Getting early 2018 top vibes!

[adaseb]

I’m starting to get deja vu to late 2017 early 2018. Makes me nervous about the BTC and ETH topping soon.

1) We got 2 doge meme coins which have a top10 market cap. We thought that Doge pumping to almost $1 was nuts but now we got that Shiba coin overtaking doges market cap. People are calling for $1 Shiba which would be what? In the trillions or quadrillion of dollars of market cap.

2) Some guy on Twitter posted a photo of his Uber driver who was trading and driving at the same time. He was up like 30% on his portfolio trading Shiba.

3) We got Wolf of Wall Street who said Bitcoin is a scam who bought some NFTs. Didn’t think he was allowed to trade anymore.

4) We got Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) making Crypto . Com commercials with a “fortune favors the brave” which seems more like telling people to “invest your hard earned money in sh!tcoins”.

5) Coin base is #1 app on App Store and Crypto.com is somewhere in the top5

6) El Salvador president is buying "420" BTC. Why not 400 or 450 ?

7) Snoop Dogg having a NFT as his Twitter avatar

8 ) Kardashians promoting some scam coin

9) Some other rapper pumping some coin and then doing a massive rugging.

10) People quitting their jobs to become "full time crypto traders"

I still think BTC might break ATH again because where is all this NFT and Doge profits going to go? Into stable coins? Sure but first they might go into Bitcoin and Ethereum first since many are trading DeFI and sell into ETH first. I don't want to be a bear but I just don't see the $100-250K happening, at least in the near term or in this cycle. I think we might top somewhere in the $70-80K particulary at $74K which is the Fib Extension or where AUD/CAD currencies are near $100,000.

The scenarios I see are as follows.

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> Cause Massive loses for retail traders -> Retail Traders panic and sell everything including Bitcoin -> Bitcoin dumps -> Whales buy Bitcoin dip and Pump it later.

OR

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> They buy ETH and BTC -> Alts get Dumped, BTC gets Pumped -> Whales sell their ETH and BTC for Tether/Fiat -> Cycle repeats 4 years later.

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[GreatArkansas]

I'm glad I saw a post like this.
I am also worried this time, feels like 2017-2018. For sure for those people who experienced the bull market and how it flipped will know the feeling and might have a clue or sign when that will happen again.

A lot of people also claim that this is a double top since a few months ago we were able to record a new all-time high around $64, xxx.

I am not bearish on Bitcoin now, especially how Bitcoin or crypto market cap is bouncing for every dump especially a few days ago. But we should be prepare and be realistic on price targets, we will get there but we should respect the time.

[el kaka22]

I don't want to be a bear but I just don't see the $100-250K happening, at least in the near term or in this cycle. I think we might top somewhere in the $70-80K particulary at $74K which is the Fib Extension or where AUD/CAD currencies are near $100,000.

Do not forget that bitcoin market took just two weeks of time to double from 10k to 20k by December 2017.
We are having exactly two full months left with this year hence anything could happen. Always expect the unexpected.

Still, there will not be any compulsion for any market to have exact same level of growth; fortunately or unfortunately we had similar growth in 2013 and 2017 which enable us to think of another repeating performance in 2021. Lately, I do see people started speculating about persistence of current rally into 2022 which might be a good sign to have anything above $100k levels. I am not having any problem to have new ATHs even after this year .

When there are rays of hope to get into psychologically bigger values, there would be possibilities for FOMO. When more speculations are about the bearish trend in January then everyone will turn cautious which may lead current ATH to remain as it is for next 4 years.

[LoyceV]

~snip "famous influencers"~

I love not having any idea who they are. When will people realize that rich people don't share their interests?

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> Cause Massive loses for retail traders -> Retail Traders panic and sell everything including Bitcoin -> Bitcoin dumps -> Whales buy Bitcoin dip and Pump it later.

OR

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> They buy ETH and BTC -> Alts get Dumped, BTC gets Pumped -> Whales sell their ETH and BTC for Tether/Fiat -> Cycle repeats 4 years later.

I'll add my own prediction: Dogecoin will drop, and try again the next couple of years. It has always done that and I expect it to keep doing that.
NFTs and Defi will end the same way as ICOs and most Forks: forgotten.
ETH will drop hard again but go high too because they'll come up with one or two more ways to sell BS tokens on their centralized and centrally controlled shitcoin.
The Top 10 will look totally different 5 years from now, just like it was totally different 5 years ago.
Bitcoin in the short term will go up and down. In the long term it will go up. Fiat keeps inflating, governments fear Bitcoin for a reason. If government tells me not to use Bitcoin, I know I'm on the right track.

When more speculations are about the bearish trend in January then everyone will turn cautious which may lead current ATH to remain as it is for next 4 years.

Looking at bitcoinaverage.com (Log view), it looks like each cycle take longer to complete. I can imagine block halvings have less and less influence due to the lower block reward, so at some point I wouldn't be surprised if the 4 years cycle gets longer. Say 6 or more years. After the ATH in 2017 I was convinced (or tried to convince myself) that there would be a new ATH in 2021, which is indeed what happened. But from how it looks now, I don't dare predict 2025 for the next one. It could just as well be 2023.

