi-says-reunification-with-taiwan-must-will-be-realised-2021-10-09/

[Lucius]

China is building up their military to the point in which they could actually enact their desire of taking effectively over the government of Taiwan.

Do you think China couldn’t have conquered Taiwan 5, 10, or 20 years ago if they really wanted to? Of course, technology is advancing (in this case, the military), but I don't see what China needs to achieve in military terms to occupy a relatively small island that is only 130 km off the west coast of China. I would love to see the US and their allies in case that happens, because I don’t think they would dare attack one such military force that possesses atomic weapons, and has a numerical strength of over 4 million troops (total with reserve and paramilitary).

What do you think could happen if a proxy war for Taiwan takes place in the next years? As a hint, today a few car manufacturing plants have reduced production due to lack of semiconductors. Many other industries are also affected. Imagine that TSMC is unable to continue production or that factories are destroyed in the process. This would mean a global slowdown and a crisis that may dwarf COVID.

Maybe we will walk more or ride bicycles, which would not be so bad for our health and the health of the planet. And maybe the US and allies are building some secret plant to produce semiconductors, because I don’t believe they would throw all the cards at Taiwan in case China wanted to conquer it one day.

My advice, if you hear winds of war, buy. You know what.

The winds of war are always in the air, just not the kind that people often talk about. In the event of a war of global powers, I do not believe that Bitcoin can remain intact and stable, because war raises the value of some other things.

[Vaskiy]

China is calling for a peaceful unification with Taiwan,but Taiwan would never unite with China.
I also don't think that China is ever going to start a war with the USA just for the sake of conquering Taiwan.
There's too much risk and too little benefit of starting such war.
Of course the Chinese will keep "waving the big stick" at Taiwan,while trying to achieve other goals in their diplomacy.We don't know how the USA will react to a Chinese invasion in Taiwan.
I think that any insecurity and concerns anywhere around the world are positive for the Bitcoin price.
Financial assets like Bitcoin usually increase their value a lot in times of uncertainty.
2020 and 2021 are the years of the pandemic and the lockdowns,and the Bitcoin price increased from 10K to almost 60K USD in that time frame.

It doesn't look like peaceful unification call. Xi Jinping had said "The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled, and will definitely be fulfilled" and this statement doesn't look like a peaceful approach. China somehow want Taiwan get unified with them. There is very low chance of war, but countries that are standing against china will keep on saying USA will support Taiwan save its sovereignty.

This issues weren't gonna make any big impact over the bitcoin market for many reasons. Everyone predicting the market connecting it to the war

[beerlover]

There are two different parts of this discussion. First of all, is this company doing something that is impossible to do? I mean if the whole worry was over some factory, that is because others do not find it either profitable or just care about it, believe me if there was enough money to be made from this then I can see super rich people investing into a factory, in fact series of factories all over the world and get those chips made instantly, 100x the amount produced yearly.

Some people may say it is because that Taiwanese company is good and that is why there isn't that many, but rich people are rich for a reason and they can pay 1000x more than what those people are getting and hire their engineers and built bunch of factories and raise their own good engineers there. However the annexation part? That is just China becoming more of a danger to the world, I do not like to talk about that part because people assume bad things when I raise concern about it.

[Hydrogen]

Taiwan carries considerable strategic and economic value being the world's largest manufacturer and supplier of semiconductors.

If I'm remembering right, the cost to construct a semiconductor foundry ranges around $20 billion. Which could put it outside the budget of even billionaires like Elon Musk who looked into acquiring their own semiconductor foundry ever since supply chain issues manifested in 2020.

If china invades taiwan using military force, taiwan's semiconductor foundries could be damaged or destroyed. There is a chance taiwan could choose to destroy their semiconductor plants, rather than have china capture them intact. That could be one reason behind china's hesitation. There is also a domino effect. If neighboring nations see china invading taiwan, they could take steps to harden their defenses against being treated in a similar manner. And so its normal to take time to weigh the pros versus cons and try to come up with a way to invade taiwan that guarantees their semiconductor industry can be captured completely intact.

If taiwans semiconductor industry is damaged. There is a chance that remaining semiconductor producers could be repurposed to producing higher priority chips. Worst case scenario: ASICs and GPUs are deemed "low priority" or "non essential" while chips for other industries are deemed the opposite. ASIC and GPU production could take a hit. Even if those industries are not directly being targeted.

[btc_angela]

I think in case of a war, the price of bitcoin will be positively impacted. We have seen similar things happening during the Hong Kong protest where people had purchased bitcoin in bulk when Chinese government imposed a banking ban on the protesters. I think, we will see a reparation of this trend in case China enters into a war with Taiwan.

I think it's different scenario though, as stated by OP, if a war broke out, then not only bitcoin but the whole financial market will be affected negatively.

Make no mistake, this could very well become a world war because US is looking for opportunities to challenge China since a long time. Japan and Australia are their allies in the war against China and India could also join hands there. If this happens, it could increase the demand of bitcoin temporary thus pushing its price up.

