Good afternoon, I would like to show some calculations and analyzes based on the active addresses of bitcoin, halving, rewards and price. And from that, design a price for the end of the cycle.
Let's go now for an onchain analysis, analyzing active addresses, Bitcoin prices, halving and my psychedelic thinking.
I will take it easy and I will detail everything so that understanding is easier, because if you get lost on the way, it will be difficult to understand.
First of all, everyone knows that every 4 years BTC halving takes place, which the first was in 2012, then 2016 and 2020, and with each halving the BTC reward decreases by half (2012 -25btc, 2016 -12 , 5btc, 2020 -6.25 bt.
After that introduction, let's go to the calculations, in August 2012 btc was worth 10 dollars and had 221,404 addresses(wallets) active, dividing that number we have a GV( acronym I invented) 221,404 / 10 = 22.1k, at the end of the discharge cycle in 2013, a year after halving, the price was $ 900 and there were 677,484 active addresses, we then have a GV of 677,484 / 900 = 752, dividing the 2012 GV by the 2013 GV we have 29, remembers the reward number ? We then have 29 GV | 25 (2012 reward).
In August 2016 - we have 2,498,538 active addresses and a price of 611 dollars, with a GV: 4089, in December 2017 - 6,279,188 active addresses and a price of 19,179, 6,279,188 / 19,179 = G. Remember the other Bitcoin reward number? 12.5 * - *
In August 2020 — we have 5,092,567 active addresses and a price of $ 11,700, 5,092,567 / 11,700 we have a GV of 435, the number of addresses of the year of halving pro pico da alta is usually double , so we have a total of 10,200,000 addresses on average, remembers the reward numbers, the GV of the peak of the high is usually the GV of the halving divided by the number of the reward, that is , 435 / 6.25 = 69.6.
Finally, we took the number of active addresses of 10,000,000 and divided it by the value 69.6 to deduct a supposed high value between December and January, which would give 143k.
Adjusting some variables, we have an average of 120k to 143k dollars at least for the end of the bitcoin rise in this cycle.
There are many other analyzes, which have different objectives, the main ones are to know even the moment that we are in the btc cycle in order to enhance profitability. Remember, don't try to guess the price of btc, but have a long-term thought, and invest a bigger money just in the pessimistic moments where smart money comes in.
att FakerBTC, soon more psychedelic thoughts for btc.
In the medium are the images proving the price of bitcoin at the time and the active addresses, the website was used
https://glassnode.com.
My contact:
https://medium.com/@fakerbtc/btc-fakeradress-ef78e0682236https://twitter.com/fakerbtc