Getting early 2018 top vibes!

[philipma1957]

I see someone loosing their nerve.

This is a good time right now  look for BTC dips and be ready for them.

I remember end of 2017, early 2018 quite well for this reason. Long-term Bitcoiners (supposedly)... people who'd been in it for years, far longer than me the newcomer, telling me they've lost hope. They saw $20k as the impossible price that was nice to get, and yet ultimately signalled the end. Regulations, the rise of alts, a lack of interest or willingness from institutions or doubletracking from them.

It surprised me then, and it surprises me now that people would lose faith after Bitcoin's proven itself time and again.

Enjoying every satoshi I can get before the real peak comes.

exactly right.  Stack the sats and have no fears.

[Japinat]

I was there in 2017 when the market was gone full bullish and it continues in the 1st quarter of 2018.  Me, as my first time to witness a bull run has no idea that it will soon stop and the market will correct, so as a result, I was able to hold a lot of shitcoins that I thought were legit during the bull run, I learn a lot through that experience.

Comes this year, the bull run was very evident and lots of news came out that are bullish, however, I think just like in the past, the market will eventually have its correction and bitcoin will dump hard but altcoins will dump harder, the same scenario but at least we are knowledgeable enough to handle the situation.

[darewaller]

I was there in 2017 when the market was gone full bullish and it continues in the 1st quarter of 2018.  Me, as my first time to witness a bull run has no idea that it will soon stop and the market will correct, so as a result, I was able to hold a lot of shitcoins that I thought were legit during the bull run, I learn a lot through that experience.

Yeah, only for altcoins, the bull market lasted till the first quarter of 2018 (I remember ethereum peaked as much as 0.11 BTC by that time).

I had watched bull market in 2013 and the bear market in 2014 and also bought some bitcoin when it was trading below $200 in January 2015. Still, I failed to act by the end of 2017 to sell and buy back bitcoins so that I could have enjoyed at least 4x more bitcoins by this time. I believed into continuation of bull run into 2018 but market reacted exactly same manner and showed us up to 80% downfall.

Some people are speculating about continuation of bull run into 2022 this time but not sure what will happen. Only time will answer, I am just watching exactly how I did by the end of 2017.

[adaseb]

So I guess I am just experiencing 2018 PTSD. Seems like many like me were also cautious when we reached $14K and $20K last year and we all assumed it would be the peak and it obviously wasn’t.

What are you guys expecting what will happen when the Mt Gox coins are released to the owners? Anyone got any idea when that will happen, if ever. I’m assuming that most will sell at least a little maybe not their entire balance. I mean the exchange went down when BTC was like $700 and now it’s almost 100x that. Even if they get 1/3rd of their previous coins it’s still a huge gain.

[philipma1957]

So I guess I am just experiencing 2018 PTSD. Seems like many like me were also cautious when we reached $14K and $20K last year and we all assumed it would be the peak and it obviously wasn’t.

What are you guys expecting what will happen when the Mt Gox coins are released to the owners? Anyone got any idea when that will happen, if ever. I’m assuming that most will sell at least a little maybe not their entire balance. I mean the exchange went down when BTC was like $700 and now it’s almost 100x that. Even if they get 1/3rd of their previous coins it’s still a huge gain.

In 2018 the release of tons of asics at good prices went hand and hand with the price drop.

Now if asics flood the market at better prices I would think it is just like 2018.

it is yet to happen.

first test will be the nov1 to nov 30 L7 delivery dates.

If tons and tons tons  drop and diff jumps 65-85% I would be worried

since monday is Nov 1 this will happen soon.

It will be a good indicator one way or the other.

[pooya87]

Everything in OP is news or noise in the bitcoin market. They exist all the time actually! Even during the bear market but people ignore them. We had the same thing all during 2018 and the same during early 2017 and end of 2017 alike.

What matters is the market itself. If we look at the price we can clearly see that if anything the market looks more like mid 2017 instead of end 2017 or early 2018 simply because the rises are too small and too slow whereas the rise by the end of 2017 that ended with the big bubble and the subsequent bear market happened real fast and it was very unstable.
We reached $60k+ extremely slowly (it took 5 months) and have been sitting above $60k for about 2 weeks.

This is not even a tiny bit like 2018 top!

