Taiwan invasion - how would it affect bitcoin

[michellee]

The invasion could trigger a World War that would probably lead to world economic crisis meaning price of the market would surge down drastically. I think massive sell off will happen and the impact could be horrendous on Cryptocurrency market as a whole. War between Democracy and Communist ideology would end millions of lives and if not solved peacefully, it would be the end of civilization.

Hopefully, the World War will not happen because that can make many people suffer and hard to survive. If that really happens, all markets can crash because people want to save their money and run away to search for a safe place. If that World War happen and damage almost everything, including the internet, that can impact crypto and maybe people can not use crypto when the internet connection is also damaged. That is the impact that will happen to crypto, so we should pray that will not happen.

[1714858547]

1714858547

[Ucy]

Well, from your perspective it would seem as it's merely about semiconductor or territory control but I think it's much more than that. It's a game of maintaining the title of superpower or losing it. This game has been with humans for a long time even though we may not realize it.
It'll definitely remain with Babylon even if satan wants it for Asian giant. The "Red king" handled this quite well before power was taken from him. He will do "better" than before when power is given back to him.

[DrBeer]

You can try to simulate the situation and understand whether it will affect the crypto market. As a result of modeling, we should get some indicator that will say whether it looks like a world crisis or a global market or not, because it is such events that lead to an increase in the price of the crypt (everyone is trying to fix themselves in something that the problem market does not affect).
So - the power operation of China against Taiwan. China needs to understand that the core value is the semiconductor industry
 Taiwan. If China is smart, it will simply try to gain full control over the industry, declare a "change of ownership" and continue to fulfill its earlier obligations (1). If the world community "swallows" another forceful takeover (1.1) ... If it does not swallow, China will receive sanctions, restrictive measures will be introduced on the supply of semiconductors produced in the occupied territories or even from China (1.2)
If China is not smart, the fighting will lead to the destruction of industry (2).

Scenes 1 - 1.1. will not give any shock, no panic, no stress. Impact 0.

Scenarios 1 - 1.2 or 1-2 is a problem. This is a huge problem for microelectronics manufacturers. Yes, they will look for a way out, but they can start up previously stopped production in the United States, but this is time, money.

Such scenarios are stressful for the global economy.
Moreover, scenario 1.2 can also lead to an irreversible collapse of the Chinese economy. Here is a very real world crisis on the horizon, and here the crypt can easily fly to the moon ...

This is my very simplistic scenario. Can you suggest your

[Ozero]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

This is not stupidity ... Two nuances can "play a game" here:
1. The goals of the party = the goals of the people. And if the party said “everyone should be under“ one wing, ”then it will be so. Otherwise, the party that promised and did not fulfill the promise will not be trusted, and this is unacceptable
2. In the event of an increase in internal tensions in China (and it seems that this is coming, due to an overheated and inflated economy), like any other totalitarian ruler, Xi Jinping, can use the classic move - "a small victorious war." All totalitarian rulers do this. Some people may even blow up houses with their citizens to increase their rating, I hope the Chinese ruler is not like that. But Taiwan can become such a "bargaining chip", the capture of which will reduce tensions, raise the status of the party and its leader to the skies.

It is predicted that if Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this will untie the hands of other states that have territorial claims against other states. First of all, this concerns China, which will take advantage of the situation and may attack Taiwan. In the future, if Russia weakens in this war, then China and Japan can tear it apart after that. So Russia can set a bad example and also suffer from it.
At the same time, if there is no war and Russia is afraid to attack Ukraine, since the US and Europe have taken a rather tough stance against Putin's aggressive plans, then other potential aggressors will calm down.

[Gyfts]

...

The peaceful portion of this unification quite literally is China using their military power to strong-arm Taiwan into submission. Taiwan will fall just like Hong Kong did. It won't be a military invasion, rather slow adoption of Taiwan's governmental framework into China's hands because Taiwan does not have the military capacity to respond. It will be peaceful, but forced, with little resistance. And then China gets hold of one of the largest microchip manufacturing industries in the world. Surely would put a damper on mining operations.

