What if Covid 19 broke the 4 year market cycle?

[o48o]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

[DaveF]

Although covid is a big thing and did change & disrupt a lot of markets, and probably will have an impact in this cycle IMO saying any one thing causes a major market change is not an accurate way of looking at things.

4 years ago people were hearing about BTC hitting ATH in the $20k range
How many people started looking into it then? Going back to the big ATH numbers before that it was still easy to dismiss.
But $50k+ $1T+ market cap those make people notice.
ETFs, those also make people notice.
And so on.

-Dave

[NeuroticFish]

Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it

While COVID probably had its effects, I think that institutional investors (Bakkt, MicroStrategy, Tesla, ...) were those with a very big effects, which we cannot even measure yet. They've thrown a snowball down the hill and it's becoming more and more an avalanche with JPMorgan or MasterCard joining in.
I don't know how this market "cycle" will go, I don't know when and how will it end, but it may be indeed different from the others. And iirc this was "predicted" since before COVID came in.

[mk4]

There's a chance. In the past cycles, we didn't have the U.S. federal reserve printing US dollars like total madmen, and we didn't have companies, countries, and cities looking into adding bitcoin to their balance sheets. But yea, I probably don't want to say "this time it's different", but I personally think that if we actually enter a bear market sometime in the next months, I think it wouldn't be as painful like we had in the past.

[otundebis]

The best year for bitcoin has been post-covid-19 and one tend to think perhaps bitcoin is immune to real world issues as bitcoin FA make it superior to fiat and other asset! Having said this, most of the event that trigger a dip or rise in price of bitcoin has been people reactions to events and situation of FUD against bitcoin. I think four year circle will continue for a long period of time until bitcoin becomes unattainable economic wise!

[Evgenklm]

if covid-19 had affected the market, then we would have seen it a long time ago, we live today and see that the pandemic has not ended for a long time, and the cryptocurrency market is confidently on its feet.Therefore, I believe the pandemic does not affect the crypto currency market.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

The time for the disruption was supposed to be early last year, just as the pandemic was starting to take grip. In fact in March, all markets slumped and cryptos weren't spared, but there was a noticeable bounce off the deep.

After continuing to see a bull market shortly after the halving and an all-time-high some months later, just like in the past 4-year cycles. I don't think this one will be any different.

[stomachgrowls]

There's a chance. In the past cycles, we didn't have the U.S. federal reserve printing US dollars like total madmen, and we didn't have companies, countries, and cities looking into adding bitcoin to their balance sheets. But yea, I probably don't want to say "this time it's different", but I personally think that if we actually enter a bear market sometime in the next months, I think it wouldn't be as painful like we had in the past.

Probabilities would be always there thats why we shouldnt really be that confident that it wont really happen about on experiencing the same pain on what we had experienced back into those years but presuming on tha level of adoption and recognition then we can confidently say that crash couldnt really
happen on that fast pace scenario.

Support and recognition level is on different scale which simply implies that it wont really go down easily.In regards with Covid on breaking that 4 year market cycle then i dont really mind much on attaching out these sentiments.

[passwordnow]

A lot of things has happened due to the pandemic and you see that most economies have been reset but the crypto market never stopped and even became wider and better.
If the chance of the covid19 has already broken the market cycle and we've seen it already earlier this year. It's the after all-time high, the sudden crash came and that had made bitcoin $28k. There's a likely that crash was already what you've thought broke the cycle because it happened earlier and made a recovery already.

[GreatArkansas]

For me, Covid 19 is one of the triggers for Bitcoin to start its rally last year.
I remember before that some people started to speculate that once the covid 19 vaccine will be available, Bitcoin will start to decline but look the Bitcoin now, new all-time-high again a few hours ago.

So, my take here, Bitcoin will stay, or covid 19 will stay and Covid 19 - Bitcoin will start no connection at all like how the Bitcoin price will react to this pandemic.

[magnum1010]

Actually, I also think that cycles will be a bit different now and bear market will not be so deep. But I don't think that it is only due to covid 19. Mass adoption of crypto is very wide and there are many people who came to this market, so I think that when the trend will break, bear market will not be so long like it used to be after 2017.

[Wexnident]

Well if we take into account what Covid did, then it definitely brought a different change since well, it's something not seen in the normal 4 year cycle, or rather actually isn't normally seen. It's influence not only reached towards the price crash when the lockdowns started but also till this date where minor influences piled up to become what it is today. No one could say really, but who knows, some people say that Covid did accelerate the growth due to that pause in the normal cycle we had. Still, I don't think we'd reach a bear market that big compared to the past, the community is pretty big compared to what it was before after all.