So make no mistake as well, China is not that dumb to go full war on it's province of Taiwan, they would sit down and talk about it with their counterparts. This are all Chinese, it's not that they are going to invade a new territory. Maybe in that case it will really case a world war, you can consider this as a internal conflict.

[enhu]

I think in case of a war, the price of bitcoin will be positively impacted. We have seen similar things happening during the Hong Kong protest where people had purchased bitcoin in bulk when Chinese government imposed a banking ban on the protesters. I think, we will see a reparation of this trend in case China enters into a war with Taiwan.

I think it's different scenario though, as stated by OP, if a war broke out, then not only bitcoin but the whole financial market will be affected negatively.

Make no mistake, this could very well become a world war because US is looking for opportunities to challenge China since a long time. Japan and Australia are their allies in the war against China and India could also join hands there. If this happens, it could increase the demand of bitcoin temporary thus pushing its price up.

So make no mistake as well, China is not that dumb to go full war on it's province of Taiwan, they would sit down and talk about it with their counterparts. This are all Chinese, it's not that they are going to invade a new territory. Maybe in that case it will really case a world war, you can consider this as a internal conflict.

There was an article mocking Taiwan might suffer the same fate as Afghanistan if they engage in war. War is possible because Taiwan couldn't stay neutral since China is up to reunite just as how they did with Hongkong.

China might not go to war literally but will only take it to economic war just as Trump started. It's a slow war which affected almost all countries since we see China as a source of the products we have in our stores. It's happening we will not see electronic devices but also agricultural products are not delivered from China which containervans are piling up the ports. None of these countries wants business to stop. China's option is just to negotiate with Taiwan, the province is just a stone throw away. These two are very secretive however so everyone around may not be involved.

[Sithara007]

Do you guys really think that China would actually invade Taiwan? Despite it's huge population and monetary surplus, in terms of military strength China is far behind other countries like US and Russia. In fact they are even behind their own neighbors like Japan. Taiwan invasion will be like Waterloo for the PLA, as the Taiwanese armed forces will be fighting for their very survival. Even if the Americans don't directly support the Taiwanese, PLA is likely to suffer huge losses (in terms of manpower, equipment and funds).

[so98nn]

This is well structured study considering the Taiwan and its famous company TSMC. It was amazing to see how they have overcome the difficulties being inside Taiwan, territory under dispute and stressful political pressures all the time. I think the best case scenario is way simple here. If any of the country tries to invade into Taiwan then they will simply have to give proper direction to the TSMC by means of new taxation system, regulatory views and possibly the “price control” acts will be prime importance.

So the effect on bitcoin would entirely depend on one thing: Who rules Taiwan, whether they will bring down the existing companies and reform them and whether they will come under entire new law.

[Kakmakr]

In a time of war, things change very quickly. In WWI / WWII most ordinary factories changed their manufacturing to supply goods and equipment that were needed for the war efforts.

We know Silicon Valley in the US has the capability to manufacture and develop semiconductors and electronic chips... so they will just have to step up their operations and expand their capacity to replace the loss of the manufacturing abilities in Taiwan, if that happens.

[btc78]

It has been a long issue that Taiwan is owned by China's territory and i believe even History can tell that it is indeed reality .
so basically this isn't really a worldwide problem though there are big country that using this advantage in their favor.

My advice, if you hear winds of war, buy. You know what.

I know what your saying here and Yes , I am ready if something like this happen lol .

[Lucius]

Do you guys really think that China would actually invade Taiwan? Despite it's huge population and monetary surplus, in terms of military strength China is far behind other countries like US and Russia. In fact they are even behind their own neighbors like Japan. Taiwan invasion will be like Waterloo for the PLA, as the Taiwanese armed forces will be fighting for their very survival. Even if the Americans don't directly support the Taiwanese, PLA is likely to suffer huge losses (in terms of manpower, equipment and funds).

Maybe some serious military analysts can answer your question about whether China will ever decide to act militarily towards Taiwan, and I think China will be very careful in that regard - before that, they will ask for Russia's support, and we all know that in this package of support, they automatically receive the support of Iran and some other countries close to China.

As for military strength, look at the comparison and draw your own conclusions, but I think everything is quite clear -> Comparison of China and Taiwan Military Strengths (2021)

According to the PowerIndex rankings, China is the 3rd country in terms of military strength, and Taiwan is on the 22nd place in that ranking.

[Coin_trader]

I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon. Although it is true that China could easily take Taiwan by force if they intend to do it, China is also very much aware how it won't happen without fighting against allied forces as well. And that wouldn't be easy for them. That is a war that wouldn't be worth it. Not only would China fail, they will be humiliated.

As to its potential effect to Bitcoin, I guess there won't be much unless it will become a full-blown war, which I don't think will happen. The China-Taiwan tension has been around for some time. The tension rises and falls but it never escalated into a war.

It may not go into war since the US told the news that they are not looking to make war but only to assist Taiwan not to be invaded.

