If we think that investment-related knowledge means observing our charts, observing candles, then we need to get out of this idea because knowledge means understanding your income, understanding your expenses, and finding the amount of money left, making decisions accordingly, building an emergency fund, being patient, having faith, etc. If you want to invest in a long-term plan but you have no control over your expenses based on your income, then how is it possible that you will continue to invest continuously for a long time.
Another important thing here is whether the amount of money you have decided to invest continuously will be a pressure for you in the future because when it will be a pressure for you in the future and when you have no alternative thoughts, then it will be difficult to hold your investment. I think it is more important to hold Bitcoin for a long time than to buy Bitcoin with a relatively large amount of money continuously, so use a small amount of money continuously and still make your investment long-term and protect your investment from sudden sales.
Emergency funds are important in investing and there is no way to skip them, why is an emergency fund necessary? Because people's dangers or financial needs come suddenly, so if this preparation is not taken in advance, then it can affect the investment, so you should be careful in advance and decide to form an emergency fund.
Bitcoin knowledge means you need to know everything related to Bitcoin. For example, what is Bitcoin, why is the price of Bitcoin increasing or decreasing, what kind of network is Bitcoin related to and how Bitcoin works, etc. But an investor does not need to know so much in the first place. If a person is aware of the basic knowledge related to Bitcoin, if he is able to find a reasonable income in a month or week and if he is able to build trust in Bitcoin, then he can invest. He can gain knowledge about everything by keeping the investment going. Delaying investment for the sake of gaining knowledge will never be the right decision.
Even though you have the right ideas, Loyang, your ways of expressing your ideas are confusing.
If we are new to bitcoin, we might hardly know anything about bitcoin, and sure it may well be a good idea to learn more about bitcoin, yet you do not need to know a lot about bitcoin in order to get started investing.
The main thing that you need to know to get started is whether you have discretionary funds, and if you have discretionary funds, then you can get started investing into bitcoin.
So whether you start out into bitcoin with $100 or $10 or some other amount, you can adjust your amount based on your knowledge and your comfort, and so I would imagine that if you are investing $100 per week, after several months and/or even after a year or two, you would be inspired to learn more about bitcoin based on the size of your investment getting larger and larger and larger.
Sure, your opinions and knowledge about investing into bitcoin as compared with investing somewhere else is one of the
9 individual factors that you should be considering, yet it seems the more important things relate to determining if you have discretionary funds and then learning various other parts of your 9 factors as you go, and your views on bitcoin is one of the things that could take years and years and years to really become more and more comfortable with what it is and its investment thesis...
The better you feel about the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis, then the more you might be justified to invest at higher levels into bitcoin, and so sure maybe you would not want to put 10% of your annual income into it or even 100% or more of your annual income into it for people who have lump sum amounts available to them) without greater levels of due diligence and investigations.
Yet to get started, you don't have to do extensive studies, and most likely common sense would help to inform you that starting out conservatively would make sense until your comfort level became stronger.
We need to take both aspects very seriously. Just as it is necessary to continue buying continuously, it is also necessary to hold it in the long term. If your portfolio target is $50,000, if you buy $1,000 worth of Bitcoin and then don't buy any more, it won't be the right decision for you. Who invests how much depends entirely on their financial situation. Many have very good financial situations and many have very bad financial situations, so a person needs to buy based on their financial situation.
Do you believe that a guys aim is to get their bitcoin investment portfolio up to a certain dollar value number, so then once you get it up to that certain value number, the what do you plan to do at that time? Sell it or something else?
You are correct that putting in $1k and then expecting the $1k to turn into $50k, that does seem to be a bit unrealistic as a short term plan, yet I suppose a person who figures out that he can invest $1k every 10 weeks ($100 per week) or even $1k every year ($20 per week), then he would have a longer period of building up his BTC holdings.
So a guy can consider his bitcoin holdings in terms of both how much value he had put into it over time, and also how much the bitcoin is worth in terms of spot price or in terms of its 200-WMA valuation.