[SquallLeonhart]

If we look at the price we can clearly see that if anything the market looks more like mid 2017 instead of end 2017 or early 2018 simply because the rises are too small and too slow whereas the rise by the end of 2017 that ended with the big bubble and the subsequent bear market happened real fast and it was very unstable.
We reached $60k+ extremely slowly (it took 5 months) and have been sitting above $60k for about 2 weeks.

This is not even a tiny bit like 2018 top!

Does it mean that now we are in the middle of bull run? Indeed that must be a great speculation to have. Honestly market is not trading like how it will do usually by the times of last quarter of a bullish year. It seems like market is trading with the expectation of external trigger to continue upward. Usually all stronger rallies are including sideways in the beginning so this time cannot be an exception.

If we are going to have bull run in 2022 as well then the ATH may occur around 25x of 2017's ATH and not just 10x or 20x like we had in previous bull runs.

[Lucius]

What are you guys expecting what will happen when the Mt Gox coins are released to the owners? Anyone got any idea when that will happen, if ever. I’m assuming that most will sell at least a little maybe not their entire balance. I mean the exchange went down when BTC was like $700 and now it’s almost 100x that. Even if they get 1/3rd of their previous coins it’s still a huge gain.

That Japanese circus is one of the biggest shames for that nation that invokes some kind of rule of law and fast judiciary, and since I have been a member of this forum I read that it will compensate Mt.Gox clients, and that has not happened yet - and the question is how much more time will pass until that moment. The amount mentioned is 150 000 BTC, so although it seems like a lot, I believe that not everyone will decide to sell immediately, and that surely one part will be sold through OTC. I do not believe that this can have a significant impact on the market, although the media will probably try to construct a story about 150 000 BTC that will be dumped on the crypto market.

What matters is the market itself. If we look at the price we can clearly see that if anything the market looks more like mid 2017 instead of end 2017 or early 2018 simply because the rises are too small and too slow whereas the rise by the end of 2017 that ended with the big bubble and the subsequent bear market happened real fast and it was very unstable.

People still believe in the 4-year cycle pattern and it will be hard to get rid of no matter what the market looks like now, with the addition that we now have a pandemic, inflation and supply chain disruption that combined to create a very pessimistic market, of which Bitcoin is only a small part.

[adaseb]

If you guys go to Coinbase Pro and look at the top 20 coins or so you will see that almost every single coin (except BTC) is getting massively pumped. I can’t find any coin which didn’t have a huge pump in the last 2 days. Seems that random coins are getting pumped for no reason what so ever.

You guys remember when every single coin on Poloniex got pumped like crazy back in 2017…2018? It seems that people are buying a little bit of every single coin on that exchange hoping that it’s going to get pumped sometime this week.

But like I said before. “Sh1tcoins pumping for no apparent reason… nothing to worry about just my 2018 PTSD”.

[timerland]

It's certainly quite disconcerting.

If I was a new investor the only way that I'd be comfortable with investing in the current market would be through dollar cost averaging. Yes, it is painful and yes it will limit your upside but this is more than a frothy market right now.

People are distracted and euphoric which is exactly why a) we won't know where the top is but b) it is bound to see a correction soon.

[davis196]

NFTs and shitcoins are being advertised because somebody allows their advertisements.
Crypto ads were banned by Google,now they are allowed again.Of course that all the shitcoin/NFT scammers are going to jump on that wagon and start promoting their shitcoins.
The market is always going a little bit crazy,when greed dominates over fear and the levels of optimism are too high.
I agree that NFTs/DeFi/Shitcoins are the new ICO scams(at least most of them),but they will come and go.
Bitcoin is here to stay.This new wave of greed will pump and dump all cryptocurrency prices(including Bitcoin).
The shitcoins will get dumped and they will disappear.Bitcoin will get dumped,but it will survive.
There's no need of whining about the current shitcoin/token madness. It will go away,sooner or later.

[adaseb]

Remember back in late 2017 when the Crypto markets were going so crazy and KFC decided to accept Bitcoin?

https://twitter.com/kfc_canada/status/951550065411313664


Now Crypto markets are going crazy again and we see this

https://twitter.com/McDonalds/status/1455174998264586243


Its good that history never repeats itself....

