Target Price Methodology

[Etranger]

Many forum participants, giving advice to beginners about trading, talk about the need to set orders for one`s own target price and wait until the asset reaches it. Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy. But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on? Of course, I know about fundamental and technical analysis, about the need to read the chart before opening or closing positions. But I'm rather interested in whether it is possible to deduce certain patterns, by what percentage the asset will grow over a certain time, e.g. 3 month, a year etc.? How can I be sure that my price can be set at 20% of the current price, and not at 10% or 35%? Now for me it looks more like guessing, and I often exit the position earlier, since I do not suppose that after 20% there may be another 15% growth, for example. I really would like to improve my target pricing skills.

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[hyudien]

That's because of you, we have determined price movements based on the method of how to read movements that we believe in and learn. Broadly speaking, it does not mean that we will touch the price, but as an alternative when we are not in the market and the price has touched the point we have placed. Then you must also be able to divide the balance into several parts and not go all-in in one queue point. If you just save, of course until whenever you just wait. Therefore there is a strategy to apply it to the price movement of a crypto with the time range that we have determined.

Because of the nature of price movements, I think everyone and myself fall into the category of guessing, but rather than guessing without reason, it's much better to guess with our own reasons. Especially based on the knowledge we have. In the end, we cannot blame certain strategies, because all technical analysis is based on certain moments and accuracy in implementing them.

If, you know about it all, you should have realized from the start that the hypothesis you made and made had two consequences, namely that our method was used correctly or vice versa that the method applied was not correct. IMO there is no right method, it all depends on the level of mastery each has. It could be that what you are good at, has not been fully studied to its roots. As we often hear: The more we know a trading method, the more we feel that what we understand is still lacking".

[Ararbermas]

Many forum participants, giving advice to beginners about trading, talk about the need to set orders for one`s own target price and wait until the asset reaches it. Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy. But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on? Of course, I know about fundamental and technical analysis, about the need to read the chart before opening or closing positions. But I'm rather interested in whether it is possible to deduce certain patterns, by what percentage the asset will grow over a certain time, e.g. 3 month, a year etc.? How can I be sure that my price can be set at 20% of the current price, and not at 10% or 35%? Now for me it looks more like guessing, and I often exit the position earlier, since I do not suppose that after 20% there may be another 15% growth, for example. I really would like to improve my target pricing skills.

by doing TA you can actually get some information how the coins will perform especially through fundamental analysis, and fyi not all the time you can achieve what exact percentage you want in just one trade. because you know market is so volatile and of course if you're doing intraday you need to set atleast 1/2 ratio to assure you can get profits before it makes correction..
For me perhaps 20 percent is possible unless if you see a break out pattern or a strong bullish momentum because usually the growth rate of the coin is really jumping high.. If not or just a normal trend i think it's impossible in just one trade.. Actually based on my experience on day trading it took me 4-5 trade in order to reach that average but still worth it. Lol

[hugeblack]

They are often identified at points of support and resistance, meaning that you place the price at a specific support resistance point and buy at it and then sell at the following resistance points:

Example of nearby support and resistance points

53,000 | 56,000 | 58,000 | 63,000 | 67,000

Therefore, you can buy when the price falls to one of those levels and sell at half the value when it reaches close to the resistance point.
If the price increases, you will make profits, and if it decreases, you will have sold at a higher level.

Also, many people only sell the value they bought and invest in the profit.

[South Park]

Many forum participants, giving advice to beginners about trading, talk about the need to set orders for one`s own target price and wait until the asset reaches it. Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy. But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on? Of course, I know about fundamental and technical analysis, about the need to read the chart before opening or closing positions. But I'm rather interested in whether it is possible to deduce certain patterns, by what percentage the asset will grow over a certain time, e.g. 3 month, a year etc.? How can I be sure that my price can be set at 20% of the current price, and not at 10% or 35%? Now for me it looks more like guessing, and I often exit the position earlier, since I do not suppose that after 20% there may be another 15% growth, for example. I really would like to improve my target pricing skills.

You did not realize it but you answered your own question, there is not an exact science about this as it is impossible to predict with absolute certainty what it is going to happen in the market, at some point we need to make assumptions based on our experience and the past data of the market in order to more accurately predict what the market is going to do next and how big will that movement be, it is probably not the answer you are looking for but that is precisely why trading is not an exact science and a lot of the time it depends on making the right assumptions about what is happening in the market when we look at the charts.

