The error is definitely more than 1%-6% too.
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You don't need to mine 1 block per day, you get a profit equal to how much you invest. A single ASIC is enough for a "home" miner.
You'd be surprised how many people are using a ton of electricity and have nothing to do with bitcoin and bitcoin mining. For example a couple of months ago where I live there was a big news about a celebrity's electric bill that his usage had surpassed 10k KWH. Based on your numbers that is 3-4 ASICs. There are those who waste a lot more than that.
Power companies have always been complaining about these excessive users even before bitcoin was invented. In other words there is nothing to notice about a home miner.
You're forgetting this is China and i
gnoring the current situation there . And second, you're forgetting mining is not like browsing and not that easy to hide..
The average household consumption in China is just around 200kwh for the cities, a single S9 burns 1000kwh a month.
All the Chinese government has to do is get the list of poeple who are consuming more than 5 times the average, step one.
Of course, you say that this guy and that guy has used 10k kWh a month, but there is a difference, I'm willing to bet all my BTC that his consumption pattern is not linear. For sure I can turn my air conditioner, my oven (electric), the washing machine and manage to get triple the consumption, but I can't do this all day all night. For the miner the consumption is linear, 30kwh a day, 1.5 each hour after hour, a pattern that simply can't be hidden.
The second, the IP problem.
Of course, use a VPN, but again there is a difference. You connect to a VPN you browse a few websites and before the GFW manages to learn what you're doing you shut down and that's it. But with a miner again you need to connect 24/7 to an IP and send nearly the same amount of data each second and each minute, any such behavior is so easy to track and they did it already.
The third is a pure economic reason.
With an s9 miner, you make around 100$ a month at 10cents/kwh. Right now you can drop this for 500$ and sell it in a few days.
So you can take 5 months of profit in a few days, not carry the risk of mining going unprofitable, not risking the miner crashing, and not risking jail in china, which is quite different from the rest of the world.
Now, to get to the 6% number you would have to get 10exa. That's close to one million old miners. Do you think there are 1 million individual miners in China? Let's be honest about it, if it were the whole f chain would be flooded with miner payments.
Of course, you can assume that some are using more than one, like 5 or 6 or newer models.
Then you have higher easier-to-detect consumption, a noise that can rival a carwash, and oh you can't without a new circuit breaker since most do only 30A and you won't run at 220v even 2 S19pro on that.
And then there is the math behind this.
Bitmain according to announcements and press releases and fillings has delivered just to companies in the US and Canada around 20 exa of hashing power, not to small guys and private entities. Then there is microbt, the rest of the world, and the fleeing big farms (like btc.com).
And despite a huge delivery of brand new hashrate, despite mining per TH being 5 times more profitable than a year ago we're still 25% below the peak.
Now from 180 exa, we cut 135, we relocate around half of it, that 60, we add 40 in new gear and we're still above what we see.
This means that either China had more than 75% or that less than half of it moved and is still on.
