TA shows potential bullish breakout - if history repeats

[$crypto$]

Just like what we've seen since the Omicron variant was divulge to the public. The price really goes down from the last all time high we got. But hopefully next year will be different and that the covid-19 will be over so that we can see the market rally again without this news around.

Hopefully this doesn't become an extension of their panic because I'm sure they will panic and save fiat for all their needs if this Omicron variant is widespread so I think at least it must have an influence on the bitcoin price.
But whatever happens we have to stay calm seeing this situation and never get carried away because with this new variant it disturbs their current investment, so we all have to be able to survive with the current bitcoin price and believe that next year we will see a new atmosphere.

[fullhdpixel]

The price really goes down from the last all time high we got. But hopefully next year will be different and that the covid-19 will be over so that we can see the market rally again without this news around.

Yeah I remember that by the times of this Omicron variant was identified, bitcoin was trading around $58k levels but market reacted to that and then bitcoin slide down to below $50k levels within a week time of span. I guess only retail investors might have pulled down their investments but long term holders might have continued which is the reason we managed to stay above $45k levels; otherwise we might have experienced fall-down up to $30k levels.

Now, it seems the time for recovery and then new ATH. I just do not want another ATH within $70k levels. I just dream about a big leap toward $90k to $100k. If history repeats then it should be a copy of what we had in 2017 and not just what we had some weeks back.

[cafucafucafu]

Any part of history can repeat - but it's what part of history repeats that matters.

I personally think that a breakout is going to be almost impossible given the current circumstances.

The halving cycle is coming to an end as of currently while the Christmas rally has shown that $50k resistance is still quite strong. It'll take a lot to reverse this bearishness.

[bitgolden]

From the time of you posted this, bitcoin market started to behave like repeating the history and it is into sideways movement around $51k levels which again may launch the prices into next resistance region which may happen around $58k levels and after having some more sideways between $56k to $58k levels, it may start the rally toward new ATH which might be above $70k levels.

As of now, I as well started to believe into the concept of repeating of history even in short time frame. It would be too good if you keep on posting similar speculations to help this community to understand where the bitcoin market is heading.

I am not expecting the rally towards 70k to happen anytime soon, but I agree that the rally towards 58k seems like the possible next move. Obviously I have to state that this is just my prediction and it is not a guaranteed thing, I am not a wizard that can see the future, I just feel like that's the "possible" next move. By the looks of it the 58k mark will be hard to crack, I mean we could have a huge bull run like we had many times and break through it, but unless that happens the next target 58k could be hit and stay there.

For a while we will move between 55k to 58k and go up and down around those prices. Only after that we will move to above 60k once again. Seeing how it took us a while to go beyond 50k again, and how we dropped few times and went above again, I have to say the 70k goal could take a month or two after we reach the 58k levels.

[Kemarit]

Any part of history can repeat - but it's what part of history repeats that matters.

I personally think that a breakout is going to be almost impossible given the current circumstances.

The halving cycle is coming to an end as of currently while the Christmas rally has shown that $50k resistance is still quite strong. It'll take a lot to reverse this bearishness.

I'm not seeing any bullish break out, maybe few occasions this holiday but that's it for 2021. We should all look forward next year and see how it goes.

The thing is that if we look at the pattern, in 2017 we have a massive bullrun reaching new all time high. And the same happens this year, actually 2x we have a new all time high. And in 2018, it went downward spiral for us and it was the start of a bear run. So not saying that it could repeat in 2022, but if we are going to look at past history and says "history repeats" itself, then just be prepared for the worst.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

The price really goes down from the last all time high we got. But hopefully next year will be different and that the covid-19 will be over so that we can see the market rally again without this news around.

Yeah I remember that by the times of this Omicron variant was identified, bitcoin was trading around $58k levels but market reacted to that and then bitcoin slide down to below $50k levels within a week time of span. I guess only retail investors might have pulled down their investments but long term holders might have continued which is the reason we managed to stay above $45k levels; otherwise we might have experienced fall-down up to $30k levels.

Now, it seems the time for recovery and then new ATH. I just do not want another ATH within $70k levels. I just dream about a big leap toward $90k to $100k. If history repeats then it should be a copy of what we had in 2017 and not just what we had some weeks back.

Who wouldn't want a huge uptick on price to 6 digits? And that's what we are expecting for this year because many speculators have pointed out that it can be done this year. Unfortunately, we are blinded by this Omicron variant that put a lot of selling pressures in the market as you have pointed out, from $58k to $43k, that's a huge lost for us. Nevertheless, who knows, maybe a conservative $70k can still be hit next year or even higher.

[Baofeng]

The price really goes down from the last all time high we got. But hopefully next year will be different and that the covid-19 will be over so that we can see the market rally again without this news around.

Yeah I remember that by the times of this Omicron variant was identified, bitcoin was trading around $58k levels but market reacted to that and then bitcoin slide down to below $50k levels within a week time of span. I guess only retail investors might have pulled down their investments but long term holders might have continued which is the reason we managed to stay above $45k levels; otherwise we might have experienced fall-down up to $30k levels.

Now, it seems the time for recovery and then new ATH. I just do not want another ATH within $70k levels. I just dream about a big leap toward $90k to $100k. If history repeats then it should be a copy of what we had in 2017 and not just what we had some weeks back.

Who wouldn't want a huge uptick on price to 6 digits? And that's what we are expecting for this year because many speculators have pointed out that it can be done this year. Unfortunately, we are blinded by this Omicron variant that put a lot of selling pressures in the market as you have pointed out, from $58k to $43k, that's a huge lost for us. Nevertheless, who knows, maybe a conservative $70k can still be hit next year or even higher.

