Taiwan invasion - how would it affect bitcoin

[The Sceptical Chymist]

maybe because they think the war can result to banks shot down or because they think they will not be able to access their fiat for long time because of bank shot down during the period.

I'm not really sure that is or is going to be a concern for people, since most transactions are digital and it'd be kind of hard for a war to put a big bank out of business.  People might start hoarding cash and other things, though, and that might include bitcoin.

Anyway, I don't watch the news much--it just makes me angry every time I do, and I try to keep my stress level low.  I may take a peep and see what the situation is right now, because I'm really hoping a war doesn't break out.  Not because of anything related to bitcoin, but I just hate to see neighboring countries at each others' throats.

We know Silicon Valley in the US has the capability to manufacture and develop semiconductors and electronic chips... so they will just have to step up their operations and expand their capacity to replace the loss of the manufacturing abilities in Taiwan, if that happens.

Seriously, that could happen.  There are so many people out of work right now, whether it's because they're choosing to be unemployed or not, and I can imagine manufacturing making a comeback in the US.  It's been a very long time since the US manufactured its own electronic components, but stranger things have happened.

[1714861510]

1714861510

[Vatimins]

     As convincing as what your thoughts may seem, no one can really be sure about anything when it comes to china or to the cinese people since they are very strict about information. I mean, they barely even let their people socialize with the citizens of other countries. Only a selected few can do this or even has the courage to do so. China has their own social media etc., and are very secretive. So unless they really release news to the world by themselves, we can never be sure about anything.

[el kaka22]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

[DrBeer]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

This is not stupidity ... Two nuances can "play a game" here:
1. The goals of the party = the goals of the people. And if the party said “everyone should be under“ one wing, ”then it will be so. Otherwise, the party that promised and did not fulfill the promise will not be trusted, and this is unacceptable
2. In the event of an increase in internal tensions in China (and it seems that this is coming, due to an overheated and inflated economy), like any other totalitarian ruler, Xi Jinping, can use the classic move - "a small victorious war." All totalitarian rulers do this. Some people may even blow up houses with their citizens to increase their rating, I hope the Chinese ruler is not like that. But Taiwan can become such a "bargaining chip", the capture of which will reduce tensions, raise the status of the party and its leader to the skies.

[electronicash]

Considering semiconductors do get manufactured in Taiwan this much, and how western nations buy probably nearly all of it, I would assume that there is a good chance in any "real" war, as in like guns and airplanes and all that, I would assume that we would probably see a lot more western nations go into this war as well. Kind of like how Korea was split into two, there wasn't a real winner there, nobody actually won, NK ended up ruining the life of so many people with the help of China.

I am afraid that there could be North Taiwan and South Taiwan by the same logic, it could actually make things a lot harder and that’s what scares me the most. Let’s hope that there is no war and let’s hope that China doesn't do something stupid.

This is not stupidity ... Two nuances can "play a game" here:
1. The goals of the party = the goals of the people. And if the party said “everyone should be under“ one wing, ”then it will be so. Otherwise, the party that promised and did not fulfill the promise will not be trusted, and this is unacceptable
2. In the event of an increase in internal tensions in China (and it seems that this is coming, due to an overheated and inflated economy), like any other totalitarian ruler, Xi Jinping, can use the classic move - "a small victorious war." All totalitarian rulers do this. Some people may even blow up houses with their citizens to increase their rating, I hope the Chinese ruler is not like that. But Taiwan can become such a "bargaining chip", the capture of which will reduce tensions, raise the status of the party and its leader to the skies.

it already is a bargaining chip for the westerners. it's only the westerners that claimed Taiwan is a country but they all know it's not. for it to be a country it has to have a consulate of US or any other country but it does not have. Taiwan has been part of China for centuries, it only breaks for some time.

China has a lot to lose when war comes so they may also be afraid of it. But they need Taiwan to have everything their advantage, there is got to be one that will give in. as of now, we can see China is choking the supply chain, this is a different kind of war.

[DOH!]

I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon. Although it is true that China could easily take Taiwan by force if they intend to do it, China is also very much aware how it won't happen without fighting against allied forces as well. And that wouldn't be easy for them. That is a war that wouldn't be worth it. Not only would China fail, they will be humiliated.

