[2021-12-15] Analysts expect Bitcoin trend change after Fed lays out its roadmap

[CryptoWebDirectory]

The markets were up today after the Fed confirmed at least three rate hikes and a wind-down of its bond purchasing policy in 2022. Several pseudonymous Twitter users shared some interesting graphs and opinions...

Original article on CoinTelegraph

Some points from the article...

There is a solid base of support near $46,500

A more detailed analysis of the recent price action was offered by options trader and pseudonymous Twitter user John Wick, who posted the following chart highlighting the bullish and bearish reversals that have occurred over the past two weeks.


BTC/USD 4-hour. Source: Twitter

According to Wick, the recent price action from BTC has established “a solid base support,” which is represented by the yellow horizontal line at $46,588, which is structurally “called a stage 1 base.”

Trader and pseudonymous Twitter user Crypto Ed_NL likewise sees a bounce coming in the future and he posted the following chart outlining how the price action could play out in the next few weeks.


BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Twitter

Crypto Ed_NL said,
“Expectations for the coming hours: 1 more leg down pre FOMC into the green boxes, a bounce after FOMC, continuation of the bull run.”

Echoes of September’s BTC price action

A final bit of perspective was offered by crypto investor and pseudonymous Twitter user Crypto Bull God, who posted the following chart comparing the current price action for BTC with how it performed in September before going on a bullish breakout.


BTC/USD 12-hour chart. Source: Twitter

The analyst said,
“Been staring at this the past few days. Not saying this will happen, but I certainly see a similarity now as compared to back in Sept. of this year."

[bbc.reporter]

I speculate if the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes causes the American economy to begin going into a depression similar to 2008, I reckon we might witness bitcoin dump below the previous all time high for the first time. I am not certain of this, however, bitcoin has never pumped as strongly as the bull markets of 2013 and 2017.

It also appears that it is not only America is planning rate hikes. The United Kingdom were the first to hike their rates from 0.1% to 0.25%.

[buwaytress]

I speculate if the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes causes the American economy to begin going into a depression similar to 2008, I reckon we might witness bitcoin dump below the previous all time high for the first time.
It also appears that it is not only America is planning rate hikes. The United Kingdom were the first to hike their rates from 0.1% to 0.25%.

Yeah, this was something I touched about elsewhere, where Bitcoin has never, not ever, not once, went below the ATH of the previous cycle. If this happens, and that's really not far away from current levels, then we can say with more certainty that the "Bitcoin cycle" as we know it no longer exists.

It also appears that it is not only America is planning rate hikes. The United Kingdom were the first to hike their rates from 0.1% to 0.25%.

This somehow flew past me. Rest of the EU's been going deep into 0 or negative rates since the onset of Covid in an effort to try and get people to spend.

[bbc.reporter]

@buwaytress. Are you implying the comedy stock to flow cycle? I have a conspiracy theory on that hehehe. What if stock to flow was created only to give the community something to believe in. It might be really nothing but a part of iFinex, Bitfinex, Tether’s print and pump operation. I cannot prove this, however, stock to flow is something to be skeptical about.

[DaveF]

Real large scale investors HATE uncertainty.  Stocks / bonds / BTC / crypto does not matter. Once they have a clear view of what the Fed plan is and how some other things change is when you see action in the markets. Up or down. You will always have the small retail inventors (Us) and the larger investors who are public (Microstrategy / Saylor) but the real big money, those who can move a billion in and out of a market. They wait till they are sure.

There might be some other players out there, but the big silent ones, in all markets are usually very very smart and very very quiet and don't make a move until they are very very sure.

-Dave

[bbc.reporter]

@DaveF. If the real large scale investors hate uncertainty then can we speculate that they have sold their stocks or bitcoin to hold safely in cash to wait for the next opportunity where there is certainty?

I speculate that this is what they did. Also, it is the end of the year, institutional investors want their bonuses besides also wanting to end the year with profit.

[buwaytress]

@buwaytress. Are you implying the comedy stock to flow cycle? I have a conspiracy theory on that hehehe. What if stock to flow was created only to give the community something to believe in. It might be really nothing but a part of iFinex, Bitfinex, Tether’s print and pump operation. I cannot prove this, however, stock to flow is something to be skeptical about.

Me? Nah, not really, and I do gain quite a bit of entertainment from s2f related stuff, and gotta give credit where it's due, really, as there really hasn't been any model that's come close in terms of accuracy. Would really like to see some updates on where his plotlines will be in 2022 now that Nov/Dec have invalidated the model in quite a big way.