[marine4u]

I’m starting to get deja vu to late 2017 early 2018. Makes me nervous about the BTC and ETH topping soon.

I don't think it will ohair the price action back to the way it was at the beginning of 2018. Everything became the Chinese experiment at the beginning of that year.  What influence does it have on us?  It is not the current scenario, I think, the next scenario will depend more on the stronger intrinsic news but regarding the Bitcoin ETF, is it could be more profitable for whales to dip  and long-term state transitions.
The news has almost cleaned up and cleared the way for a major rally for Bitcoin and ETH to hold the sustainability of distinct history.

[skarais]

I firmly believe that Doge and Shiba are two altcoins that fall into the altcoin category that tends to pump and dump. These two altcoin have provided considerable returns for investors, but they will never feel guilty for not buying these altcoin in the first place. Shiba and Doge investors will sell Shiba and Doge to buy bitcoin or buy USDT or keep it in fiat I think. This is because I believe most of them will also not believe in the future potential of that altcoin starting a massive pumping process due to the influence of the hype and I think they would rather sell it for bitcoin or some other store of value.

[wxa7115]

I'm glad I saw a post like this.
I am also worried this time, feels like 2017-2018. For sure for those people who experienced the bull market and how it flipped will know the feeling and might have a clue or sign when that will happen again.

A lot of people also claim that this is a double top since a few months ago we were able to record a new all-time high around $64, xxx.

I am not bearish on Bitcoin now, especially how Bitcoin or crypto market cap is bouncing for every dump especially a few days ago. But we should be prepare and be realistic on price targets, we will get there but we should respect the time.

There are definitely some signs to worry about, but at least I do not see those signs on bitcoin but I see them on the NFT market, things are getting out of control on that market and now more and more people are putting their money in those coins thinking they are going to become rich, and this is without a doubt a problem, if they were investing in something solid it would not be as bad, but they are investing in the most risky proposition we can find in the market right now.

And when the market of NFTs finally crashes not only scammers will leave with a lot of money, they will also crush the confidence of those people in this market and will make other people that were on the fence about it to not invest or use bitcoin, slowing down the growth of bitcoin and increasing the possibility of a crash as people lose confidence in this market once again.

[philipma1957]

I see onwards and upwards for months and months to come. Circa 2023 before a steep drop. Those that are giant of heart will fare well and the faint hearted will look back at this post and think why didn't I listen to phil.

[el kaka22]

it looks like each cycle take longer to complete. I can imagine block halvings have less and less influence due to the lower block reward, so at some point I wouldn't be surprised if the 4 years cycle gets longer. Say 6 or more years. After the ATH in 2017 I was convinced (or tried to convince myself) that there would be a new ATH in 2021, which is indeed what happened. But from how it looks now, I don't dare predict 2025 for the next one. It could just as well be 2023.

I do not see any possibilities for having longer cycle than 4 years.

Only domination of bulls within 4 year cycle may vary. First 2 halving provided us 1 year long bulls domination and the 3rd halving may get us same 12 months long or 18 to 20 months long bullish trend.

Halving will have higher influence when block reward gets lower. It means all 4 years in a cycle may get dominated by bulls.

4 year cycle will go invalid only after bitcoin attains stable prices (means halving becomes insignificant as miners earn only rewards from tx fees).

If a new ATH happens in 2023 means it will be the consequence of halving occurred in 2020 and when we will have another halving in 2024 (as expected) then we might have more stronger bullish without any room for bears within that 4 years cycle.

[LoyceV]

Halving will have higher influence when block reward gets lower.

Can you explain this? Lower block rewards mean a lower reduction in new coins after each halving, so it's influence diminishes. After a few more halving newly mined Bitcoins will be insignificant.

[el kaka22]

Halving will have higher influence when block reward gets lower.

Can you explain this? Lower block rewards mean a lower reduction in new coins after each halving, so it's influence diminishes. After a few more halving newly mined Bitcoins will be insignificant.

By 17th halving we will have new block rewards less than 0.001 BTC still it doesn't mean miners will get nothing to sell. They will still earn and sell millions of dollars (block-reward+tx fees and thanks to higher BTC value; TX fees may value in millions for same 1 MB block). (Please refer: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply).

By each halving we will have stronger bullish trend in 4 year cycle and then 4 year cycle will disappear due to stable BTC value given that block-reward is zero and miners get and sell only TX fees.

After BTC value becomes stable and due to unexpected higher demand then we may have "unexpected new ATH" (like how gold is doing now) then I agree that ATH may occur at longer time than 4 years.

[buwaytress]

Okay. I had zero idea about this memecoin thing. Heard talk, but not til reading this do I realise just how wild it's become (and yet am not surprised).

I'm definitely, even as far away from social media as I am, fully aware that there are more and more ads telling people how to "make money from your laptop while drinking coffee" aka "put you real money into vapourware defi and keep your fingers crossed.

