After a few months of China crackdown on mining. Check it out!

[tranthidung]

• Source:  Cambrigde Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index
• With the great hashrate migration, since May, the distribution of Bitcoin hashrate on the globe has changed a lot.
• There are some countries which have increases of hashrate such as the United States, Russia, Kazakhstan. China has a share fall to 0.
• More decentralization, at least geographically, more ownership of hashrates.
• Good or bad. Please share your thoughts about this trend.

* Note: In graphs, I made a typo: Perent, it should be Percent.

To help you more easily to see chronologically changes, I break it down by country, over months.

[Charles-Tim]

Nothing like China can take over bitcoin or bitcoin network again, it appeared to novices before that China can be in control of bitcoin, but bitcoin hashrate increased back as many miners left China into another country to mine bitcoin while some mining pools especially in United State increased their mining hashrate.

What this just revealed is that if a country do not support bitcoin, some other countries are supporting it, if mining bitcoin is not allowed in a country or banned, other countries will see it as an opportunity to encourage mining and take advantage of the opportunity.

I will wish many other countries to encourage mining so that USA will not be the new China so that the hashes generation is not congested in a single country.

[NeuroticFish]

While the numbers do look impressive, have hard times believing that mainland China has indeed 0 hash rate. I also don't think that the data is that accurate.
And I've looked at the link you posted and everything depends greatly on what the miners are reporting (and whether they use any proxy or such) and what mining pools are part of the reporting/sample.

So while the numbers may not be that accurate, the trend is clear: everybody who could has moved out of China. We are also back to December/January hash rate. Not the May maximum, but will get there too. Machines still need to be relocated and some may have been also stopped for good.

Goodbye China  

[avikz]

I believe that's what was expected after the ban by the Chinese government. But frankly I didn't expect China to slip to 0 but definitely expected a drop. It's amazing and positive for the bitcoin network. Too much dependency on a authoritarian nation and ruin the entire bitcoin network. I am happy that the chance is now gone.

But China can quickly make up for it if the government allows bitcoin mining in future. So I just hope that the Chinese government stays firm with their decision and let the bitcoin network flourish.

[stompix]

So while the numbers may not be that accurate, the trend is clear: everybody who could has moved out of China. We are also back to December/January hash rate. Not the May maximum, but will get there too. Machines still need to be relocated and some may have been also stopped for good.

But with a price per BTC and a revenue per TH nearly 50% higher and with the hashrate staying flat for this period, with the slight possibility of going down, the pace is now 99.55 of what it should be.

With this energy crisis, I doubt we will see the hash rate back to May levels this year despite the price being close to the same levels.
China had a ton of cheap and very cheap power, you will never be able to compete with that unless you use the same resources and coal is treated like rabies in the rest of the world.

I will wish many other countries to encourage mining so that USA will not be the new China so that the hashes generation is not congested in a single country.

No chance of that happening, companies in the US have a lot of orders for the next year and as long the authorities let them still run coal and flare gas there is nothing stopping them from going over the share China held in the past.

[hugeblack]

It is impossible to believe that mining in China has fallen to zero, even when the government is tough on something, the compliance rate will not be zero.
miners will go to places with cheap electricity and abundant profit, regardless of whether it is in China or any other country that provides them with these advantages, but the advantage in China lies in the low energy fees and obtaining equipment and equipment quickly.


In general, if this data is accurate, even if at a low percentage, Bitcoin mining decentralization looks good.

[SFR10]

• Good or bad. Please share your thoughts about this trend.

I will wish many other countries to encourage mining so that USA will not be the new China so that the hashes generation is not congested in a single country.

Same here! I don't mind seeing the US having more hash rate than other countries on that list, but having said that, I really don't like seeing around 1/3rd ^{[or probably more by now]} of the hash rate being in a single country ^{[doesn't matter which one]}!
^{- If someday, the US decides to follow in China's footsteps, the impact that it could have it'd be a lot more than what China had when it started the bans for the first time!}

But China can quickly make up for it if the government allows bitcoin mining in future.

Even if that happens, I don't think most of the miners would go back ^{[it's not worth the risk]}.

[hannahB4]

When I read the news concerning the China ban I was a little bit concerned about what will become of bitcoin but I was surprised about the positive turn bitcoin took even after the news and all which shows that Bitcoin is here to thrive be there any ban from any Country.

[dkbit98]

One interesting thing that we all know is that most of the top mining pools are still coming from China, even if they are not physically showing location in mainland China.
Everyone knows that F2Pool, Antpool, ViaBTC and few other pools have majority of hashrate, and they are probably using some VPN or proxy to redirected IP addresses.
We don't have any big new or unknown mining pools so I don't think anything really changed despite numbers this Cambrigde website is showing.

[tranthidung]

One interesting thing that we all know is that most of the top mining pools are still coming from China, even if they are not physically showing location in mainland China.
Everyone knows that F2Pool, Antpool, ViaBTC and few other pools have majority of hashrate, and they are probably using some VPN or proxy to redirected IP addresses.
We don't have any big new or unknown mining pools so I don't think anything really changed despite numbers this Cambrigde website is showing.

It is impossible to believe that mining in China has fallen to zero, even when the government is tough on something, the compliance rate will not be zero.

So while the numbers may not be that accurate, the trend is clear: everybody who could has moved out of China.

I agree that we can not verify those data, not only for China but also for other countries. It is unbelievable that all mining farms located in China mainland turn off their ASICs.

From the peak (13 May 2021 - 197.6 Ehash/s) to the bottom (28 June 2021 - 68 Ehash/s), it is a 65.6% drop of hashrate. After that hashrate recovers a lot and we can not know where the newly added hashrate come from, with contribution of China or without China.

The only thing we know is Bitcoin mining industry is growing and expanded to other countries, more geographical locations, more decentralized.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3y

We can not verify things are happening in China now but with the FUD history of China mainland, I believe when their government solve issues of energy supply, they will allow Bitcoin mining again.

Even if that happens, I don't think most of the miners would go back ^{[it's not worth the risk]}.

It is same for exchanges, they gradually to migrate out of China mainland, years ago. The latest attempt to make more regulations and barriers for crypto transactions in China mainland only give crypto exchanges more reasons to move their main officies out of China.

So miners can turn on their ASICs if the ban on Bitcoin mining is removed but I agree that more miners and mining companies will try to decentralize their own risks by moving to other countries.