As to its potential effect to Bitcoin, I guess there won't be much unless it will become a full-blown war, which I don't think will happen. The China-Taiwan tension has been around for some time. The tension rises and falls but it never escalated into a war.

Political issues are practically excluding restrictions on bitcoin.
- The problem is that Taiwan is a very important place geographically for China. If they can be unified, the road to south-east Asia will be very "beneficial" - because they will control and dominate a sea of ​​Southeast Asia that is very fertile and open to resources but I I don't think there will be an inhumane war of force that will happen at least that is the preservation of the position for the warring parties including the support of the US.

[FairUser]

It will certainly affect the crypto market not only BTC, the tension between Taiwan and China over the pastime I see is only time for China to take the action they are thinking. We all understand what Taiwan has to attract the attention of such leading powers.
IMO, China will soon become the number one economic power when China is gradually wanting to control the entire region area. Perhaps what we don't expect is that the war will still go on, and then the contagion effects will play out in a way that requires the initiation of war.

[paxmao]

...
it already is a bargaining chip for the westerners. it's only the westerners that claimed Taiwan is a country but they all know it's not. for it to be a country it has to have a consulate of US or any other country but it does not have. Taiwan has been part of China for centuries, it only breaks for some time.

China has a lot to lose when war comes so they may also be afraid of it. But they need Taiwan to have everything their advantage, there is got to be one that will give in. as of now, we can see China is choking the supply chain, this is a different kind of war.

A few corrections:

1. You mean, only the "westerners" and the citizens of Taiwan, which have massively voted in favour of pro-independence.
2. You say that to be a country has to have a consulate of the US. Yet Taiwan does now have a consulate in US. So by your own argument, it is what?
3. China is choking the supply chain - nope, the supply chain has a huge backlog, but is not just due to China.

China has successfully taken Hong Kong, after many promises of "one state, two systems". That move that apparently was bold means that Taiwan can now only be taken by force.

...

We know Silicon Valley in the US has the capability to manufacture and develop semiconductors and electronic chips... so they will just have to step up their operations and expand their capacity...

Seriously, that could happen.  There are so many people out of work right now, whether it's because they're choosing to be unemployed or not, and I can imagine manufacturing making a comeback in the US.  It's been a very long time since the US manufactured its own electronic components, but stranger things have happened.

As I said on the original post, creating that capability takes years. We are not talking processors or GPUs or AI chips. It is about the basic semiconductor "cookie".

[Mauser]

This is a hard question. First of all Taiwan is a very small island and would have no chance in a war against China, only with international support Taiwan could hold out and engage in peace deals. If there were American, Japanese and maybe other Nato countries involved in Taiwan than it would also mean these countries would enact heavy sanctions against China. This would likely mean a collapse of international trade. The whole world is relying on cheap products from China. And China is relying heavily on their export sector. So after the initial shock to probably all asset classes except high security assets, it would be a good time to buy. I don't think we will see a long war between Taiwan and China, either they will annex Taiwan quickly or have to back off.

[beerlover]

As I said on the original post, creating that capability takes years. We are not talking processors or GPUs or AI chips. It is about the basic semiconductor "cookie".

You are saying it takes years and maybe even a decade, and you are saying that it costs a ton of money to do something like that. However I wonder, is there money to be made from it? Because it doesn't matter how expensive something is, it depends on the return. If I have spend as much as 100 billion dollars for something like a factory and resources, I would still do it if I am making over 10 billion dollars a year, because that is 10% return every year. You are saying it is a very expensive thing but it could be done everywhere around the world if there was money to be made from it.

I am sure it is not a very bad business where they make a loss all the time, I am sure they are making a profit, but maybe it is not making too much profit? If it is making enough profit then we should be seeing more and more factories since it is money to be made.

[DrBeer]

....
it already is a bargaining chip for the westerners. it's only the westerners that claimed Taiwan is a country but they all know it's not. for it to be a country it has to have a consulate of US or any other country but it does not have. Taiwan has been part of China for centuries, it only breaks for some time.
China has a lot to lose when war comes so they may also be afraid of it. But they need Taiwan to have everything their advantage, there is got to be one that will give in. as of now, we can see China is choking the supply chain, this is a different kind of war.

