What if Covid 19 broke the 4 year market cycle?

[zaesvlas]

We have already witnessed dramatic changes in the market during the pandemic. As for me, even on a number of these changes, enough conclusions can already be drawn.

[1714873510]

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[michellee]

The presence of Covid at end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 is a step moving from traditional payment into a digital payment which we saw many companies ask their members and customer to use a digital transaction to pay for the services. While people use digital fiat transactions, they also see the crypto movements and attract them to learn more about crypto.

People who work from home because of Covid know about crypto from social media and suddenly, crypto becomes booming because of meme coins. That moment continues with NFT trends and makes many people join the crypto world.

The Covid will end soon but the transaction will change from traditional into digital payments as we can see now. It will change our future in the payment systems because people will think that digital payment systems are the solution in the future.

Indeed, no one will be able to dampen the rapid progress of technology, as well as the presence of digital transactions, which added during the pandemic, everyone wants to be able to avoid using fiat because it is allegedly one of the passive carriers of transmission.

so the momentum of crypto is also a conversation because of the ease that can be done with the use of crypto. It's only natural that at this time everyone is trying to at least get to know what crypto is and will then use crypto services as well.

It's true, this technological advancement will be irreplaceable for some time to come that the use of digital transactions makes it very easy for everyone to do anything only with the latest technology devices that can be carried or anything connected to the internet.

The use of digital currency increased in this pandemic because that can solve the transmitting of the virus from paper money and have less contact between the people. So that is why people prefer to use digital fiat to buy something and while they use digital fiat, they see much advertising about crypto and make them curious.

Yes, crypto gets a good momentum to give people who want to know another payment option. So the presence of crypto is at the right time and makes many people know about crypto. Besides that, the crypto world itself gets booming with the NFT projects and makes many people more curious about the crypto's inside.

The technology will still develop and grow and that is happening with crypto with blockchain, giving more chances for people to join in crypto. People also can make money from crypto by using the technology to have a new investment for the short and long term.

[Baofeng]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Well it could have some effects not just on crypto but the whole financial markets.

And then we also have bitcoin's narrative changes as well, institution money flowing like no other bull run before, there are government like El Salvador investing and then some known and unknown companies investing on bitcoin as well as hedge.

So the whole cycle might change not just due to Covid-19. There are so many for bitcoin in the table right now that this could be the first time that we might break the known 4 year cycle.

[palle11]

I think covid-19 is the revolution that came for cryptocurrency. I still remember the covid-19 protocols and one of them that was very seriously preached was the social distancing and this was particularly about avoiding contacts and which fiat contact too was feared. This started taking financial transactions seriously to online and no better means to do that than to use the means already existing and cryptocurrency was ready to that.
Also apart from jobs going online, people out of fear started investing extra money in bitcoin and cryptocreency, and support from American government to the people during last year, most found there way to cryptocurrency. This was a revolution that met halving.

[Luzin]

Also apart from jobs going online, people out of fear started investing extra money in bitcoin and cryptocreency, and support from American government to the people during last year, most found there way to cryptocurrency. This was a revolution that met halving.

If I understand your sentence, it seems like you don't agree that covid 19 will break the 4-year cycle of BTC. I agree with you, it seems that the effect of Covid-19 on the global economy does not make the BTC market quiet. If you look at the current developments that are the opposite, the crypto market is growing. Some countries are trying to adopt it, just look at El Salvador they believe with BTC they can improve their country's finances. Even the development of crypto is very good, because innovation always arises. Yesterday the defi boom and today there is NFT. The next one will probably be a lot.

[DarkDays]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

I get that this is just an idea, but I'd like to ask you if you saw an effect of the COVID19 on the crypto markets?

From where I stand, unlike financial institutions or businesses that rely on fiat as their economy outside of the crypto space, the cryptocurrency models have not suffered much at the economic crises at the hands of the pandemic. In fact, I saw it getting stronger where investors where pouring in their money into digital assets because the real assets where not as tangible anymore.

Anyway, would love to see other people's thoughts on this.

[jrrsparkles]

I believe covid 19 actually reduced a year in this cycle because at the beginning of 2020 the condition of bitcoin was so pathetic because it went to $3K from $20K so many people tried to supress it with their influence but once again the action speaks better than words which made bitcoin to be on the run for $70K so its actually 25 times higher returns or in percentage it is about 2500%.

With more adoption I expect the cycle to reduce t6hen only it will reach a stable and less volatile state at some point then only those old men will accept bitcoin is actually a currency.

[wxa7115]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Well it could have some effects not just on crypto but the whole financial markets.

And then we also have bitcoin's narrative changes as well, institution money flowing like no other bull run before, there are government like El Salvador investing and then some known and unknown companies investing on bitcoin as well as hedge.