[tranthidung]

Updates with raw EHS by countries

• The USA.: Increase from 15.7 EHS (Jan) to 42.7 EHS (Aug)
• Kazakhstan.: Increase from 9.2 EHS (Jan) to 21.9 EHS (Aug)
• Russia Federation: Increase from 10.3 EHS (Jan) to 13.6 EHS (Aug)
• Canada: Increase from 1.3 EHS (Jan) to 11.5 EHS (Aug) - If the data is accurate and if Canada maintains such growth rate, it will join top 3 soon.

[Poker Player]

While the numbers do look impressive, have hard times believing that mainland China has indeed 0 hash rate.

It is impossible to believe that mining in China has fallen to zero

I do believe it. I understand that it has fallen to almost 0%, and that by approximation on the graph it is zero. I can believe that some individual person is still mining, but the big farms? Not a chance. It would be easy for the Chinese government to detect large light consumption, plus surely they had already detected where the farms were before. Why go to another part of China to continue mining if they can go to a country where it is legal?

Apart from the fact that normally nobody wants to have problems with the government for exercising a forbidden activity, but even less with the authoritarian Chinese government.

[tranthidung]

I can believe that some individual person is still mining, but the big farms? Not a chance. It would be easy for the Chinese government to detect large light consumption, plus surely they had already detected where the farms were before. Why go to another part of China to continue mining if they can go to a country where it is legal?

Apart from the fact that normally nobody wants to have problems with the government for exercising a forbidden activity, but even less with the authoritarian Chinese government.

As said, China has been in a crisis of energy shortage hence they have to implement serious regulations on Bitcoin mining to make sure energy supply is enough for other industries that involve more in the national wealth.

When it is fixed, they will see no reason to keep the ban on Bitcoin mining that is not harmful for the nation.

• China's Energy Crisis Is Hitting Everything From iPhones to Milk

[pooya87]

China has a share fall to 0.
More decentralization,

You can not call the sum of all this "more decentralization" since one country (regardless of personal feelings about that country) has no miners anymore. If anything this event decreased decentralization since countries that already had a share of the total hashrate now have more share while China has 0.

P.S. I doubt the accuracy of the first chart that shows China had about 75% of the hashrate in Sep 19.

[o48o]

I would have thought that some of them end up mining in secrecy, with solar power or something... But as their hashrate is zero now, has the markets been flooded with cheap chinese mining equipment lately? I haven't been following that scene.

[tranthidung]

You can not call the sum of all this "more decentralization" since one country (regardless of personal feelings about that country) has no miners anymore. If anything this event decreased decentralization since countries that already had a share of the total hashrate now have more share while China has 0.

I meant there are more hashrate in other countries especially the USA and Canada. Hashrate grows up too fast in those countries. I meant it is geographical decentralization that does not equal to the decentralization of hashrate in ownership.

The percent of hashrate from the USA does not increase too much, because there are other countries have increase in hashrate. If the trend in other countries keep going and bigger than from the USA, the percent from USA. will fall down. The USA will likely not a second dominating nation like China.

From Apr to Aug, assumtion - those stats are accurate.

• USA: 26.5 to 42.7 EHS or 16.9% to 35.4%
• Canada: 4.7 to 11.5 EHS or 3% to 9.6%

P.S. I doubt the accuracy of the first chart that shows China had about 75% of the hashrate in Sep 19.

I am not sure, but possibly if we know in the past few years, there are some pools in China that sum up to more than 51% of network hashrate, so a few smaller pools can contribute to bring it up to 75%. Obviously I know pools and ownership are different if we talk about origin of hashrate.

[DaveF]

For the big industrial farms yes, they probably all left China or are in the process of leaving.
But they are owned by the same people, the hardware is now someplace else the control of the hardware is the same.

For the small 1 or 2 miner people (home / hobby) they are still there. Although the internet in china is heavily regulated by the great firewall of china as it's called, there are enough holes in it to get enough data through to mine. Either through VPNs or other proxies that hide the traffic. Will hurt profitability due to stale shares but it's still there.

Slightly OT, but GPU - altcoin mining, has probably not changed much. There has been almost 0 uptick on used graphic card availability so it's not like people are turning off their rigs and selling the cards.

-Dave

[Argoo]

For the big industrial farms yes, they probably all left China or are in the process of leaving.
But they are owned by the same people, the hardware is now someplace else the control of the hardware is the same.

For the small 1 or 2 miner people (home / hobby) they are still there. Although the internet in china is heavily regulated by the great firewall of china as it's called there are enough holes in it to get enough data through to mine. Either through VPNs or other proxies that hide the traffic. Will hurt profitability due to stale shares but it's still there.

Slightly OT, but GPU - altcoin mining, has probably not changed much. There has been almost 0 uptick on used graphic card availability so it's not like people are turning off their rigs.

-Dave

Of course, it is unrealistic that in such a large country like China with such a dense population in such a short time, even after the ban, Bitcoin mining fell to zero. Small miners, of course, still work there, but in the shadows. Considering the fact that negative news on cryptocurrency constantly came from the government of China, one of the channels of such news has already been blocked. Therefore, in general, this is not bad for cryptocurrency.
In addition, the cryptocurrency market quite calmly took the information of the People's Bank of China about the illegality of all transactions in cryptocurrency. We see that bitcoin has now risen to almost 58,000 dollars, and altcoins are also growing in price. If the Chinese government still has a negative attitude towards cryptocurrency, it would be better if there are fewer levers of negative influence on it.

[Quickseller]

While the numbers do look impressive, have hard times believing that mainland China has indeed 0 hash rate.

It is unlikely that China has no miners inside its mainland. In order to hide mining activity from the CCP, any remaining miners will have to hide their Chinese IP addresses.

With the above being said, any major mining operations are going to shut down their operations and either attempt to sell their equipment overseas, or move their equipment overseas once they have the appropriate infrastructure in place. Mom and Pop mining operations have less risk of being targeted by the government, and they may still be mining via a VPN, and properly wont be otherwise investigated.

To those that are asking why the CCP would implement this kind of ban, the first reason is social control, the use of bitcoin gives people freedom, and the CCP does not want its people to have freedom, the second reason is capital control, if Chinese citizens cannot withdraw their money from mainland China, they will ultimately need to "invest" it in CCP approved banks.