But China has become aggressive in response to the fleet surrounding Taiwan which includes US and EU ships. They flew over Taiwan's airspace with more than 50 fighter jets recently, they reasoned it's an exercise for their independence which dates back to 1 October.

These countries are just finding ways to see how each would react and who will first shoot. American submarine also bumped into something under South China Sea, the report is just not very clear but they were talking about drones underwater or something.

US assisting Taiwan can still ignite a war since they are helping China's enemy. Many country might interfere on this conflict just like Afghanistan since 2 leading country are involved. If this invasion will continue with a violent attack, I think this will give a total chaos.

But this will not Bitcoin directly since Taiwan ain't a major holder nor play a major role on Bitcoin. Maybe if a world war ignite then world economy will gonna be heavily affected same with crypto.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

maybe because they think the war can result to banks shot down or because they think they will not be able to access their fiat for long time because of bank shot down during the period.

I'm not really sure that is or is going to be a concern for people, since most transactions are digital and it'd be kind of hard for a war to put a big bank out of business.  People might start hoarding cash and other things, though, and that might include bitcoin.

Anyway, I don't watch the news much--it just makes me angry every time I do, and I try to keep my stress level low.  I may take a peep and see what the situation is right now, because I'm really hoping a war doesn't break out.  Not because of anything related to bitcoin, but I just hate to see neighboring countries at each others' throats.

We know Silicon Valley in the US has the capability to manufacture and develop semiconductors and electronic chips... so they will just have to step up their operations and expand their capacity to replace the loss of the manufacturing abilities in Taiwan, if that happens.

Seriously, that could happen.  There are so many people out of work right now, whether it's because they're choosing to be unemployed or not, and I can imagine manufacturing making a comeback in the US.  It's been a very long time since the US manufactured its own electronic components, but stranger things have happened.

[Vatimins]

     As convincing as what your thoughts may seem, no one can really be sure about anything when it comes to china or to the cinese people since they are very strict about information. I mean, they barely even let their people socialize with the citizens of other countries. Only a selected few can do this or even has the courage to do so. China has their own social media etc., and are very secretive. So unless they really release news to the world by themselves, we can never be sure about anything.

[el kaka22]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

[DrBeer]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

This is not stupidity ... Two nuances can "play a game" here:
1. The goals of the party = the goals of the people. And if the party said “everyone should be under“ one wing, ”then it will be so. Otherwise, the party that promised and did not fulfill the promise will not be trusted, and this is unacceptable
2. In the event of an increase in internal tensions in China (and it seems that this is coming, due to an overheated and inflated economy), like any other totalitarian ruler, Xi Jinping, can use the classic move - "a small victorious war." All totalitarian rulers do this. Some people may even blow up houses with their citizens to increase their rating, I hope the Chinese ruler is not like that. But Taiwan can become such a "bargaining chip", the capture of which will reduce tensions, raise the status of the party and its leader to the skies.

[electronicash]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

This is not stupidity ... Two nuances can "play a game" here:
1. The goals of the party = the goals of the people. And if the party said “everyone should be under“ one wing, ”then it will be so. Otherwise, the party that promised and did not fulfill the promise will not be trusted, and this is unacceptable
2. In the event of an increase in internal tensions in China (and it seems that this is coming, due to an overheated and inflated economy), like any other totalitarian ruler, Xi Jinping, can use the classic move - "a small victorious war." All totalitarian rulers do this. Some people may even blow up houses with their citizens to increase their rating, I hope the Chinese ruler is not like that. But Taiwan can become such a "bargaining chip", the capture of which will reduce tensions, raise the status of the party and its leader to the skies.

it already is a bargaining chip for the westerners. it's only the westerners that claimed Taiwan is a country but they all know it's not. for it to be a country it has to have a consulate of US or any other country but it does not have. Taiwan has been part of China for centuries, it only breaks for some time.

China has a lot to lose when war comes so they may also be afraid of it. But they need Taiwan to have everything their advantage, there is got to be one that will give in. as of now, we can see China is choking the supply chain, this is a different kind of war.

[DOH!]

I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon. Although it is true that China could easily take Taiwan by force if they intend to do it, China is also very much aware how it won't happen without fighting against allied forces as well. And that wouldn't be easy for them. That is a war that wouldn't be worth it. Not only would China fail, they will be humiliated.

As to its potential effect to Bitcoin, I guess there won't be much unless it will become a full-blown war, which I don't think will happen. The China-Taiwan tension has been around for some time. The tension rises and falls but it never escalated into a war.

Political issues are practically excluding restrictions on bitcoin.
- The problem is that Taiwan is a very important place geographically for China. If they can be unified, the road to south-east Asia will be very "beneficial" - because they will control and dominate a sea of ​​Southeast Asia that is very fertile and open to resources but I I don't think there will be an inhumane war of force that will happen at least that is the preservation of the position for the warring parties including the support of the US.