So glad most Bitcoin users haven't fallen for that nonsense, though I fear the eventual defi fallout will take its toll on Bitcoin markets.

[mk4]

Eh, we're starting to get some but the current market sentiment hasn't reached how bullish the masses were in the end of 2017 in my opinion. And yea, with the NFT hype, it didn't even necessarily started when we were in a bull market; and NFTs didn't exist in 2017 so..

But yea, this may or may not be the top, but if anyone's planning on trying to time it and sell the top, I sincerely wish them the best of luck because they're going to really need it.

[Lucius]

I’m starting to get deja vu to late 2017 early 2018. Makes me nervous about the BTC and ETH topping soon.

If you think an identical scenario will happen again, then you have the advantage of playing the right cards on time - I don't know why that would make you nervous?

1) We got 2 doge meme coins which have a top10 market cap. We thought that Doge pumping to almost $1 was nuts but now we got that Shiba coin overtaking doges market cap. People are calling for $1 Shiba which would be what? In the trillions or quadrillion of dollars of market cap.

I remember a time when the Doge was worth so little that its value was displayed in a way - 1000 Doge = $0.14, but that doesn't mean that this or any other altcoin has anything to do with what will happen to Bitcoin in 2 months or 2 years.

4) We got Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) making Crypto . Com commercials with a “fortune favors the brave” which seems more like telling people to “invest your hard earned money in sh!tcoins”.

Matt Damon is an actor and very good one in my opinion, but who normally invests money because some celebrity said that in an ad? Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat is a trademark of John Wick (Keanu Reeves) - I hope he doesn't get mad at his colleague

6) El Salvador president is buying "420" BTC. Why not 400 or 450 ?

Maybe that's what the prophetess told him when she was divining from his morning coffee

The scenarios I see are as follows.

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> Cause Massive loses for retail traders -> Retail Traders panic and sell everything including Bitcoin -> Bitcoin dumps -> Whales buy Bitcoin dip and Pump it later.

OR

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> They buy ETH and BTC -> Alts get Dumped, BTC gets Pumped -> Whales sell their ETH and BTC for Tether/Fiat -> Cycle repeats 4 years later.

Do you really think everything revolves around Doge? Unless Mr.Mars intervenes again, I don't see how that coin would reach the new ATH or at least get closer to the old one of $0.70. In addition, most still have a new toy that makes millions - a new wow-wow coin is just proof that you can sell people anything, you just have to pack it nicely.

[palle11]

But yea, this may or may not be the top, but if anyone's planning on trying to time it and sell the top, I sincerely wish them the best of luck because they're going to really need it.

The top may still be far from what we have now. Someone selling all the hodling of bitcoin may do that with regret so selling little because of needing to and hodling more may not hurt much. The time has gone for such bear in the past. A close look to the movement of bitcoin from September to October is a good example of a project going forward.

[dragonvslinux]

I’m starting to get deja vu to late 2017 early 2018. Makes me nervous about the BTC and ETH topping soon.

I'm starting to get deja vu of $5K 2017 prices, prior to price going parabolic.

I still think BTC might break ATH again because where is all this NFT and Doge profits going to go? Into stable coins? Sure but first they might go into Bitcoin and Ethereum first since many are trading DeFI and sell into ETH first. I don't want to be a bear but I just don't see the $100-250K happening, at least in the near term or in this cycle. I think we might top somewhere in the $70-80K particulary at $74K which is the Fib Extension or where AUD/CAD currencies are near $100,000.

It'll take a while longer I think, but not much. Bitcoin's dominance still looks indecisive (as to whether more downside or dead cat bounce upwards), but I still see 50% being a realistic target before end of year. Once BTC returns to being the majority of the crypto market, there's a good chance it'll be a catalyst for more altcoin profits returning to the reserve asset. We also saw this in 2017 when bouncing in Autumn from 50% levels. Furthermore, at the moment based on some of the more popular NFT collections around at the moment (those that have 10-100x in recent months), as well as those with index funds, are continuing to sell of back into Ethereum while struggling to maintain their fiat values. It'll only be a matter of time before this liquidity then returns to Bitcoin imo.

The scenarios I see are as follows.

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> Cause Massive loses for retail traders -> Retail Traders panic and sell everything including Bitcoin -> Bitcoin dumps -> Whales buy Bitcoin dip and Pump it later.

OR

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> They buy ETH and BTC -> Alts get Dumped, BTC gets Pumped -> Whales sell their ETH and BTC for Tether/Fiat -> Cycle repeats 4 years later.

I see the second theory as being more accurate. Though at the beginning I'd put first "Investors buy Bitcoin". As it's the BTC that's the initial liquidity that buys into memecoins or general shitcoins that triggers to selling back to ETH/BTC. Alts them usually retain their fiat value while making a new all time high, followed by continuing to lose Bitcoin value. Then the obvious bubble pop where stablecoins are the hot new trend.

