Reality Check on Crypto

[LUCKMCFLY]

The reality is that bitcoin first appeared on the earth a decade and few more years ago on the earth. It's planning might have started way before that so that the inventor was busy coding the blockchain and it's logics. Ideally it started, and it never looked back to this date. The reality is that, there is more than trillions of dollars which are being spend on the blockchain and the enormous volume is driving the price of bitcoin to the new goal.

Now, what bunch of peeps think about the bitcoin does not matter here. If invisible reader is here to gain more knowledge about it, then read the above para twice and empty your bank into crypto before its too late.

The reality tells me, bitcoin is now way sophisticated asset than it was a year ago and it would far more lucid a year after this. So don't argue, because we would be just wasting the time and nothing else.

The idea started even before 2000's, maybe by satoshi himself, maybe someone who is totally stranger who just checked, but if you check the "e-money" world, we had many many periods before bitcoin that had emoney methods.

However, blockchain basically created something that is non-penetrable and also decentralized which gave its power. Look at usdt to see the difference, if the first coin was USDT then we wouldn't have this situation, we would have something that is totally different, why? Because it is centralized and pegged, then we wouldn't have crypto at all. The reason why bitcoin became this famous is the fact that it is decentralized and it is totally owned by the people and nobody else.

You are right, if there were no BTC there would be nothing, that is why many say that BTC is the King, he is the boss and that is why it is the total dependence of altcoins by BTC. I have seen many talk that altcoins can survive without BTC and no, it is impossible, it is like the example you give with USDT, USDT is not totally USD, it has a combination with crypto, because that was the last report made. .

However, currently BTC is reaching governments and banks with more force, USDT is only seen as one more stablecoin, I believe that the reality with crypto resides from that point of view, where it could have had many origins, but it really was created since Satoshi Nakamoto came out.

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[TheNineClub]

We that spend time on this forum, go on crypto Twiter or chat on various Telegram crypto groups, we tend to forget that we are in a bubble of sorts and that we are not the norm of the average investors, more an exception. And things like that will start to show more as crypto gets more widespread.

[Shenzou]

for the most part what is stated in the presentation is understandable and logical, but the reality is that people are not also that so happy about using the current finical system set by the government or like filling their pockets with change and paper money, they do it because they have no choice and are forced to do it because shops and businesses or any other transactions are set to be done that way, but i am sure if they had an alternative they would change to using it, if crypto payments were available everywhere we would see it being used by the average person.

[palle11]

if crypto payments were available everywhere we would see it being used by the average person.

It is available everywhere except you mean awareness that few people in different countries have moreover the growth is increasing compared to 4 years ago. Cryptocreency cut to everyone and country except those who are fighting against it and limiting people from using it because they want to put their fiat first like China and they try to ban it. It is unstoppable to everyone reach only people in authority trying to limit the use.

[GeorgeJohn]

The people who go to BitcoinTalk are not the average investor: they are interested enough in crypto to make an account here.

Yes of course, I'm not disputing the fact, because not everyone in bitcointalk is an investor, majority learn how to become an investor through the community of bitcointalk, and specifically the forum is meant to acquire the knowledge of bitcoin, and with lectures the community will render to you who are novice to crypto related transactions, you as well will be acquainted to cryptocurrencies generally, and during your investment they will not be difficulty again.

[RealMalatesta]

if crypto payments were available everywhere we would see it being used by the average person.

It is available everywhere except you mean awareness that few people in different countries have moreover the growth is increasing compared to 4 years ago. Cryptocreency cut to everyone and country except those who are fighting against it and limiting people from using it because they want to put their fiat first like China and they try to ban it. It is unstoppable to everyone reach only people in authority trying to limit the use.

This is the reason I feel that Vitalik's opinion may not need to remain true forever (I remember he was too confident about hardfork on bitcoin blockchain to scale but bitcoin adapted segwit instead). Crypto payments will be available to everyone in near future which means it will be substantially used by everyone regardless of they are liking the volatile nature or they love decentralized concepts.

What into I believe more is, even tier-1 country people are being served by traditional finance system decently, we cannot expect them not to adapt revolutionary new system. At least for a change people may prefer to try it. This is the point where Vitalik's opinion turns complete wrong.

[Silberman]

It's historically not 5% per year, not even close.  The inflation rate over the last 11 years averages 2% per year, and that's including the large increase in 2021.  It's been remarkably stable despite the massive quantitative easing.  And even assuming we used your wrong number of 5% per year, that would still be vastly superior as a currency to one that regularly depreciates 10% in a day.  That's an unusable currency that doesn't allow for any type of long term planning because volatility is a terrible quality for a currency to have.  The inability to plan long term is a death knell for any economy.

Year    Annual Inflation Rate
2011       3.0%
2012       1.7%
2013       1.5%
2014       0.8%
2015       0.7%
2016       2.1%
2017       2.1%
2018       1.9%
2019       2.3%
2020       1.4%
2021       5.4%

Source:  https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

Historically inflation for the US has not been this high, but also keep in mind the growth of the US economy, spending, federal reserve liabilities, and ratio of debt to GDP.

The US economic numbers were released recently and the economy is growing at 2 percent with a 5 percent inflation rate. So there is not enough money being generated to even being close to paying off any debt. The currency is going to balloon, compound this with the current labor shortage that exists in the US due to generous unemployment benefits.

2021 was of course unique due to the pandemic so previous inflation numbers won't be good in predicting future inflation numbers because of the permanent economic ramifications of shutting down entire pillars of the economy.

This is why I think the pandemic changed the game forever, up until now the economic growth was still enough to disguise the fundamentals problems of the economies of the world, but now those problems have been accelerated by all the money governments had to print and the reduction on the economic activity they caused by their policies, so I do not think all of those jobs that were lost are coming back and when we add all the money that was given to the population for free then this is making the situation even worst.

[AicecreaME]

Sometimes, this forum thinks that the rest of the world will flock to Bitcoin in droves because of its qualities.

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.

Well, it is not the case.

The people who go to BitcoinTalk are not the average investor: they are interested enough in crypto to make an account here.

It is not the posters you talk to, but the invisible lurkers who may be reading this very post.

Nowadays, people are here in bitcoin not because of its decentralized functionality but because it is a speculative asset that could gain them profit in either short term or long term. I believe there are only a few people that are here in crypto just for the sake of anonymity. Sure, they are here for that, but I doubt that's the sole reason. Perhaps we can consider those people who are not into KYC because there are still people who are uncomfortable with that. But I guess aside from that, their main reason is not to advocate decentralization, but to earn and generate income. Let's not be a hypocrite, shall we?

Also, investors and traders have a love-hate relationship with volatility. Why do I say so? Because volatility can either make or break your investment or trading strategy. When the volatility in favors with you, definitely you would celebrate. Otherwise, you'll regret, sulk, and be bitter about the outcome. It's just really a matter of what situation you are in and how volatility is affecting you. We have different perspective about it based on the current scenario we are in.

If you don't have the heart to invest and trade crypto, then do not enter. You have to have a critical thinking skills in order to survive and thrive. If there are any lurkers reading this that are still thinking and contemplating whether to do crypto or not, reassess your main purpose and your risk tolerance first before executing your decision. Be wise. Don't just follow the hype.