[FairUser]

It will certainly affect the crypto market not only BTC, the tension between Taiwan and China over the pastime I see is only time for China to take the action they are thinking. We all understand what Taiwan has to attract the attention of such leading powers.
IMO, China will soon become the number one economic power when China is gradually wanting to control the entire region area. Perhaps what we don't expect is that the war will still go on, and then the contagion effects will play out in a way that requires the initiation of war.

[paxmao]

...
it already is a bargaining chip for the westerners. it's only the westerners that claimed Taiwan is a country but they all know it's not. for it to be a country it has to have a consulate of US or any other country but it does not have. Taiwan has been part of China for centuries, it only breaks for some time.

China has a lot to lose when war comes so they may also be afraid of it. But they need Taiwan to have everything their advantage, there is got to be one that will give in. as of now, we can see China is choking the supply chain, this is a different kind of war.

A few corrections:

1. You mean, only the "westerners" and the citizens of Taiwan, which have massively voted in favour of pro-independence.
2. You say that to be a country has to have a consulate of the US. Yet Taiwan does now have a consulate in US. So by your own argument, it is what?
3. China is choking the supply chain - nope, the supply chain has a huge backlog, but is not just due to China.

China has successfully taken Hong Kong, after many promises of "one state, two systems". That move that apparently was bold means that Taiwan can now only be taken by force.

...

We know Silicon Valley in the US has the capability to manufacture and develop semiconductors and electronic chips... so they will just have to step up their operations and expand their capacity...

Seriously, that could happen.  There are so many people out of work right now, whether it's because they're choosing to be unemployed or not, and I can imagine manufacturing making a comeback in the US.  It's been a very long time since the US manufactured its own electronic components, but stranger things have happened.

As I said on the original post, creating that capability takes years. We are not talking processors or GPUs or AI chips. It is about the basic semiconductor "cookie".

[Mauser]

This is a hard question. First of all Taiwan is a very small island and would have no chance in a war against China, only with international support Taiwan could hold out and engage in peace deals. If there were American, Japanese and maybe other Nato countries involved in Taiwan than it would also mean these countries would enact heavy sanctions against China. This would likely mean a collapse of international trade. The whole world is relying on cheap products from China. And China is relying heavily on their export sector. So after the initial shock to probably all asset classes except high security assets, it would be a good time to buy. I don't think we will see a long war between Taiwan and China, either they will annex Taiwan quickly or have to back off.

[beerlover]

As I said on the original post, creating that capability takes years. We are not talking processors or GPUs or AI chips. It is about the basic semiconductor "cookie".

You are saying it takes years and maybe even a decade, and you are saying that it costs a ton of money to do something like that. However I wonder, is there money to be made from it? Because it doesn't matter how expensive something is, it depends on the return. If I have spend as much as 100 billion dollars for something like a factory and resources, I would still do it if I am making over 10 billion dollars a year, because that is 10% return every year. You are saying it is a very expensive thing but it could be done everywhere around the world if there was money to be made from it.

I am sure it is not a very bad business where they make a loss all the time, I am sure they are making a profit, but maybe it is not making too much profit? If it is making enough profit then we should be seeing more and more factories since it is money to be made.

[DrBeer]

....
it already is a bargaining chip for the westerners. it's only the westerners that claimed Taiwan is a country but they all know it's not. for it to be a country it has to have a consulate of US or any other country but it does not have. Taiwan has been part of China for centuries, it only breaks for some time.
China has a lot to lose when war comes so they may also be afraid of it. But they need Taiwan to have everything their advantage, there is got to be one that will give in. as of now, we can see China is choking the supply chain, this is a different kind of war.

Both agree and disagree. If we talk about Europe, then everything does not matter. The main thing for them is that no one touches them, that money flows into their pockets, even from bloody regimes. And don't give a damn about the whole world ...
If we talk about the United States, they have a slightly different view. They do not care who or what Taiwan, the main thing is that they know that injustice is hanging over him. This means that the United States must help restore justice

But seriously, the problem is quite real. When Russia started a war against Ukraine and annexed Crimea from Ukraine, and China was one of the countries that chose a passive position when voting on this crime, I said then - this is not just that. Some perceived this as support for Russia (if they didn’t accuse them of a crime, it means they supported it, this logic lives on in Russia), but in fact, China simply didn’t recognize such a situation as a crime, so that there would be no precedent, and any actions with foreign territories will not happen. contradict China's position in the world. Whether it will be Taiwan, or the historical territories of Siberia and the Far East of Russia, or both, no one will poke a claim in China in the face, what do you consider an annexation of foreign territories to be a crime, and you yourself are doing it ?!

[Rufsilf]

I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon. Although it is true that China could easily take Taiwan by force if they intend to do it, China is also very much aware how it won't happen without fighting against allied forces as well. And that wouldn't be easy for them. That is a war that wouldn't be worth it. Not only would China fail, they will be humiliated.

As to its potential effect to Bitcoin, I guess there won't be much unless it will become a full-blown war, which I don't think will happen. The China-Taiwan tension has been around for some time. The tension rises and falls but it never escalated into a war.

It may not go into war since the US told the news that they are not looking to make war but only to assist Taiwan not to be invaded.

