Supercycle or Halving cycle still?

[Poker Player]

The supercycle theory as formulated by Dan Held is not going to hold true, at least not this year. We should be clearly higher in price. This is not to say that the theory does not have a certain logic (as they all do) and that it may happen in the future.

As for where we are, we are in uncharted territory. No one quite knows what is going to happen to the price in 2022, what is clear is that the bitcoin price is behaving differently than previous cycles.

[ralle14]

I want to say halving cycle since it's hard to set expectations year after year and imo it's better to have that slow and stable growth rather than going back to what we've experienced a few years back.

On the other hand, I think a supercycle is inevitable since we're still within arms reach of another new high and we've seen how fast bitcoin recovered back then so it's only a matter of time until we see another price increase.

[aoluain]

What exactly is a supercycle though?

Is it that the market constantly rises? or is it that there wont be a notable
prolonged Bear market?

I'm leaning toward the former in my understanding, a supercycle of bullish run, and somewhat just months of bearish and then the price will continue to go on again.

Ah so the first quarter of 2022 is really the key to whether this supercycle manifests
itself IMO

Its really hard to call whether we will stay in this halving cycle or whether we
are in a supercycle, maybe if we were hovering around the ₱100,000k now I
would be leaning towards a supercycle ... but we are not near the $100,000
mark yet...

The market is still like 10 years old, data is very young and we can't extrapolate anything from it.

We just rely on the last halving and it's subsequent bull run in 2017. Sure it might have been repeating itself every 4 years, But we can't still say and we can't predict how this run will go next year.

Yea I suppose thats what is happening, we are comparing/expecting this year
to be like previous halvings.

[bittraffic]

Yea I suppose thats what is happening, we are comparing/expecting this year
to be like previous halvings.

It was also in Dec 2018 where the bear market started which took so long that they call it "long winter market" that's extended to a year of a bear market. And now winter is coming once again which if this is just a halving cycle only, the price by Jan 2022 will also start crumbling.  To be optimistic in a way, because miners only get about 6.25 every block. It's going to create a very low supply for all that demands BTC too.

I want to create a new thread for this question as well but let me just insert it here in case someone will be willing to give thier views about it.
If next year the bear market starts, will it be the same as the last that was extended up to a year?

[Wind_FURY]

The supercycle theory as formulated by Dan Held is not going to hold true, at least not this year. We should be clearly higher in price. This is not to say that the theory does not have a certain logic (as they all do) and that it may happen in the future.

Can you show a chart showing a super cycle by Dan Held? Because a super cycle should be the bull cycle of Bitcoin from the very beginning like this chart, https://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/

“At least not this year” is a wrong phrase in talking about the super cycle. It’s either still happenning, or not anymore.

As for where we are, we are in uncharted territory. No one quite knows what is going to happen to the price in 2022, what is clear is that the bitcoin price is behaving differently than previous cycles.

Bull or bear, Bitcoin is in a super cycle. Don’t believe me? Zoom out.

[tertius993]

I suspect neither is quite right.  See this thread which I started in the Speculation sub-forum on comparing the halvings: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0

Because the vast majority of coins have already been mined (88% mined at the point of the 2020 halving) and only a tiny proportion will be mined in each epoch (~7% in the current epoch) the impact of each halving will become progressively smaller and take longer to play out - a bit like a wave decaying over time … the wave continues for a looong time but the peaks and troughs flatten out and move further apart.

[bittraffic]

Bull or bear, Bitcoin is in a super cycle. Don’t believe me? Zoom out.

Zooming out is where we can see that it's not still at the bottom unlike in June last year when indicators are signaling we have reached the bottom. The dip today looks like it's not yet which some speculators are actually saying the price could be up by June this year as well or it may extend to a year like in 2018 bear market. Is the bear cycle also repeating?

I hope to see them wrong because I don't wanna send my coins from the cold wallet to the exchange anymore.  

[romero121]

Bull or bear, Bitcoin is in a super cycle. Don’t believe me? Zoom out.

Zooming out is where we can see that it's not still at the bottom unlike in June last year when indicators are signaling we have reached the bottom. The dip today looks like it's not yet which some speculators are actually saying the price could be up by June this year as well or it may extend to a year like in 2018 bear market. Is the bear cycle also repeating?

Due to the large scale adoption in the global market this discussion about supercycle/halving cycle have existed. As in the OP, after every halving the market used to turn bullish. At times the market change happens a little delayed or soon after the halving. A market without bearish move is something like a manipulated one. As of now everything is on good phase, so we can expect the market to be stable for some time and turn bearish before making a big jump for the upcoming halving.

[Zilon]

A halving cycle is obviously expected but we can anticipate for a better bull run compared to the previous year. But for a market to remain valid it must have it's high demand season and it's high supply season which regulates the movement bod price above the previous highs or below it's previous lows or better still revolving around a certain price range. But definitely we can't expect a super cycle

[jossiel]

The dip today looks like it's not yet which some speculators are actually saying the price could be up by June this year as well or it may extend to a year like in 2018 bear market. Is the bear cycle also repeating?

We will gonna find that out soon. If we're going to have bloody months then that would confirm the bear market is in but as long as we're staying above $40k then nothing special about the bear market.

People are exaggerating the corrections as it seems really disappointing and thinking that it's already the hellish bear market that we don't like to see. But just as the 2018 bear market, it would be seen likely from 2nd-4th quarter.

