Are we in a bear trap?

[Leviathan.007]

If you ask me I would say whenever the price drop for a few hours or days it's a bear trap and there will be a great chance for the people who can use this chance and buy some more bitcoins, during all these years we saw many situations like one where the price only falls for a few and saves the potential to reach new and higher targets, actually, not just talking about bitcoin but if you ask me about anything I would say it's necessary to have a price correction and then sideways market movements for a few days, all these reactions are normal in the market.

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[fiulpro]

An asset like bitcoins is already super famous. At the end of the day the people would be super careful about what they do with those funds.

Undoubtedly there will be one's who would wanna sell, but as we all know bitcoins can climb much higher therefore I do think of the time being they might wanna hold onto their funds till they are mature enough.

For people who are concerned about the price I do think that they have to generally get the idea that :
"Bitcoins is already surrounded by potential long term investors, they are not going to miss any buying opportunity"

If the price goes down it would recover as well. Therefore calm down and do not sell your coins so soon. It might be more profitable to wait for everything to settle down. Q

[Fortify]

Seeing the funding rates above, it seems clarified that btc had a 'fakedown' and was a bear trap, but how low do you think will it go? Is the trap game over and we lost the 55k buying opportunity? Or should I wait for much lower value of btc to get an entry? I am still confused about that MtGox releasing their customers' btc tomorrow, which is making my nerves go wild when I think of what may happen.

Source

It seems like we're still within 15% of the recent high and Bitcoin has been volatile for a long time, so it seems more like a natural fluctuation to me. You're probably right that it will be related to the Mt Gox distribution, because anyone who has been reading the news and picked up on that will probably be concerned that a flood in the market will cause a slight price drop. Whenever the price starts to drop you will always have a certain group of people who were just waiting for any excuse to leave the market and not very committed to their holding, so that group is always ready to sell up at the first sign of trouble. Combine those two elements are it was ripe for a pullback.

[so98nn]

It seems MtGox release was good opportunity for everyone? Or atleast the news of it made the market go down the sink. However a real trader and investor would see it as an opportunity because market going down at this level is amazing thing to bag more coins. I mean this was dream of many peeps on the forum itself who wanted the market crash and earn more bitcoin along the way.

So called missing the train guys should be buying it at this point. Many exchangers also started giving “free-trade” for the BTC-FIAT pair to attract more and more clients. Definitely they know it very well that peeps will start buying more and more today.

[hyudien]

Don't be afraid, the market will recover and you just need to make sure that every long position taken is at least not 100%. Divide into several parts, is the most effective way. As for seeing the price movement which has decreased quite a few days ago, it is an action that can be called a trap, it can also be called a bonus for us to take. Regarding MtGox, you don't need to take it seriously, because it could be that he has already made a lot of entries at various points. Always think positively that the market is not yet time to fall too deep.

[Mauser]

What exactly do you mean by Bear market trap, that investors sold a few of their bitcoins in an effort to get prices lower and then heavily rebuy coins at 55,000 USD. To be honest, I think any price below 60,000 USD is a good price to get more bitcoins. We have traded quite a while above the 60,000 threshold, it's just a matter of time for prices to bounce back. Also we shouldn't forget that holiday season is coming up, I would expect another price increase before Christmas.

[Dewi Aries]

I think still too early to say if it is bear trap. Because usually price moving very fast that made a lot of people panic then bounced. For now a lot of people look still calm and see first where bitcoin price will go. Maybe only need a time like end of year for market to get better price and people really shouldn't panic about it.

[paxmao]

The problem in general is that we are 18th century soldiers launching cavalry attacks and cannon fire in a market that is supposed to be working to match offer and demand, but in the current context there are three guys out there that have aircraft carriers, cruise missiles and armed spaceships. These actors are the Federal reserve, the European Central bank and, to a point, the central bank of China.

What I mean by this is that prices as of now, since they are measured in fiat, are basically following the monetary policy.

[terrorJR]

things like this will not be seen if we only look at it at a glance, regardless of the trap or not it seems that a sense of vigilance must have been there and should have been able to make plans when things went wrong.
apart from that, we are now entering the month of December, which is a very vulnerable month if we look at history because this month is identical with a pretty good increase.