But China has become aggressive in response to the fleet surrounding Taiwan which includes US and EU ships. They flew over Taiwan's airspace with more than 50 fighter jets recently, they reasoned it's an exercise for their independence which dates back to 1 October.

These countries are just finding ways to see how each would react and who will first shoot. American submarine also bumped into something under South China Sea, the report is just not very clear but they were talking about drones underwater or something.

Yes, this it's true that China always trespassing laws wether if it's in sea or air and yet they always have an excuse that they are just exercising their rights and China keeps on bullying neighbouring countries like Philippines and Taiwan, it is almost safe to say that China wants war but doesn't want to make the first move to declare war along other countries.

If a war will happen then not only bitcoin is affected, it's a global issue because it's happening in South China Sea where almost 70% of the worlds cargo, crude and LNG travels along this strait. As of bitcoin, I think the value would eventually rise because if US helps taiwan against China then their currency will start to drop and many people will start to convert their respective currencies to bitcoin as the lose trust in their fiat.

[Fortify]

More than a rumour, this is becoming a Heavy Metal live streaming at 4 a.m. China is building up their military to the point in which they could actually enact their desire of taking effectively over the government of Taiwan. As most of you know, as of now, Taiwan is considered a "rebel territory" by China, "that is part of China". Taiwan is also part of the strategy of the US and its allies in the Northern Pacific (Japan, South Korea). Taiwan is nothing less than a territory in dispute between China and US (not exactly, as the US does not argue that is US territory).

So, nothing to worry about, just another quarrel between the superpower and the possibly next superpower. But there is a little factor that makes Taiwan a very interesting place, and that is called TSMC  AKA Taiwan Semiconductors. This company (along with Samsung) manufacture most of the semiconductors worldwide and they have technologies that are even a decade ahead of competitors.

What do you think could happen if a proxy war for Taiwan takes place in the next years? As a hint, today a few car manufacturing plants have reduced production due to lack of semiconductors. Many other industries are also affected. Imagine that TSMC is unable to continue production or that factories are destroyed in the process. This would mean a global slowdown and a crisis that may dwarf COVID.

BTW, a semiconductor plant is nothing you can improvise. The investment is huge, the technical difficulties extreme and building times quite long.

My advice, if you hear winds of war, buy. You know what.

It will be a sad day for peace in the world if this ever comes through to fruition. China (or more specifically the CCP) seems like nothing except a big bully that needs a powerful punch to the nose in order to learn some respect. There has been a very delicate equilibrium in the world for many decades and countries where people are free have lead that innovation for the most part. While China might be the factory of the world it is structurally not very innovative because good or original ideas are less likely to succeed in an environment of such authoritarian suppression. Honestly, if Taiwan equipped itself with nukes in self defense that would seem a justifiable response to any attempts at evasion. China has also supported the heavily erratic North Korea in the same manner (acquiring nuclear weapons) so it would not be unprecedented and simply a "favor" returned.

[bekti3]

I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon. Although it is true that China could easily take Taiwan by force if they intend to do it, China is also very much aware how it won't happen without fighting against allied forces as well. And that wouldn't be easy for them. That is a war that wouldn't be worth it. Not only would China fail, they will be humiliated.

As to its potential effect to Bitcoin, I guess there won't be much unless it will become a full-blown war, which I don't think will happen. The China-Taiwan tension has been around for some time. The tension rises and falls but it never escalated into a war.

It may not go into war since the US told the news that they are not looking to make war but only to assist Taiwan not to be invaded.

But China has become aggressive in response to the fleet surrounding Taiwan which includes US and EU ships. They flew over Taiwan's airspace with more than 50 fighter jets recently, they reasoned it's an exercise for their independence which dates back to 1 October.

These countries are just finding ways to see how each would react and who will first shoot. American submarine also bumped into something under South China Sea, the report is just not very clear but they were talking about drones underwater or something.

This is a war of nerves that is quite strong because there are so many countries that could be involved in this.
Regarding the jets you said, I think this is one of the tactics that when one country loses and is provoked, they will be blamed.
and when that happens, a full-scale war will occur that will involve the warring countries

[Argoo]

It is unlikely that China will dare to attack Taiwan anytime soon. The United States has already warned that if this happens, they will not leave Taiwan in trouble. Now almost all countries have a lot of problems, and above all, a common problem is the coronavirus. There are many hotbeds of military tension. However, let's imagine that a regional war broke out in this region. How will this affect cryptocurrency? During the hostilities in this region, real estate depreciates, physical money and values ​​become difficult to take out of this region and they also depreciate. The cryptocurrency will be very convenient to invest in it all that will depreciate. In such a situation, it should grow rapidly in value.

[V-t.Ester]

It’s an absolutely controversial situation between three countries. Taiwan is so small that it can’t do anything in case if China and USA will make a deal with each other. Moreover Taiwan is an independent country only because USA supports it and in case of any war conflict, USA will duly repulse to China (possibly only this is stopping China from seize power in Taiwan by force). It’s hard to predict how all this situation can influence on BTC’s price. Perhaps even no how.