The "community" -- both sides of the divide -- will always have something to hold on to, and something to chew on while the gristle of day-to-day Bitcoin markets continues.

Go out and gather some evidence for your theories. Speculation sub-thread always needs love

[bbc.reporter]

@buwaytress. Hehehe I do not know where to begin. However, many of the users say I am antagonizer, I am really not. I support Tether’s disruption of the traditional banking system in hyperdollarization. Read my latest reply in Big Short thread hehe. Tether is doing it in El Salvador and it appears it will be doing it in Myanmar. I also speculate in Grenada and surrounding jurisdictions through Justin Sun.

[buwaytress]

@buwaytress. Hehehe I do not know where to begin. However, many of the users say I am antagonizer, I am really not. I support Tether’s disruption of the traditional banking system in hyperdollarization. Read my latest reply in Big Short thread hehe. Tether is doing it in El Salvador and it appears it will be doing it in Myanmar. I also speculate in Grenada and surrounding jurisdictions through Justin Sun.

Get all your known points of truth (I decline to say fact heh). Line them up, and use them to back up your theory. The best conspiracy theories -- at least, the most entertaining ones -- have plenty of public evidence to back them up. Remember Tether-related Spoofy from a few years ago? Never really proven without doubt, but highly engrossing reads because they used a whole lot of charts to proof Spoofy was a thing.

Don't get hurt by people calling you antagoniser. I probably have myself at some points kicked out at you. It's fine. Make your case, don't just present it. I appreciate all points of view, I appreciate even more "attacks" on Bitcoin. I'm happiest when the FUD is thick and the bears are vocal. I actually worry when everything's rosy on the horizon when it comes to Bitcoin.

El Salvador, Myanmar, Grenada? The former experimented with dollarisation and failed, the others I can't say enough, but they sought to paper over the widening cracks in fundamental economic issues. Taking off the dollar band aid and strapping on Bitcoin or other crypto isn't healing the wound.

[davis196]

I speculate if the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes causes the American economy to begin going into a depression similar to 2008, I reckon we might witness bitcoin dump below the previous all time high for the first time. I am not certain of this, however, bitcoin has never pumped as strongly as the bull markets of 2013 and 2017.

It also appears that it is not only America is planning rate hikes. The United Kingdom were the first to hike their rates from 0.1% to 0.25%.

How the hell can interest rate hike cause a depression similar to the 2008 depression?
The 2008 depression was caused by a gigantic real estate/mortgage bubble and the banks/hedge funds going out of control with their speculative investment decisions.
Nah.The Federal reserve and the other central banks will begin fighting the high inflation levels,by increasing the interest rates and lowering the amount bond purchases.
That's what all economy/finance books are teaching-inflation can be lowered by raising the interest rates and less bond purchases made by the central banks on the financial markets.This will cause the overall circulating money supply to shrink,which is supposed to reduce the inflation.
I don't know how this will impact the price of Bitcoin.Maybe there will be a bear market in 2022,or maybe there will be more BTC adoption pumping the BTC price to 70-100K USD in 2022.

[Poker Player]

How the hell can interest rate hike cause a depression similar to the 2008 depression?

I don't think it will cause it, but by making it more difficult to finance companies, many of which are overly doped, it may start a snowball effect.

The 2008 depression was caused by a gigantic real estate/mortgage bubble and the banks/hedge funds going out of control with their speculative investment decisions.
pumping the BTC price to 70-100K USD in 2022.

Do you think that a lot has changed since then and that we are better off now?

Nah.The Federal reserve and the other central banks will begin fighting the high inflation levels,by increasing the interest rates and lowering the amount bond purchases.
That's what all economy/finance books are teaching-inflation can be lowered by raising the interest rates and less bond purchases made by the central banks on the financial markets.This will cause the overall circulating money supply to shrink,which is supposed to reduce the inflation.

Yes, but if there is a stock market crash, they will go back to printing like crazy, it's what happened with the subprime crisis and the only weapon they have with the fiat money system. I think they are now in a catch-22 situation, where if they keep printing they generate more inflation and if they reduce the printing of currency the economy goes down.

I don't know how this will impact the price of Bitcoin.Maybe there will be a bear market in 2022,or maybe there will be more BTC adoption pumping the BTC price to 70-100K USD in 2022.

Call me an optimist if you want, but I think in the long run Bitcoin is going to come out a clear winner, even if we are not going to have the exponential returns of the first 10 years.

[bbc.reporter]

I speculate if the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes causes the American economy to begin going into a depression similar to 2008, I reckon we might witness bitcoin dump below the previous all time high for the first time. I am not certain of this, however, bitcoin has never pumped as strongly as the bull markets of 2013 and 2017.