Overall I think the initial BTC recovery will continue to be the profit liquidity coming from some of the larger atlcoins, prior to more fresh capital entering the market. After all, the majority of the crypto market remains altcoins for now, so this shift back to Bitcoin can be enough to maintain the upwards momentum, prior to a parabolic move. Basically just like in late 2017 before the final altcoin pop.

Too many speculators are now expecting altcoins to continue outperform Bitcoin, given how bullish the entire market looks right now. There was a 6 month solid altseason, and recently 3 months of consolidation. It's not 100% clear which direction dominance will go, but I'd prefer to be the contrarian (go against the masses) by considering that there will be a 2-3 month Bitcoin season prior to a final altcoin parabolic move.

Somewhere in the middle of all this there will be another NFT season no doubt, when certain collections outperform the best front page altcoins, prior to profit liquidity returning to blockchain platforms, then back to BTC or directly towards stablecoins. The "march bubble" as some people see it is barely a dot on the charts now, based on the amount of volume poured into the NFT market.

[philipma1957]

I see someone loosing their nerve.

This is a good time right now  look for BTC dips and be ready for them.

[adaseb]

Another thing i've been noticing lately is that there is a high rate of scams going on in crypto these days just like in 2017 with scam ICOs and Ponzi scams like Bitconnect. Sure they don't affect BTC directly but its a sign that things are getting out of control.

Today on twitter there was a girl who had like 30K followers. Some devs contacted her to shill some token they were going to create. I think it was called something like "Islaboi" which was referring to those 2 boy wannabe rappers that you see all over crypto twitter.

Long story short, she was a scammer who scammed some scammers pretty much. She rugged the token because they gave her too much of total supply, making it worthless. I think those devs wanted to rug pull it higher but she beat them to it pretty much. She posted some excuse saying that 20 ETH was just too good to pass up and "don't be mad at me" and guess what, a few hours later, she is trying to pull some NFT scam. If you are bored you can search for her on twitter her nickname is something like moon_gurl.

Seems like a repeat of the scammy ICO projects which were launching in late 2017, very lame project but people were so desperate to make a profit they threw money at anything heading their way. This seems to be happening now with meme tokens and NFTs.

[LoyceV]

~ twitter ~ girl ~ followers ~

That's where they went wrong! Life is so much better without caring about "influencers"!

This seems to be happening now with meme tokens and NFTs.

Greed and FOMO can push anything very expensive. Until it crashes.
There was a nice explaination about NFTs in the Wall Observer thread a while ago (but I can't find it back). It showed NFTs only mean something on a certain place and have no use whatsoever anywhere else.

[buwaytress]

I see someone loosing their nerve.

This is a good time right now  look for BTC dips and be ready for them.

I remember end of 2017, early 2018 quite well for this reason. Long-term Bitcoiners (supposedly)... people who'd been in it for years, far longer than me the newcomer, telling me they've lost hope. They saw $20k as the impossible price that was nice to get, and yet ultimately signalled the end. Regulations, the rise of alts, a lack of interest or willingness from institutions or doubletracking from them.

It surprised me then, and it surprises me now that people would lose faith after Bitcoin's proven itself time and again.

Enjoying every satoshi I can get before the real peak comes.

[philipma1957]

I see someone loosing their nerve.

This is a good time right now  look for BTC dips and be ready for them.

I remember end of 2017, early 2018 quite well for this reason. Long-term Bitcoiners (supposedly)... people who'd been in it for years, far longer than me the newcomer, telling me they've lost hope. They saw $20k as the impossible price that was nice to get, and yet ultimately signalled the end. Regulations, the rise of alts, a lack of interest or willingness from institutions or doubletracking from them.

It surprised me then, and it surprises me now that people would lose faith after Bitcoin's proven itself time and again.

Enjoying every satoshi I can get before the real peak comes.

exactly right.  Stack the sats and have no fears.

[Japinat]

I was there in 2017 when the market was gone full bullish and it continues in the 1st quarter of 2018.  Me, as my first time to witness a bull run has no idea that it will soon stop and the market will correct, so as a result, I was able to hold a lot of shitcoins that I thought were legit during the bull run, I learn a lot through that experience.

Comes this year, the bull run was very evident and lots of news came out that are bullish, however, I think just like in the past, the market will eventually have its correction and bitcoin will dump hard but altcoins will dump harder, the same scenario but at least we are knowledgeable enough to handle the situation.

[darewaller]

I was there in 2017 when the market was gone full bullish and it continues in the 1st quarter of 2018.  Me, as my first time to witness a bull run has no idea that it will soon stop and the market will correct, so as a result, I was able to hold a lot of shitcoins that I thought were legit during the bull run, I learn a lot through that experience.

Yeah, only for altcoins, the bull market lasted till the first quarter of 2018 (I remember ethereum peaked as much as 0.11 BTC by that time).

I had watched bull market in 2013 and the bear market in 2014 and also bought some bitcoin when it was trading below $200 in January 2015. Still, I failed to act by the end of 2017 to sell and buy back bitcoins so that I could have enjoyed at least 4x more bitcoins by this time. I believed into continuation of bull run into 2018 but market reacted exactly same manner and showed us up to 80% downfall.