[paxmao]

I recently learned that Taiwan Semiconductors is planning to become much less Taiwan and more Semiconductors. In fact is more in the line of becoming US Semiconductors as the management is planning to reduce the obvious geopolitical risks they currently have with a progressively more militarised  China altering the balance of the region to the point of having companies based in Taiwan willing to relocate at a huge expense.

[cheezcarls]

Maybe it would impact Bitcoin's price on a short term basis if in case they've escalated it into war. After successfully taking over Hong Kong people's freedom rights and implemented security law, Taiwan is next on their radar claiming that they should be unified.

US and Japan are there to help Taiwan just in case something bad happens when China decided to attack at least once. I also don't like China taking over the West Philippine Sea and the US are also backing up the Philippines for that.

[Snappycoco]

The invasion could trigger a World War that would probably lead to world economic crisis meaning price of the market would surge down drastically. I think massive sell off will happen and the impact could be horrendous on Cryptocurrency market as a whole. War between Democracy and Communist ideology would end millions of lives and if not solved peacefully, it would be the end of civilization.

[Sithara007]

The invasion could trigger a World War that would probably lead to world economic crisis meaning price of the market would surge down drastically. I think massive sell off will happen and the impact could be horrendous on Cryptocurrency market as a whole. War between Democracy and Communist ideology would end millions of lives and if not solved peacefully, it would be the end of civilization.

There are two questions here - 1. Will there be a world war, in case China invades Taiwan. 2. In case there is a world war, what will be its impact on Bitcoin. The second question is easier to answer. Because the governments will resort to unlimited printing of banknotes and this will push the inflation rates to sky-high levels. However, the answer to the first question is not clear. Personally, I don't think that Biden is strong enough to defend Taiwan, in case the PLA decides to invade that country. If Trump was still there, then there would have been a chance.

[michellee]

The invasion could trigger a World War that would probably lead to world economic crisis meaning price of the market would surge down drastically. I think massive sell off will happen and the impact could be horrendous on Cryptocurrency market as a whole. War between Democracy and Communist ideology would end millions of lives and if not solved peacefully, it would be the end of civilization.

Hopefully, the World War will not happen because that can make many people suffer and hard to survive. If that really happens, all markets can crash because people want to save their money and run away to search for a safe place. If that World War happen and damage almost everything, including the internet, that can impact crypto and maybe people can not use crypto when the internet connection is also damaged. That is the impact that will happen to crypto, so we should pray that will not happen.

[Ucy]

Well, from your perspective it would seem as it's merely about semiconductor or territory control but I think it's much more than that. It's a game of maintaining the title of superpower or losing it. This game has been with humans for a long time even though we may not realize it.
It'll definitely remain with Babylon even if satan wants it for Asian giant. The "Red king" handled this quite well before power was taken from him. He will do "better" than before when power is given back to him.

[DrBeer]

You can try to simulate the situation and understand whether it will affect the crypto market. As a result of modeling, we should get some indicator that will say whether it looks like a world crisis or a global market or not, because it is such events that lead to an increase in the price of the crypt (everyone is trying to fix themselves in something that the problem market does not affect).
So - the power operation of China against Taiwan. China needs to understand that the core value is the semiconductor industry
 Taiwan. If China is smart, it will simply try to gain full control over the industry, declare a "change of ownership" and continue to fulfill its earlier obligations (1). If the world community "swallows" another forceful takeover (1.1) ... If it does not swallow, China will receive sanctions, restrictive measures will be introduced on the supply of semiconductors produced in the occupied territories or even from China (1.2)
If China is not smart, the fighting will lead to the destruction of industry (2).

Scenes 1 - 1.1. will not give any shock, no panic, no stress. Impact 0.

Scenarios 1 - 1.2 or 1-2 is a problem. This is a huge problem for microelectronics manufacturers. Yes, they will look for a way out, but they can start up previously stopped production in the United States, but this is time, money.

Such scenarios are stressful for the global economy.
Moreover, scenario 1.2 can also lead to an irreversible collapse of the Chinese economy. Here is a very real world crisis on the horizon, and here the crypt can easily fly to the moon ...

This is my very simplistic scenario. Can you suggest your

[Ozero]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

This is not stupidity ... Two nuances can "play a game" here:
1. The goals of the party = the goals of the people. And if the party said “everyone should be under“ one wing, ”then it will be so. Otherwise, the party that promised and did not fulfill the promise will not be trusted, and this is unacceptable
2. In the event of an increase in internal tensions in China (and it seems that this is coming, due to an overheated and inflated economy), like any other totalitarian ruler, Xi Jinping, can use the classic move - "a small victorious war." All totalitarian rulers do this. Some people may even blow up houses with their citizens to increase their rating, I hope the Chinese ruler is not like that. But Taiwan can become such a "bargaining chip", the capture of which will reduce tensions, raise the status of the party and its leader to the skies.