[palle11]

You have raised some questions that probably other participants are likely to ask too. At some point I asked something like that and wanted to follow it up but I tell you it is possible to do or see in apps or something, it only base on your own determination to know the percentages you want to enter or you want to exit. This is good though, it will work like stop loss and in fact it will be a stop loss and profit gauge for you.

Mostly this can be very practicable when you are in a staking platform, you can monitor your profit easily because it is not volatile like trading coins. For trading you have to be fast in your calculations for some high volatile coins like bitcoin. However for your enquiry, it will have to depend on you to run out your percentage in calculating your entry and exit point.

[el kaka22]

Use trailing stop when you are not sure about when you should be going out. This means when it is going up, set the stop loss higher and higher, which means the moment it starts to go down, you will be automatically selling but still making a profit.

So, let's assume you bought at 50, you set a stop loss at 45, then it becomes 55, you change your stop loss to 50, it becomes 60 then you change yours to 55, it is 90, you change yours to 85 and keep doing that as long as it goes up. This is only applicable if you do not have a set target price. This way if it crashes suddenly, you still get out and still making a profit at the same time and benefits you greatly. However if you really want to decide on target price, then you should learn more about technical analysis. In TA you have a lot of indicators and people make their strategy based on that indicator.

[TheUltraElite]

Many forum participants, giving advice to beginners about trading, talk about the need to set orders for one`s own target price and wait until the asset reaches it. Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy. But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on?

What @hugeblack said about support levels is worth noting. Support levels are point were you can assume that a break towards lower price is a low probability, or price sees a high buying chance at that. Similarly Resistance levels where the selling pressure is high, it becomes a difficult point to cross coming from a support level below that.

Prices usually from a support towards resistance when bullish and opposite in bearish. But for how many levels this might go depends on the volume of change and how deep the support level is. As you lower, the stronger the support level, usually. You can link this with the fact that people will buy bitcoin if its price is low and therefore support it more when it goes down. Same thing happens in the stock market too.

Of course, I know about fundamental and technical analysis, about the need to read the chart before opening or closing positions. But I'm rather interested in whether it is possible to deduce certain patterns, by what percentage the asset will grow over a certain time, e.g. 3 month, a year etc.?

Dont try to depend on patterns, this is my experience. These patterns are all man-made, no market tells you that "I am following this pattern" - usually these patterns are terms used to describe movements by news media and analysts. What you need to keep in mind is S/R levels like I said above and also the fact that bitcoin is a deflationary currency meaning that the longer you hold the more valuable in fiat it becomes.

How can I be sure that my price can be set at 20% of the current price, and not at 10% or 35%? Now for me it looks more like guessing, and I often exit the position earlier, since I do not suppose that after 20% there may be another 15% growth, for example. I really would like to improve my target pricing skills.

Even if you exit the position early, it will not matter in the long run. The peak prices are often short lived, better than missing out on the sell order at that point, dont you think it is better if you sell fractions at every near-peak price? You dont need to touch the tip, but you can skim the sides of the peak and still get a lot.

[so98nn]

Honestly I have seen different story on the forum. Peeps here actually never tell to set the target price and dont advice them to hodl until they reach that particular prices. I think it's dangerous to do that because one can get stuck forever in the bear and bull loop if the price was too high at which they bought and if the coins are not doing pretty good in the bullish trend.

Most often users are seen giving advice to do the technical and fundamental analysis and based on that enter the market and make the exit strategy. Setting target prices is good thing as we know when to stop, but there should be a limit at which we set it. Investors has seen going crazy about the profit booking and instead they have ended up with loses than profits because they were too greedy.

Just enter the market at bear, make your mind clear that you have to reach your BEP, get few % in profits and exit it before your mind gets corrupted with greediness. Thats all mate.

[Zilon]

Many forum participants, giving advice to beginners about trading, talk about the need to set orders for one`s own target price and wait until the asset reaches it. Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy. But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on? Of course, I know about fundamental and technical analysis, about the need to read the chart before opening or closing positions. But I'm rather interested in whether it is possible to deduce certain patterns, by what percentage the asset will grow over a certain time, e.g. 3 month, a year etc.? How can I be sure that my price can be set at 20% of the current price, and not at 10% or 35%? Now for me it looks more like guessing, and I often exit the position earlier, since I do not suppose that after 20% there may be another 15% growth, for example. I really would like to improve my target pricing skills.