[davis196]

China hashrate dropping from 41% to 0% in one month(June-July 2021) seems suspicious to me.
I wonder what will happen to the Chinese companies that produce mining hardware,like Bitmain?
Will they keep producing mining hardware and export it outside China?
The concerns about the mining hashrate being concentrated in one country were false.Bitcoin was OK,when the vast majority of the mining was located in China.China never had any control over Bitcoin.
Now,Bitcoin is still doing fine,with the hashrate being re-distributed among several countries.

[pooya87]

I am not sure, but possibly if we know in the past few years, there are some pools in China that sum up to more than 51% of network hashrate, so a few smaller pools can contribute to bring it up to 75%. Obviously I know pools and ownership are different if we talk about origin of hashrate.

Exactly.
Another reason to doubt the charts (specifically first one) is that the percentage drops to zero. If we justify the initial huge hashrate by saying it is counting pool hashrate then the end of it is wrong since even today the sum of hashrate coming from Chinese pools is not zero. In fact the 2 pools F2Pool and AntPool have a total of 33.56% between them according to btc.com.

[Quickseller]

I am not sure, but possibly if we know in the past few years, there are some pools in China that sum up to more than 51% of network hashrate, so a few smaller pools can contribute to bring it up to 75%. Obviously I know pools and ownership are different if we talk about origin of hashrate.

Exactly.

The underlying data is from the originating IP address of the miners connecting to the pools, not the pools themselves.

If someone connects to a pool with a Chinese IP address, they will show as being a miner from china. If someone from china uses a VPN located in the US to connect to their pool, they will show as being located in the US.

[Kakmakr]

So from what I have heard.... Russia has invested a lot of money into Crypto currency mining and I believe a lot of the Chinese mining operations have relocated to USA and Canada?

I also believe that the zero mining operations in China might be wrong and that someone might still be mining on a very small scale, from their basement or mining Alt coins from their GPU's. (It will never just go to zero.... those stats are being manipulated)

[so98nn]

Finally something good about China. Lolz. I mean in perspective of rest of the world or non-China who always thought China could manipulate the market severely and destroy the decentralisation any time soon. The whole thing has turned upside down for the China if above values are accurate.

One thing is clear, China will see great amount of reduced income in their country. Just imagine almost 30+ % of mining power and at the current rate the bitcoin income could have been enormous!! It’s literally shut off for China in blink of an eye. Plus I’m not sure what are they gonna do about the hardware, rented mining places, and what not. This is serious damage to them.

[tranthidung]

The underlying data is from the originating IP address of the miners connecting to the pools, not the pools themselves.

If someone connects to a pool with a Chinese IP address, they will show as being a miner from china. If someone from china uses a VPN located in the US to connect to their pool, they will show as being located in the US.

This. CBECI has three big assumptions in their methodology

• Assumption 1: IP addresses of mining facility operators are an accurate indicator of hashrate location.
• Assumption 2: data provided by participating mining pools constitutes a representative sample of Bitcoin’s total geographic hashrate distribution.
• Assumption 3: the available sample of Chinese province data is representative of the total hashrate distribution within China.

The accuracy can be affected by

• Underlying IP address and other sensitive data from mining pools that CBECI can not access;
• Representative of sample size for global hashrate
• Representative of sample size for China

One thing is clear, China will see great amount of reduced income in their country.

They - government - can only get tax and power bills from miners there. They can increase power base price or increase tax rate but their priority now is energy supply for the country, for more essential industries. Most of income will be for Bitcoin miners, not government or the nation.

[pooya87]

The underlying data is from the originating IP address of the miners connecting to the pools, not the pools themselves.

Correct but I haven't seen mining pools that reveal their miners' IP addresses. That would be a violation of their privacy and more importantly security. I also haven't seen any mining pool releasing general stats about their miners' locations, etc. I would love to see them if they exist and anyone can provide a link (from mining pool website itself not third parties).

[wissy]

Looks like Chinese government shoot themselves in the knew with anti mining regulations. It was logical, that miners will move to other countries and pay for electricity and rent there, while bitcoin will continue to grow. Looks like Russia will be the winner of this year crypto regulations.

[kryptqnick]

I think enough has been mentioned here to doubt the accuracy of the data. I believe that it's accurate for most countries, but not for those where cryptos are officially restricted, and China is the most suspicious case. I mean, people can't just stop operating all at once. If the hashrate decreased by half or even by three quarters, I'd probably believe it. But going to zero? No way. Didn't mining farms often operate in stealth mode even prior to all these restrictions? And I tend to believe that many still do, but of course they'll try to hide the information about their location, given that it's not allowed in China anymore.

[Ararbermas]

Well thanks god they're zero now because there's no more problems in the future that will emerging from them, or should i say they don't have power to manipulate the market using their negative views about it. Lol Indeed there are some bad news again from them but seems nothing happened, so probably they're useless now..for them for sure it's a bad move because of these results, but for everyone its a good decision..  

[yazher]

That was fast and they can remove it in just a span of less than a year but the interesting part is they actually managed to removed it completely and obviously the miners have migrated to the US and other countries where they think they will be there for a longer period. Hope that they found some good to settle their things and start to support the crypto market again with their resources and equioments.

[michellee]

Yes, it is. If the miners move to other countries, the government will regret it because if they can control the miners, that can be another revenue for the country. But some miners already move and continued in the mining process as we see that in some countries, the hashrate increases and China has 0. But I do not believe if China has a 0 hashrate for the mining process. So no matter if China is in the bitcoin or not, bitcoin will continue to grow. Hopefully, China government will realize this and will change its policy.

[Quickseller]

The underlying data is from the originating IP address of the miners connecting to the pools, not the pools themselves.

Correct but I haven't seen mining pools that reveal their miners' IP addresses. That would be a violation of their privacy and more importantly security. I also haven't seen any mining pool releasing general stats about their miners' locations, etc. I would love to see them if they exist and anyone can provide a link (from mining pool website itself not third parties).

You can review the methodology the CBECI uses. This is not from the mining pools themselves, but is from an entity associated with Cambridge business school, which I think is reputable enough to believe they are not simply making up data. They have been publishing this data for over a year now, and I think if pools were not actually providing this information to CBECI, they would have said something by now.