[rhomelmabini]

Well, it could have been different I guess if we haven't indeed seen the COVID-19 and maybe we could see more levels being broke. But, one thing to note that post COVID-19 has been a great time for those who bought the dips. The question right now is, would the market be different now since there are many players in the market and the 4-year cycle will be broken?

[davis196]

The pandemic had influenced the crypto market back in March 2020,when everyone on the markets(both stock and crypto) was panicking and the BTC price want down pretty fast,but it recovered fast as well.
There's was other influence of COVID over the Bitcoin price ever since.
Perhaps the 2020 US stimulus checks had some impact over the Bitcoin price,but that impact cannot be measured.
All the lockdowns caused by COVID had zero impact over the Bitcoin price and there will be no more lockdowns,due to the high vaccination levels.
The 4 year Bitcoin market cycle(if such cycle really exists,which is debatable) was definitely NOT broken by the pandemic.

[michellee]

The presence of Covid at end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 is a step moving from traditional payment into a digital payment which we saw many companies ask their members and customer to use a digital transaction to pay for the services. While people use digital fiat transactions, they also see the crypto movements and attract them to learn more about crypto.

People who work from home because of Covid know about crypto from social media and suddenly, crypto becomes booming because of meme coins. That moment continues with NFT trends and makes many people join the crypto world.

The Covid will end soon but the transaction will change from traditional into digital payments as we can see now. It will change our future in the payment systems because people will think that digital payment systems are the solution in the future.

[wxa7115]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

It depends, as you say bitcoin is not in a bubble and now it is part of the financial markets, so if the pandemic affects the economy then bitcoin can be affected by it as well, however I see the possible impacts of the pandemic on the price of bitcoin as positive.

Even before the pandemic governments were heavily indebted and after the pandemic this is way worse, the taxes they got went down and the economy slowed down to critical levels, this means that all the signs point towards a long economic crisis, which is the very reason why bitcoin was created, so I think the 4 year market cycle could be broken in a positive way for bitcoin.

[yohananaomi]

The presence of Covid at end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 is a step moving from traditional payment into a digital payment which we saw many companies ask their members and customer to use a digital transaction to pay for the services. While people use digital fiat transactions, they also see the crypto movements and attract them to learn more about crypto.

People who work from home because of Covid know about crypto from social media and suddenly, crypto becomes booming because of meme coins. That moment continues with NFT trends and makes many people join the crypto world.

The Covid will end soon but the transaction will change from traditional into digital payments as we can see now. It will change our future in the payment systems because people will think that digital payment systems are the solution in the future.

Indeed, no one will be able to dampen the rapid progress of technology, as well as the presence of digital transactions, which added during the pandemic, everyone wants to be able to avoid using fiat because it is allegedly one of the passive carriers of transmission.

so the momentum of crypto is also a conversation because of the ease that can be done with the use of crypto. It's only natural that at this time everyone is trying to at least get to know what crypto is and will then use crypto services as well.

It's true, this technological advancement will be irreplaceable for some time to come that the use of digital transactions makes it very easy for everyone to do anything only with the latest technology devices that can be carried or anything connected to the internet.

[palle11]

but I personally think that if we actually enter a bear market sometime in the next months, I think it wouldn't be as painful like we had in the past.

I believe even a bear market this time won't drop alot till it goes back as has been the case in 2018. Bitcoin has don good move up and the correction didn't last much and it went up. Many factors are responsible for this strong support of bitcoin and adoption contributing to it. Despite China creating fud all around , hodlers are still optimistic for more bull.

[2double0]

There were retail investors back then who drove the value of btc in those past 4 year cycles (I don't know why they kept the number at 4 then), this time institutions are backing bitcoin and other few altcoins in top 10 and it is also helping in promoting the crypto economy to the levels we never saw in the past. However, Covid outbreaks again in some countries and has become a threat again for countries where it settled down gradually in numbers and if that happens, we may again enter a bear market to change the market sentiments. I don't know why we are talking about Covid only while the most significant reason behind btc's rise is the debacle of USD and Fed's monetary policies.