Some people are speculating about continuation of bull run into 2022 this time but not sure what will happen. Only time will answer, I am just watching exactly how I did by the end of 2017.

[adaseb]

So I guess I am just experiencing 2018 PTSD. Seems like many like me were also cautious when we reached $14K and $20K last year and we all assumed it would be the peak and it obviously wasn’t.

What are you guys expecting what will happen when the Mt Gox coins are released to the owners? Anyone got any idea when that will happen, if ever. I’m assuming that most will sell at least a little maybe not their entire balance. I mean the exchange went down when BTC was like $700 and now it’s almost 100x that. Even if they get 1/3rd of their previous coins it’s still a huge gain.

[philipma1957]

So I guess I am just experiencing 2018 PTSD. Seems like many like me were also cautious when we reached $14K and $20K last year and we all assumed it would be the peak and it obviously wasn’t.

What are you guys expecting what will happen when the Mt Gox coins are released to the owners? Anyone got any idea when that will happen, if ever. I’m assuming that most will sell at least a little maybe not their entire balance. I mean the exchange went down when BTC was like $700 and now it’s almost 100x that. Even if they get 1/3rd of their previous coins it’s still a huge gain.

In 2018 the release of tons of asics at good prices went hand and hand with the price drop.

Now if asics flood the market at better prices I would think it is just like 2018.

it is yet to happen.

first test will be the nov1 to nov 30 L7 delivery dates.

If tons and tons tons  drop and diff jumps 65-85% I would be worried

since monday is Nov 1 this will happen soon.

It will be a good indicator one way or the other.

[pooya87]

Everything in OP is news or noise in the bitcoin market. They exist all the time actually! Even during the bear market but people ignore them. We had the same thing all during 2018 and the same during early 2017 and end of 2017 alike.

What matters is the market itself. If we look at the price we can clearly see that if anything the market looks more like mid 2017 instead of end 2017 or early 2018 simply because the rises are too small and too slow whereas the rise by the end of 2017 that ended with the big bubble and the subsequent bear market happened real fast and it was very unstable.
We reached $60k+ extremely slowly (it took 5 months) and have been sitting above $60k for about 2 weeks.

This is not even a tiny bit like 2018 top!

[SquallLeonhart]

If we look at the price we can clearly see that if anything the market looks more like mid 2017 instead of end 2017 or early 2018 simply because the rises are too small and too slow whereas the rise by the end of 2017 that ended with the big bubble and the subsequent bear market happened real fast and it was very unstable.
We reached $60k+ extremely slowly (it took 5 months) and have been sitting above $60k for about 2 weeks.

This is not even a tiny bit like 2018 top!

Does it mean that now we are in the middle of bull run? Indeed that must be a great speculation to have. Honestly market is not trading like how it will do usually by the times of last quarter of a bullish year. It seems like market is trading with the expectation of external trigger to continue upward. Usually all stronger rallies are including sideways in the beginning so this time cannot be an exception.

If we are going to have bull run in 2022 as well then the ATH may occur around 25x of 2017's ATH and not just 10x or 20x like we had in previous bull runs.

[Lucius]

What are you guys expecting what will happen when the Mt Gox coins are released to the owners? Anyone got any idea when that will happen, if ever. I’m assuming that most will sell at least a little maybe not their entire balance. I mean the exchange went down when BTC was like $700 and now it’s almost 100x that. Even if they get 1/3rd of their previous coins it’s still a huge gain.

That Japanese circus is one of the biggest shames for that nation that invokes some kind of rule of law and fast judiciary, and since I have been a member of this forum I read that it will compensate Mt.Gox clients, and that has not happened yet - and the question is how much more time will pass until that moment. The amount mentioned is 150 000 BTC, so although it seems like a lot, I believe that not everyone will decide to sell immediately, and that surely one part will be sold through OTC. I do not believe that this can have a significant impact on the market, although the media will probably try to construct a story about 150 000 BTC that will be dumped on the crypto market.

What matters is the market itself. If we look at the price we can clearly see that if anything the market looks more like mid 2017 instead of end 2017 or early 2018 simply because the rises are too small and too slow whereas the rise by the end of 2017 that ended with the big bubble and the subsequent bear market happened real fast and it was very unstable.

People still believe in the 4-year cycle pattern and it will be hard to get rid of no matter what the market looks like now, with the addition that we now have a pandemic, inflation and supply chain disruption that combined to create a very pessimistic market, of which Bitcoin is only a small part.

[adaseb]

If you guys go to Coinbase Pro and look at the top 20 coins or so you will see that almost every single coin (except BTC) is getting massively pumped. I can’t find any coin which didn’t have a huge pump in the last 2 days. Seems that random coins are getting pumped for no reason what so ever.

You guys remember when every single coin on Poloniex got pumped like crazy back in 2017…2018? It seems that people are buying a little bit of every single coin on that exchange hoping that it’s going to get pumped sometime this week.

But like I said before. “Sh1tcoins pumping for no apparent reason… nothing to worry about just my 2018 PTSD”.

