Supercycle or Halving cycle still?

[Wind_FURY]

People know the effect of the halving long before the halving actually occurs. If that is the cause then you would see the effect before the halving.

I debated about that during 2020, whether the halving was priced in, or not. I said the same thing as you, but I was proven wrong  by the market. It’s the same as years 2012, and 2016. The price surged after the halving, showing everyone that it was not truly priced in.

As I have already documented, the price surged after a halving only in 2012 (and then again a year later). Other surges were not until at least a year after a halving. Also, people ignore that the 2011 price surge was before the 2012 halving. Furthermore, the price had risen significantly before each halving. How is that not evidence that the halving was "priced in"? The surges later do not disprove it.

Interestingly, Litecoin does show this effect. In both Litecoin halvings, the price rose sharply until just prior to the halving. Then, the bubble popped and the price fell sharply, and it continued to fall after the halving.

It’s probably no one really values Litecoin?

That is not true of course, but it shouldn't matter either way. I think that it shows that speculation is much more of a factor in Litecoin because the effect was so strong.

I believe that the actual causes of the Bitcoin bubbles are similar, but more general. News about the halvings or other events generates interest and promotes speculation, which which feeds on itself and slowly evolves into a bubble.
Finally, if we attribute the bubbles to what people believe about the supply and not the supply itself, then the bubbles have little to do with money supply and everything to do with demand.

But the supply itself does reduce after a halving.

Not true. The supply is always increasing toward 21 million before, during, and after a halving. Inflows to exchanges increased after the last two halvings. Supply is not reduced by a halving no matter how you measure it.

I meant issuance is reduced by half after every halving, and therefore also reducing selling-pressure.

Plus if we check the chart in weekly, actually buyers were starting to buy again during January of 2015 for the 2016 halving and January of 2019 for the 2020 halving. It’s probably in anticipation of everyone’s expectation of the halving, therefore increasing demand. Miners are also speculators, they probably loaned fiat to have the cashflow to pay for their bills now, and sell their coins later.

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[odolvlobo]

I meant issuance is reduced by half after every halving, and therefore also reducing selling-pressure.

I included the exchange inflows chart above to dispel that belief.

You belief that the halving reduces the number of bitcoins sent to exchanges and thereby reduces "selling-pressure". However, the chart shows exactly the opposite -- the number of bitcoins sent to exchanges increases after a halving (in two instances).

[Wind_FURY]

I meant issuance is reduced by half after every halving, and therefore also reducing selling-pressure.

I included the exchange inflows chart above to dispel that belief.

You belief that the halving reduces the number of bitcoins sent to exchanges and thereby reduces "selling-pressure". However, the chart shows exactly the opposite -- the number of bitcoins sent to exchanges increases after a halving (in two instances).

OK, then there’s greater demand, which makes the price surge, in spite of the increased selling-pressure after a halving. My next question is, then what’s your opinion on Plan B’s Stock To Flow Model? Is it then naive to assume that Bitcoin will simply increase in price because of the halvings?

[tertius993]

I meant issuance is reduced by half after every halving, and therefore also reducing selling-pressure.

I included the exchange inflows chart above to dispel that belief.

You belief that the halving reduces the number of bitcoins sent to exchanges and thereby reduces "selling-pressure". However, the chart shows exactly the opposite -- the number of bitcoins sent to exchanges increases after a halving (in two instances).

OK, then there’s greater demand, which makes the price surge, in spite of the increased selling-pressure after a halving. My next question is, then what’s your opinion on Plan B’s Stock To Flow Model? Is it then naive to assume that Bitcoin will simply increase in price because of the halvings?

That is certainly my opinion - it is much too simplistic an argument.

[Tmdz]

We are still in the halving cycle but so far each cycle has lengthened with diminishing returns, so according to this theory is would be possible to see a new high perhaps by the end of the year.  I think no one would expect it since everyone just assumes now the cycle is over and we will have 3 years of a brutal bear market with no happiness.

[odolvlobo]

OK, then there’s greater demand, which makes the price surge, in spite of the increased selling-pressure after a halving. My next question is, then what’s your opinion on Plan B’s Stock To Flow Model? Is it then naive to assume that Bitcoin will simply increase in price because of the halvings?

First, two exponential functions can be graphed to look as if they are correlated simply by adjusting the scales.

Second, price is determined by supply and demand, but Plan B's stock-to-flow model completely ignores demand. Without demand, you cannot predict prices.

The model cannot be accurate, except by luck or after-the-fact adjustments.

Finally, it looks like the predictions made by his S2F model are wrong. According to the model, the price should be exceeding $100k, but it is falling below $40k instead.

I get stock-to-flow. It is basically a way of characterizing changes in supply. It is not sufficient for predicting prices.

[buwaytress]

Plus if we check the chart in weekly, actually buyers were starting to buy again during January of 2015 for the 2016 halving and January of 2019 for the 2020 halving. It’s probably in anticipation of everyone’s expectation of the halving, therefore increasing demand. Miners are also speculators, they probably loaned fiat to have the cashflow to pay for their bills now, and sell their coins later.

And there will be plenty like me (I think/hope) who will already now be switching down gears and trying to buy more than sell. I earn rather than buy but I always try to touch less and less BTC and just invoice more in stablecoin during bearish periods --  in effect adding to my BTC and liquidating stablecoins.

Because you're right. People won't forget the next halving's coming, regardless of how the market turns out next few months.