[Ararbermas]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

if i remember it correctly, the first year of covid19 crypto market is really struggling as well like there's no exception that time wherein all the businesses are halted literally.. But months passing by crypto is gaining more attention and it's because a lot people can't go outside to work and they preferred to find work online(work from home), and yes that's how crypto market gradually increasing by the help of the social media there's alot of people become new investors and etc. especially when NFTS projects emerged, wherein from the dip most of the top crypto grown fast without knowing... Perhaps if there's no covid19, i think crypto will not become popular today. I mean there still a lot of people have doubts and against in it., now because of covid19 they figured it out that BITCOIN and cryptp market is really existing and not a scam.  

[zaesvlas]

We have already witnessed dramatic changes in the market during the pandemic. As for me, even on a number of these changes, enough conclusions can already be drawn.

[michellee]

The presence of Covid at end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 is a step moving from traditional payment into a digital payment which we saw many companies ask their members and customer to use a digital transaction to pay for the services. While people use digital fiat transactions, they also see the crypto movements and attract them to learn more about crypto.

People who work from home because of Covid know about crypto from social media and suddenly, crypto becomes booming because of meme coins. That moment continues with NFT trends and makes many people join the crypto world.

The Covid will end soon but the transaction will change from traditional into digital payments as we can see now. It will change our future in the payment systems because people will think that digital payment systems are the solution in the future.

Indeed, no one will be able to dampen the rapid progress of technology, as well as the presence of digital transactions, which added during the pandemic, everyone wants to be able to avoid using fiat because it is allegedly one of the passive carriers of transmission.

so the momentum of crypto is also a conversation because of the ease that can be done with the use of crypto. It's only natural that at this time everyone is trying to at least get to know what crypto is and will then use crypto services as well.

It's true, this technological advancement will be irreplaceable for some time to come that the use of digital transactions makes it very easy for everyone to do anything only with the latest technology devices that can be carried or anything connected to the internet.

The use of digital currency increased in this pandemic because that can solve the transmitting of the virus from paper money and have less contact between the people. So that is why people prefer to use digital fiat to buy something and while they use digital fiat, they see much advertising about crypto and make them curious.

Yes, crypto gets a good momentum to give people who want to know another payment option. So the presence of crypto is at the right time and makes many people know about crypto. Besides that, the crypto world itself gets booming with the NFT projects and makes many people more curious about the crypto's inside.

The technology will still develop and grow and that is happening with crypto with blockchain, giving more chances for people to join in crypto. People also can make money from crypto by using the technology to have a new investment for the short and long term.

[Baofeng]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Well it could have some effects not just on crypto but the whole financial markets.

And then we also have bitcoin's narrative changes as well, institution money flowing like no other bull run before, there are government like El Salvador investing and then some known and unknown companies investing on bitcoin as well as hedge.

So the whole cycle might change not just due to Covid-19. There are so many for bitcoin in the table right now that this could be the first time that we might break the known 4 year cycle.

[palle11]

I think covid-19 is the revolution that came for cryptocurrency. I still remember the covid-19 protocols and one of them that was very seriously preached was the social distancing and this was particularly about avoiding contacts and which fiat contact too was feared. This started taking financial transactions seriously to online and no better means to do that than to use the means already existing and cryptocurrency was ready to that.
Also apart from jobs going online, people out of fear started investing extra money in bitcoin and cryptocreency, and support from American government to the people during last year, most found there way to cryptocurrency. This was a revolution that met halving.

[Luzin]

Also apart from jobs going online, people out of fear started investing extra money in bitcoin and cryptocreency, and support from American government to the people during last year, most found there way to cryptocurrency. This was a revolution that met halving.

If I understand your sentence, it seems like you don't agree that covid 19 will break the 4-year cycle of BTC. I agree with you, it seems that the effect of Covid-19 on the global economy does not make the BTC market quiet. If you look at the current developments that are the opposite, the crypto market is growing. Some countries are trying to adopt it, just look at El Salvador they believe with BTC they can improve their country's finances. Even the development of crypto is very good, because innovation always arises. Yesterday the defi boom and today there is NFT. The next one will probably be a lot.

[DarkDays]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

I get that this is just an idea, but I'd like to ask you if you saw an effect of the COVID19 on the crypto markets?

From where I stand, unlike financial institutions or businesses that rely on fiat as their economy outside of the crypto space, the cryptocurrency models have not suffered much at the economic crises at the hands of the pandemic. In fact, I saw it getting stronger where investors where pouring in their money into digital assets because the real assets where not as tangible anymore.

Anyway, would love to see other people's thoughts on this.

[jrrsparkles]

I believe covid 19 actually reduced a year in this cycle because at the beginning of 2020 the condition of bitcoin was so pathetic because it went to $3K from $20K so many people tried to supress it with their influence but once again the action speaks better than words which made bitcoin to be on the run for $70K so its actually 25 times higher returns or in percentage it is about 2500%.