[ven7net]

As for the situation in China, namely, the alleged withdrawal from the BTC market, or rather, the departure of miners, I think, can be associated with the current situation in the energy market in the world. Of course, the fact that the possibility of mining BTC is becoming more decentralized is very good, but I see that in this case the situation is slightly different. The withdrawal of BTC miners from China is an opportunity for China to survive in the energy market. Perhaps at first glance this is not visible, but more and more I agree that all this was calculated and planned in advance.

[pooya87]

You can review the methodology the CBECI uses. This is not from the mining pools themselves, but is from an entity associated with Cambridge business school, which I think is reputable enough to believe they are not simply making up data. They have been publishing this data for over a year now, and I think if pools were not actually providing this information to CBECI, they would have said something by now.

It is not as if data fabrication is uncommon in academia. In fact they were caught a couple of times and had to pull the articles
Besides there are about 20 different mining pools located in many different countries, it is near impossible to work with all of them in secret to get data that has never been available to public. I don't know about you but I only accept information that I can verify myself.

[wiss19]

Their government has finally cracked down on cryptocurrency mining. That has been their plan right from time, although at times it got really confusing as to what they really need, whether they wanted to ban cryptocurrency or not, because they kept talking about this year’s, and after they have said you’re still going to see something that will make you say “oh, it’s not banned yet”.

It has continued like this for years in China until now. I guess they got more serious about it because they have released their own cryptocurrency which is the digital Yuan, and have decided to stop others so that their citizens will adopt their CBDC.

[Myleschetty]

The good thing about the Chinese ban on Bitcoin is that it always open another door of opportunities to another player in the field and I could remember the time they place a ban on Bitcoin in year 2018 if I can remember correctly, a lot of experienced investors make huge profit through and this is what we also see again when the ban Bitcoin mining.

In the meantime, we will see if they are going to get in additional income taxes after the Bitcoin mining

[hatshepsut93]

If a ban on mining can effectively reduce hashrate of a country to zero, then this is an argument against the statement that Bitcoin can't be shut down by government. If all those top countries decided to ban Bitcoin, where would the miners move? To countries with a fraction of electricity producing capabilities? That would mean Bitcoin's network would take a large hashrate hit, which means reduced security. So while Bitcoin can't be literally shut down, it can be very seriously harmed by governments, if they decided to act against it together.

[tranthidung]

If a ban on mining can effectively reduce hashrate of a country to zero, then this is an argument against the statement that Bitcoin can't be shut down by government.

Exactly. If the data is accurate about hashrate from China, this shows the power of government to destroy anything they want. You are right with this point.

If all those top countries decided to ban Bitcoin, where would the miners move? To countries with a fraction of electricity producing capabilities?

However, you are missing a point, top countries are different and most of them are Western countries that are totally different than China. In China, government controls all, there is no separations of power like in Wester countries. In Western countries, governments will face with serious demonstrations from their citizens that might lead to uncertainty in society that they don't want to face with.

That would mean Bitcoin's network would take a large hashrate hit, which means reduced security. So while Bitcoin can't be literally shut down, it can be very seriously harmed by governments, if they decided to act against it together.

Yes, but only when Bitcoin is small, cryptocurrency is small. Now they are big and it's too late for them to shut crypto industry down.

[Quickseller]

You can review the methodology the CBECI uses. This is not from the mining pools themselves, but is from an entity associated with Cambridge business school, which I think is reputable enough to believe they are not simply making up data. They have been publishing this data for over a year now, and I think if pools were not actually providing this information to CBECI, they would have said something by now.

It is not as if data fabrication is uncommon in academia. In fact they were caught a couple of times and had to pull the articles
Besides there are about 20 different mining pools located in many different countries, it is near impossible to work with all of them in secret to get data that has never been available to public. I don't know about you but I only accept information that I can verify myself.

The project references in the OP is not collecting any data in secret. It has named the mining pools they are receiving data from, and has used data validation techniques to confirm information is correct. It then makes the assumption that the data from the select pools are representative of the population of miners.

I would be surprised if any of the pools individually have data that is substantially different than the others. If you have a specific reason to doubt the information, I would encourage you to speak up, but I don’t think it is reasonable to make the assumption it is wrong.

[wajik-tempe]

If a ban on mining can effectively reduce hashrate of a country to zero, then this is an argument against the statement that Bitcoin can't be shut down by government. If all those top countries decided to ban Bitcoin, where would the miners move? To countries with a fraction of electricity producing capabilities? That would mean Bitcoin's network would take a large hashrate hit, which means reduced security. So while Bitcoin can't be literally shut down, it can be very seriously harmed by governments, if they decided to act against it together.

Does this will affect the price if really happen ? if most countries are banning bitcoin and those countries are still available to mine are the country with high electricity bills. That means it's harder to got more bitcoin and ofcourse the price will be so much higher because the supply will be stuck and the demand keep increasing. I'd love to see that happen actually 

[franky1]

and yet some pools official data is still showing they are solving blocks from farms in china

https://pool.btc.com/en-US/pool-stats
(scroll to bottom)
8 blocks by just this pool are recorded to be mined in china on the 16th of october.
same day
2 blocks US
3 blocks EU

so it seems china is still on their record as being majority mining

[Dhaniii]

Finally something good about China. Lolz. I mean in perspective of rest of the world or non-China who always thought China could manipulate the market severely and destroy the decentralisation any time soon. The whole thing has turned upside down for the China if above values are accurate.

One thing is clear, China will see great amount of reduced income in their country. Just imagine almost 30+ % of mining power and at the current rate the bitcoin income could have been enormous!! It’s literally shut off for China in blink of an eye. Plus I’m not sure what are they gonna do about the hardware, rented mining places, and what not. This is serious damage to them.

their actions have cost themselves a disservice except they are just making issues to bring down the market temporarily and they start adopting bitcoins secretly in countless numbers. in that way they can dominate the markets and finance around the world. I don't think the Chinese are stupid but are playing with aces and creating markets under their control.

[hatshepsut93]

However, you are missing a point, top countries are different and most of them are Western countries that are totally different than China. In China, government controls all, there is no separations of power like in Wester countries. In Western countries, governments will face with serious demonstrations from their citizens that might lead to uncertainty in society that they don't want to face with.

Serious demonstrations? I very much doubt that, only a few percent of people use Bitcoin, and for any sort of protest to have a chance of success, it must be supported by at least 20-30% of the population. The thing that can more effectively stop such ban is political lobbying done by business that is interested in crypto, like exchanges, ETFs, companies. This is why the ongoing institutional adoption is a positive thing.