Keep in mind that KFC isn't as large as McDonalds. And this was only offered in Canadian KFC stores. That tweet which is 4 years only and only got 6K likes, the Mcdonalds tweet is 2 hours old and already has 10K likes...



EDIT:

Few hours later and this is what is being displayed on the NASDAQ exchange in Wallstreet in New York City

https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1455208066186727430


EDIT 2:

There was a token called $Squid. People have been buying it like crazy. Price went from $0 to $6 a token in a matter of hours. And guess what. You couldn't sell this token at all.
People just started buying it like crazy because it was a Netflix show MEME, nobody read how it works exactly. Nobody read the whitepaper (even if there was one). Apparently only way to sell was to play some game which was very expensive to play. Then the dev did a massive rug pull. Reminds me of the ICO days when people bought ICOs which even said "This is a SCAM ICO" and people still bought it.

https://twitter.com/devchart/status/1455199777164075013



Crazy....

[beerlover]

I had watched bull market in 2013 and the bear market in 2014 and also bought some bitcoin when it was trading below $200 in January 2015. Still, I failed to act by the end of 2017 to sell and buy back bitcoins so that I could have enjoyed at least 4x more bitcoins by this time. I believed into continuation of bull run into 2018 but market reacted exactly same manner and showed us up to 80% downfall.

Some people are speculating about continuation of bull run into 2022 this time but not sure what will happen. Only time will answer, I am just watching exactly how I did by the end of 2017.

It is nice to see another person who has been around here as long as I have been. Most people I talked to get in during 2017 period, and very few got in during 2014 bull period, rarely I end up seeing someone who got in before 2014, I have been here since late 2012 and it has been a wild wild ride. BNB has double or even triple the amount of marketcap that I saw bitcoin in, I remember bitcoin having less than half of bnb's current market cap when I first got in. Not all of us made insane returns, people assume that just because we have been around for longer, that means we made more money and got rich super insanely.

Someone who bought shiba 1 year ago or so, and still hold it today, made more return than I have ever made in my 9+ years in crypto. It is not about being here longer, it is about being able to sniff out the best returns. 2018 was a different beast, it was a very big crash, I doubt that we will ever have that type of crash again, I saw many drops before and after 2018 and none was like that.

[nelson4lov]

I'm glad I saw a post like this.
I am also worried this time, feels like 2017-2018. For sure for those people who experienced the bull market and how it flipped will know the feeling and might have a clue or sign when that will happen again.

A lot of people also claim that this is a double top since a few months ago we were able to record a new all-time high around $64, xxx.

I am not bearish on Bitcoin now, especially how Bitcoin or crypto market cap is bouncing for every dump especially a few days ago. But we should be prepare and be realistic on price targets, we will get there but we should respect the time.

We're getting very close to the point where the market momentum would turn bearish. I was here during the 2017-2018 epic run and it was at the point when everyone was going haywire with the "buy buy buy" was when the market crashed hard, really hard. But I do not think that we're at the top yet since Bitcoin has some more price levels it has to reach before we can say that the price is at the peak.

That's why I've taken a more conservative approach to how I buy, sell or trade now.

[romero121]

It is all about the price that differs with time. During the year 2018 it was Japan that initiated the price pumping through its massive adoption. How effective is the adoption, because by that time the government came forward and insisted to add bitcoin acceptance into the business and educate people to use it. This is something like a futuristic vision, and very few will have such a thinking during those days.

In some parameters the growth pattern is identical. What Japan did in the past is now followed by EL Salvador. By that time many countries were believed to follow Japan, but nothing big took place as market turned bearish. This time some countries seems to have regulated access soon.

[Fundamentals Of]

That's a lot. There's just too much to digest here but I think this is not the 2018 vibes. This is more like another level of crypto and Bitcoin adoption. The circumstances surrounding the very bearish year of 2018 are a lot different than the circumstances surrounding the crypto market today and in the following year.

2018 saw an overselling of Bitcoin. 2022 might see a stronger demand for Bitcoin. Another country might even adopt Bitcoin as an accepted currency.

