Getting early 2018 top vibes!

[adaseb]

I’m starting to get deja vu to late 2017 early 2018. Makes me nervous about the BTC and ETH topping soon.

1) We got 2 doge meme coins which have a top10 market cap. We thought that Doge pumping to almost $1 was nuts but now we got that Shiba coin overtaking doges market cap. People are calling for $1 Shiba which would be what? In the trillions or quadrillion of dollars of market cap.

2) Some guy on Twitter posted a photo of his Uber driver who was trading and driving at the same time. He was up like 30% on his portfolio trading Shiba.

3) We got Wolf of Wall Street who said Bitcoin is a scam who bought some NFTs. Didn’t think he was allowed to trade anymore.

4) We got Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) making Crypto . Com commercials with a “fortune favors the brave” which seems more like telling people to “invest your hard earned money in sh!tcoins”.

5) Coin base is #1 app on App Store and Crypto.com is somewhere in the top5

6) El Salvador president is buying "420" BTC. Why not 400 or 450 ?

7) Snoop Dogg having a NFT as his Twitter avatar

8 ) Kardashians promoting some scam coin

9) Some other rapper pumping some coin and then doing a massive rugging.

10) People quitting their jobs to become "full time crypto traders"

I still think BTC might break ATH again because where is all this NFT and Doge profits going to go? Into stable coins? Sure but first they might go into Bitcoin and Ethereum first since many are trading DeFI and sell into ETH first. I don't want to be a bear but I just don't see the $100-250K happening, at least in the near term or in this cycle. I think we might top somewhere in the $70-80K particulary at $74K which is the Fib Extension or where AUD/CAD currencies are near $100,000.

The scenarios I see are as follows.

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> Cause Massive loses for retail traders -> Retail Traders panic and sell everything including Bitcoin -> Bitcoin dumps -> Whales buy Bitcoin dip and Pump it later.

OR

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> They buy ETH and BTC -> Alts get Dumped, BTC gets Pumped -> Whales sell their ETH and BTC for Tether/Fiat -> Cycle repeats 4 years later.

[GreatArkansas]

I'm glad I saw a post like this.
I am also worried this time, feels like 2017-2018. For sure for those people who experienced the bull market and how it flipped will know the feeling and might have a clue or sign when that will happen again.

A lot of people also claim that this is a double top since a few months ago we were able to record a new all-time high around $64, xxx.

I am not bearish on Bitcoin now, especially how Bitcoin or crypto market cap is bouncing for every dump especially a few days ago. But we should be prepare and be realistic on price targets, we will get there but we should respect the time.

[el kaka22]

I don't want to be a bear but I just don't see the $100-250K happening, at least in the near term or in this cycle. I think we might top somewhere in the $70-80K particulary at $74K which is the Fib Extension or where AUD/CAD currencies are near $100,000.

Do not forget that bitcoin market took just two weeks of time to double from 10k to 20k by December 2017.
We are having exactly two full months left with this year hence anything could happen. Always expect the unexpected.

Still, there will not be any compulsion for any market to have exact same level of growth; fortunately or unfortunately we had similar growth in 2013 and 2017 which enable us to think of another repeating performance in 2021. Lately, I do see people started speculating about persistence of current rally into 2022 which might be a good sign to have anything above $100k levels. I am not having any problem to have new ATHs even after this year .

When there are rays of hope to get into psychologically bigger values, there would be possibilities for FOMO. When more speculations are about the bearish trend in January then everyone will turn cautious which may lead current ATH to remain as it is for next 4 years.

[LoyceV]

~snip "famous influencers"~

I love not having any idea who they are. When will people realize that rich people don't share their interests?

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> Cause Massive loses for retail traders -> Retail Traders panic and sell everything including Bitcoin -> Bitcoin dumps -> Whales buy Bitcoin dip and Pump it later.

OR

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> They buy ETH and BTC -> Alts get Dumped, BTC gets Pumped -> Whales sell their ETH and BTC for Tether/Fiat -> Cycle repeats 4 years later.

I'll add my own prediction: Dogecoin will drop, and try again the next couple of years. It has always done that and I expect it to keep doing that.
NFTs and Defi will end the same way as ICOs and most Forks: forgotten.
ETH will drop hard again but go high too because they'll come up with one or two more ways to sell BS tokens on their centralized and centrally controlled shitcoin.
The Top 10 will look totally different 5 years from now, just like it was totally different 5 years ago.
Bitcoin in the short term will go up and down. In the long term it will go up. Fiat keeps inflating, governments fear Bitcoin for a reason. If government tells me not to use Bitcoin, I know I'm on the right track.