Buying at support in an uptrend or a range market and selling at resistance in a declining trend or range market. But this isn't still a sure investment plan and so stop loss should be considered when making your entry because market can trigger support and resistance and even go beyond the support or resistance zone.

[Etranger]

In order to place an order in the zone where the price is more likely to come, you need metrics. For example, levels on a chart. Only the timeframe of this chart should be at least 4H, although I would recommend using a 1D chart for such a prediction.

The price always moves from level to level, bouncing from one level and breaking through another, if it is some kind of trend, or simply, like a ping pong ball, bouncing off the levels of a narrow price corridor. Therefore, I would recommend that you look for points of strong support and resistance, and when the price rebounds from this level, look for the next similar level and place orders in that zone.

Could you please tell more about this levels and how can I trace them. I already know about Fib.retracement, RSI, Momentum, Money Flow and Bollinger Bands, but I know about each of them separately, although I don’t know which indicators should be used with each other and how to superimpose one on top of the other.

Use trailing stop when you are not sure about when you should be going out. This means when it is going up, set the stop loss higher and higher, which means the moment it starts to go down, you will be automatically selling but still making a profit.

So, let's assume you bought at 50, you set a stop loss at 45, then it becomes 55, you change your stop loss to 50, it becomes 60 then you change yours to 55, it is 90, you change yours to 85 and keep doing that as long as it goes up. This is only applicable if you do not have a set target price. This way if it crashes suddenly, you still get out and still making a profit at the same time and benefits you greatly. However if you really want to decide on target price, then you should learn more about technical analysis. In TA you have a lot of indicators and people make their strategy based on that indicator.

Yeah, I also tried to do that, and at first I thought it was a good strategy. But I faced a problem with guessing the percentage by which to tighten the stop loss. For example, I bought at 50, set stop loss at 45, then it bacame 55, I changed stopp loss to 50 and began to wait for 60, but it hit 50 again after my stop loss was set, the order worked, I sold, however it became to rise again and reached 60, but without me this time.

Dont try to depend on patterns, this is my experience. These patterns are all man-made, no market tells you that "I am following this pattern" - usually these patterns are terms used to describe movements by news media and analysts. What you need to keep in mind is S/R levels like I said above and also the fact that bitcoin is a deflationary currency meaning that the longer you hold the more valuable in fiat it becomes.

How can I define S/R levels without using patterns?

[Etranger]

Could you please tell more about this levels and how can I trace them. I already know about Fib.retracement, RSI, Momentum, Money Flow and Bollinger Bands, but I know about each of them separately, although I don’t know which indicators should be used with each other and how to superimpose one on top of the other.

The levels on the charts refer to graphical analysis and do not require the connection of any technical analysis indicators. For example, from those that you have listed. To be precise, they are not needed at all. Recently there was a vivid example of what I said here earlier.

We look at the 1D chart and see clearly formed support levels. We saw that the price bounced off the 60300 level for a long time, which means it was a very powerful support level. Also, if you pay attention to the previous support level, where there was a consolidation, then it is at around $53 700:



That is, if we receive a signal that the level of $60 300 is breaking through, then we can safely assume that the price will go down to the next support level, where it consolidated last time. So, the level at 60300 breaks through and what we see:



The price ideally falls to this level of $ 53 700 and then the buyback takes place. This means that this level is still relevant. Levels are a very powerful signal for determining further price movement.

It is just important to be able to correctly identify them, to be able to correctly identify real breakouts of the level, or a price rebound from the level followed by a reversal. But all this cannot be explained within the framework of one post, this is a very voluminous knowledge.

Thank you for your explanation! I was looking through many charts the last previous days and I wonder, what to do, when we don`t have yet the next resistance line. If we look at your images we can see that the price was bouncing between two lines: 67507.79 and 60326.90 (the first picture). Those are support and resistance levels (for that time). Lately the price went down, to the next support level 53784.98. But what if the price would have broken through the first resistance level at 67507.79 and would have gone up? How in this case should I place my orders, if I don`t know where the next resistance would be? Is there any calculations for it?

