Are we in a bear trap?

[2double0]

Seeing the funding rates above, it seems clarified that btc had a 'fakedown' and was a bear trap, but how low do you think will it go? Is the trap game over and we lost the 55k buying opportunity? Or should I wait for much lower value of btc to get an entry? I am still confused about that MtGox releasing their customers' btc tomorrow, which is making my nerves go wild when I think of what may happen.

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[batang_bitcoin]

You should've bought when it's down on $55k. But we don't know if by this weekend it's about to recover and we're seeing it moving up again to $60k.
As your thinking about the release of mt.gox funds, people who are eligible to receive it might dump it as soon as possible, is that what you're thinking about them?

[Sterbens]

Seeing the funding rates above, it seems clarified that btc had a 'fakedown' and was a bear trap, but how low do you think will it go? Is the trap game over and we lost the 55k buying opportunity? Or should I wait for much lower value of btc to get an entry? I am still confused about that MtGox releasing their customers' btc tomorrow, which is making my nerves go wild when I think of what may happen.

Source

If we pay attention at a glance maybe we will not be too aware of the details they hide. But whether this is a trap or not, caution must be the main focus. It could be that behind this MtGox has a big trap plan. Long-term investors should be aware but this is still a matter of speculation to watch out for in the future. What is and changes after this time we see it.

[2double0]

<<>>
As your thinking about the release of mt.gox funds, people who are eligible to receive it might dump it as soon as possible, is that what you're thinking about them?

I have a thread already to discuss the MtGox matter - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5370600.msg58417739#msg58417739

However, I do fear that they can dump the market to those points we have no idea about. Because if $57 million worth of seized cryptocurrencies are being liquidated by US Department of Justice and this is what we are seeing, then what will happen when we will see $3 billion (almost 53.6 times bigger) worth btc coming to exchanges?

[dothebeats]

If the MtGox funds are really bound to be released tomorrow, there is a huge percentage that people who receive the funds will dump hard on the whole market and just be done with everything related to bitcoin. From the looks of it, it seems that the market is legitimately trying to avoid the potential crash that is abound tomorrow. If the rumors are not true, price may climb back up and those who sold would probably kick themselves for believing the rumors.

[batang_bitcoin]

<<>>
As your thinking about the release of mt.gox funds, people who are eligible to receive it might dump it as soon as possible, is that what you're thinking about them?

I have a thread already to discuss the MtGox matter - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5370600.msg58417739#msg58417739

However, I do fear that they can dump the market to those points we have no idea about. Because if $57 million worth of seized cryptocurrencies are being liquidated by US Department of Justice and this is what we are seeing, then what will happen when we will see $3 billion (almost 53.6 times bigger) worth btc coming to exchanges?

I guess that's what we should really anticipate as these btc's have been there for so long and the owners of it are longing to get what they deserve and sell it as soon as they receive it. That's going to be a big market mover however, I think that the move of dump will be temporary as there are a lot of whales that are also waiting for the dip ready to fill their bags with those cheap bitcoins. In return, the market will recovery slowly just as what's happening lately.

[24Kt]

If the MtGox funds are really bound to be released tomorrow, there is a huge percentage that people who receive the funds will dump hard on the whole market and just be done with everything related to bitcoin. From the looks of it, it seems that the market is legitimately trying to avoid the potential crash that is abound tomorrow. If the rumors are not true, price may climb back up and those who sold would probably kick themselves for believing the rumors.

This is interesting to watch. We don't know the veracity of this rumor. But it seems it influences the market. No one can tell what's next for bitcoin so what you can do is just keep your eyes wide open and act according to your instincts. Hard to follow the fud or the market's sentiment. You should also have your own plans for yourself to prevent huge losses in case.

[Hydrogen]

Platforms like celsius network are known for offering near to 20% interest rates on their crypto based accounts. 20% being a great interest rate has often made people wonder what the catch was. Later it was revealed that platforms like celsius network can be associated with (and share liquidity with?) short sellers and speculators who might profit from the price of bitcoin and crypto declining. Apparently, that is the trade off associated with high interest rate earning accounts there.

I think there recently have been many short positions associated with bitcoin, which may have played a role in its recent decline.

Within the last few weeks the united states has passed another stimulus bill. Markets and investors are becoming worried about inflation, the US debt ceiling, job markets and the overall strength of the US economy. Fear in markets usually translates to a decline. In theory, it should also translate to greater profiteering opportunities, which can be found in a crisis.

[aoluain]

Well the sooner this event happens the better, let the sellers sell and if its
a mass sell off the effects will only be temporary  and they will realise their
mistake soon after.

I really cannot see a mass sell off, the community has matured and have a
long term outlook.

$55k was the bottom IMO, we are already back up to $58k+

[Kemarit]

It's too early to say if this is a bear trap or not, the price went from $55,000 to $58,000 in just 24-48 hours and one thing to take note is that it happens on a weekend. So I'm not that confident of a the reversal as it may attract inexperience traders.

So let's see how it goes next week, if the price continue to an uptrend then this could be a reversal and we might see $60,000 again and the market getting on the bullish phase again.

[Poker Player]

Is the trap game over and we lost the 55k buying opportunity? Or should I wait for much lower value of btc to get an entry?

As I invest for the very long term, I do not find myself in the dilemmas you are asking yourself. I don't care what Bitcoin does in the next few months, what matters to me is what it does in the next 10 years. I buy regularly and that's it.