It also appears that it is not only America is planning rate hikes. The United Kingdom were the first to hike their rates from 0.1% to 0.25%.

How the hell can interest rate hike cause a depression similar to the 2008 depression?
The 2008 depression was caused by a gigantic real estate/mortgage bubble and the banks/hedge funds going out of control with their speculative investment decisions.
Nah.The Federal reserve and the other central banks will begin fighting the high inflation levels,by increasing the interest rates and lowering the amount bond purchases.
That's what all economy/finance books are teaching-inflation can be lowered by raising the interest rates and less bond purchases made by the central banks on the financial markets.This will cause the overall circulating money supply to shrink,which is supposed to reduce the inflation.
I don't know how this will impact the price of Bitcoin.Maybe there will be a bear market in 2022,or maybe there will be more BTC adoption pumping the BTC price to 70-100K USD in 2022.

Do your research. It is when interest rates are increased when the beginning of an economic depression begins. The interest rates hikes before the housing bubble began on 2005. They made it from below 2% to over 4%. Without cheap money, leverage was curbed and everything collapsed. It was only when the bubble pop occured on 2007-2008 that the Federal Reserve decided to lower it again to bring cheap money in to pump the economy.

Also, bitcoin adoption? I shake my head hehe. It is bitcoin speculation. You do not speculate that what brought bitcoin to $60k was leverage?

[Betwrong]

~ Also, bitcoin adoption? I shake my head hehe. It is bitcoin speculation. You do not speculate that what brought bitcoin to $60k was leverage?

What about possible future leverage? What if people that are buying BTC at $60k+ are betting on the wide Bitcoin adoption in the future? I think they believe that with much wider adoption the price will be much higher. And I don't think they are delusional.

[bbc.reporter]

@Betwrong. I am quite certain that those whales who are using leverage to pump bitcoin to another all time high is not betting on bitcoin’s wide adoption hehe. They are betting that they can get more fiat after they dump. Fiat that they will use to buy cryptocoins on leverage again. It has always been like this while we are tricked to think that the reason for the pump is adoption.

[Betwrong]

@Betwrong. I am quite certain that those whales who are using leverage to pump bitcoin to another all time high is not betting on bitcoin’s wide adoption hehe. They are betting that they can get more fiat after they dump. Fiat that they will use to buy cryptocoins on leverage again. It has always been like this while we are tricked to think that the reason for the pump is adoption.

Well, I think it goes both ways(at least). If there were no adoption on the horizon, the price of BTC would be always going down, and the spikes those people expecting to dump during, would never appeared.

I've been always wondering, what people really mean when they call Bitcoin "only an object of speculation"? I mean, for how long it can be such a thing? Normally, such projects fail within 3-4 years max. And Bitcoin is here for so long because many people believe that it will be very useful in the future.

[cr1776]

I speculate if the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes causes the American economy to begin going into a depression similar to 2008, I reckon we might witness bitcoin dump below the previous all time high for the first time. I am not certain of this, however, bitcoin has never pumped as strongly as the bull markets of 2013 and 2017.

It also appears that it is not only America is planning rate hikes. The United Kingdom were the first to hike their rates from 0.1% to 0.25%.

How the hell can interest rate hike cause a depression similar to the 2008 depression?
The 2008 depression was caused by a gigantic real estate/mortgage bubble and the banks/hedge funds going out of control with their speculative investment decisions.
Nah.The Federal reserve and the other central banks will begin fighting the high inflation levels,by increasing the interest rates and lowering the amount bond purchases.
That's what all economy/finance books are teaching-inflation can be lowered by raising the interest rates and less bond purchases made by the central banks on the financial markets.This will cause the overall circulating money supply to shrink,which is supposed to reduce the inflation.
I don't know how this will impact the price of Bitcoin.Maybe there will be a bear market in 2022,or maybe there will be more BTC adoption pumping the BTC price to 70-100K USD in 2022.

The 2008 depression was caused by gigantic, monopolistic government involvement in private decisions so that private actors no longer were allowed to use good judgement in evaluating the credit risk of some borrowers.  Then at that point, they needed to unload these bad mortgages and so they did.  The White House had called on Congress to pass legislation to regulate it more every year from 2001 through 2008 and yet Congress required companies to lend to unqualified buyers.

The current Congress and administration are calling for similar reforms in the name of "equity" - a notoriously amorphous, subjective, and evil term that is the opposite of equality under the law - which may eventually have similar consequences.