[South Park]

Use trailing stop when you are not sure about when you should be going out. This means when it is going up, set the stop loss higher and higher, which means the moment it starts to go down, you will be automatically selling but still making a profit.

So, let's assume you bought at 50, you set a stop loss at 45, then it becomes 55, you change your stop loss to 50, it becomes 60 then you change yours to 55, it is 90, you change yours to 85 and keep doing that as long as it goes up. This is only applicable if you do not have a set target price. This way if it crashes suddenly, you still get out and still making a profit at the same time and benefits you greatly. However if you really want to decide on target price, then you should learn more about technical analysis. In TA you have a lot of indicators and people make their strategy based on that indicator.

A trailing stop seems to me as a useful tool that can be used even if you have a target price, after all even if you have a target price you want to reach before you sell it is not rare for the market to move in ways we cannot predict and the price could go down before it reaches our target, but if we use a trailing stop then even in that scenario you will obtain profits as it will exit your position at an earlier point than if you were using a traditional stop loss.

[jaberwock]

can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on? Of course, I know about fundamental and technical analysis, about the need to read the chart before opening or closing positions.

There are multiple methodologies are available to set your target price levels.

1. Fixed targets. This can be 5% to 50% profits from your entry level and based on time frame of your strategy.

2. Technical driven. Candle sticks and support/resistance kind of strategies will notify about the change of trend to book profits.

In simple way, how you set your stop-loss levels? Stop-loss is a target to exit in negative direction and same applies to positive direction as well. Hence, you do not need a new mechanism for profit booking just go by your usual technical analysis way.

[OcTradism]

You must think of cut loss price and target price.

From your entry price, target price / cut loss price should be 3x. It means you see bigger profit than loss if you take profit or cut loss from your entry price. If you see it is 1 or less, it is bad because you are gambling with difference of price to get loss is bigger than price difference to take profit.

[Hobo66]

These are all speculations and one thing that is to keep in mind is that one who are interested in trading then he should have to think about the value that if this coin reach to certain value then i will sell it just because it will give you benefit. It is really hard to predict the exact price but some people can make speculation and that works well.

[tygeade]

one thing that is to keep in mind is that one who are interested in trading then he should have to think about the value that if this coin reach to certain value then i will sell it just because it will give you benefit.

You mean we should have imaginary target and when price reaches that target then we should book profits? But, I feel like if you follow this method then you will regret when market keep rising after you exit. I am just talking about bitcoin trading and you cannot predict the ATH level without the help of any technical analysis hence if you go with your imaginary target then definitely you will regret after some time.

Instead of going for imaginary target levels by your assumption, you should go for technical analysis to find out the probable peak price level and around that you should book profits then you may buy back with the help of same technical analysis.

[palle11]

These are all speculations and one thing that is to keep in mind is that one who are interested in trading then he should have to think about the value that if this coin reach to certain value then i will sell it just because it will give you benefit. It is really hard to predict the exact price but some people can make speculation and that works well.

You never considered emotions too lol Many times traders have a particular spot to want to exit but because of emotions they adjust and keep adjusting to an extent that greed sets in and at the end it comes into losses. Trading isn't easy and most times it is speculated upon but if we work over our emotions, we can always succeed.

[justdimin]

Fixed targets. This can be 5% to 50% profits from your entry level and based on time frame of your strategy.

I usually go with fixed or get because when we are not greedy then we can easily book profit at what we need for that particular day. I am not actively trading these days still whenever I go for day-trading then I prefer to book profits at some 10% from my entry before the trend of market is changing. I am always afraid of market fluctuations from what we could predict; which is the reason I am satisfying myself with some profit rather than facing losses.

If you go waiting to gain up to 50% profit for your every trade then you might need to be patience for weeks to months because for that much big target levels you should have strong technical analysis and then you should have proper stop loss level; this way until your stop loss levels are not triggering then you can keep waiting to gain up to 50% profits.

[Zilon]

Target price isn't static as different factors affect target price. Capital is one of the key factors that decides how much profit target to set. But it's best to keep your profits realistic and achievable and it should be able to cover for losses when the occur. Having a fixed profit margin can be deceptive as trend changes and market volatility alternates