BTC $143k USD in DEZ a JAN

[fakerbtc]

Good afternoon, I would like to show some calculations and analyzes based on the active addresses of bitcoin, halving, rewards and price. And from that, design a price for the end of the cycle.

Let's go now for an onchain analysis, analyzing active addresses, Bitcoin prices, halving and my psychedelic thinking.
I will take it easy and I will detail everything so that understanding is easier, because if you get lost on the way, it will be difficult to understand.
First of all, everyone knows that every 4 years BTC halving takes place, which the first was in 2012, then 2016 and 2020, and with each halving the BTC reward decreases by half (2012 -25btc, 2016 -12 , 5btc, 2020 -6.25 bt.

After that introduction, let's go to the calculations, in August 2012 btc was worth 10 dollars and had 221,404 addresses(wallets) active, dividing that number we have a GV( acronym I invented) 221,404 / 10 = 22.1k, at the end of the discharge cycle in 2013, a year after halving, the price was $ 900 and there were 677,484 active addresses, we then have a GV of 677,484 / 900 = 752, dividing the 2012 GV by the 2013 GV we have 29, remembers the reward number ? We then have 29 GV | 25 (2012 reward).

In August 2016 - we have 2,498,538 active addresses and a price of 611 dollars, with a GV: 4089, in December 2017 - 6,279,188 active addresses and a price of 19,179, 6,279,188 / 19,179 = G. Remember the other Bitcoin reward number? 12.5 * - *

In August 2020 — we have 5,092,567 active addresses and a price of $ 11,700, 5,092,567 / 11,700 we have a GV of 435, the number of addresses of the year of halving pro pico da alta is usually double , so we have a total of 10,200,000 addresses on average, remembers the reward numbers, the GV of the peak of the high is usually the GV of the halving divided by the number of the reward, that is , 435 / 6.25 = 69.6.

Finally, we took the number of active addresses of 10,000,000 and divided it by the value 69.6 to deduct a supposed high value between December and January, which would give 143k.
Adjusting some variables, we have an average of 120k to 143k dollars at least for the end of the bitcoin rise in this cycle.

There are many other analyzes, which have different objectives, the main ones are to know even the moment that we are in the btc cycle in order to enhance profitability. Remember, don't try to guess the price of btc, but have a long-term thought, and invest a bigger money just in the pessimistic moments where smart money comes in.
att FakerBTC, soon more psychedelic thoughts for btc.

In the medium are the images proving the price of bitcoin at the time and the active addresses, the website was used https://glassnode.com.
My contact:
https://medium.com/@fakerbtc/btc-fakeradress-ef78e0682236
https://twitter.com/fakerbtc

[Itty Bitty]

I have heard from several publicly available sources that once btc price gets past certain resistance levels that $10k+ daily candles will be a more common occurrence. If true, then yes, petty much any number seems possible. Still, since the only $10k day I can remember was Tesla announcing they bought (actually more like $8500), I guess I have to see these gargantuan candles first to believe it.

[adaseb]

Isn't this just another stock to flow ratio calculation? Been a while since I looked at the formula but its based on number of active addresses. There are many of these types of calculators out there however you need to realise that they won't always work. And from what I read about the S2F, its paramaters are adjusted to make it more accurate.

Currently many people are following the S2F or that guy on Twitter which claims bitcoin will go to $98K before the end of November. So there is about 10 more days left? Do you think its going to happen? Probably not unless we get a few 10% days everyday until the end of the month. Then the December prediction is somewhere way in the 6 figures. I don't think that will happen in this low timeframe.

[Kemarit]

^^ Yeah, I think I've seen this kind of "calculation" before, cant' remember if the formula is included in PlanB's S2F modelling.

However, S2F is predicting $98,000 this month which might be difficult to achieved in 10 days as we are just breaking $60,000. Not unless there is a huge upsurge in the price and investors pouring billions in the market.

In any case, as the OP said, we should look long term and this is probably just another prediction, hit or missed.

[adaseb]

One issue that I am seeing this cycle compared to the previous cycles is that most people who are putting money into crypto aren’t putting it into Bitcoin, they are mostly buying alts. And it’s not good alts like ETH or XRP it’s meme coins like Shiba or Doge.

Almost everyday I run into someone who is talking about crypto or has his phone out with Binance or coinmarketcap and they are always investing in some low cap scam. So the hype is there it’s just not into Bitcoin.

[pooya87]

One issue that I am seeing this cycle compared to the previous cycles is that most people who are putting money into crypto aren’t putting it into Bitcoin, they are mostly buying alts. And it’s not good alts like ETH or XRP it’s meme coins like Shiba or Doge.

Are they really?
Lets take a look at some stats. Right now bitcoin price is 1775% higher than its bottom in this cycle. That means the same time in 2017 when price was around $2800 (1775% higher than the previous cycle's lowest price: $150). This is June 2017.

In the same period (previous cycle) ETH had gone up from about 0.005BTC to 0.15BTC.
In the current period (current cycle) ETH has gone up from 0.03BTC to 0.07BTC.