[DrBeer]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

This is not stupidity ... Two nuances can "play a game" here:
1. The goals of the party = the goals of the people. And if the party said “everyone should be under“ one wing, ”then it will be so. Otherwise, the party that promised and did not fulfill the promise will not be trusted, and this is unacceptable
2. In the event of an increase in internal tensions in China (and it seems that this is coming, due to an overheated and inflated economy), like any other totalitarian ruler, Xi Jinping, can use the classic move - "a small victorious war." All totalitarian rulers do this. Some people may even blow up houses with their citizens to increase their rating, I hope the Chinese ruler is not like that. But Taiwan can become such a "bargaining chip", the capture of which will reduce tensions, raise the status of the party and its leader to the skies.

it already is a bargaining chip for the westerners. it's only the westerners that claimed Taiwan is a country but they all know it's not. for it to be a country it has to have a consulate of US or any other country but it does not have. Taiwan has been part of China for centuries, it only breaks for some time.

China has a lot to lose when war comes so they may also be afraid of it. But they need Taiwan to have everything their advantage, there is got to be one that will give in. as of now, we can see China is choking the supply chain, this is a different kind of war.

Let's go in order:
1. theme with "something there, for many centuries belonged to someone there." Well, let's start this topic - tell me what to consider as a starting point? I know that in 2 BC, all of China belonged to the Qin Empire. Let's return China to their heirs? Or is it not correct? But I also know that since the 13th century, the territories of China belonged to the Mongol conquerors for more than a century - are we giving it back to Mongolia? Or is something wrong again? The Russian Trans-Urals has been the territory of the Chinese empire for centuries - are we returning the PRC? It's time to stop comparing memories of who once belonged to whom! There are borders of countries accepted by the whole world in the last century. Everything, this is unchanged, except when they want to join or unite on their own, and only with bilateral consent.
2. The Chinese ruling party has mental deviations similar to those of the Kremlin politicians - they decided to leave themselves in history, one as a "collector of Chinese lands" the second as a "collector of Russian lands." But this is a mental deviation, there will be no more empires!

[Vatimins]

     And that is why people in Taiwan are in constant fear and have no choice but to rely on other powers just to be able to stand their ground regardless of knowing that they are being taken advantage of. Although this may be a big threat, I really don't think it'll end up in an actual war. The worse would only be a high tension that ALMOST ends up in a war. With how advanced weaponry are today, there is just too much to lose. That is, if the US really sticks into their promises. The preparation of China is just to stike fear hoping that Taiwan would submit.

     Although unlikely, I do not disregard the small chance though and if it does happen, I hope it doesn't escalate too much that it ends up in a wide scale world war. Man, that's scary. -buying the dips for prewar though.

[DrBeer]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

This is not stupidity ... Two nuances can "play a game" here:
1. The goals of the party = the goals of the people. And if the party said “everyone should be under“ one wing, ”then it will be so. Otherwise, the party that promised and did not fulfill the promise will not be trusted, and this is unacceptable
2. In the event of an increase in internal tensions in China (and it seems that this is coming, due to an overheated and inflated economy), like any other totalitarian ruler, Xi Jinping, can use the classic move - "a small victorious war." All totalitarian rulers do this. Some people may even blow up houses with their citizens to increase their rating, I hope the Chinese ruler is not like that. But Taiwan can become such a "bargaining chip", the capture of which will reduce tensions, raise the status of the party and its leader to the skies.

It is predicted that if Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this will untie the hands of other states that have territorial claims against other states. First of all, this concerns China, which will take advantage of the situation and may attack Taiwan. In the future, if Russia weakens in this war, then China and Japan can tear it apart after that. So Russia can set a bad example and also suffer from it.
At the same time, if there is no war and Russia is afraid to attack Ukraine, since the US and Europe have taken a rather tough stance against Putin's aggressive plans, then other potential aggressors will calm down.

As a citizen of Ukraine, I will clarify that Russia has no territorial claims against Ukraine. Russia has painful imperial fantasies, and cowardice in front of a country that has shown by its own example how tyrants and idiot presidents are overthrown. For Putin, this is a deadly option, because he is making every effort to ensure that Ukraine, as a free independent country, stops demonstrating to the "Russian world" how to deal with such under-furrers like Putin.
Crimea is just an illogical, and mostly contrived example for Russia's attempt to justify its aggression. I invite you to read about the history of Crimea on your own, to whom and for how long it belonged, who ruled it, who made it the Crimea that it was until recently - green, blooming and LIVE! Now this peninsula is degrading and dying...

[lixer]

And that is why people in Taiwan are in constant fear and have no choice but to rely on other powers just to be able to stand their ground regardless of knowing that they are being taken advantage of. Although this may be a big threat, I really don't think it'll end up in an actual war. The worse would only be a high tension that ALMOST ends up in a war. With how advanced weaponry are today, there is just too much to lose. That is, if the US really sticks into their promises. The preparation of China is just to stike fear hoping that Taiwan would submit.