Both agree and disagree. If we talk about Europe, then everything does not matter. The main thing for them is that no one touches them, that money flows into their pockets, even from bloody regimes. And don't give a damn about the whole world ...
If we talk about the United States, they have a slightly different view. They do not care who or what Taiwan, the main thing is that they know that injustice is hanging over him. This means that the United States must help restore justice

But seriously, the problem is quite real. When Russia started a war against Ukraine and annexed Crimea from Ukraine, and China was one of the countries that chose a passive position when voting on this crime, I said then - this is not just that. Some perceived this as support for Russia (if they didn’t accuse them of a crime, it means they supported it, this logic lives on in Russia), but in fact, China simply didn’t recognize such a situation as a crime, so that there would be no precedent, and any actions with foreign territories will not happen. contradict China's position in the world. Whether it will be Taiwan, or the historical territories of Siberia and the Far East of Russia, or both, no one will poke a claim in China in the face, what do you consider an annexation of foreign territories to be a crime, and you yourself are doing it ?!

[Rufsilf]

I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon. Although it is true that China could easily take Taiwan by force if they intend to do it, China is also very much aware how it won't happen without fighting against allied forces as well. And that wouldn't be easy for them. That is a war that wouldn't be worth it. Not only would China fail, they will be humiliated.

As to its potential effect to Bitcoin, I guess there won't be much unless it will become a full-blown war, which I don't think will happen. The China-Taiwan tension has been around for some time. The tension rises and falls but it never escalated into a war.

It may not go into war since the US told the news that they are not looking to make war but only to assist Taiwan not to be invaded.

But China has become aggressive in response to the fleet surrounding Taiwan which includes US and EU ships. They flew over Taiwan's airspace with more than 50 fighter jets recently, they reasoned it's an exercise for their independence which dates back to 1 October.

These countries are just finding ways to see how each would react and who will first shoot. American submarine also bumped into something under South China Sea, the report is just not very clear but they were talking about drones underwater or something.

Yes, this it's true that China always trespassing laws wether if it's in sea or air and yet they always have an excuse that they are just exercising their rights and China keeps on bullying neighbouring countries like Philippines and Taiwan, it is almost safe to say that China wants war but doesn't want to make the first move to declare war along other countries.

If a war will happen then not only bitcoin is affected, it's a global issue because it's happening in South China Sea where almost 70% of the worlds cargo, crude and LNG travels along this strait. As of bitcoin, I think the value would eventually rise because if US helps taiwan against China then their currency will start to drop and many people will start to convert their respective currencies to bitcoin as the lose trust in their fiat.

[Fortify]

More than a rumour, this is becoming a Heavy Metal live streaming at 4 a.m. China is building up their military to the point in which they could actually enact their desire of taking effectively over the government of Taiwan. As most of you know, as of now, Taiwan is considered a "rebel territory" by China, "that is part of China". Taiwan is also part of the strategy of the US and its allies in the Northern Pacific (Japan, South Korea). Taiwan is nothing less than a territory in dispute between China and US (not exactly, as the US does not argue that is US territory).

So, nothing to worry about, just another quarrel between the superpower and the possibly next superpower. But there is a little factor that makes Taiwan a very interesting place, and that is called TSMC  AKA Taiwan Semiconductors. This company (along with Samsung) manufacture most of the semiconductors worldwide and they have technologies that are even a decade ahead of competitors.

What do you think could happen if a proxy war for Taiwan takes place in the next years? As a hint, today a few car manufacturing plants have reduced production due to lack of semiconductors. Many other industries are also affected. Imagine that TSMC is unable to continue production or that factories are destroyed in the process. This would mean a global slowdown and a crisis that may dwarf COVID.

BTW, a semiconductor plant is nothing you can improvise. The investment is huge, the technical difficulties extreme and building times quite long.

My advice, if you hear winds of war, buy. You know what.

It will be a sad day for peace in the world if this ever comes through to fruition. China (or more specifically the CCP) seems like nothing except a big bully that needs a powerful punch to the nose in order to learn some respect. There has been a very delicate equilibrium in the world for many decades and countries where people are free have lead that innovation for the most part. While China might be the factory of the world it is structurally not very innovative because good or original ideas are less likely to succeed in an environment of such authoritarian suppression. Honestly, if Taiwan equipped itself with nukes in self defense that would seem a justifiable response to any attempts at evasion. China has also supported the heavily erratic North Korea in the same manner (acquiring nuclear weapons) so it would not be unprecedented and simply a "favor" returned.