So you are basically saying despite this time the ETH pump is 133% while previous time it was 2900%  "people are mostly buying shitcoins"?
That makes no sense based on numbers. If they did, the shitcoin prices should have been a lot higher than this.

It is the same with any other shitcoin you look at. They had their golden age in previous bitcoin cycle that ended in 2017. This round they are barely functioning as you can see majority of them haven't even been capable of gaining their previous highs. For example ETH is still missing 53%!

I'm too lazy to download and compute sum of volumes, but shitcoin trading volumes are also pathetically lower compared to previous cycle. Specially for a shitcoin like ETH that doesn't have the ICO hype of 2016-2017 anymore.

[Poker Player]

What I like most about the analysis:

Let's go now for an onchain analysis, analyzing active addresses, Bitcoin prices, halving and my psychedelic thinking.

This does not give much credibility to what you say but your analysis is fine. It is in the along the lines as many others.

Finally, we took the number of active addresses of 10,000,000 and divided it by the value 69.6 to deduct a supposed high value between December and January, which would give 143k.
Adjusting some variables, we have an average of 120k to 143k dollars at least for the end of the bitcoin rise in this cycle.

There is not much left to rule out predictions like this one. If we go into 2022 and the price still doesn't break $70k we will have to rethink our predictions.

[STT]

The most notable thing about stock to flow might be in any fixed target if people take it seriously it starts to effect the result itself.   The expectation and the failure to achieve that will prompt some selling by those who speculate and required the short term payback in that price occurring so fast near term.
   We are really unlikely to get 98k this month, I think most of us know that but Im interested if say a million people believed and bought or held BTC especially for that reason.   Any of these models are estimates, there has be some give and take in there as real life is never a precise set outcome especially in free markets of which BTC is still a small fish in a shark pool.
  If s2f said 98 sometime in the next year is 90% probable then I can believe he has high confidence.  Its not good to say Im certain this happens, stats and lies unfortunately there is a bad reputation somewhat deserved.  I imagine something was lost in translation

If we go into 2022 and the price still doesn't break $70k we will have to rethink our predictions.

To me this is normal and I expect it.   I'm happy to bet we dont do 70k but we dont know for sure, dollar index is surprisingly strong thats a fair better indication which way BTC goes.
   Pullbacks are 100% required, its like girders underneath a bridge we need support below the headline price.  No support, too much speculation and future sellers expect some collapse.

[aoluain]

I have heard from several publicly available sources that once btc price gets past certain resistance levels that $10k+ daily candles will be a more common occurrence. If true, then yes, petty much any number seems possible. Still, since the only $10k day I can remember was Tesla announcing they bought (actually more like $8500), I guess I have to see these gargantuan candles first to believe it.

PlanB tweeted this about 2 weeks ago >

Are you ready for +$10K daily  candles?

https://t.co/SSOCRNalJ5
I believe this is possible because of the low volume of Bitcoin on exchanges it
is easier to move the markets.

The most notable thing about stock to flow might be in any fixed target if people take it seriously it starts to effect the result itself.

...

We are really unlikely to get 98k this month, I think most of us know that but Im interested if say a million people believed and bought or held BTC especially for that reason.

Like a self fulling prophesy.

I agree that $98k is becoming less realistic for November, especially as we are currently
below $60k with 9 days to go, we need a few of those $10k daily candles.

[btc_angela]

^^ I think that because the S2F model is really on the dot I should say in the beginning and even in last month it was very close to predict the highest high we have. That's why people are still expecting a huge 6 digit at the end of the year.

@aoluain - let's see if $10k spike is possible in the last 10 days.

[darkangelosme]

Good afternoon, I would like to show some calculations and analyzes based on the active addresses of bitcoin, halving, rewards and price. And from that, design a price for the end of the cycle.

Let's go now for an onchain analysis, analyzing active addresses, Bitcoin prices, halving and my psychedelic thinking.
I will take it easy and I will detail everything so that understanding is easier, because if you get lost on the way, it will be difficult to understand.
First of all, everyone knows that every 4 years BTC halving takes place, which the first was in 2012, then 2016 and 2020, and with each halving the BTC reward decreases by half (2012 -25btc, 2016 -12 , 5btc, 2020 -6.25 bt.

After that introduction, let's go to the calculations, in August 2012 btc was worth 10 dollars and had 221,404 addresses(wallets) active, dividing that number we have a GV( acronym I invented) 221,404 / 10 = 22.1k, at the end of the discharge cycle in 2013, a year after halving, the price was $ 900 and there were 677,484 active addresses, we then have a GV of 677,484 / 900 = 752, dividing the 2012 GV by the 2013 GV we have 29, remembers the reward number ? We then have 29 GV | 25 (2012 reward).