When more speculations are about the bearish trend in January then everyone will turn cautious which may lead current ATH to remain as it is for next 4 years.

Looking at bitcoinaverage.com (Log view), it looks like each cycle take longer to complete. I can imagine block halvings have less and less influence due to the lower block reward, so at some point I wouldn't be surprised if the 4 years cycle gets longer. Say 6 or more years. After the ATH in 2017 I was convinced (or tried to convince myself) that there would be a new ATH in 2021, which is indeed what happened. But from how it looks now, I don't dare predict 2025 for the next one. It could just as well be 2023.

[marine4u]

I’m starting to get deja vu to late 2017 early 2018. Makes me nervous about the BTC and ETH topping soon.

I don't think it will ohair the price action back to the way it was at the beginning of 2018. Everything became the Chinese experiment at the beginning of that year.  What influence does it have on us?  It is not the current scenario, I think, the next scenario will depend more on the stronger intrinsic news but regarding the Bitcoin ETF, is it could be more profitable for whales to dip  and long-term state transitions.
The news has almost cleaned up and cleared the way for a major rally for Bitcoin and ETH to hold the sustainability of distinct history.

[skarais]

I firmly believe that Doge and Shiba are two altcoins that fall into the altcoin category that tends to pump and dump. These two altcoin have provided considerable returns for investors, but they will never feel guilty for not buying these altcoin in the first place. Shiba and Doge investors will sell Shiba and Doge to buy bitcoin or buy USDT or keep it in fiat I think. This is because I believe most of them will also not believe in the future potential of that altcoin starting a massive pumping process due to the influence of the hype and I think they would rather sell it for bitcoin or some other store of value.

[wxa7115]

I'm glad I saw a post like this.
I am also worried this time, feels like 2017-2018. For sure for those people who experienced the bull market and how it flipped will know the feeling and might have a clue or sign when that will happen again.

A lot of people also claim that this is a double top since a few months ago we were able to record a new all-time high around $64, xxx.

I am not bearish on Bitcoin now, especially how Bitcoin or crypto market cap is bouncing for every dump especially a few days ago. But we should be prepare and be realistic on price targets, we will get there but we should respect the time.

There are definitely some signs to worry about, but at least I do not see those signs on bitcoin but I see them on the NFT market, things are getting out of control on that market and now more and more people are putting their money in those coins thinking they are going to become rich, and this is without a doubt a problem, if they were investing in something solid it would not be as bad, but they are investing in the most risky proposition we can find in the market right now.

And when the market of NFTs finally crashes not only scammers will leave with a lot of money, they will also crush the confidence of those people in this market and will make other people that were on the fence about it to not invest or use bitcoin, slowing down the growth of bitcoin and increasing the possibility of a crash as people lose confidence in this market once again.

[philipma1957]

I see onwards and upwards for months and months to come. Circa 2023 before a steep drop. Those that are giant of heart will fare well and the faint hearted will look back at this post and think why didn't I listen to phil.

[el kaka22]

it looks like each cycle take longer to complete. I can imagine block halvings have less and less influence due to the lower block reward, so at some point I wouldn't be surprised if the 4 years cycle gets longer. Say 6 or more years. After the ATH in 2017 I was convinced (or tried to convince myself) that there would be a new ATH in 2021, which is indeed what happened. But from how it looks now, I don't dare predict 2025 for the next one. It could just as well be 2023.

I do not see any possibilities for having longer cycle than 4 years.

Only domination of bulls within 4 year cycle may vary. First 2 halving provided us 1 year long bulls domination and the 3rd halving may get us same 12 months long or 18 to 20 months long bullish trend.

Halving will have higher influence when block reward gets lower. It means all 4 years in a cycle may get dominated by bulls.

4 year cycle will go invalid only after bitcoin attains stable prices (means halving becomes insignificant as miners earn only rewards from tx fees).

If a new ATH happens in 2023 means it will be the consequence of halving occurred in 2020 and when we will have another halving in 2024 (as expected) then we might have more stronger bullish without any room for bears within that 4 years cycle.

[LoyceV]

Halving will have higher influence when block reward gets lower.

Can you explain this? Lower block rewards mean a lower reduction in new coins after each halving, so it's influence diminishes. After a few more halving newly mined Bitcoins will be insignificant.

[el kaka22]

Halving will have higher influence when block reward gets lower.

Can you explain this? Lower block rewards mean a lower reduction in new coins after each halving, so it's influence diminishes. After a few more halving newly mined Bitcoins will be insignificant.