[tranthidung]

Serious demonstrations? I very much doubt that, only a few percent of people use Bitcoin, and for any sort of protest to have a chance of success, it must be supported by at least 20-30% of the population. The thing that can more effectively stop such ban is political lobbying done by business that is interested in crypto, like exchanges, ETFs, companies. This is why the ongoing institutional adoption is a positive thing.

I meant in the future, with bigger adoption in general population and with more investment and involvement from institutes or corporations.

I think in the future, the demographics of Bitcoiners will become younger and it will be unstoppable trend.

• Bitcoiners' Demographic over years
• According to Coin.dance, the Bitcoin community engagement by age as follows: 18-24: 16.65%, and 25-34: 41.35%

[stompix]

and yet some pools official data is still showing they are solving blocks from farms in china

https://pool.btc.com/en-US/pool-stats
(scroll to bottom)
8 blocks by just this pool are recorded to be mined in china on the 16th of october.
so it seems china is still on their record as being majority mining

Still, having trouble differentiating pols from miners and servers from nodes?
Do you really think those servers who how many poeple mine in Beijing?
You could do an experiment, set your miners to BTC pool, and check where...oh wait, sorry! I forgot you don't mine!
I was going to ask you how on earth there are no blocks mined from Philipines or Iran or Canada or Australia there but that would mean demanding too much.

I meant in the future, with bigger adoption in general population and with more investment and involvement from institutes or corporations.

How long in the future?
And what's the plan if they do this before you reach that point?
You can see in all those topics about Nigeria poeple claiming an outrageous number of users like million over millions yet the central bank banned financial transactions and there was nobody! protesting, If we look at real life, not twitter warriors.

Does this will affect the price if really happen ? if most countries are banning bitcoin and those countries are still available to mine are the country with high electricity bills. That means it's harder to got more bitcoin and ofcourse the price will be so much higher because the supply will be stuck and the demand keep increasing. I'd love to see that happen actually 

That's not how mining works. The supply will never be "stuck" unless nobody mines anymore, and if indeed the hashrate would drop to 1% for a period the pace will be again recovered at the adjustment. Also, a serious drop in hashrate to affect considerably the number of bitcoins mined would mean also fewer blocks, lower blockchain capacity, higher fees, I believe it would do more harm than the slight temporary decrease in coins issued.

[hatshepsut93]

I think in the future, the demographics of Bitcoiners will become younger and it will be unstoppable trend.

• Bitcoiners' Demographic over years
• According to Coin.dance, the Bitcoin community engagement by age as follows: 18-24: 16.65%, and 25-34: 41.35%

The fact that a large percentage of Bitcoin users is young doesn't mean that a lot of young people are using Bitcoin. In this context the important number is percentage of the population that uses Bitcoin, and currently it's in very low single digits for most countries, and much less than 1% globally.

Take marijuana for example, 15% of americans consume it regularly and over 50% at least tried it once, and yet it's still not legal in all states, and it was illegal for many decades and all the protesting didn't do much. Banning Bitcoin today would be an extremely easy action.

[tranthidung]

The fact that a large percentage of Bitcoin users is young doesn't mean that a lot of young people are using Bitcoin. In this context the important number is percentage of the population that uses Bitcoin, and currently it's in very low single digits for most countries, and much less than 1% globally.

I meant about the trend. Now, young people attribute to big percent of Bitcoin users and children now will have higher probability that they will use Bitcoin when they pass through 18+.

I meant the picture will be very different next ten years or next 20 years. Like the Internet or Facebook, especially Facebook, the elderly does not use that much initially but when it becomes a common application, more elderly will use it but it is not too much important. The more importance comes from the population of children and teenagers, they will be main parts of Bitcoin community.

[franky1]

and yet some pools official data is still showing they are solving blocks from farms in china

https://pool.btc.com/en-US/pool-stats
(scroll to bottom)
8 blocks by just this pool are recorded to be mined in china on the 16th of october.
so it seems china is still on their record as being majority mining

Still, having trouble differentiating pols from miners and servers from nodes?
Do you really think those servers who how many poeple mine in Beijing?
You could do an experiment, set your miners to BTC pool, and check where...oh wait, sorry! I forgot you don't mine!
I was going to ask you how on earth there are no blocks mined from Philipines or Iran or Canada or Australia there but that would mean demanding too much.

and by such. do you think cambridge knows more about a pools stratums/workers then the pool itself.

just saying.
cambridge has also said recently and in the past that the CO2 level of bitcoin mining is like 3-4x more than other calculations. simply because they used old outdated hardware, and heck they even couldnt do basic math of daily hashrate.
(they took hashrate of ONE DAY and used that as basis for whole year rate. even though real hashrate was lower for most other days.)

but hey. lets believe a source of data just because it sounds academic

[stompix]

cambridge has also said recently and in the past that the CO2 level of bitcoin mining is like 3-4x more than other calculations. simply because they used old outdated hardware, and heck they even couldnt do basic math of daily hashrate.
(they took hashrate of ONE DAY and used that as basis for whole year rate. even though real hashrate was lower for most other days.)

but hey. lets believe a source of data just because it sounds academic

Again, you speak without even bothering to check facts.
Cambridge data on power consumption and relation to CO2 is updated daily according to the hash rate and is constantly upgraded by changing the mix of hardware used for average consumption.

So, if you would have actually checked rather than writing non-sense you could have seen this:


But, if you're really interested, you can check their methodology and then try to make whatever point you want to. Next time try not to make a fool of yourself again, it's not even funny anymore.

[pooya87]

If you have a specific reason to doubt the information, I would encourage you to speak up, but I don’t think it is reasonable to make the assumption it is wrong.

I'm challenging the validity of the data they use because logically it makes no sense. For starters in a country with 1.4 billion people, there is bound to be a lot of solo miners. Additionally people can still mine bitcoin in Hong Kong (part of China). So when the data suggests 0 hashrate from China, it can not be right as it has to be at least something there.

There is also another possibility that the pools are hiding their China stats and reporting it as 0 to protect their miners.

This raises the question of how reliable the rest of the stats are!

[Quickseller]

If you have a specific reason to doubt the information, I would encourage you to speak up, but I don’t think it is reasonable to make the assumption it is wrong.