[timerland]

It's certainly quite disconcerting.

If I was a new investor the only way that I'd be comfortable with investing in the current market would be through dollar cost averaging. Yes, it is painful and yes it will limit your upside but this is more than a frothy market right now.

People are distracted and euphoric which is exactly why a) we won't know where the top is but b) it is bound to see a correction soon.

[davis196]

NFTs and shitcoins are being advertised because somebody allows their advertisements.
Crypto ads were banned by Google,now they are allowed again.Of course that all the shitcoin/NFT scammers are going to jump on that wagon and start promoting their shitcoins.
The market is always going a little bit crazy,when greed dominates over fear and the levels of optimism are too high.
I agree that NFTs/DeFi/Shitcoins are the new ICO scams(at least most of them),but they will come and go.
Bitcoin is here to stay.This new wave of greed will pump and dump all cryptocurrency prices(including Bitcoin).
The shitcoins will get dumped and they will disappear.Bitcoin will get dumped,but it will survive.
There's no need of whining about the current shitcoin/token madness. It will go away,sooner or later.

[adaseb]

Remember back in late 2017 when the Crypto markets were going so crazy and KFC decided to accept Bitcoin?

https://twitter.com/kfc_canada/status/951550065411313664


Now Crypto markets are going crazy again and we see this

https://twitter.com/McDonalds/status/1455174998264586243


Its good that history never repeats itself....

Keep in mind that KFC isn't as large as McDonalds. And this was only offered in Canadian KFC stores. That tweet which is 4 years only and only got 6K likes, the Mcdonalds tweet is 2 hours old and already has 10K likes...



EDIT:

Few hours later and this is what is being displayed on the NASDAQ exchange in Wallstreet in New York City

https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1455208066186727430


EDIT 2:

There was a token called $Squid. People have been buying it like crazy. Price went from $0 to $6 a token in a matter of hours. And guess what. You couldn't sell this token at all.
People just started buying it like crazy because it was a Netflix show MEME, nobody read how it works exactly. Nobody read the whitepaper (even if there was one). Apparently only way to sell was to play some game which was very expensive to play. Then the dev did a massive rug pull. Reminds me of the ICO days when people bought ICOs which even said "This is a SCAM ICO" and people still bought it.

https://twitter.com/devchart/status/1455199777164075013



Crazy....

[beerlover]

I had watched bull market in 2013 and the bear market in 2014 and also bought some bitcoin when it was trading below $200 in January 2015. Still, I failed to act by the end of 2017 to sell and buy back bitcoins so that I could have enjoyed at least 4x more bitcoins by this time. I believed into continuation of bull run into 2018 but market reacted exactly same manner and showed us up to 80% downfall.

Some people are speculating about continuation of bull run into 2022 this time but not sure what will happen. Only time will answer, I am just watching exactly how I did by the end of 2017.

It is nice to see another person who has been around here as long as I have been. Most people I talked to get in during 2017 period, and very few got in during 2014 bull period, rarely I end up seeing someone who got in before 2014, I have been here since late 2012 and it has been a wild wild ride. BNB has double or even triple the amount of marketcap that I saw bitcoin in, I remember bitcoin having less than half of bnb's current market cap when I first got in. Not all of us made insane returns, people assume that just because we have been around for longer, that means we made more money and got rich super insanely.

Someone who bought shiba 1 year ago or so, and still hold it today, made more return than I have ever made in my 9+ years in crypto. It is not about being here longer, it is about being able to sniff out the best returns. 2018 was a different beast, it was a very big crash, I doubt that we will ever have that type of crash again, I saw many drops before and after 2018 and none was like that.

[nelson4lov]

I'm glad I saw a post like this.
I am also worried this time, feels like 2017-2018. For sure for those people who experienced the bull market and how it flipped will know the feeling and might have a clue or sign when that will happen again.

A lot of people also claim that this is a double top since a few months ago we were able to record a new all-time high around $64, xxx.

I am not bearish on Bitcoin now, especially how Bitcoin or crypto market cap is bouncing for every dump especially a few days ago. But we should be prepare and be realistic on price targets, we will get there but we should respect the time.

We're getting very close to the point where the market momentum would turn bearish. I was here during the 2017-2018 epic run and it was at the point when everyone was going haywire with the "buy buy buy" was when the market crashed hard, really hard. But I do not think that we're at the top yet since Bitcoin has some more price levels it has to reach before we can say that the price is at the peak.

That's why I've taken a more conservative approach to how I buy, sell or trade now.

[romero121]

It is all about the price that differs with time. During the year 2018 it was Japan that initiated the price pumping through its massive adoption. How effective is the adoption, because by that time the government came forward and insisted to add bitcoin acceptance into the business and educate people to use it. This is something like a futuristic vision, and very few will have such a thinking during those days.

In some parameters the growth pattern is identical. What Japan did in the past is now followed by EL Salvador. By that time many countries were believed to follow Japan, but nothing big took place as market turned bearish. This time some countries seems to have regulated access soon.