So the whole cycle might change not just due to Covid-19. There are so many for bitcoin in the table right now that this could be the first time that we might break the known 4 year cycle.

We will have to wait and see but I think we are close to be able to break away from the 4 year cycle as all the signs are in favor of bitcoin, bitcoin is a store of value and during times of an economic crisis that is caused by too much fiat being printed the most valuable thing for people is a form of money that does not lose value over time.

Gold has been performing this function but there are signs which are indicating that people are preferring to get bitcoin over gold, and this includes investors, so if bitcoin can take a great deal of the people which are interested in protecting their capital then the growth we have been experimenting will continue for a very long time, as the issues we are facing with the high level of inflation will not go away any time soon.

[crzy]

With more adoption I expect the cycle to reduce t6hen only it will reach a stable and less volatile state at some point then only those old men will accept bitcoin is actually a currency.

This could be more possible as the adoption of many countries started, the cycle might reduce and we might be able to see more cycle in the coming years. Honestly, Covid19 doesn't affect Bticoin that much since there's still a lot of good news are the price still able to make its new ATH so technically, the cycle continues on a better result.

[Johnyz]

With more adoption I expect the cycle to reduce t6hen only it will reach a stable and less volatile state at some point then only those old men will accept bitcoin is actually a currency.

This could be more possible as the adoption of many countries started, the cycle might reduce and we might be able to see more cycle in the coming years. Honestly, Covid19 doesn't affect Bticoin that much since there's still a lot of good news are the price still able to make its new ATH so technically, the cycle continues on a better result.

The cycle keeps on happening, we are playing around that circle and yes I also don’t think Covid19 affects that cycle its more on boosting the market adoption since Covid19 is a wakeup call to everyone that the government can print money as much as they could, and that makes them think to buy more cryptocurrency instead.

[el kaka22]

I hope that it really does, there is a great feeling of this amazing constantly increasing situation we are in, normally recovery from ATH takes years but it didn't happen this time around. Normally we reach to a level where we get to be like in 2014 where it reached 1.4k and then it took us next ath to 2017 December, then it took us 2021 to reach the next ATH again, but now it took us just 4 months or maybe 5 months to reach to a whole new ATH.

This is why I believe that either covid broke it or something else broke it but that 4 year cycle may ended this year and that is a great feeling. All that waiting was way too much, I really didn't want to wait another 4 years to be this high, I am quite happy that we recovered quickly.

[worle1bm]

The pandemic had influenced the crypto market back in March 2020,when everyone on the markets(both stock and crypto) was panicking and the BTC price want down pretty fast,but it recovered fast as well.
There's was other influence of COVID over the Bitcoin price ever since.
Perhaps the 2020 US stimulus checks had some impact over the Bitcoin price,but that impact cannot be measured.
All the lockdowns caused by COVID had zero impact over the Bitcoin price and there will be no more lockdowns,due to the high vaccination levels.
The 4 year Bitcoin market cycle(if such cycle really exists,which is debatable) was definitely NOT broken by the pandemic.

Actually this pandemic has helped crypto market to reach new levels of investment as we have seen coinbase listing and other exchanges also witnessed huge rush in userbase and demand for btc and some other coins whereas people avoid the traditional stock market because the companies were not showing any progress and market was down and only pharmaceutical and vaccine makers share price was surging.So covid definitely hit the market hard globally but now slowly it's recovering and we might see people having more interest in crypto market which could benefit us.

[kapalmabur]

The pandemic had influenced the crypto market back in March 2020,when everyone on the markets(both stock and crypto) was panicking and the BTC price want down pretty fast,but it recovered fast as well.
There's was other influence of COVID over the Bitcoin price ever since.
Perhaps the 2020 US stimulus checks had some impact over the Bitcoin price,but that impact cannot be measured.
All the lockdowns caused by COVID had zero impact over the Bitcoin price and there will be no more lockdowns,due to the high vaccination levels.
The 4 year Bitcoin market cycle(if such cycle really exists,which is debatable) was definitely NOT broken by the pandemic.

Actually this pandemic has helped crypto market to reach new levels of investment as we have seen coinbase listing and other exchanges also witnessed huge rush in userbase and demand for btc and some other coins whereas people avoid the traditional stock market because the companies were not showing any progress and market was down and only pharmaceutical and vaccine makers share price was surging.So covid definitely hit the market hard globally but now slowly it's recovering and we might see people having more interest in crypto market which could benefit us.

Indeed, during the pandemic, many people were interested and turned to cryptocurrencies,
and without realizing it has a positive impact on the crypto market,
In fact, currently stocks are still favored by many people, but when compared to crypto, the spike is really big

[tygeade]

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Basically the bitcoin market's cycle of 4 year long is purely based on the halving event. Only when there is a interference in the internet, we could expect halving to have any disturbance otherwise it will keep on happening and all other things will be running as expected.