I'm challenging the validity of the data they use because logically it makes no sense. For starters in a country with 1.4 billion people, there is bound to be a lot of solo miners. Additionally people can still mine bitcoin in Hong Kong (part of China). So when the data suggests 0 hashrate from China, it can not be right as it has to be at least something there.

There is also another possibility that the pools are hiding their China stats and reporting it as 0 to protect their miners.

This raises the question of how reliable the rest of the stats are!

Electricity in Hong Kong costs about $0.15 per KWH, which is very expensive by bitcoin mining standards. As such, I don’t think there were ever many miners in HK.

I also don’t think there are many solo miners that are individuals out there anymore. In order to mine one block per day, you need approximately 1EH of hashrate (assuming no variance), which is about what the output of 9,000 Antminer S19 Pro. Reduce the output to one block per 14 days and only ~640 S19 Pros are needed. Reduce block output to once every 4 months, and you need 75 S19 Pros.

75 S19’s would consume about 240k KWH per hour. China is dealing with blackouts now— they are going to notice it someone is using that much electricity.

It is possible there are miners in China who have two or three miners in their basement that connects to pools via a VPN. I don’t think there are many of these people as the Chinese government doesn’t screw around, and it also extensively surveils its citizens.

The data used is sufficient to be 99% certain that reported percentages are within 6% of the actual number.

[Nathrixxx]

As how I've given it a closer look on China's way of control system, they totally go against any innovations or inventions not initiated by them, 99.9% of their economy produce and services offered from generated within their circle, infact dey have their own Google and other ip address does not work in china, never forgetting learning Chinese is also a prerequisite for anyone there.

China has its own digital Yuan and it will be difficult for them to allow any form of currency other than thier own to outrun theirs, and they have even given a verdict to eradicate all mining rigs before December end this year. They want no elements of trace to all crypto activities.

[pooya87]

Electricity in Hong Kong costs about $0.15 per KWH, which is very expensive by bitcoin mining standards. As such, I don’t think there were ever many miners in HK.

That wasn't the point.
Even if there is a small number of miners in HK that mine with electricity cost lower than the average price (which is the $0.15 you found) or miners from other parts of China, the validity of the data provided by the study quoted here is seriously questioned.
The error is definitely more than 1%-6% too.

I also don’t think there are many solo miners that are individuals out there anymore. In order to mine one block per day,
China is dealing with blackouts now— they are going to notice it someone is using that much electricity.

You don't need to mine 1 block per day, you get a profit equal to how much you invest. A single ASIC is enough for a "home" miner.
You'd be surprised how many people are using a ton of electricity and have nothing to do with bitcoin and bitcoin mining. For example a couple of months ago where I live there was a big news about a celebrity's electric bill that his usage had surpassed 10k KWH. Based on your numbers that is 3-4 ASICs. There are those who waste a lot more than that.
Power companies have always been complaining about these excessive users even before bitcoin was invented. In other words there is nothing to notice about a home miner.

[buwaytress]

Interesting data, but yeah, not sure how useful it all can be end of the day. Thanks, nonetheless.

What's still more interesting for me to know now is how much of that hashrate has actually changed hands. Are the miners owning them the same people (I think they are)? Is the distribution of ownership more diverse? And I don't mean more distributed among more subsidiaries and shell companies that eventually all end up having the same beneficiary.

In fact, if the forced hashrate migration actually ended up being better (cheaper), could the concentration of hashrate ownership actually increased?

[Bitstar_coin]

China hashrate dropping from 41% to 0% in one month(June-July 2021) seems suspicious to me.
I wonder what will happen to the Chinese companies that produce mining hardware,like Bitmain?
Will they keep producing mining hardware and export it outside China?
The concerns about the mining hashrate being concentrated in one country were false.Bitcoin was OK,when the vast majority of the mining was located in China.China never had any control over Bitcoin.
Now,Bitcoin is still doing fine,with the hashrate being re-distributed among several countries.

Either that or migrating to settle in a crypto friendly country with fair energy or face the possibility of folding up, they can always export their production to other countries except the government has a problem with that too,
And speaking of China in control,  I mean this ban actually shows a clear picture of what is really happening, despite the China hashrate at 0%, everything seem to be okey with btc, I guess it was a blessing in disguise for the vast majority who have the believe that china was in control, now that fear is out.

[Quickseller]

I also don’t think there are many solo miners that are individuals out there anymore. In order to mine one block per day,
China is dealing with blackouts now— they are going to notice it someone is using that much electricity.

You don't need to mine 1 block per day, you get a profit equal to how much you invest. A single ASIC is enough for a "home" miner.

It is ridiculous to expect to capture every single household that is mining with a single ASIC miner. Someone running a single ASIC miner is expected for all intents and purposes to never find a block. Should the data in the OP also capture the people who are mining by hand?

Those who are solo mining with a small number of ASICs are going to be well within the margin of error I previously explained.

You'd be surprised how many people are using a ton of electricity and have nothing to do with bitcoin and bitcoin mining. For example a couple of months ago where I live there was a big news about a celebrity's electric bill that his usage had surpassed 10k KWH. Based on your numbers that is 3-4 ASICs. There are those who waste a lot more than that.
Power companies have always been complaining about these excessive users even before bitcoin was invented. In other words there is nothing to notice about a home miner.

There is no reason why an electric company would complain about heavy electric users as long as they are getting paid.

In China, that is experiencing electricity shortages, and collects extensive data on its people, would be likely to look into why a household is using 10k KwH a month. My guess is someone using 10k KwH per month who is not mining is probably keeping their homes at a ridiculous temperature and or keeping their windows open while running the heat/air conditioning.   

[pooya87]

It is ridiculous to expect to capture every single household that is mining with a single ASIC miner. Someone running a single ASIC miner is expected for all intents and purposes to never find a block. Should the data in the OP also capture the people who are mining by hand?

Those who are solo mining with a small number of ASICs are going to be well within the margin of error I previously explained.

I feel like you are being silly on purpose. I never claimed they would find a block ever, I also tried to avoid using the term "solo miner" to avoid that confusion. Just like a farm with lots of ASICs a "home miner" with one or two ASICs would also connect to a pool and share the work and receive a portion of the reward based on their contribution.

There is no reason why an electric company would complain about heavy electric users as long as they are getting paid.