With more adoption I expect the cycle to reduce t6hen only it will reach a stable and less volatile state at some point then only those old men will accept bitcoin is actually a currency.

[wxa7115]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Well it could have some effects not just on crypto but the whole financial markets.

And then we also have bitcoin's narrative changes as well, institution money flowing like no other bull run before, there are government like El Salvador investing and then some known and unknown companies investing on bitcoin as well as hedge.

So the whole cycle might change not just due to Covid-19. There are so many for bitcoin in the table right now that this could be the first time that we might break the known 4 year cycle.

We will have to wait and see but I think we are close to be able to break away from the 4 year cycle as all the signs are in favor of bitcoin, bitcoin is a store of value and during times of an economic crisis that is caused by too much fiat being printed the most valuable thing for people is a form of money that does not lose value over time.

Gold has been performing this function but there are signs which are indicating that people are preferring to get bitcoin over gold, and this includes investors, so if bitcoin can take a great deal of the people which are interested in protecting their capital then the growth we have been experimenting will continue for a very long time, as the issues we are facing with the high level of inflation will not go away any time soon.

[crzy]

With more adoption I expect the cycle to reduce t6hen only it will reach a stable and less volatile state at some point then only those old men will accept bitcoin is actually a currency.

This could be more possible as the adoption of many countries started, the cycle might reduce and we might be able to see more cycle in the coming years. Honestly, Covid19 doesn't affect Bticoin that much since there's still a lot of good news are the price still able to make its new ATH so technically, the cycle continues on a better result.

[Johnyz]

With more adoption I expect the cycle to reduce t6hen only it will reach a stable and less volatile state at some point then only those old men will accept bitcoin is actually a currency.

This could be more possible as the adoption of many countries started, the cycle might reduce and we might be able to see more cycle in the coming years. Honestly, Covid19 doesn't affect Bticoin that much since there's still a lot of good news are the price still able to make its new ATH so technically, the cycle continues on a better result.

The cycle keeps on happening, we are playing around that circle and yes I also don’t think Covid19 affects that cycle its more on boosting the market adoption since Covid19 is a wakeup call to everyone that the government can print money as much as they could, and that makes them think to buy more cryptocurrency instead.

[el kaka22]

I hope that it really does, there is a great feeling of this amazing constantly increasing situation we are in, normally recovery from ATH takes years but it didn't happen this time around. Normally we reach to a level where we get to be like in 2014 where it reached 1.4k and then it took us next ath to 2017 December, then it took us 2021 to reach the next ATH again, but now it took us just 4 months or maybe 5 months to reach to a whole new ATH.

This is why I believe that either covid broke it or something else broke it but that 4 year cycle may ended this year and that is a great feeling. All that waiting was way too much, I really didn't want to wait another 4 years to be this high, I am quite happy that we recovered quickly.

[worle1bm]

The pandemic had influenced the crypto market back in March 2020,when everyone on the markets(both stock and crypto) was panicking and the BTC price want down pretty fast,but it recovered fast as well.
There's was other influence of COVID over the Bitcoin price ever since.
Perhaps the 2020 US stimulus checks had some impact over the Bitcoin price,but that impact cannot be measured.
All the lockdowns caused by COVID had zero impact over the Bitcoin price and there will be no more lockdowns,due to the high vaccination levels.
The 4 year Bitcoin market cycle(if such cycle really exists,which is debatable) was definitely NOT broken by the pandemic.

Actually this pandemic has helped crypto market to reach new levels of investment as we have seen coinbase listing and other exchanges also witnessed huge rush in userbase and demand for btc and some other coins whereas people avoid the traditional stock market because the companies were not showing any progress and market was down and only pharmaceutical and vaccine makers share price was surging.So covid definitely hit the market hard globally but now slowly it's recovering and we might see people having more interest in crypto market which could benefit us.

[kapalmabur]

The pandemic had influenced the crypto market back in March 2020,when everyone on the markets(both stock and crypto) was panicking and the BTC price want down pretty fast,but it recovered fast as well.
There's was other influence of COVID over the Bitcoin price ever since.
Perhaps the 2020 US stimulus checks had some impact over the Bitcoin price,but that impact cannot be measured.
All the lockdowns caused by COVID had zero impact over the Bitcoin price and there will be no more lockdowns,due to the high vaccination levels.
The 4 year Bitcoin market cycle(if such cycle really exists,which is debatable) was definitely NOT broken by the pandemic.