I agree that covid and its lockdown situations had heavily hit almost all of our day to day life but bitcoin network is running as per scheduled hence we cannot expect any differences in 4 year market cycle but we could expect any differences in the duration of bullish or bearish trends of bitcoin market within the current market cycle. It means we may have longer bullish or bearish trend than previous 4 year cycles.

[Stedsm]

It seems like it isn't Covid, but a few other things of which traders are in huge fear about.
The day MtGox funds release news broke, was the day I have been carefully watching the markets because I was skeptical about this happening. And then came another news - https://www.pcmag.com/news/us-department-of-justice-is-selling-56m-worth-of-bitcoin

I believe that both these news have played a vital role in BTC price breakdown (again). I don't think BTC will touch its ATH again this year and December may prove to be a stable month rather than bullish.

[Smartvirus]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Apparently, a lot of us think that way  or did thought that way at some point but, in light with the recent development on the market and tweets from idolised persons or  elites when it comes to investments in the society, causing some major moves in the market, one has got to think over notions on the market. You've got to accept that, the market is superior and don't always follow analysis but could move drastically in any direction based on persisting constraints of the moment. Which means, one has got to be flexible enough to accommodate change and adjust on trading strategies.

[Baofeng]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

Well it could have some effects not just on crypto but the whole financial markets.

And then we also have bitcoin's narrative changes as well, institution money flowing like no other bull run before, there are government like El Salvador investing and then some known and unknown companies investing on bitcoin as well as hedge.

So the whole cycle might change not just due to Covid-19. There are so many for bitcoin in the table right now that this could be the first time that we might break the known 4 year cycle.

We will have to wait and see but I think we are close to be able to break away from the 4 year cycle as all the signs are in favor of bitcoin, bitcoin is a store of value and during times of an economic crisis that is caused by too much fiat being printed the most valuable thing for people is a form of money that does not lose value over time.

Gold has been performing this function but there are signs which are indicating that people are preferring to get bitcoin over gold, and this includes investors, so if bitcoin can take a great deal of the people which are interested in protecting their capital then the growth we have been experimenting will continue for a very long time, as the issues we are facing with the high level of inflation will not go away any time soon.

Yeah, that's what I'm trying to say, maybe we break away from the 4 year cycle this year because of the complete U-turn as I have explain earlier. One thing that can still be in our favour is adoption, as we gets closer and more individuals turn to bitcoin instead of gold, we might see a growth that will make the market somewhat 'stable', thus we will have new cycles on the horizon. This might take years though, but at least this cycle could be a good gauge in the coming future.

[sana54210]

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

I agree that there is a bit of a different feeling to crypto nowadays. It doesn't feel like the crypto I known for 8+ years, it feels like a brand new thing. Back in the day it was feeling like something that we did and not even knew if it was legal. I remember my early days and we literally assumed it was "gray area" legally because it didn't had any laws making it illegal but there wasn't anything making it legal neither.

At the end of the day, we reached to a point where Elon sells Tesla cars with doge... well don't know if he does but it is totally possible at this point. Which is why I am feeling a bit weird about these days, but I am super happy about it as well. Don't get me wrong, you need to be insane to be not happy about the current situation, I just feel baffled by how far we have come and that's it, it is definitely something awesome.

[sheenshane]

Well, I don't think there is any chance the market will get broken. I mean, let's be objective since the pandemic started, the crypto market only got more substantial and more popular. I mean, more and more people are interested in crypto, and not only young people but experienced businessmen as well!

Because most of the transactions are getting online now, many started to adopt cryptocurrency and Bitcoin and since during the pandemic we are able to reach the peak I think the cycle continues for good and this pandemic will be remembered as a great start for huge Bitcoin adoption. We’re into correction right now just like a normal cycle but I think after this, we will rise again and since we are still on Pandemic making transactions online are still necessary for a more convenient way.

I tend to agree and not only by that, but we are also in the digital transactions since we don't want a physical contact like using a traditional currency which is fiat.  As I noticed, all digital currencies have been increased usage including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.  The price was increased because it triggered the pandemic covid-19 which is until now we still using it.

There could be a worst but it's not painful like a few years past because as we can see there are too many adoptions in most countries and a lot of good news happening around us.  So I think pandemic was also the reason it has a wide adoption because of this electronic cash and Bitcoin is one of them.

[TelolettOm]

Many countries have recovered from Covid although some are still struggling. There are of course some conditions where there will be another upcoming covid19 waves moreover in the end of the year and also other big holidays.
However so far, Covid19 doesn't really give bad impact to crypto market.
It seems that the price still  keep rising up during covid19, precisely, keeping up again and again.
For, many people prefer to stay working only and turn their investment also on crypto.