There is. The usage is always increasing and there is always a shortage of electricity. We don't notice it 99% of the times because the production is keeping up with the ever increasing demand. The complain is about wasting electricity and the pressure that puts on the grid not to mention the environmental damage. Not everything is about "getting paid".

[Rufsilf]

If a ban on mining can effectively reduce hashrate of a country to zero, then this is an argument against the statement that Bitcoin can't be shut down by government. If all those top countries decided to ban Bitcoin, where would the miners move? To countries with a fraction of electricity producing capabilities? That would mean Bitcoin's network would take a large hashrate hit, which means reduced security. So while Bitcoin can't be literally shut down, it can be very seriously harmed by governments, if they decided to act against it together.

Does this will affect the price if really happen ? if most countries are banning bitcoin and those countries are still available to mine are the country with high electricity bills. That means it's harder to got more bitcoin and ofcourse the price will be so much higher because the supply will be stuck and the demand keep increasing. I'd love to see that happen actually 

Banning and restricting any use of not just bitcoin but all crypto related transactions and mining in some countries like China really do some bad effects on the value but for a short-term only. Even if China belongs to a superpower country, still there are lot of big countries like USA, Russia and some parts of Europe who let their citizens participate in any crypto related transactions which gave a big positive impact on the market.

Higher electricty bills may gave the miners a hard time to mine, which would result to a high density of demand than the supply given. However, there are many options available today to lower the electricity fee without lowering the consumption. Because of these options, the supply and demand can be balanced.

[Wind_FURY]

Nothing like China can take over bitcoin or bitcoin network again, it appeared to novices before that China can be in control of bitcoin, but bitcoin hashrate increased back as many miners left China into another country to mine bitcoin while some mining pools especially in United State increased their mining hashrate.

What this just revealed is that if a country do not support bitcoin, some other countries are supporting it, if mining bitcoin is not allowed in a country or banned, other countries will see it as an opportunity to encourage mining and take advantage of the opportunity.

I will wish many other countries to encourage mining so that USA will not be the new China so that the hashes generation is not congested in a single country.

Bitcoin hashing power does NOT represent who/which country “controls ” Bitcoin. Everyone shouldn’t forget that Proof of Work is more a Sybil Attack prevention mechanism than a mechanism for consensus. BIP-148 proved it, although there will always be the deniers.

[Obito]

I didn't expect the sudden drop in hashrate just because China banned bitcoin mining, I thought that there will be stragglers that will try to do it business as usual but no, they did drop it the moment China said so, goes to show that bitcoin mining in China is owned by the government themselves. Seems that US will get the benefit from all of this and at the same time the community.

[stompix]

The error is definitely more than 1%-6% too.
~
You don't need to mine 1 block per day, you get a profit equal to how much you invest. A single ASIC is enough for a "home" miner.
You'd be surprised how many people are using a ton of electricity and have nothing to do with bitcoin and bitcoin mining. For example a couple of months ago where I live there was a big news about a celebrity's electric bill that his usage had surpassed 10k KWH. Based on your numbers that is 3-4 ASICs. There are those who waste a lot more than that.
Power companies have always been complaining about these excessive users even before bitcoin was invented. In other words there is nothing to notice about a home miner.

You're forgetting this is China and ignoring the current situation there . And second, you're forgetting mining is not like browsing and not that easy to hide..

The average household consumption in China is just around 200kwh for the cities, a single S9 burns 1000kwh a month.
All the Chinese government has to do is get the list of poeple who are consuming more than 5 times the average, step one.
Of course, you say that this guy and that guy has used 10k kWh a month, but there is a difference, I'm willing to bet all my BTC that his consumption pattern is not linear. For sure I can turn my air conditioner, my oven (electric), the washing machine and manage to get triple the consumption, but I can't do this all day all night. For the miner the consumption is linear, 30kwh a day, 1.5 each hour after hour, a pattern that simply can't be hidden.

The second, the IP problem.
Of course, use a VPN, but again there is a difference. You connect to a VPN you browse a few websites and before the GFW manages to learn what you're doing you shut down and that's it. But with a miner again you need to connect 24/7 to an IP and send nearly the same amount of data each second and each minute, any such behavior is so easy to track and they did it already.

The third is a pure economic reason.
With an s9 miner, you make around 100$ a month at 10cents/kwh. Right now you can drop this for 500$ and sell it in a few days.
So you can take 5 months of profit in a few days, not carry the risk of mining going unprofitable, not risking the miner crashing, and not risking jail in china, which is quite different from the rest of the world.

Now, to get to the 6% number you would have to get 10exa. That's close to one million old miners. Do you think there are 1 million individual miners in China? Let's be honest about it, if it were the whole f chain would be flooded with miner payments.

Of course, you can assume that some are using more than one, like 5 or 6 or newer models.
Then you have higher easier-to-detect consumption, a noise that can rival a carwash, and oh you can't without a new circuit breaker since most do only 30A and you won't run at 220v even 2 S19pro on that.

And then there is the math behind this.
Bitmain according to announcements and press releases and fillings has delivered just to companies in the US and Canada around 20 exa of hashing power, not to small guys and private entities. Then there is microbt, the rest of the world, and the fleeing big farms (like btc.com).
And despite a huge delivery of brand new hashrate, despite mining per TH being 5 times more profitable than a year ago we're still 25% below the peak.

Now from 180 exa, we cut 135, we relocate around half of it, that 60, we add 40 in new gear and we're still above what we see.
This means that either China had more than 75% or that less than half of it moved and is still on.