Actually this pandemic has helped crypto market to reach new levels of investment as we have seen coinbase listing and other exchanges also witnessed huge rush in userbase and demand for btc and some other coins whereas people avoid the traditional stock market because the companies were not showing any progress and market was down and only pharmaceutical and vaccine makers share price was surging.So covid definitely hit the market hard globally but now slowly it's recovering and we might see people having more interest in crypto market which could benefit us.

Indeed, during the pandemic, many people were interested and turned to cryptocurrencies,
and without realizing it has a positive impact on the crypto market,
In fact, currently stocks are still favored by many people, but when compared to crypto, the spike is really big

[tygeade]

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Basically the bitcoin market's cycle of 4 year long is purely based on the halving event. Only when there is a interference in the internet, we could expect halving to have any disturbance otherwise it will keep on happening and all other things will be running as expected.

I agree that covid and its lockdown situations had heavily hit almost all of our day to day life but bitcoin network is running as per scheduled hence we cannot expect any differences in 4 year market cycle but we could expect any differences in the duration of bullish or bearish trends of bitcoin market within the current market cycle. It means we may have longer bullish or bearish trend than previous 4 year cycles.

[Stedsm]

It seems like it isn't Covid, but a few other things of which traders are in huge fear about.
The day MtGox funds release news broke, was the day I have been carefully watching the markets because I was skeptical about this happening. And then came another news - https://www.pcmag.com/news/us-department-of-justice-is-selling-56m-worth-of-bitcoin

I believe that both these news have played a vital role in BTC price breakdown (again). I don't think BTC will touch its ATH again this year and December may prove to be a stable month rather than bullish.

[Smartvirus]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Apparently, a lot of us think that way  or did thought that way at some point but, in light with the recent development on the market and tweets from idolised persons or  elites when it comes to investments in the society, causing some major moves in the market, one has got to think over notions on the market. You've got to accept that, the market is superior and don't always follow analysis but could move drastically in any direction based on persisting constraints of the moment. Which means, one has got to be flexible enough to accommodate change and adjust on trading strategies.

[Baofeng]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Well it could have some effects not just on crypto but the whole financial markets.

And then we also have bitcoin's narrative changes as well, institution money flowing like no other bull run before, there are government like El Salvador investing and then some known and unknown companies investing on bitcoin as well as hedge.

So the whole cycle might change not just due to Covid-19. There are so many for bitcoin in the table right now that this could be the first time that we might break the known 4 year cycle.

We will have to wait and see but I think we are close to be able to break away from the 4 year cycle as all the signs are in favor of bitcoin, bitcoin is a store of value and during times of an economic crisis that is caused by too much fiat being printed the most valuable thing for people is a form of money that does not lose value over time.

Gold has been performing this function but there are signs which are indicating that people are preferring to get bitcoin over gold, and this includes investors, so if bitcoin can take a great deal of the people which are interested in protecting their capital then the growth we have been experimenting will continue for a very long time, as the issues we are facing with the high level of inflation will not go away any time soon.

Yeah, that's what I'm trying to say, maybe we break away from the 4 year cycle this year because of the complete U-turn as I have explain earlier. One thing that can still be in our favour is adoption, as we gets closer and more individuals turn to bitcoin instead of gold, we might see a growth that will make the market somewhat 'stable', thus we will have new cycles on the horizon. This might take years though, but at least this cycle could be a good gauge in the coming future.

[sana54210]

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

I agree that there is a bit of a different feeling to crypto nowadays. It doesn't feel like the crypto I known for 8+ years, it feels like a brand new thing. Back in the day it was feeling like something that we did and not even knew if it was legal. I remember my early days and we literally assumed it was "gray area" legally because it didn't had any laws making it illegal but there wasn't anything making it legal neither.

At the end of the day, we reached to a point where Elon sells Tesla cars with doge... well don't know if he does but it is totally possible at this point. Which is why I am feeling a bit weird about these days, but I am super happy about it as well. Don't get me wrong, you need to be insane to be not happy about the current situation, I just feel baffled by how far we have come and that's it, it is definitely something awesome.

[sheenshane]

Well, I don't think there is any chance the market will get broken. I mean, let's be objective since the pandemic started, the crypto market only got more substantial and more popular. I mean, more and more people are interested in crypto, and not only young people but experienced businessmen as well!