[Silberman]

Well the sooner this event happens the better, let the sellers sell and if its
a mass sell off the effects will only be temporary  and they will realise their
mistake soon after.

I really cannot see a mass sell off, the community has matured and have a
long term outlook.

$55k was the bottom IMO, we are already back up to $58k+

This, if a sell-off is about to happen the threat of it is many times worst than the effects of the sell-off itself, this may seem odd but with the threat of many people willing to sell then the market slows down as everyone is trying to figure out what is going to happen and the market does not move up and begins to go down before anything at all has happened, it is better to be done with this quickly so the recovery can begin and the unstoppable march of bitcoin towards 6 figures can continue.

[2double0]

There was a misunderstanding here by me.
It wasn't 35k BTC but they will be giving back around 142k btc + cash + bitcoin cash worth 150k btc in total which is much more shocking because it takes the number to a mindblowing $9 billion at present and they have not yet planned to distribute it till over a month (which is good news actually), but it will be a watchable thing when it happens because if those investors do not want to remain as long term holders and liquidate their btc, then market will not be able to absorb the huge selloff (even if 50% of those btc will be sold).

You can watch full news here.

[TheGreatPython]

If you ask me I would say whenever the price drop for a few hours or days it's a bear trap and there will be a great chance for the people who can use this chance and buy some more bitcoins, during all these years we saw many situations like one where the price only falls for a few and saves the potential to reach new and higher targets, actually, not just talking about bitcoin but if you ask me about anything I would say it's necessary to have a price correction and then sideways market movements for a few days, all these reactions are normal in the market.

When there are people who are always looking for making use of all the dips then definitely we will have bears to be trapped. Because whenever market is recovering after a correction, traders who are all preparing to go shorting rather than making use of dips will face losses for sure. Such people my realize their misunderstand about bitcoin market only later on.

Here we must make use of fundamental analysis of bitcoin. Bitcoin's overall trend is always positive hence happening of bear-trap might be a common one.

[Oceat]

things like this will not be seen if we only look at it at a glance, regardless of the trap or not it seems that a sense of vigilance must have been there and should have been able to make plans when things went wrong.
apart from that, we are now entering the month of December, which is a very vulnerable month if we look at history because this month is identical with a pretty good increase.

Yeah, pretty increase with a quick dump to most since it's also the year of taking profit by any means necessary because it's for the upcoming holiday. So, I think making a quick decision here is also important if we see a quick dump that means this market is totally faking it to look like a bearish market but it's just trying to shake off the weak-hands who can't hodl for a long time and doesn't deserve to take a profit from new ATH if ever Bitcoin break a new ATH within this year if not, then at least next year or so.

[usekevin]

Seeing the funding rates above, it seems clarified that btc had a 'fakedown' and was a bear trap, but how low do you think will it go? Is the trap game over and we lost the 55k buying opportunity? Or should I wait for much lower value of btc to get an entry? I am still confused about that MtGox releasing their customers' btc tomorrow, which is making my nerves go wild when I think of what may happen.

Source

It's seems like bear trap.But actually it's not a bear trap. It's near trap with us.Bitcoin gonna a change price of many altcoin. When the dump occur, it should considered to be a good opportunity to gain huge profit from it. Some will keep think and don't buy till the next pump. Once pump was come again, they may think of late investments.If you just hold means, you may get good in profit,.

[terrorJR]

things like this will not be seen if we only look at it at a glance, regardless of the trap or not it seems that a sense of vigilance must have been there and should have been able to make plans when things went wrong.
apart from that, we are now entering the month of December, which is a very vulnerable month if we look at history because this month is identical with a pretty good increase.

Yeah, pretty increase with a quick dump to most since it's also the year of taking profit by any means necessary because it's for the upcoming holiday. So, I think making a quick decision here is also important if we see a quick dump that means this market is totally faking it to look like a bearish market but it's just trying to shake off the weak-hands who can't hodl for a long time and doesn't deserve to take a profit from new ATH if ever Bitcoin break a new ATH within this year if not, then at least next year or so.