[Fundamentals Of]

That's a lot. There's just too much to digest here but I think this is not the 2018 vibes. This is more like another level of crypto and Bitcoin adoption. The circumstances surrounding the very bearish year of 2018 are a lot different than the circumstances surrounding the crypto market today and in the following year.

2018 saw an overselling of Bitcoin. 2022 might see a stronger demand for Bitcoin. Another country might even adopt Bitcoin as an accepted currency.

[yhiaali3]

The second scenario seems closer to happening in my opinion, soon there will be a big pumping of BTC and there will be a big explosion in the market, whether for Bitcoin or Altcoin, perhaps it will be the largest in the history of Crypto so far and we will witness a new ATH to the market in general, but then the whales will sell BTC for USDT / Fiat, at that time This cycle will have come to an end and we will need about 2-3 years (probably after the next halving) to come back to see these numbers again.
In my opinion at the end of this cycle all meme and NFT, DeFi tokens will be eliminated as happened to ICOs in 2017-2018, I hope this cycle will clean up every shitcoin.

[pooya87]

~
Does it mean that now we are in the middle of bull run? Indeed that must be a great speculation to have. Honestly market is not trading like how it will do usually by the times of last quarter of a bullish year. It seems like market is trading with the expectation of external trigger to continue upward. Usually all stronger rallies are including sideways in the beginning so this time cannot be an exception.

Not the middle but near the end. At the same time we are far from being "at top". Keep in mind that the top that was reached by the end of 2017 wasn't just an ATH it was a bubble. You should know there is a difference between them. $1500 was also an ATH in 2017, so was $6000 but neither were "the top". Instead $20000 was both the top and an ATH.
Saying $60k+ is like the 2017 top is equal to saying we are in the same bubble and price has to dump similarly and reach $12k (-80% drop) which is literary impossible.

If we are going to have bull run in 2022 as well then the ATH may occur around 25x of 2017's ATH and not just 10x or 20x like we had in previous bull runs.

If we are looking at the cycle then in my opinion we should use the bottom as the starting point not the previous peak. Which means the 2017 rise was a 133x rise not 20x and for this rise to be of equal size price has to reach $400k+.
Whether it can or not is a different discussion, I believe it has the potential to repeat it once again since the first 3.5 years have been similar and the remaining 0.5-1 year could duplicate the same behavior. But at the same time if it didn't repeat the same pattern then we can also no longer expect the same long bear market with 80% drop. Lack of repetition and not reaching $400k would be the end of 4-year cycles as we know it.

[Poker Player]

I see someone loosing their nerve.

This is a good time right now  look for BTC dips and be ready for them.

I remember end of 2017, early 2018 quite well for this reason. Long-term Bitcoiners (supposedly)... people who'd been in it for years, far longer than me the newcomer, telling me they've lost hope. They saw $20k as the impossible price that was nice to get, and yet ultimately signalled the end. Regulations, the rise of alts, a lack of interest or willingness from institutions or doubletracking from them.

It surprised me then, and it surprises me now that people would lose faith after Bitcoin's proven itself time and again.

Enjoying every satoshi I can get before the real peak comes.

exactly right.  Stack the sats and have no fears.

I am with you both on this one. I don't know if the OP and others who think like him are concerned because they are thinking of selling. As I am still in the accumulation phase, I prefer the price to go up, but if it doesn't go up I buy cheaper.

Everything points to the best is yet to come. I would see the defeatist messages as more logical if we were at the end of December at these levels and without having broken the previous ATH.

[philipma1957]

I see someone loosing their nerve.

This is a good time right now  look for BTC dips and be ready for them.

I remember end of 2017, early 2018 quite well for this reason. Long-term Bitcoiners (supposedly)... people who'd been in it for years, far longer than me the newcomer, telling me they've lost hope. They saw $20k as the impossible price that was nice to get, and yet ultimately signalled the end. Regulations, the rise of alts, a lack of interest or willingness from institutions or doubletracking from them.

It surprised me then, and it surprises me now that people would lose faith after Bitcoin's proven itself time and again.

Enjoying every satoshi I can get before the real peak comes.

exactly right.  Stack the sats and have no fears.

I am with you both on this one. I don't know if the OP and others who think like him are concerned because they are thinking of selling. As I am still in the accumulation phase, I prefer the price to go up, but if it doesn't go up I buy cheaper.

Everything points to the best is yet to come. I would see the defeatist messages as more logical if we were at the end of December at these levels and without having broken the previous ATH.

Yeah lots of negative posts tired of it.

We had a nice long up move from july of 2020 for eth.

and from sept of 2020 for btc.


most of the other coins don’t have a ton of value.

Maybe the ltc/doge double coin algo.

once again I stress to think crash now is simply too soon.

but if we see strong hash rate gain in asic gear I see a possible 2018 repeat 🔂

[michellee]

The top price for bitcoin and ethereum and the other coins is on the way so we can hope that can happen before this end of the year or next year in Q1 or Q2. I am sure many scenarios that we can make related to this situation but we can only guess that without knowing what will happen later. I just want to prepare myself with all of the coins I have because I believe that some of that coins will reach the next ATH, including bitcoin, ethereum and BNB, while ethereum already gets the new ATH before.