And it wouldn't be healthy though in the long run if we see a massive run to $100k.

I'm not against it though, but for me, we might get to it maybe in the next 2-4 months and that will be the safest increase to 6 digits. Unlike the prediction for this year, they are saying that 6 digits can be reached, however, if we look at the price in October we are like in the $60k'ish and they said that $90kish in November and then more than $100k in December (which didn't happen). But in any case we hit that price in December, we might see a massive downward spiral next.

[STT]

There was no bullish breakout in this scenario but we may have beaten a negative trend by maintaining current lows above that trend.  It could prove positive if now established above that declining pattern from the highs of 2021.
  I'd speculate if we dont hold this recent low perhaps for volume reasons, we do require to go back to September lows as a more reliable area of volume to establish a low.

[jostorres]

Following the ups and downs from before shows a similar pattern where the next stage is a nice pump and a huge green candle.

If it does indeed repeat then buying now would be a rather profitable move

Have ever noticed such repeating of history in short duration? Moreover, the time gap between rise and fall along with sideways scenarios is too small right now; will not that not impact your speculation in any means? I am just seeing your analysis just like a random call as it is not backed by any of technical approach. Still, it would be good if you back your speculation with similar kind of market patterns which were repeating. I mean just showing only one chart may not be enough for convincing about your speculation. If time permits and if you had spotted similar repeating patterns in the past, please share them as well.

[Falconer]

I am not expecting the rally towards 70k to happen anytime soon, but I agree that the rally towards 58k seems like the possible next move. Obviously I have to state that this is just my prediction and it is not a guaranteed thing, I am not a wizard that can see the future, I just feel like that's the "possible" next move. By the looks of it the 58k mark will be hard to crack, I mean we could have a huge bull run like we had many times and break through it, but unless that happens the next target 58k could be hit and stay there.

Mate, I firmly believe that no matter how good the analysis, neither the TA nor the FA are ever truly guaranteed to be correct. Everyone needs to consider the possible risks because these are just predictions that are never guaranteed by anyone. That is, when someone believes in the predictions or analysis of others, they must know how to minimize the risk because we really don't have a crystal ball in hand.

For a while we will move between 55k to 58k and go up and down around those prices. Only after that we will move to above 60k once again. Seeing how it took us a while to go beyond 50k again, and how we dropped few times and went above again, I have to say the 70k goal could take a month or two after we reach the 58k levels.

$55K to $58K is still possible during the end of the year, but back to square one that we need to weigh the risks. But what is certain is that when we have a goal for long-term investment, buying is better than waiting for bullish confirmation.

[tokeweed]

Here’s something that could repeat.  If price history could be used as an indicator...



Both initial resitances happened after around a 30% sell down.  First bounce usually is just that, a dead cat bounce before going back down to accumulation mode.  So yeah..  It could be another couple of weeks before we see BTC starts trending up agai.  But that’s if we don’t see it break down below 40k.

And there it is.  I was kinda hoping I was wrong tho.  Lol.  But there’s nothing we can do.  The volume just wasn’t there and it could be a couple more weeks before the big boys decide to come back in and play.  And if they’re going to play, I think they’d want to get in lower than where BTC is right now.

I’m thinking around the bottom of the most recent huge sell down...  42k.  But they’d prolly settle for 45k.  Dunno.  

In hindsight the market could’ve been played by scalpers looking to make a quick buck for the holidays. 

[tertius993]

I'm sorry but this thread really encapsulates why TA is more or less pointless.

If it does indeed repeat then buying now would be a rather profitable move

Currently down $10k from when that was posted ...

As I said in this very thread:

The problem with most TA and in fact most predictions is that they are made up of a cocktail of confirmation bias and wishful thinking.

People need to stop dreaming about where they would like the market to go.

[tokeweed]

^  That’s cos most folks want to make the perfect buy because they think they could time the market consistently.  It’s like they’re gambling in roulette without an exit strategy if things start going south.  And one thing I’ve noticed in these parts is a lot of people and I mean a looot likes to buy on weakness and buy the dip.  But what about the dip to the dip to the dippity dip? 

Buy on strength and always know when to get out even before you enter the trade so you won’t feel lost.  Yeah...  I’m writing it for my own benefit cos I haven’t been following it.  Lololol.

[STT]

TA is only probable scenarios and you have the ability to realize a rise is part of a larger movement and buy into a 24hr gain to be part of the larger movement with less fear then others perhaps.   That would also mean you sell again if the pattern should reverse and invalidate your scenario.  It can easily be a waste of time of course.     I think alot of studies have concluded people should just choose an asset well and regular buy, if you are correct you will purchase into long term gains

[tokeweed]

^  Yup it’s not like a holy grail.  But it does give you an idea if it’s a good time to buy or sell and helps you make better decisions by giving you different views on what’s going on with the price.

Anyway some wise guy a few hours ago thought he should sell and push the price down for the lulz.    45k seems to holding strong tho.  It was prolly an attmept to shake everybody off before another break out.  But we’ll see...  What do you guys think?  Will 45k hold or break down?



Edit:  Still holding after a couple of hours.  Looks good.  I think I can stop looking now...  Lol.

[tokeweed]

After 45k broke down, it’s like we’re having the BTC June - July at 30k feelz at play again.  Lol.

So yeah, it could pretty much happen just like June - July at this range and bounce to around 48k then another sell down back again to 42k lows.  Some sideways action could come into play after exhausted longs and shorts and eventually...  errr hopefully, BTC goes back trending up again for a couple months to get some losses back.  

Then again if 42k breaks down, we better pray 30k holds or we are ckufed.