We must be able to take advantage of things like this if we do not want to be trapped in the market and can be profitable for ourselves.
So, if you look at it now, it's true, as you said, this could be a tactic which at first glance will make it appear as if it is moving to bearish, but it could be that there will be a significant pump after which there will be a dump that is quite draining.
this is how we determine the momentum whether we are going to just relax by keeping the asset silent for the long term or indeed make something profitable action by smartly reading the situation.

[Anonylz]

I think by now the Mt gox funds have been released according to the @op or they are still in the process, whatever the case may be I don't think it will really have much impact on price than what we have already seen, if you have bought from that dip, you will be in profit already, between you can always split the buy position, 40%, 30%, 30% depending on the market condition, if you don't want to buy all at once.

[RealMalatesta]

Is the trap game over and we lost the 55k buying opportunity? Or should I wait for much lower value of btc to get an entry? I am still confused about that MtGox releasing their customers' btc tomorrow, which is making my nerves go wild when I think of what may happen.

Yeah, it seemed like mt.gox did not release lots of BTCs or traders who got refund probably did not opt for dumping right away; they might have decided to hold after seeing bitcoin prices roaring compared what they have seen in 2013/2014. Usually in trading terminology, I have seen bull-trap more frequently but I could not recall that I have ever come across the term "bear trap". This is may be due to "recovery" is only frequently happening in BTC market and not common on most other markets.

By considering the way how bitcoin market have recovered from the recent correction, I am also feeling like we may not get back to $55k levels any more. As of now bitcoin market is struggling to break the the resistance around $60k levels which might happen this weekend's last session.

[GeorgeJohn]

You should've bought when it's down on $55k. But we don't know if by this weekend it's about to recover and we're seeing it moving up again to $60k.
As your thinking about the release of mt.gox funds, people who are eligible to receive it might dump it as soon as possible, is that what you're thinking about them?

You made nice point because the price of bitcoin has started accelerating, buy all these coins when the price increases will be at disadvantage of the buyer, actual good time to purchase bitcoin or any other coin is when the values decreases, like right now the price is at fifty nine thousand (59k) clamping back to sixty thousand (60k) which is the point it has been fluctuating since two months interval, but it's acknowledgeable to purchase now because definitely it will get to sixty five thousand before December runs out.

[Falconer]

You made nice point because the price of bitcoin has started accelerating, buy all these coins when the price increases will be at disadvantage of the buyer, actual good time to purchase bitcoin or any other coin is when the values decreases, like right now the price is at fifty nine thousand (59k) clamping back to sixty thousand (60k) which is the point it has been fluctuating since two months interval, but it's acknowledgeable to purchase now because definitely it will get to sixty five thousand before December runs out.

One strategy to profit from trading bitcoin is to buy every dip and this has been discussed hundreds of time in many other thread in my opinion. We know that correction is normal for bitcoin so far, but we can maximize the opportunity to buy this only because the price recovery will occur immediately after the correction even if it reaches -20% in 1-2 days.

For now the price recovery after the recent correction has taken place and bitcoin is back to $59K today, and this is the reason why long-term holders never feel scared or panic during a correction. Market behavior teaches us to be able to maximize opportunities, but it is only realized by those who have the courage and capital. It's still very possible to see the price increase reach over $70K by the end of December, this is the last segment that will determine whether $100K become a reality or not.

[The Cryptovator]

Really it's time to call bear trap? Bitcoin hasn't dumped suddenly although it was hit $10K below from ATH. Since Bitcoin is much volatile it's a normal behavior in my opinion. If dump something like $10K within a night then we may call it a bear trap. I don't know the exact reason for the current dump but it's an opportunity to accumulate for us who we are risk takers. If it was a bear trap then the price should pump immediately after the dump. But it doesn't happen and BTC seems to be more correction IMO. I might be wrong but I am assuming to accumulate a small around $50K. But I don't agree to call it bear trap anyway. We shouldn't expect to bump the price constantly. Then there would be a fear enter in Bitcoin for beginners.