[yhiaali3]

The second scenario seems closer to happening in my opinion, soon there will be a big pumping of BTC and there will be a big explosion in the market, whether for Bitcoin or Altcoin, perhaps it will be the largest in the history of Crypto so far and we will witness a new ATH to the market in general, but then the whales will sell BTC for USDT / Fiat, at that time This cycle will have come to an end and we will need about 2-3 years (probably after the next halving) to come back to see these numbers again.
In my opinion at the end of this cycle all meme and NFT, DeFi tokens will be eliminated as happened to ICOs in 2017-2018, I hope this cycle will clean up every shitcoin.

[pooya87]

~
Does it mean that now we are in the middle of bull run? Indeed that must be a great speculation to have. Honestly market is not trading like how it will do usually by the times of last quarter of a bullish year. It seems like market is trading with the expectation of external trigger to continue upward. Usually all stronger rallies are including sideways in the beginning so this time cannot be an exception.

Not the middle but near the end. At the same time we are far from being "at top". Keep in mind that the top that was reached by the end of 2017 wasn't just an ATH it was a bubble. You should know there is a difference between them. $1500 was also an ATH in 2017, so was $6000 but neither were "the top". Instead $20000 was both the top and an ATH.
Saying $60k+ is like the 2017 top is equal to saying we are in the same bubble and price has to dump similarly and reach $12k (-80% drop) which is literary impossible.

If we are going to have bull run in 2022 as well then the ATH may occur around 25x of 2017's ATH and not just 10x or 20x like we had in previous bull runs.

If we are looking at the cycle then in my opinion we should use the bottom as the starting point not the previous peak. Which means the 2017 rise was a 133x rise not 20x and for this rise to be of equal size price has to reach $400k+.
Whether it can or not is a different discussion, I believe it has the potential to repeat it once again since the first 3.5 years have been similar and the remaining 0.5-1 year could duplicate the same behavior. But at the same time if it didn't repeat the same pattern then we can also no longer expect the same long bear market with 80% drop. Lack of repetition and not reaching $400k would be the end of 4-year cycles as we know it.

[Poker Player]

I see someone loosing their nerve.

This is a good time right now  look for BTC dips and be ready for them.

I remember end of 2017, early 2018 quite well for this reason. Long-term Bitcoiners (supposedly)... people who'd been in it for years, far longer than me the newcomer, telling me they've lost hope. They saw $20k as the impossible price that was nice to get, and yet ultimately signalled the end. Regulations, the rise of alts, a lack of interest or willingness from institutions or doubletracking from them.

It surprised me then, and it surprises me now that people would lose faith after Bitcoin's proven itself time and again.

Enjoying every satoshi I can get before the real peak comes.

exactly right.  Stack the sats and have no fears.

I am with you both on this one. I don't know if the OP and others who think like him are concerned because they are thinking of selling. As I am still in the accumulation phase, I prefer the price to go up, but if it doesn't go up I buy cheaper.

Everything points to the best is yet to come. I would see the defeatist messages as more logical if we were at the end of December at these levels and without having broken the previous ATH.

[philipma1957]

I see someone loosing their nerve.

This is a good time right now  look for BTC dips and be ready for them.

I remember end of 2017, early 2018 quite well for this reason. Long-term Bitcoiners (supposedly)... people who'd been in it for years, far longer than me the newcomer, telling me they've lost hope. They saw $20k as the impossible price that was nice to get, and yet ultimately signalled the end. Regulations, the rise of alts, a lack of interest or willingness from institutions or doubletracking from them.

It surprised me then, and it surprises me now that people would lose faith after Bitcoin's proven itself time and again.

Enjoying every satoshi I can get before the real peak comes.

exactly right.  Stack the sats and have no fears.

I am with you both on this one. I don't know if the OP and others who think like him are concerned because they are thinking of selling. As I am still in the accumulation phase, I prefer the price to go up, but if it doesn't go up I buy cheaper.

Everything points to the best is yet to come. I would see the defeatist messages as more logical if we were at the end of December at these levels and without having broken the previous ATH.

Yeah lots of negative posts tired of it.

We had a nice long up move from july of 2020 for eth.

and from sept of 2020 for btc.


most of the other coins don’t have a ton of value.

Maybe the ltc/doge double coin algo.

once again I stress to think crash now is simply too soon.

but if we see strong hash rate gain in asic gear I see a possible 2018 repeat 🔂