I become a bit skeptical of guys who are just proclaiming some dollar value that they are wanting their bitcoin to get to, since that sound more like a trader mentality rather than an investor mentality, and I am wanting to focus more on investing in this thread rather than trading, even though some of my own portfolio management practices that involve price based sustainable withdrawal do have some seemingly trading feelings to them, even though I like to consider them as downside insurance rather than attempts to make profits, since I am thinking of maintaining bitcoin quantity and even dollar value - at least until entering into time based sustainable withdrawal.
I am not opposed to having various targets that might relate to dollar value, bitcoin quantity, 200-WMA valuation or some other ways of figuring out value and perhaps helping to provide tools that would allow figuring out various points in which transition in the investment strategy and/or management of the bitcoin holdings might take place based on reaching certain milestones that likely would even change over time, too.. since they might need to be adjusted based on changes in income or changes in cost of living or even perceived changes in the strength (or weakness) of bitcoin's investment thesis.
I cannot recall whether in this cycle if we had some temporary times in the 200% to 400% higher than the 200-WMA which would have had allowed withdrawing 11 months in advance, even though we did have a lot of times that the BTC price was in the 100% to 200% above the 200-WMA, which would have had allowed withdrawing 5 months in advance.
It is easy to check in our tool, just haver the chart over the last cycle
Using my phone:
This was the peak of price and the higher than 200-WMA
Yep. You are correct, frequently various price versus 200-WMA answers can be found for any date or even sometimes when we are trying to figure out what was going on within a past time period, then we can zoom in on the price on certain dates, and so you have made several of the features to be very helpful to make current analysis and to compare to historical periods.. at least with questions related to how the BTC price related to the 200-WMA and even how a sustainable withdrawal might have worked out if we had reached a certain quantity of BTC on a certain date... so a lot of that can be quite helpful in trying to determine how we might want to try to make our BTC last - but we still are likely advantaged by spending some time playing with the tool to hopefully put ourselves into a better position to figure out how much we can get out of our holdings and even if we might want to apply more conservative withdrawal rates or perhaps more aggressive withdrawal rates. .which can be done through the withdrawal rate percentage.
Bitcoin investment is open to both the rich and the poor likewise, the DCA accumulation strategy too. Every investor needs to accumulate bitcoin based on the size of his discretionary income. If you have a small discretionary income, DCA within your discretionary income and if a rich guy has a large discretionary income, he should also DCA with large amount from his discretionary income because the main goal is to accumulate as many bitcoin as possible overtime.
Someone with a large discretionary income has the advantage to accumulate more bitcoin and reach his accumulation target faster by buying aggressively and front loading his bitcoin portfolio because he has the flexibility to mix all three strategies during his accumulation journey compared to an investor with small discretionary income. It's when you buy bitcoin from money that's not your discretionary income is when you will not be able to hodli for long term because you will sell when your needs arises.
Investing isn't just for individuals (certain individuals) but for everyone who has the intention and financial means whether small or large. Investing isn't about the amount invested but rather about confidence and intention in accumulating Bitcoin through DCA. This also depends on the amount of income based on a person's discretionary funds. This allows them to invest by accumulating Bitcoin through discretionary income.
This certainly makes it easier for someone with sufficient discretionary income as the advantage of accumulating Bitcoin will quickly reach their investment goals. This makes it easier for someone to do anything whether it's buying aggressively or prioritizing their portfolio during their accumulation journey. This is certainly not possible for someone with limited funds or income meaning income that only covers daily needs for living with their family. Therefore this is only possible for those with strong capital.
You are kind of contradicting yourself alankasman since you said that investing is for anyone with discretionary funds, but then in the end you say that it is only possible with strong capital.
Yes, we can agree that anyone can invest as long as they have discretionary funds, yet if they are going to sustain their investment over 4-10 years or longer, they have to continue to have discretionary funds that are sufficient to pay for their expenses so that they don't have to tap into their investment, and even better if they can continue to add to their investment.
So there are levels, and surely a person's discretionary funds situation can be improved by increasing income, cutting expenses and perhaps even managing funds well so that he might not need to (or be tempted to) tap into his bitcoin at a time that is not of his choosing or due to poor cash flow managing systems/practices.