[bekti3]

I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon. Although it is true that China could easily take Taiwan by force if they intend to do it, China is also very much aware how it won't happen without fighting against allied forces as well. And that wouldn't be easy for them. That is a war that wouldn't be worth it. Not only would China fail, they will be humiliated.

As to its potential effect to Bitcoin, I guess there won't be much unless it will become a full-blown war, which I don't think will happen. The China-Taiwan tension has been around for some time. The tension rises and falls but it never escalated into a war.

It may not go into war since the US told the news that they are not looking to make war but only to assist Taiwan not to be invaded.

But China has become aggressive in response to the fleet surrounding Taiwan which includes US and EU ships. They flew over Taiwan's airspace with more than 50 fighter jets recently, they reasoned it's an exercise for their independence which dates back to 1 October.

These countries are just finding ways to see how each would react and who will first shoot. American submarine also bumped into something under South China Sea, the report is just not very clear but they were talking about drones underwater or something.

This is a war of nerves that is quite strong because there are so many countries that could be involved in this.
Regarding the jets you said, I think this is one of the tactics that when one country loses and is provoked, they will be blamed.
and when that happens, a full-scale war will occur that will involve the warring countries

[Argoo]

It is unlikely that China will dare to attack Taiwan anytime soon. The United States has already warned that if this happens, they will not leave Taiwan in trouble. Now almost all countries have a lot of problems, and above all, a common problem is the coronavirus. There are many hotbeds of military tension. However, let's imagine that a regional war broke out in this region. How will this affect cryptocurrency? During the hostilities in this region, real estate depreciates, physical money and values ​​become difficult to take out of this region and they also depreciate. The cryptocurrency will be very convenient to invest in it all that will depreciate. In such a situation, it should grow rapidly in value.

[V-t.Ester]

It’s an absolutely controversial situation between three countries. Taiwan is so small that it can’t do anything in case if China and USA will make a deal with each other. Moreover Taiwan is an independent country only because USA supports it and in case of any war conflict, USA will duly repulse to China (possibly only this is stopping China from seize power in Taiwan by force). It’s hard to predict how all this situation can influence on BTC’s price. Perhaps even no how.

[paxmao]

I recently learned that Taiwan Semiconductors is planning to become much less Taiwan and more Semiconductors. In fact is more in the line of becoming US Semiconductors as the management is planning to reduce the obvious geopolitical risks they currently have with a progressively more militarised  China altering the balance of the region to the point of having companies based in Taiwan willing to relocate at a huge expense.

[cheezcarls]

Maybe it would impact Bitcoin's price on a short term basis if in case they've escalated it into war. After successfully taking over Hong Kong people's freedom rights and implemented security law, Taiwan is next on their radar claiming that they should be unified.

US and Japan are there to help Taiwan just in case something bad happens when China decided to attack at least once. I also don't like China taking over the West Philippine Sea and the US are also backing up the Philippines for that.

[Snappycoco]

The invasion could trigger a World War that would probably lead to world economic crisis meaning price of the market would surge down drastically. I think massive sell off will happen and the impact could be horrendous on Cryptocurrency market as a whole. War between Democracy and Communist ideology would end millions of lives and if not solved peacefully, it would be the end of civilization.

[Sithara007]

The invasion could trigger a World War that would probably lead to world economic crisis meaning price of the market would surge down drastically. I think massive sell off will happen and the impact could be horrendous on Cryptocurrency market as a whole. War between Democracy and Communist ideology would end millions of lives and if not solved peacefully, it would be the end of civilization.

There are two questions here - 1. Will there be a world war, in case China invades Taiwan. 2. In case there is a world war, what will be its impact on Bitcoin. The second question is easier to answer. Because the governments will resort to unlimited printing of banknotes and this will push the inflation rates to sky-high levels. However, the answer to the first question is not clear. Personally, I don't think that Biden is strong enough to defend Taiwan, in case the PLA decides to invade that country. If Trump was still there, then there would have been a chance.