Because most of the transactions are getting online now, many started to adopt cryptocurrency and Bitcoin and since during the pandemic we are able to reach the peak I think the cycle continues for good and this pandemic will be remembered as a great start for huge Bitcoin adoption. We’re into correction right now just like a normal cycle but I think after this, we will rise again and since we are still on Pandemic making transactions online are still necessary for a more convenient way.

I tend to agree and not only by that, but we are also in the digital transactions since we don't want a physical contact like using a traditional currency which is fiat.  As I noticed, all digital currencies have been increased usage including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.  The price was increased because it triggered the pandemic covid-19 which is until now we still using it.

There could be a worst but it's not painful like a few years past because as we can see there are too many adoptions in most countries and a lot of good news happening around us.  So I think pandemic was also the reason it has a wide adoption because of this electronic cash and Bitcoin is one of them.

[TelolettOm]

Many countries have recovered from Covid although some are still struggling. There are of course some conditions where there will be another upcoming covid19 waves moreover in the end of the year and also other big holidays.
However so far, Covid19 doesn't really give bad impact to crypto market.
It seems that the price still  keep rising up during covid19, precisely, keeping up again and again.
For, many people prefer to stay working only and turn their investment also on crypto.

[Slow death]

if there is something that benefits from covid and that something is bitcoin, when people are at home they are on the internet searching for various things and with that they can come across bitcoin and buy bitcoin. when people lose jobs they look for a way to earn money and with this pandemic many people lose jobs and there are people who decided to invest in bitcoin, the pandemic was something beneficial to bitcoin.

Many countries have recovered from Covid although some are still struggling.

the rich countries took all the vaccines and vaccinated their people and opened the trade to recover while the poor countries that don't have much vaccine continue with the same measures and their economy is deteriorating

[Mpamaegbu]

What if we've Ebola or any other deadly contagious disease worse than Covid19 out there before the next circle? What if this earth comes to an end before then? What if... Well, it goes to show how uncertain life in general can be. I mean, no one saw this present situation coming during the last Bitcoin halving. No one predicted the globe was going to be hit by this pandemic. But the reality is here now with us. However, let me state speedily that Coronavirus hasn't been gloomy for the crypto industry, at all. If anything, it helped boost it during the days of "stay at home and isolate" A lot of people found solace in online businesses and Bitcoin and the crypto industry became a hive of a sort.

[wxa7115]

Many countries have recovered from Covid although some are still struggling. There are of course some conditions where there will be another upcoming covid19 waves moreover in the end of the year and also other big holidays.
However so far, Covid19 doesn't really give bad impact to crypto market.
It seems that the price still  keep rising up during covid19, precisely, keeping up again and again.
For, many people prefer to stay working only and turn their investment also on crypto.

We are still not out of the pandemic, just yesterday the European markets went down as investors are worried about what is happening there and the 4th wave, if to this we add inflation and the fact that many workers are not responding to the economic signals and are still unemployed despite the fact there are many positions available then this does not give us a picture of the world economy as recovering from the pandemic.

However economic uncertainty is good for bitcoin, and the more people are afraid of a possible collapse the higher the price of bitcoin will be, so this plays in our favor.

[tygeade]

What if we've Ebola or any other deadly contagious disease worse than Covid19 out there before the next circle? What if this earth comes to an end before then? What if... Well, it goes to show how uncertain life in general can be. I mean, no one saw this present situation coming during the last Bitcoin halving. No one predicted the globe was going to be hit by this pandemic. But the reality is here now with us. However, let me state speedily that Coronavirus hasn't been gloomy for the crypto industry, at all. If anything, it helped boost it during the days of "stay at home and isolate" A lot of people found solace in online businesses and Bitcoin and the crypto industry became a hive of a sort.

Ebola has been around for a while and it did not really change much to be honest. There could be even worse pandemic after this one, however I do not think that it would be the same, we have international travel a lot more compared to history and that is why the spread was a lot easier, people move around like crazy and they spread it to every other nation. However it is a 4 year cycle, and I doubt that we are going to get a worse one before the next cycle, hell I am not sure if this one will be over by that time.

It means that we need to learn to live with pandemic, masks on at all times, social distancing and all that. We are not as careful as we used to be, I went to the gym other day and nobody wore masks, it would be horrible to run on the treadmill with a mask anyway so I took mine off as well. But, it is still a "care" thing, we still need to be careful.

[jaberwock]

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Well,you’re kind of right about that, it seems like the COVID-19 that took place last year disrupted a lot of things. The price of Bitcoin normally would have been going down heavily by now, as it would usually face a serious market correction after the bull run takes place. But this year has been quite different as the market keeps on increasing, even after it has reached an all time high price twice.