By 17th halving we will have new block rewards less than 0.001 BTC still it doesn't mean miners will get nothing to sell. They will still earn and sell millions of dollars (block-reward+tx fees and thanks to higher BTC value; TX fees may value in millions for same 1 MB block). (Please refer: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply).

By each halving we will have stronger bullish trend in 4 year cycle and then 4 year cycle will disappear due to stable BTC value given that block-reward is zero and miners get and sell only TX fees.

After BTC value becomes stable and due to unexpected higher demand then we may have "unexpected new ATH" (like how gold is doing now) then I agree that ATH may occur at longer time than 4 years.

[buwaytress]

Okay. I had zero idea about this memecoin thing. Heard talk, but not til reading this do I realise just how wild it's become (and yet am not surprised).

I'm definitely, even as far away from social media as I am, fully aware that there are more and more ads telling people how to "make money from your laptop while drinking coffee" aka "put you real money into vapourware defi and keep your fingers crossed.

So glad most Bitcoin users haven't fallen for that nonsense, though I fear the eventual defi fallout will take its toll on Bitcoin markets.

[mk4]

Eh, we're starting to get some but the current market sentiment hasn't reached how bullish the masses were in the end of 2017 in my opinion. And yea, with the NFT hype, it didn't even necessarily started when we were in a bull market; and NFTs didn't exist in 2017 so..

But yea, this may or may not be the top, but if anyone's planning on trying to time it and sell the top, I sincerely wish them the best of luck because they're going to really need it.

[Lucius]

I’m starting to get deja vu to late 2017 early 2018. Makes me nervous about the BTC and ETH topping soon.

If you think an identical scenario will happen again, then you have the advantage of playing the right cards on time - I don't know why that would make you nervous?

1) We got 2 doge meme coins which have a top10 market cap. We thought that Doge pumping to almost $1 was nuts but now we got that Shiba coin overtaking doges market cap. People are calling for $1 Shiba which would be what? In the trillions or quadrillion of dollars of market cap.

I remember a time when the Doge was worth so little that its value was displayed in a way - 1000 Doge = $0.14, but that doesn't mean that this or any other altcoin has anything to do with what will happen to Bitcoin in 2 months or 2 years.

4) We got Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) making Crypto . Com commercials with a “fortune favors the brave” which seems more like telling people to “invest your hard earned money in sh!tcoins”.

Matt Damon is an actor and very good one in my opinion, but who normally invests money because some celebrity said that in an ad? Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat is a trademark of John Wick (Keanu Reeves) - I hope he doesn't get mad at his colleague

6) El Salvador president is buying "420" BTC. Why not 400 or 450 ?

Maybe that's what the prophetess told him when she was divining from his morning coffee

The scenarios I see are as follows.

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> Cause Massive loses for retail traders -> Retail Traders panic and sell everything including Bitcoin -> Bitcoin dumps -> Whales buy Bitcoin dip and Pump it later.

OR

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> They buy ETH and BTC -> Alts get Dumped, BTC gets Pumped -> Whales sell their ETH and BTC for Tether/Fiat -> Cycle repeats 4 years later.

Do you really think everything revolves around Doge? Unless Mr.Mars intervenes again, I don't see how that coin would reach the new ATH or at least get closer to the old one of $0.70. In addition, most still have a new toy that makes millions - a new wow-wow coin is just proof that you can sell people anything, you just have to pack it nicely.

[palle11]

But yea, this may or may not be the top, but if anyone's planning on trying to time it and sell the top, I sincerely wish them the best of luck because they're going to really need it.

The top may still be far from what we have now. Someone selling all the hodling of bitcoin may do that with regret so selling little because of needing to and hodling more may not hurt much. The time has gone for such bear in the past. A close look to the movement of bitcoin from September to October is a good example of a project going forward.

[dragonvslinux]

I’m starting to get deja vu to late 2017 early 2018. Makes me nervous about the BTC and ETH topping soon.

I'm starting to get deja vu of $5K 2017 prices, prior to price going parabolic.

I still think BTC might break ATH again because where is all this NFT and Doge profits going to go? Into stable coins? Sure but first they might go into Bitcoin and Ethereum first since many are trading DeFI and sell into ETH first. I don't want to be a bear but I just don't see the $100-250K happening, at least in the near term or in this cycle. I think we might top somewhere in the $70-80K particulary at $74K which is the Fib Extension or where AUD/CAD currencies are near $100,000.