It is predicted that if Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this will untie the hands of other states that have territorial claims against other states. First of all, this concerns China, which will take advantage of the situation and may attack Taiwan. In the future, if Russia weakens in this war, then China and Japan can tear it apart after that. So Russia can set a bad example and also suffer from it.
At the same time, if there is no war and Russia is afraid to attack Ukraine, since the US and Europe have taken a rather tough stance against Putin's aggressive plans, then other potential aggressors will calm down.

[Gyfts]

...

The peaceful portion of this unification quite literally is China using their military power to strong-arm Taiwan into submission. Taiwan will fall just like Hong Kong did. It won't be a military invasion, rather slow adoption of Taiwan's governmental framework into China's hands because Taiwan does not have the military capacity to respond. It will be peaceful, but forced, with little resistance. And then China gets hold of one of the largest microchip manufacturing industries in the world. Surely would put a damper on mining operations.

[DrBeer]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

This is not stupidity ... Two nuances can "play a game" here:
1. The goals of the party = the goals of the people. And if the party said “everyone should be under“ one wing, ”then it will be so. Otherwise, the party that promised and did not fulfill the promise will not be trusted, and this is unacceptable
2. In the event of an increase in internal tensions in China (and it seems that this is coming, due to an overheated and inflated economy), like any other totalitarian ruler, Xi Jinping, can use the classic move - "a small victorious war." All totalitarian rulers do this. Some people may even blow up houses with their citizens to increase their rating, I hope the Chinese ruler is not like that. But Taiwan can become such a "bargaining chip", the capture of which will reduce tensions, raise the status of the party and its leader to the skies.

it already is a bargaining chip for the westerners. it's only the westerners that claimed Taiwan is a country but they all know it's not. for it to be a country it has to have a consulate of US or any other country but it does not have. Taiwan has been part of China for centuries, it only breaks for some time.

China has a lot to lose when war comes so they may also be afraid of it. But they need Taiwan to have everything their advantage, there is got to be one that will give in. as of now, we can see China is choking the supply chain, this is a different kind of war.

Let's go in order:
1. theme with "something there, for many centuries belonged to someone there." Well, let's start this topic - tell me what to consider as a starting point? I know that in 2 BC, all of China belonged to the Qin Empire. Let's return China to their heirs? Or is it not correct? But I also know that since the 13th century, the territories of China belonged to the Mongol conquerors for more than a century - are we giving it back to Mongolia? Or is something wrong again? The Russian Trans-Urals has been the territory of the Chinese empire for centuries - are we returning the PRC? It's time to stop comparing memories of who once belonged to whom! There are borders of countries accepted by the whole world in the last century. Everything, this is unchanged, except when they want to join or unite on their own, and only with bilateral consent.
2. The Chinese ruling party has mental deviations similar to those of the Kremlin politicians - they decided to leave themselves in history, one as a "collector of Chinese lands" the second as a "collector of Russian lands." But this is a mental deviation, there will be no more empires!

[Vatimins]

     And that is why people in Taiwan are in constant fear and have no choice but to rely on other powers just to be able to stand their ground regardless of knowing that they are being taken advantage of. Although this may be a big threat, I really don't think it'll end up in an actual war. The worse would only be a high tension that ALMOST ends up in a war. With how advanced weaponry are today, there is just too much to lose. That is, if the US really sticks into their promises. The preparation of China is just to stike fear hoping that Taiwan would submit.

     Although unlikely, I do not disregard the small chance though and if it does happen, I hope it doesn't escalate too much that it ends up in a wide scale world war. Man, that's scary. -buying the dips for prewar though.

[DrBeer]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

This is not stupidity ... Two nuances can "play a game" here:
1. The goals of the party = the goals of the people. And if the party said “everyone should be under“ one wing, ”then it will be so. Otherwise, the party that promised and did not fulfill the promise will not be trusted, and this is unacceptable
2. In the event of an increase in internal tensions in China (and it seems that this is coming, due to an overheated and inflated economy), like any other totalitarian ruler, Xi Jinping, can use the classic move - "a small victorious war." All totalitarian rulers do this. Some people may even blow up houses with their citizens to increase their rating, I hope the Chinese ruler is not like that. But Taiwan can become such a "bargaining chip", the capture of which will reduce tensions, raise the status of the party and its leader to the skies.

It is predicted that if Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this will untie the hands of other states that have territorial claims against other states. First of all, this concerns China, which will take advantage of the situation and may attack Taiwan. In the future, if Russia weakens in this war, then China and Japan can tear it apart after that. So Russia can set a bad example and also suffer from it.
At the same time, if there is no war and Russia is afraid to attack Ukraine, since the US and Europe have taken a rather tough stance against Putin's aggressive plans, then other potential aggressors will calm down.

As a citizen of Ukraine, I will clarify that Russia has no territorial claims against Ukraine. Russia has painful imperial fantasies, and cowardice in front of a country that has shown by its own example how tyrants and idiot presidents are overthrown. For Putin, this is a deadly option, because he is making every effort to ensure that Ukraine, as a free independent country, stops demonstrating to the "Russian world" how to deal with such under-furrers like Putin.
Crimea is just an illogical, and mostly contrived example for Russia's attempt to justify its aggression. I invite you to read about the history of Crimea on your own, to whom and for how long it belonged, who ruled it, who made it the Crimea that it was until recently - green, blooming and LIVE! Now this peninsula is degrading and dying...