It has been around $57,000 as of recent, and this was the same thing that happened before it reached another all time high price, so I am also assuming that it might as well move up again and hit another high price again which this time around is going to be around $70,000. Or maybe it is quite possible that the bull run is over now.

[elisabetheva]

Many countries have recovered from Covid although some are still struggling. There are of course some conditions where there will be another upcoming covid19 waves moreover in the end of the year and also other big holidays.
However so far, Covid19 doesn't really give bad impact to crypto market.
It seems that the price still  keep rising up during covid19, precisely, keeping up again and again.
For, many people prefer to stay working only and turn their investment also on crypto.

Yes we can see that since the pandemic many people have started to be interested in crypto,
and we cannot deny that the pandemic has had a fairly positive impact on crypto,
apart from that I really hope that conditions can return to normal and in the future crypto will continue to develop

there is no survey that states that there is an increase in usage during a pandemic, but many transactions during a pandemic are likely to occur, because crypto players are making transactions in crypto more often. but the addition of people joining crypto doesn't seem significant. because how do they want to do activities if they themselves are also in trouble with finances which may be a priority scale.

but I agree with the pandemic, many are starting to understand what crypto is but can't directly interact quickly and need to adjust to the situation where at that time also in difficult financial times.
This is just my perception, who knows it could be wrong.

[nicolerichardson]

The Crypto market has been trending upwards for a while now. The pandemic helped cryptocurrencies on their way up and is today more profitable than traditional investments.

[wxa7115]

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Well,you’re kind of right about that, it seems like the COVID-19 that took place last year disrupted a lot of things. The price of Bitcoin normally would have been going down heavily by now, as it would usually face a serious market correction after the bull run takes place. But this year has been quite different as the market keeps on increasing, even after it has reached an all time high price twice.

It has been around $57,000 as of recent, and this was the same thing that happened before it reached another all time high price, so I am also assuming that it might as well move up again and hit another high price again which this time around is going to be around $70,000. Or maybe it is quite possible that the bull run is over now.

The pandemic is the very definition of a black swan. It came out of nowhere and it is affecting every single aspect of our lives, however despite all of this bitcoin has held strong and it is doing a way better job at maintaining and increasing its value than traditional currencies.

This tells me that the pandemic has in fact changed the game and since bitcoin was born after the 2007 and 2008 economic crisis we suffered then it makes sense that it can resist so well such a large impact from a black swan, and if the economy keeps facing such huge issues to recover then it is possible the price of bitcoin will keep increasing, defying the 4 year market cycle in which bitcoin has been since its creation.

[zaesvlas]

Judging by the latest news, this may even be a very real scenario. I just watch that once a year a new strain is found steadily.

[dimonstration]

What if we've Ebola or any other deadly contagious disease worse than Covid19 out there before the next circle? What if this earth comes to an end before then? What if... Well, it goes to show how uncertain life in general can be. I mean, no one saw this present situation coming during the last Bitcoin halving. No one predicted the globe was going to be hit by this pandemic. But the reality is here now with us. However, let me state speedily that Coronavirus hasn't been gloomy for the crypto industry, at all. If anything, it helped boost it during the days of "stay at home and isolate" A lot of people found solace in online businesses and Bitcoin and the crypto industry became a hive of a sort.

The fact that everything happens via online now helps bitcoin or crypto to be more popular as we are finding much better way to lessen the hassle of mobile banking or bank transactions. The market become popular to those who want to stay away from stocks decline. Covid 19 is a global crisis that affects every economy good thing during pandemic there are personalities who proves that there is profit in crypto and many coins got hype during pandemic.

[Maslate]

Covid-19 even helps bitcoin to reach a new ATH, so I think we are safe even with covid-19 is still here. Also, experts already found the vaccine for the virus, so we are like living a normal life again although there are still some restrictions, and while our economy is recovering, it's a good help for crypto and for the stock market as people will start investing again.

[Sihab76]

Covid-19 even helps bitcoin to reach a new ATH, so I think we are safe even with covid-19 is still here. Also, experts already found the vaccine for the virus, so we are like living a normal life again although there are still some restrictions, and while our economy is recovering, it's a good help for crypto and for the stock market as people will start investing again.

There is a lot of logic to your words because the cryptocurrency market has improved a lot in the run up to Corona. Despite the global economic downturn caused by the Karna virus, cryptocurrency has not been affected.