[bbc.reporter]

@Betwrong. I am quite certain that those whales who are using leverage to pump bitcoin to another all time high is not betting on bitcoin’s wide adoption hehe. They are betting that they can get more fiat after they dump. Fiat that they will use to buy cryptocoins on leverage again. It has always been like this while we are tricked to think that the reason for the pump is adoption.

Well, I think it goes both ways(at least). If there were no adoption on the horizon, the price of BTC would be always going down, and the spikes those people expecting to dump during, would never appeared.

I've been always wondering, what people really mean when they call Bitcoin "only an object of speculation"? I mean, for how long it can be such a thing? Normally, such projects fail within 3-4 years max. And Bitcoin is here for so long because many people believe that it will be very useful in the future.

Adoption has done nothing for an overleveraged market that market makers have taken from $3000 to $60k within 2 years through use of leverage. Read this article published in protos.com. It shows that 70% of all USDT went to market makers and whales and much of these went to Alameda Research, a market maker and cryptofund of Sam Bankman-Fried.



As Protos reported in August, market makers Alameda Research (spearheaded by crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried) and Cumberland Global (a subsidiary of trading giant DRW) are still the biggest fish in Tether markets.

Together, Alameda and Cumberland received at least $60.3 billion in USDT across the time period analyzed, equal to around 55% of all outbound volume — ever.

Source https://protos.com/tether-papers-crypto-stablecoin-usdt-investigation-analysis/

[Betwrong]

@Betwrong. I am quite certain that those whales who are using leverage to pump bitcoin to another all time high is not betting on bitcoin’s wide adoption hehe. They are betting that they can get more fiat after they dump. Fiat that they will use to buy cryptocoins on leverage again. It has always been like this while we are tricked to think that the reason for the pump is adoption.

Well, I think it goes both ways(at least). If there were no adoption on the horizon, the price of BTC would be always going down, and the spikes those people expecting to dump during, would never appeared.

I've been always wondering, what people really mean when they call Bitcoin "only an object of speculation"? I mean, for how long it can be such a thing? Normally, such projects fail within 3-4 years max. And Bitcoin is here for so long because many people believe that it will be very useful in the future.

Adoption has done nothing for an overleveraged market that market makers have taken from $3000 to $60k within 2 years through use of leverage. Read this article published in protos.com. It shows that 70% of all USDT went to market makers and whales and much of these went to Alameda Research, a market maker and cryptofund of Sam Bankman-Fried.



As Protos reported in August, market makers Alameda Research (spearheaded by crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried) and Cumberland Global (a subsidiary of trading giant DRW) are still the biggest fish in Tether markets.

Together, Alameda and Cumberland received at least $60.3 billion in USDT across the time period analyzed, equal to around 55% of all outbound volume — ever.

Source https://protos.com/tether-papers-crypto-stablecoin-usdt-investigation-analysis/

To be honest, I'm not a big expert in stable coins, and I don't fully understand their impact on the crypto market. I remember people were saying about Dec 2017's jump to $19k that it had something to do with "Tether scam". Is this that kind of thing?

If you could explain it in simple words whether those people were right or wrong, it would be amazing. Because since BTC hit a new ATH, much higher then back in Dec 2017, with no new Tether, I think they were wrong. But again, I'm not a big expert in the field.

[bbc.reporter]

@Betwrong. No new Tether? How much was Tether’s market capitalization during the beginning of 2021 and compare this to the market capitalization of 2022. I am not certain, however, iFinex, Bitfinex, Tether might have printed more USDT in 2021 than in all years of its existence.

I am not an expert also but a simple human with a brain should be suspicious of a stablecoin that is not audited. Can we trust Tether that it has not fractionalized?

[Betwrong]

@Betwrong. No new Tether? How much was Tether’s market capitalization during the beginning of 2021 and compare this to the market capitalization of 2022. I am not certain, however, iFinex, Bitfinex, Tether might have printed more USDT in 2021 than in all years of its existence.

I am not an expert also but a simple human with a brain should be suspicious of a stablecoin that is not audited. Can we trust Tether that it has not fractionalized?

I can see a lot of stable coins, apart from Tether, on CoinMarketCap. What I don't understand is how exactly(or, in what way) coins like USD Coin(USDC), Binance USD(BUSD), TerraUSD(UST) and the likes affect the price of Bitocin, and, subsequently, the price of other coins?

I mean, there are articles with such words:

One academic study found that a particular player on the Bitfinex exchange uses newly printed Tether to purchase Bitcoin when Bitcoin prices fall, to support Bitcoin’s price.

but I can't understand how it really works. They mean any coin's price can be supported this way, or what?