It'll take a while longer I think, but not much. Bitcoin's dominance still looks indecisive (as to whether more downside or dead cat bounce upwards), but I still see 50% being a realistic target before end of year. Once BTC returns to being the majority of the crypto market, there's a good chance it'll be a catalyst for more altcoin profits returning to the reserve asset. We also saw this in 2017 when bouncing in Autumn from 50% levels. Furthermore, at the moment based on some of the more popular NFT collections around at the moment (those that have 10-100x in recent months), as well as those with index funds, are continuing to sell of back into Ethereum while struggling to maintain their fiat values. It'll only be a matter of time before this liquidity then returns to Bitcoin imo.

The scenarios I see are as follows.

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> Cause Massive loses for retail traders -> Retail Traders panic and sell everything including Bitcoin -> Bitcoin dumps -> Whales buy Bitcoin dip and Pump it later.

OR

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> They buy ETH and BTC -> Alts get Dumped, BTC gets Pumped -> Whales sell their ETH and BTC for Tether/Fiat -> Cycle repeats 4 years later.

I see the second theory as being more accurate. Though at the beginning I'd put first "Investors buy Bitcoin". As it's the BTC that's the initial liquidity that buys into memecoins or general shitcoins that triggers to selling back to ETH/BTC. Alts them usually retain their fiat value while making a new all time high, followed by continuing to lose Bitcoin value. Then the obvious bubble pop where stablecoins are the hot new trend.

Overall I think the initial BTC recovery will continue to be the profit liquidity coming from some of the larger atlcoins, prior to more fresh capital entering the market. After all, the majority of the crypto market remains altcoins for now, so this shift back to Bitcoin can be enough to maintain the upwards momentum, prior to a parabolic move. Basically just like in late 2017 before the final altcoin pop.

Too many speculators are now expecting altcoins to continue outperform Bitcoin, given how bullish the entire market looks right now. There was a 6 month solid altseason, and recently 3 months of consolidation. It's not 100% clear which direction dominance will go, but I'd prefer to be the contrarian (go against the masses) by considering that there will be a 2-3 month Bitcoin season prior to a final altcoin parabolic move.

Somewhere in the middle of all this there will be another NFT season no doubt, when certain collections outperform the best front page altcoins, prior to profit liquidity returning to blockchain platforms, then back to BTC or directly towards stablecoins. The "march bubble" as some people see it is barely a dot on the charts now, based on the amount of volume poured into the NFT market.

[philipma1957]

I see someone loosing their nerve.

This is a good time right now  look for BTC dips and be ready for them.

[adaseb]

Another thing i've been noticing lately is that there is a high rate of scams going on in crypto these days just like in 2017 with scam ICOs and Ponzi scams like Bitconnect. Sure they don't affect BTC directly but its a sign that things are getting out of control.

Today on twitter there was a girl who had like 30K followers. Some devs contacted her to shill some token they were going to create. I think it was called something like "Islaboi" which was referring to those 2 boy wannabe rappers that you see all over crypto twitter.

Long story short, she was a scammer who scammed some scammers pretty much. She rugged the token because they gave her too much of total supply, making it worthless. I think those devs wanted to rug pull it higher but she beat them to it pretty much. She posted some excuse saying that 20 ETH was just too good to pass up and "don't be mad at me" and guess what, a few hours later, she is trying to pull some NFT scam. If you are bored you can search for her on twitter her nickname is something like moon_gurl.

Seems like a repeat of the scammy ICO projects which were launching in late 2017, very lame project but people were so desperate to make a profit they threw money at anything heading their way. This seems to be happening now with meme tokens and NFTs.

[LoyceV]

~ twitter ~ girl ~ followers ~

That's where they went wrong! Life is so much better without caring about "influencers"!

This seems to be happening now with meme tokens and NFTs.

Greed and FOMO can push anything very expensive. Until it crashes.
There was a nice explaination about NFTs in the Wall Observer thread a while ago (but I can't find it back). It showed NFTs only mean something on a certain place and have no use whatsoever anywhere else.

[buwaytress]

I see someone loosing their nerve.

This is a good time right now  look for BTC dips and be ready for them.

I remember end of 2017, early 2018 quite well for this reason. Long-term Bitcoiners (supposedly)... people who'd been in it for years, far longer than me the newcomer, telling me they've lost hope. They saw $20k as the impossible price that was nice to get, and yet ultimately signalled the end. Regulations, the rise of alts, a lack of interest or willingness from institutions or doubletracking from them.

It surprised me then, and it surprises me now that people would lose faith after Bitcoin's proven itself time and again.

Enjoying every satoshi I can get before the real peak comes.