[geegaw]

Covid-19 even helps bitcoin to reach a new ATH, so I think we are safe even with covid-19 is still here. Also, experts already found the vaccine for the virus, so we are like living a normal life again although there are still some restrictions, and while our economy is recovering, it's a good help for crypto and for the stock market as people will start investing again.

Yes, Covid is like a drill that pierces doubts and helps people ignore bad prejudice against bitcoin, it forces people to stay at home to study more about making money online and from there get the basics of bitcoin, the new ATH is the achievement of this somewhat binding campaign but after all, the satisfaction of everyone from old to new is very high. But this too much help is forming poison, Covid is getting more serious and vaccines from experts are not keeping up with Covid's regeneration and renewal, gloom and crisis are once again enveloping

[doremonchina]

The quantity of COVID-19 affirmed cases has outperformed 262 million around the world, with the loss of life surpassing 5.2 million yet presently Improving yet weak credit markets. We enter 2022 with generally sure credit force reflecting good financing conditions and an amazing monetary recuperation This could be wrecked if perseveringly high expansion pushes national banks to forcefully fix money related approach setting off huge market instability and repricing chances New COVID-19 variations could likewise subvert certainty and recuperation prospects The most fragile spaces of credit showcases frequently still profoundly touchy to the continuous effect of the pandemic are most uncovered especially exceptionally utilized corporates and some developing business sectors.

[beerlover]

Unfortunately there are thousands of people dying every single day, it is just very upsetting to see that happen, but it just happens and we have to accept the fact that we are not doing enough to stop this. Normally in a perfect world, we would have a situation where everyone would stay either at home, or a place work provides and everyone keeps doing everything without ever getting close to each other and everything stops.

We just do bare minimum working to survive, like grocery stores and hospitals would still work, but even grocery stores would turn online and nobody has to leave their house and everything would be perfectly ready.

Truckers and shelf fillers and all of that retail workers would end up working separately and never around each other, and all of them would be provided with either a car, or another way of transportation so they wouldn't meet with anyone, everyone else would be at home, working online, and we would do this for 6 months globally with lockdown and not a single soul would be allowed to not get vaccinated. In that case we would see under 100 death per day, instead of 10k, but unfortunately we are not ready for that, even a few months almost caused riots and that was even without vaccination.

[2double0]

Unfortunately there are thousands of people dying every single day, it is just very upsetting to see that happen, but it just happens and we have to accept the fact that we are not doing enough to stop this. Normally in a perfect world, we would have a situation where everyone would stay either at home, or a place work provides and everyone keeps doing everything without ever getting close to each other and everything stops.

We just do bare minimum working to survive, like grocery stores and hospitals would still work, but even grocery stores would turn online and nobody has to leave their house and everything would be perfectly ready.
<<>>

Nobody is ready to understand the seriousness of situation as how it is going, how people are getting affected, how new variants are killing even vaccinated people on a daily basis, etc. because people have that itch in their asses that make them get out of their home only because they saw decline in cases. But again, as cases are increasing, possibilities are endless for a lockdown and if it is imposed in major countries again, then market prices of anything will suffer.

[blockman]

Covid-19 even helps bitcoin to reach a new ATH, so I think we are safe even with covid-19 is still here. Also, experts already found the vaccine for the virus, so we are like living a normal life again although there are still some restrictions, and while our economy is recovering, it's a good help for crypto and for the stock market as people will start investing again.

There is a lot of logic to your words because the cryptocurrency market has improved a lot in the run up to Corona. Despite the global economic downturn caused by the Karna virus, cryptocurrency has not been affected.

Despite the covid-19 has come to the world, most markets were affected. The entire economy of each country has been down but the crypto market has remained to be stable and even became better during it.
We're about to get out of this pandemic soon but I just don't like the new measures that has been set for most countries, so if you're going to go in another country, there's another set of rules that you have to follow despite vaccinated or not.

[wxa7115]

Judging by the latest news, this may even be a very real scenario. I just watch that once a year a new strain is found steadily.

Many new variants have been found as the virus is mutating very rapidly, however we only learn of the dangerous variations that eventually emerge, this is the case right now with omicron which has the whole world worried about, politicians are claiming the vaccines are still effective but this is not a sure thing so the markets and the scientific community are extremely worried.

And even if the vaccines are effective how long it will take until a new variant appears that is immune to the vaccines? And when that happens it is possible we will have to go back to the lockdowns we suffered for months, and that will happen with a world economy that is many times weaker than when all of this began.