[franky1]

halving 2012- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $1.2k)
halving 2016- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $20k)
halving 2020- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $69k)

we have passed the super cycle and now in the slow volatile zone.

that said looking at the multiplier per cycle. we should see a 7-8x factor of the $20k ATH during the 2020-2024 halving periods

[odolvlobo]

Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving...

That statement is not correct, or it is too vague or needs too many qualifications to mean anything useful. End of story.

[AakZaki]

continued adoption will indeed greatly affect bitcoin, let alone more and more bitcoin users. many are turning their investments to bitcoin. this further adds to the volume of the bitcoin marketcap. The same cycle might happen again but with a bigger wave, the ATH $100k is still unreached and that price will certainly determine where bitcoin will go. bear markets always occur and then followed by a tremendous bull market.

[doomloop]

The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?  I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.

I am afraid that only time could answer for this. Because, no technical analysis will be versatile enough to predict accurately about what is going to happen in near future of bitcoin market. There are equal possibilities for both bearish and bull market to happen here after even I agree with you that awareness on bitcoin is high these days which means mass adoption is happening everywhere still we cannot predict anything against whale's manipulations.

So, instead of having any kind of assumption about the upcoming trend, I guess it would be always better to act according to the market situations so that you will not lose but you will get chances to make use of market trend.

[TravelMug]

continued adoption will indeed greatly affect bitcoin, let alone more and more bitcoin users. many are turning their investments to bitcoin. this further adds to the volume of the bitcoin marketcap. The same cycle might happen again but with a bigger wave, the ATH $100k is still unreached and that price will certainly determine where bitcoin will go. bear markets always occur and then followed by a tremendous bull market.

The goal is the mass adoption and $100k is more possible to happen if more people started to adopt and support cryptocurrency. The cycle continues either its supercycle or halving cycle it doesn't matter since we are still heading to the top. Yes, bear market is always here since there's no straight way going up, we should climb slowly but surely, bull market will happen again very soon.

But that very soon might happen after the next schedule halving?

For me it will be difficult to reach another all time high again, unless this super cycle come into fruition. But what we can see now is a bear market, not full blown, but I will say that we are in the way already. It's good that we will see some bounce throughout every quarter.

But it could be a slow and hard grind and we might see fluctuation every month that's why it's going to be hard for another all time high.

[traderethereum]

continued adoption will indeed greatly affect bitcoin, let alone more and more bitcoin users. many are turning their investments to bitcoin. this further adds to the volume of the bitcoin marketcap. The same cycle might happen again but with a bigger wave, the ATH $100k is still unreached and that price will certainly determine where bitcoin will go. bear markets always occur and then followed by a tremendous bull market.

The goal is the mass adoption and $100k is more possible to happen if more people started to adopt and support cryptocurrency. The cycle continues either its supercycle or halving cycle it doesn't matter since we are still heading to the top. Yes, bear market is always here since there's no straight way going up, we should climb slowly but surely, bull market will happen again very soon.

But that very soon might happen after the next schedule halving?

For me it will be difficult to reach another all time high again, unless this super cycle come into fruition. But what we can see now is a bear market, not full blown, but I will say that we are in the way already. It's good that we will see some bounce throughout every quarter.

But it could be a slow and hard grind and we might see fluctuation every month that's why it's going to be hard for another all time high.

It will happen before or after the next halving because bitcoin has now become popular and many people have started adopting bitcoin and using bitcoin as their new investment.
It will have a massive buying from people, especially those who see the benefits of bitcoin to them so they will start buying at a low price.
But I agree with @TravelMug that we are not easy to see another all time high as the gap of the price now is at $25k and it is not easy to pump the price back on the last ATH.
Bitcoin will reach $100k in the future, and we can wait for that while we can follow the bitcoin journey, up and down of the price and enjoy it.

[pooya87]

But I agree with @TravelMug that we are not easy to see another all time high as the gap of the price now is at $25k and it is not easy to pump the price back on the last ATH.

Not so long ago price was stuck in $3k range and people were saying the ATH ($20k at the time) is not easy to reach since it is far away. Price went out of that range and without "pumping" reached $20k and surpassed it to reach $70k ATH. Now the same story is being repeated but at a 10x size.
The thing is just because there is a pause in the rally it doesn't mean it is any harder to reach a new ATH than before.

[jaberwock]

For me it will be difficult to reach another all time high again, unless this super cycle come into fruition. But what we can see now is a bear market, not full blown, but I will say that we are in the way already.

Even I agree with you on not a full fledged bearish market, I do not think that it would be too difficult for a market like bitcoin to have another ATH from here. Because, we have seen quick bounce back many times and that way bitcoin may get into bullish and then may test a new ATH at any time.

The thing is just because there is a pause in the rally it doesn't mean it is any harder to reach a new ATH than before.

Bitcoin is strongly being held around $40k levels for more than 2 weeks of time and we have seen market is turning up from that support level which must be enough witness about the strength of market to stay above $40k levels; this will definitely launch upward which must be toward $100k in near future.

[Ararbermas]

That's what it is always wherein a common cycle every year. Indeed it keeps improving amd getting matured because of adoption as well that keep increasing.. No one can stop it as long as there's still a lot of people keep believing how bitcoin very optimistic and legitimate..it's unstoppable despite of the situation. And everyone knows about it since the beginning..

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving...

That statement is not correct, or it is too vague or needs too many qualifications to mean anything useful. End of story.

But Bitcoin always did go to a new ATH as a path to price discovery after each halving cycle. Probably because of the halving itself, and probably because of a few other circumstances, like BRRR-money printing and other inflationary policies by the Federal Reserve/Central Banks.