[franky1]

stompix (note comedy)
dont forget to add a disclaimer page to your post with the words "assumptions" "estimates"

and um 1.5kwh does not equate to 30kwh a day. only say this as you love a good knitpick
also whilst at it. you want to make your assumptions on a 1million chinese people

well that would be 14exa. first off..
secondly. you then divert to assume that they would need to get new circuit boards for 2x 219pro
so now you saying that you assume each individual miner has 220thash instead of 14..
well then its not then 1 million people but instead just 45,000 people. thus. a country with a 1.4billion people.. you think that its not even possible that 0.0032% of people would be miners

have you been this neglectful with math on purpose. because it seems you are trying to throw every bath toy out of the water to make it sound insane and inpossible for there to be any scenario where home hobby miners can mine.. when the obvious is actually achievable

90,000 people have ONE s19pro. only 3.25kw/hour, so no big deal.

you can continue to scream and cry and pretend that home hobby mining is not a thing and impossible. but i seen right through your assumptions and estimates

oh and one last thing.
forget your views on china. its no longer the rice paddy fields where homes only get enough electric for a fridge and a single light bulb for just 8 hours a day.
china has sky scrapers. apartments. neon lights. you might be surprised with how much china has evolved in the last 20 years.

yes some farming towns might use less than 1kw/h.. but city dwellers with 70inch TV, smart fridges, central heating. gaming systems and such use alot more then 2-3kw/h

so yea take your ricepaddy field propaganda vision of what you think china is like. and put it as a exclusioned clause in your assumption page

[stompix]

The disclaimer should be: not for franky who doesn't know how many sun hours there are in the UK, how a mining reward is split, the difference between a pool and a farm, the difference between the location of a mining pool server and a farm and some more basic stuff like reading

and um 1.5kwh does not equate to 30kwh a day. only say this as you love a good knitpick
also whilst at it. you want to make your assumptions on a 1million chinese people

Have you ever heard of rounding?
An S9 burns 33.6 kWh a day, that is 1.4 kwh an hour, still between than your 300 off margin of error.

well that would be 14exa. first off..
secondly. you then divert to assume that they would need to get new circuit boards for 2x 219pro

Where did I say anything about boards? Get yourself tested, you're seeing things!
And besides, you don't need to get anything because if you would actually check, bitmain has ready to ship s19pro j right now!

well then its not then 1 million people but instead just 45,000 people. thus. a country with a 1.4billion people.. you think that its not even possible that 0.0032% of people would be miners

Let's add kids under 16, poeple over 70, poeple who earn less than 500 a month but somehow magically manage to get their hand of 10k a piece gear. Of course, it's not impossible.
This then brings the question, why wouldn't that be also possible for India. So why is not India having 6% of the hashrate?

90,000 people have ONE s19pro. only 3.25kw/hour, so no big deal.

2340 kwh a month, 10 times above the average consumption per household! in a country where police are patrolling the streets and issuing fines to merchants who let the lights out during the night when the shop is closed.
Hilarious!

china has sky scrapers. apartments. neon lights. you might be surprised with how much china has evolved in the last 20 years.

It doesn't fucking matter.
Have you actually read the official orders on power rationing coming directly from the government?
Again, frankly, read something that is actually happening, not your unicorn dreams:
https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2021-09-26/doc-iktzscyx6474716.shtml

yes some farming towns might use less than 1kw/h.. but city dwellers with 70inch TV, smart fridges, central heating. gaming systems and such use alot more then 2-3kw/h

Put your electric consumption bill my dear franky!
Let's see how you manage to get 2000kwh a month!
But of course, I know already that you won't since when it comes to facts and numbers you run away like a child screaming curses because the other guy was mean to you.

[worldofcoins]

It's not only related to mining but China recently made it clear " Transactions related to Cryptocurrency  are illegal"

That clearly means cryptocurrencies as a whole are banned in China, No ICO in China - China also used this as an excuse " ICOs are being used to raise illegal fundings", Including many others.

China's hash rate dropping to 0 should be satisfying to China.

But i have a question: What if someone uses a VPN before they start mining, Will their original location also be changed in the statistics of hate rate share?

[DewiKirana]

It seems that China is very strict with banning Bitcoin mining, I already suspected that when China made regulations regarding Bitcoin, China with all its might would enforce these rules.

[franky1]

It doesn't fucking matter.
Have you actually read the official orders on power rationing coming directly from the government?
Again, frankly, read something that is actually happening, not your unicorn dreams:
https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2021-09-26/doc-iktzscyx6474716.shtml

comedy gold
your using an associated press article talking about small villages running on coal as your excuse to say there is laws against electric use in renewable area's and cities.
(hint bitcoin farms avoid the coal powered north east)

let me guess in your imagination you think china only operates factories for 4 hours a day..

and you also want to pretend that cities have mandatory blackouts at night where its like london blitz where anyone showing a glimmer of light at night will be fined

oh my god you are desperate.

its now highly apparent that you have never even run, visited or even researched a mining farm in china. never actually travelled or experienced china nor even spoke to anyone living in china to actually know what its like in china.

..
if however you are just exaggerating propaganda to cause argument on this forum. please find a new hobby to entertain yourself. maybe try comedy. you seem to have a skill of people laughing at things you say.


truth is.. just like in america, NY banned all bitcoin activity.. why.. so they can then offer licences. (research:NY bitlicence)
they cant licence something until they first ban it.
so aim your research at the real politics. not the media propaganda you exaggerate.
oh.. and um.. ill show you a picture. please do not react with anxiety over 'fines'


disclaimer: no chinese citizen was fined in making this pretty

[stompix]

comedy gold
your using an associated press

I didn't know that AP controller Sina aka Weibo.
But in your fairy tale imagination, everything is possible. I guess that the CCP is actually controlled by Nestle.

(hint bitcoin farms avoid the coal powered north east)

Oh yeah Franky!!!, you tell those stupid miners!
Those morons from Bitmain building their biggest facility in Ordos, in the land of coal.
How stupid of them not to follow your advice, I mean, how could a multibillion company do otherwise than you say and still make billions.
Morons, everyone should just follow your advice!!!

oh my god you are desperate.

Look in the mirror and come with something other than this shit if you really want to prove something.
At this point, you just mumbling like an idiot who has again caught in his lies caused by a total lack of information and his pride of being a know-it when in reality is as stupid as this world allows it.

disclaimer: no chinese citizen was fined in making this pretty

And your proof is a picture grabbed from the internet.
Loooooool!
So you have the English mouthpiece of the Chinese government acknowledging the industrial output is decreasing, factories are getting shut but no, franky knows it all knows better because he saw a picture of a skyscraper on the internet:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3150315/china-electricity-shortage-industrial-production-grinds-halt

Oh, one more thing, if there is no energy crisis in China why has the price of coal reached 280$/ton?
Probably because AP, they are the ones not telling how right now in China everyone leaves their appliances running as they have too much energy!
You know franky, there was a thing about never being too late to stop being stupid but somehow you've managed to get past that point and magically sealed the way back.

Again zero fucking proofs of anything, zero numbers, zero everything just a shitload of crap, as usual.