So enjoy this moment while we can buy the dip for the coins that have the potential to rise higher. But be careful, there is no guarantee that this situation will continue so we need to prepare ourselves for the worst thing.

[adaseb]

So Elon Musk basically caused huge panic over the weekend about selling billions of his Tesla shares. People were expecting massive 20%> drop, and it dropped about 2-3%. The SP500 about to break to new high, Dow already broke, ETH broke new ATH and BTC about to break ATH pretty soon.

Does any of this make sense? It seems that people are throwing their money into anything these days , even way over-bought stocks like Tesla. Then you got more Tether prints this week.

There are many people who quit their jobs to go full time in stocks and crypto. You got inflation crazy high. Supply shortages on some items.

Honestly it can go either way. Can go to $250K or it can peak at $75K. Impossible to predict any markets these days. Its a coin flip.

[philipma1957]

its easy bro up 🆙 and away😊

no worries at all.

[adaseb]

So today I was eating at a restaurant. It wasn’t one of those fancy dark lite places but something like a Denny’s only slightly fancier. And sitting right next to me was some douchy looking dude wearing sun glasses, indoors. He is ever so cool.

Low and behold I look at his phone and I see he has Binance open. He is talking to his girl friend saying “When i get a signal I click Green to Buy and Red to Sell”.

He also said some douchy things like “Most people got real jobs but I just do this and make way more money”.

So obviously this is a top signal more or less. People without class basically quitting their jobs to trade crypto full time”.

Seems this is becoming almost a daily occurance, you are shopping and someone is talking about Dogecoin, or Shibacoin or Tesla, etc.

Not even during the peak 2017 did I run into so many people who are talking about trading. Way too many people are making too much money trading these days. This can’t end well.

[philipma1957]

So today I was eating at a restaurant. It wasn’t one of those fancy dark lite places but something like a Denny’s only slightly fancier. And sitting right next to me was some douchy looking dude wearing sun glasses, indoors. He is ever so cool.

Low and behold I look at his phone and I see he has Binance open. He is talking to his girl friend saying “When i get a signal I click Green to Buy and Red to Sell”.

He also said some douchy things like “Most people got real jobs but I just do this and make way more money”.

So obviously this is a top signal more or less. People without class basically quitting their jobs to trade crypto full time”.

Seems this is becoming almost a daily occurance, you are shopping and someone is talking about Dogecoin, or Shibacoin or Tesla, etc.

Not even during the peak 2017 did I run into so many people who are talking about trading. Way too many people are making too much money trading these days. This can’t end well.

We are not there yet.  Maybe in 8 months to a year.  Not right now.

[mikeywith]

Not even during the peak 2017 did I run into so many people who are talking about trading. Way too many people are making too much money trading these days. This can’t end well.

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”.

I understand your concern but you need to be bullish in a bullish market like this one, there is only 1 peak and so many tops, every new ATH is more likely NOT the last rather than the opposite, it's really like betting on a ball that's spinning to stop in the next second, a spinning ball is always likely to keep spinning the next second unless you have the measures in place to actually stop it.

With that said, there is nothing wrong with taking some profit if you treat bitcoin as a short to med term investment, DCAing your way in and out of any market will usually be your best move in the long run.

[adaseb]

Giving this a bump. I actually forgot I created this topic. I made this on Oct 28th and we topped less than 2 weeks later on Nov 10th. Honestly I really believed we would have at least 1 more leg up, into the $70's range before dropping. I didn't expect $69K to be the actual top.

Reading the main post again, I can now see how the signs were obvious and hindsight is always 20/20. Especially when people were getting home equity lines of credits and using that money to buy crypto or people quitting their jobs to trade full time.

[Obito]

I wouldn't say it's 2018 vibes, pretty sure that there's something more to all of this happening, probably it's because crypto has gotten bigger already and people are starting to think that it's not that bad to consider getting in that's why we have those events happening, those kinds of things or any similar events didn't happen in 2018 so I am not sure how similar it is.

[bitterguy28]

I wouldn't say it's 2018 vibes, pretty sure that there's something more to all of this happening, probably it's because crypto has gotten bigger already and people are starting to think that it's not that bad to consider getting in that's why we have those events happening, those kinds of things or any similar events didn't happen in 2018 so I am not sure how similar it is.

Well you are questioning the legitimacy of 2017 Bull market as that is not a quality pump instead 2021 does? is this what you are pointing here mate? i may consider that same but as long as there is some kind of manipulation is happening i will also consider this as like what happened in 2018 in which after Bitcoin bullrunning then altcoin season comes.
but this year is different because altcoin is also dumping together with bitcoin not like before that even before 2017 ends the price of bitcoin starts to dump and early January altcoin season was born.

its easy bro up 🆙 and away😊

no worries at all.

This is the spirit we all  wanted to see posted , Thanks for this mate .