     Although unlikely, I do not disregard the small chance though and if it does happen, I hope it doesn't escalate too much that it ends up in a wide scale world war. Man, that's scary. -buying the dips for prewar though.

Indeed wars are scary but I am surprise that buying at the dip are still on your mind. The only question is how can you do that when you cant connect to the web because towers are destroyed by the wars? I bet you must be panicking that time the moment a real war begins but let us hope that it wont happen. Lots of crisis already hit us from the past and many lives are already lost.

Taiwan might be too weak as a country so they are relying on a much stronger country for help. I do not see that as a big problem and if your on that situation I think you will also think of that. Taiwan invasion will have an effect in bitcoin but the effect can be mild only.

[DrBeer]

...

The peaceful portion of this unification quite literally is China using their military power to strong-arm Taiwan into submission. Taiwan will fall just like Hong Kong did. It won't be a military invasion, rather slow adoption of Taiwan's governmental framework into China's hands because Taiwan does not have the military capacity to respond. It will be peaceful, but forced, with little resistance. And then China gets hold of one of the largest microchip manufacturing industries in the world. Surely would put a damper on mining operations.

But you didn’t consider the option when Taiwan simply transfers its key production facilities to any adequate country, and China will get just empty land with 20+ million people with whom something needs to be done, plus those who don’t really love China and the Chinese authorities. Such a victory, and of course, all this will definitely bring reputational losses as an aggressor country.

[7788bitcoin]

~
Taiwan might be too weak as a country so they are relying on a much stronger country for help. I do not see that as a big problem and if your on that situation I think you will also think of that. Taiwan invasion will have an effect in bitcoin but the effect can be mild only.

Taiwan invasion and he started this topic on October last year and still everything is fine as far as i understand and the now hot topic is Ukraine and Russian issue and the same kind of hype is created and hopefully we will not see any invasion either. Some of the companies that i know moved outside of Ukraine and i am not sure it is because of this threat or otherwise.

Any global issue might have a momentary affect to the valuation if that is being asked, other than that there is nothing in the long run.

[Vatimins]

Indeed wars are scary but I am surprise that buying at the dip are still on your mind. The only question is how can you do that when you cant connect to the web because towers are destroyed by the wars? I bet you must be panicking that time the moment a real war begins but let us hope that it wont happen. Lots of crisis already hit us from the past and many lives are already lost.

     Nothing to be surprised about. I am only being realistic and wars don't spread that much if it turns into a worldwide scale. That is because strategic planning takes place and every move will be highly calculated to have the most advantages, least casualties and so on. Which means, I still have the time to prepare and to buy. Always think ahead and don't let panic rule over you. There is even the slightest possibility for any scenario, be prepared for it.

Taiwan might be too weak as a country so they are relying on a much stronger country for help. I do not see that as a big problem and if your on that situation I think you will also think of that.

     Yes it is, but not as weak as ours though lol. Believe me, I am in a country with much worse situation. Just so happens that our president is both strong and smart. But even so, we won't be able to survive even a day if we were to be in a war with another country. Artillery isn't our best and what we have at most are artilleries that are second hand or are already defective but just fixed to make do. Which is why we also once were very dependent on other countries to the extent that we ignore unspeakable things done and said towards us. If not for the current administration, we would still be kissing asses to this day. Not proud of it but it is how it is.

Taiwan invasion will have an effect in bitcoin but the effect can be mild only.

     Well that depends entirely on the scale of this thing.

Main points:

     - One point is that being able to think ahead and being calm at any situation is what I want to be.

     - Another point is that though it may seem I was judging, I was not and was even feeling pity for them.

[FanEagle]

The chip situation is probably the most important one that is directly related to bitcoin. Leaving all the humanity and the wars and all of that aside which is already terrible wherever it happens, we are talking about simply bitcoin related stuff. In that case Taiwan has one of the biggest and best chip factories in the world and since that will be stopped, we are going to end up with a big problem as well. This is the reason why we should not be expecting GPU prices to go down anytime soon.

We have BTC running with machines which require chips too, we have ETH now (but will go to 2.0 staking) and other coins that have GPU mining all requiring chips. Basically it will impact the crypto world in the security stage because the more hash power there is, the more security there is and if we have less machines because of lack of chips, we will have less security.