If you look at the past, the most profitable thing has been that: those who bought and forgot, or those who bought regularly have come out much better off than those who gambled on guessing what the market would do in the short term. And this is a rule that applies to other types of investments, not just Bitcoin.

Regarding what is going to happen soon, I still believe that we will beat the previous ATH before the end of the year.

[TheUltraElite]

Seeing the funding rates above, it seems clarified that btc had a 'fakedown' and was a bear trap, but how low do you think will it go?

It can go down but it can also go up. Funding rates and all make predicting more difficult and biased, but keeping myself aside from futures and margin, I see the opportunity to buy at the low I take it. Yesterday price was 55k and today it is 58k - profit in the air if you seized the chance.

Is the trap game over and we lost the 55k buying opportunity? Or should I wait for much lower value of btc to get an entry?

Possible that lower than 55k might happen. I dont think below 50k will sustain for long, surely there will be buy orders at a round figure like that. So a correction will be seen there. That might be a good place to buy again.

I am still confused about that MtGox releasing their customers' btc tomorrow, which is making my nerves go wild when I think of what may happen.

The point is not take in that much anxiety, it will ruin your trading experience. You could also decide not to trade during this period. After all we cannot pin a specific reason to a specific movement or look for correlation-causation every time.

Make a point to buy at the next dips and then see what happens.

[Charles-Tim]

but how low do you think will it go? Is the trap game over and we lost the 55k buying opportunity? Or should I wait for much lower value of btc to get an entry? I am still confused about that MtGox releasing their customers' btc tomorrow, which is making my nerves go wild when I think of what may happen.

Predicting bitcoin price in short term can be very difficult, even analysts always have conditions for bull or bear market, while what they predict many times can also be wrong. Bitcoin price might retrace or not but people are expecting the price not to increase above $70000 this year, but also I do not expect bitcoin to retrace below $50000. Next year will be another prediction of what could possibly happen, but I am not that bullish in opinion about bitcoin price.

But, how about some investors like microstrategy that do not sell and not selling their bitcoin holding, it is just because they know that no matter the retracement, bitcoin price will increase and reach all-time-high. That is just what is going to happen. That is why many investors are not bothered about the falling price but have more long term foresight which is all-time-high.

[Gozie51]

But, how about some investors like microstrategy that do not sell and not selling their bitcoin holding, it is just because they know that no matter the retracement, bitcoin price will increase and reach all-time-high. That is just what is going to happen. That is why many investors are not bothered about the falling price but have more long term foresight which is all-time-high.

These are categories of investors and whales who have seen the long term future of bitcoin that the price will eventually increase greater than present price. The institutional hodlers keep their money in bitcoin believing on it volatility. Halving is coming again and we know it has a strong bull history with bitcoin and the effect on price is felt and changes starts to come after few months. The level of digital growth and platforms including bitcoin to payment structure, there is no way the population of bitcoin user will not keep increasing and demand jumping from what it is and the price growing too.

[Japinat]

I think we will see a lower value, and we just need to be patient if we want to get the best entry to generate a better profit. Bitcoin dump as low as $55k in this huge down, but it is slowly recovering now, however, I'm still not convinced that it will fully recover so I will wait until it will dip further to a price of below $50K.

[joniboini]

I'd just keep on buying (DCA) to be honest, since it's difficult to know exactly when the market will move. It doesn't really matter since I do believe in the future of BTC, so losing some dollars because a rather poor entry is acceptable if 5 years later I get more than that. I think you should be concerned with bull or bear trap if you're a swing-trader. You can use the rainbow chart if you want to time when to buy perfectly (as long as you can wait and be patient). But keep in mind in the end it's just a theory.

[kryptqnick]

The price recovered a bit already, and the only thing I saw about MtGox is that no timeline of releasing funds was set yet, so while perhaps this last correction can somewhat be attributed to worries over this event, I don't think it's happening today. Moreover, I don't understand why people are worried since from what I read the money will be returned to victims, so it's not like there will be a single point of entry onto the market. Also, there's no reason to believe all these victims will immediately sell their BTC for fiat. So there's nothing to worry about, but 10% price fluctuations are very common for Bitcoin under any circumstances.

[goldkingcoiner]

I would not call it a bear trap just yet. Its a normal correction. Completely within expected parameters. If we were to experience a sharp, sudden drop then I might start thinking of whether or not to call the situation a bear trap, but then again I would be spending hours with technical chart analysis and combing through news articles about the current macro of the market.

But I still firmly believe that we will reach 100k sometime soon (going by the bitcoin logarithmic chart). If you decide to sell now you might be avoiding a short term drop but you might also miss out on an amazing pump. I would rather hodl.

Long story short: No need to panic.

[michellee]

We have two options at the moment: the price can start going up or the price can still go down without any notice. We can hope that we are ready for anything that can happen to the market. Still, this current situation is a good time to accumulate more bitcoin, especially if we have already prepared more money to buy at any lower price. There is no sign of where bitcoin will move in the next hours or tomorrow, but it seems the price is waiting for something before it breaks out. But hopefully, it can bring a good movement for bitcoin to go up again.

[chaser15]

Not a bear trap but the usual bear movement we have always seen since the beginning.

Take it or leave it. If we are talking about BTC better disregard any confusion and have the guts to place a bid on the current price. It happened many times already at least we should know what are the things we need to deploy on the situation.

Good luck to anyone's strategy.