In August 2016 - we have 2,498,538 active addresses and a price of 611 dollars, with a GV: 4089, in December 2017 - 6,279,188 active addresses and a price of 19,179, 6,279,188 / 19,179 = G. Remember the other Bitcoin reward number? 12.5 * - *

In August 2020 — we have 5,092,567 active addresses and a price of $ 11,700, 5,092,567 / 11,700 we have a GV of 435, the number of addresses of the year of halving pro pico da alta is usually double , so we have a total of 10,200,000 addresses on average, remembers the reward numbers, the GV of the peak of the high is usually the GV of the halving divided by the number of the reward, that is , 435 / 6.25 = 69.6.

Finally, we took the number of active addresses of 10,000,000 and divided it by the value 69.6 to deduct a supposed high value between December and January, which would give 143k.
Adjusting some variables, we have an average of 120k to 143k dollars at least for the end of the bitcoin rise in this cycle.

There are many other analyzes, which have different objectives, the main ones are to know even the moment that we are in the btc cycle in order to enhance profitability. Remember, don't try to guess the price of btc, but have a long-term thought, and invest a bigger money just in the pessimistic moments where smart money comes in.
att FakerBTC, soon more psychedelic thoughts for btc.

In the medium are the images proving the price of bitcoin at the time and the active addresses, the website was used https://glassnode.com.
My contact:
https://medium.com/@fakerbtc/btc-fakeradress-ef78e0682236
https://twitter.com/fakerbtc

For me i do not rely much on analysis cause i don't want to blame someone for burning my small funds that's why i do my own analysis before i will going to invest in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies and yet as now all my trades are giving me a small profit.

[elisabetheva]

-snip-

For me i do not rely much on analysis cause i don't want to blame someone for burning my small funds that's why i do my own analysis before i will going to invest in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies and yet as now all my trades are giving me a small profit.

what you do is the best step that can be done, because all analysis is only as a comparison whether we want to use or not. because we have the funds, what we will do with the funds is an inviolable right.

Getting used to your own analysis is very good, because we will be able to make improvements later because what we have done is for future learning how best to do it.

bitcoin is very high and need a large amount of funds it is better to invest in a potential altcoin and there can be several alternatives that will be done so there will be more.

[michellee]

Let say, bitcoin price hit $143k in December or January or the next months the next year, I wonder how much the deepest price bitcoin will go down because that can be the very lowest price that makes people panic selling.

But no matter how high the bitcoin price is, we should use the moment when the bitcoin price can hit the next highest price to make the biggest profit this year or next year. I guess people are curious about when bitcoin will hit the new ATH.

[JaanusRaim]

Good afternoon, I would like to show some calculations and analyzes based on the active addresses of bitcoin, halving, rewards and price. And from that, design a price for the end of the cycle.

Let's go now for an onchain analysis, analyzing active addresses, Bitcoin prices, halving and my psychedelic thinking.
I will take it easy and I will detail everything so that understanding is easier, because if you get lost on the way, it will be difficult to understand.
First of all, everyone knows that every 4 years BTC halving takes place, which the first was in 2012, then 2016 and 2020, and with each halving the BTC reward decreases by half (2012 -25btc, 2016 -12 , 5btc, 2020 -6.25 bt.

After that introduction, let's go to the calculations, in August 2012 btc was worth 10 dollars and had 221,404 addresses(wallets) active, dividing that number we have a GV( acronym I invented) 221,404 / 10 = 22.1k, at the end of the discharge cycle in 2013, a year after halving, the price was $ 900 and there were 677,484 active addresses, we then have a GV of 677,484 / 900 = 752, dividing the 2012 GV by the 2013 GV we have 29, remembers the reward number ? We then have 29 GV | 25 (2012 reward).

In August 2016 - we have 2,498,538 active addresses and a price of 611 dollars, with a GV: 4089, in December 2017 - 6,279,188 active addresses and a price of 19,179, 6,279,188 / 19,179 = G. Remember the other Bitcoin reward number? 12.5 * - *

In August 2020 — we have 5,092,567 active addresses and a price of $ 11,700, 5,092,567 / 11,700 we have a GV of 435, the number of addresses of the year of halving pro pico da alta is usually double , so we have a total of 10,200,000 addresses on average, remembers the reward numbers, the GV of the peak of the high is usually the GV of the halving divided by the number of the reward, that is , 435 / 6.25 = 69.6.

Finally, we took the number of active addresses of 10,000,000 and divided it by the value 69.6 to deduct a supposed high value between December and January, which would give 143k.
Adjusting some variables, we have an average of 120k to 143k dollars at least for the end of the bitcoin rise in this cycle.

There are many other analyzes, which have different objectives, the main ones are to know even the moment that we are in the btc cycle in order to enhance profitability. Remember, don't try to guess the price of btc, but have a long-term thought, and invest a bigger money just in the pessimistic moments where smart money comes in.
att FakerBTC, soon more psychedelic thoughts for btc.

In the medium are the images proving the price of bitcoin at the time and the active addresses, the website was used https://glassnode.com.
My contact:
https://medium.com/@fakerbtc/btc-fakeradress-ef78e0682236
https://twitter.com/fakerbtc

Hi soulmate! It is indeed useful to imagine that Bitcoin can go to 100k or even 150k usd before falling nearer to its fundamental value that is determined by its quality (adoption rate).