[lixer]

And that is why people in Taiwan are in constant fear and have no choice but to rely on other powers just to be able to stand their ground regardless of knowing that they are being taken advantage of. Although this may be a big threat, I really don't think it'll end up in an actual war. The worse would only be a high tension that ALMOST ends up in a war. With how advanced weaponry are today, there is just too much to lose. That is, if the US really sticks into their promises. The preparation of China is just to stike fear hoping that Taiwan would submit.

     Although unlikely, I do not disregard the small chance though and if it does happen, I hope it doesn't escalate too much that it ends up in a wide scale world war. Man, that's scary. -buying the dips for prewar though.

Indeed wars are scary but I am surprise that buying at the dip are still on your mind. The only question is how can you do that when you cant connect to the web because towers are destroyed by the wars? I bet you must be panicking that time the moment a real war begins but let us hope that it wont happen. Lots of crisis already hit us from the past and many lives are already lost.

Taiwan might be too weak as a country so they are relying on a much stronger country for help. I do not see that as a big problem and if your on that situation I think you will also think of that. Taiwan invasion will have an effect in bitcoin but the effect can be mild only.

[DrBeer]

...

The peaceful portion of this unification quite literally is China using their military power to strong-arm Taiwan into submission. Taiwan will fall just like Hong Kong did. It won't be a military invasion, rather slow adoption of Taiwan's governmental framework into China's hands because Taiwan does not have the military capacity to respond. It will be peaceful, but forced, with little resistance. And then China gets hold of one of the largest microchip manufacturing industries in the world. Surely would put a damper on mining operations.

But you didn’t consider the option when Taiwan simply transfers its key production facilities to any adequate country, and China will get just empty land with 20+ million people with whom something needs to be done, plus those who don’t really love China and the Chinese authorities. Such a victory, and of course, all this will definitely bring reputational losses as an aggressor country.

[7788bitcoin]

~
Taiwan might be too weak as a country so they are relying on a much stronger country for help. I do not see that as a big problem and if your on that situation I think you will also think of that. Taiwan invasion will have an effect in bitcoin but the effect can be mild only.

Taiwan invasion and he started this topic on October last year and still everything is fine as far as i understand and the now hot topic is Ukraine and Russian issue and the same kind of hype is created and hopefully we will not see any invasion either. Some of the companies that i know moved outside of Ukraine and i am not sure it is because of this threat or otherwise.

Any global issue might have a momentary affect to the valuation if that is being asked, other than that there is nothing in the long run.

[Vatimins]

Indeed wars are scary but I am surprise that buying at the dip are still on your mind. The only question is how can you do that when you cant connect to the web because towers are destroyed by the wars? I bet you must be panicking that time the moment a real war begins but let us hope that it wont happen. Lots of crisis already hit us from the past and many lives are already lost.

     Nothing to be surprised about. I am only being realistic and wars don't spread that much if it turns into a worldwide scale. That is because strategic planning takes place and every move will be highly calculated to have the most advantages, least casualties and so on. Which means, I still have the time to prepare and to buy. Always think ahead and don't let panic rule over you. There is even the slightest possibility for any scenario, be prepared for it.

Taiwan might be too weak as a country so they are relying on a much stronger country for help. I do not see that as a big problem and if your on that situation I think you will also think of that.

     Yes it is, but not as weak as ours though lol. Believe me, I am in a country with much worse situation. Just so happens that our president is both strong and smart. But even so, we won't be able to survive even a day if we were to be in a war with another country. Artillery isn't our best and what we have at most are artilleries that are second hand or are already defective but just fixed to make do. Which is why we also once were very dependent on other countries to the extent that we ignore unspeakable things done and said towards us. If not for the current administration, we would still be kissing asses to this day. Not proud of it but it is how it is.

Taiwan invasion will have an effect in bitcoin but the effect can be mild only.

     Well that depends entirely on the scale of this thing.

Main points:

     - One point is that being able to think ahead and being calm at any situation is what I want to be.

     - Another point is that though it may seem I was judging, I was not and was even feeling pity for them.

[FanEagle]

The chip situation is probably the most important one that is directly related to bitcoin. Leaving all the humanity and the wars and all of that aside which is already terrible wherever it happens, we are talking about simply bitcoin related stuff. In that case Taiwan has one of the biggest and best chip factories in the world and since that will be stopped, we are going to end up with a big problem as well. This is the reason why we should not be expecting GPU prices to go down anytime soon.

We have BTC running with machines which require chips too, we have ETH now (but will go to 2.0 staking) and other coins that have GPU mining all requiring chips. Basically it will impact the crypto world in the security stage because the more hash power there is, the more security there is and if we have less machines because of lack of chips, we will have less security.